Post- Training Camp 53-Man Roster Projection

[kungfoodude]

15 hours ago, CRA said:

You can force feed the ball to all sorts of old vets in the slot and they will get 50 yards on a losing team.  People are confusing stats with being good.   Stats often lie.   AT isn’t good.  AT is a backup role player we choose to start and over target. 

Renfow realistically projects to be what AT should have been here’s A random role player you see on very select downs.  Ricky Prohel. 

Brother, on players with over 40 targets in 2024 he had the highest catch percentage on the team. He was 2nd highest in 2023(behind only Hubbard).

Yes he is slow as dirt but they are targeting him because he actually does catch the ball.

That is literally why he beats out other players here. He is dependable.

[PNW_PantherMan]

15 minutes ago, CRA said:

I mean, Ricky Prohel had a significant role on that 2003 team.

[LinvilleGorge]

15 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Brother, on players with over 40 targets in 2024 he had the highest catch percentage on the team. He was 2nd highest in 2023(behind only Hubbard).

Yes he is slow as dirt but they are targeting him because he actually does catch the ball.

That is literally why he beats out other players here. He is dependable.

AT is still a solid possession receiver. He just shouldn't be a starter at this point in his career. The fact that we had to have him as our #1 option wasn't an indictment of him, it was an indictment of our front office and overall receiver room. CRA just jumping the gun and already getting mad about Thielen eating into Renfrow's snap count. LOL 

[kungfoodude]

6 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

AT is still a solid possession receiver. He just shouldn't be a starter at this point in his career. The fact that we had to have him as our #1 option wasn't an indictment of him, it was an indictment of our front office and overall receiver room. CRA just jumping the gun and already getting mad about Thielen eating into Renfrow's snap count. LOL 

Yeah, 100%. 

We SHOULDN'T be in the position where he is getting this volume. 

The hope is with Coker/XL having a year of development and TMac coming in, that should spread things around and lessen that raw need.

In theory....

[CRA]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

AT is still a solid possession receiver. He just shouldn't be a starter at this point in his career. The fact that we had to have him as our #1 option wasn't an indictment of him, it was an indictment of our front office and overall receiver room. CRA just jumping the gun and already getting mad about Thielen eating into Renfrow's snap count. LOL 

I mean, let the record show.....I have long been on the AT rant before the Renfrow project was even a possibility.  I have been on the big 3 for Bryce since the day he was drafted.  slot, TE, and rec RB.   I still contend we are building an O for someone that isn't BY....so what's the point.  Pick a direction.  The Carolina No Man's Land thing is just my ultimat pet peeve. 

and while I 100% am ALL IN  on my guys comeback, I am on record Renfrow doesn't fit what a BY O needs either.   He is just a low ceiling chain mover.  BY needs a playmaker at slot more so than any other WR position. 

 

[CRA]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

Brother, on players with over 40 targets in 2024 he had the highest catch percentage on the team. He was 2nd highest in 2023(behind only Hubbard).

Yes he is slow as dirt but they are targeting him because he actually does catch the ball.

That is literally why he beats out other players here. He is dependable.

there is not a post in huddle history where I discredit AT's hands. 

slot is the easiest spot on the field to get separation and AT can't.  WHOEVER you put there, pending they aren't horrific, is going to be a statistical leader on the team given we have Bryce Young playing QB. 

 

[PNW_PantherMan]

35 minutes ago, CRA said:

there is not a post in huddle history where I discredit AT's hands. 

slot is the easiest spot on the field to get separation and AT can't.  WHOEVER you put there, pending they aren't horrific, is going to be a statistical leader on the team given we have Bryce Young playing QB. 

 

It's about production.  Not about statistical leaders necessarily.  And separation doesn't mean as much since its basically 2 hand touch in the secondary now.

Edited 23 hours ago by PNW_PantherMan

[CRA]

10 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

It's about production.  And separation doesn't mean as much since its basically 2 hand touch in the secondary now.

Carolina's offense doesn't produce.  Part of that, is we have WRs that can't get open and can't do anything with the ball in their hands.   

We live in 3 WR sets.  And we choose to put an old, slow, no YAC guy there paired w/ our weaker armed QB.  We make life hard.  If you can't get open or make a play in the slot....you frankly have aged out.  Doesn't matter how good your hands are.  It's a lot of empty yards and punts by your O. 

[PNW_PantherMan]

3 minutes ago, CRA said:

Carolina's offense doesn't produce.  Part of that, is we have WRs that can't get open and can't do anything with the ball in their hands.   

We live in 3 WR sets.  And we choose to put an old, slow, no YAC guy there paired w/ our weaker armed QB.  We make life hard. 

Deontae Johnson and XL were getting open last year.  They just couldn't catch the ball.  You're making this complicated to make AT fit the container you've made for him.

Shorter routes don't need as much separation, because the defense isn't allowed to touch you.  If you catch the ball, in 1 on 1 you are basically unstoppable.  Ricky Prohel was going dad mode on a bunch of 4-3 defenses 20 years ago.  The game has changed so much since then, I don't see how its relevant.

[csx]

17 minutes ago, CRA said:

Carolina's offense doesn't produce.  Part of that, is we have WRs that can't get open and can't do anything with the ball in their hands.   

We live in 3 WR sets.  And we choose to put an old, slow, no YAC guy there paired w/ our weaker armed QB.  We make life hard.  If you can't get open or make a play in the slot....you frankly have aged out.  Doesn't matter how good your hands are.  It's a lot of empty yards and punts by your O. 

Thielen's yards per reception was higher last year than any of Renfrows career.  His per game productivity last year as an old slow receiver the same as Renfrows 1 good season.

These things are easy to find. 

[CRA]

10 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

Deontae Johnson and XL were getting open last year.  They just couldn't catch the ball.  You're making this complicated to make AT fit the container you've made for him.

Shorter routes don't need as much separation, because the defense isn't allowed to touch you.  If you catch the ball, in 1 on 1 you are basically unstoppable.  Ricky Prohel was going dad mode on a bunch of 4-3 defenses 20 years ago.  The game has changed so much since then, I don't see how its relevant.

I simply acknowledge BY is the QB.  And just like we did when we drafted him.....the type O you would need to setup around him for success was always pretty simple.  But we have done virtually the opposite. 

XL dropping some passes isn't why we were ranked the 32nd O and 30th passing the past 2 years. 

*Ricky Prohel was brought up only in regards to role function he served on the team.  Niche/specialist.   He wasn't eating up the snaps in the O.    AT should have a similar snap %. People could MAUL Ricky Prohel and put hands all over him.   We got to the Super Bowl in part because we were mauling guys (our slot CB).   You can't do that now.  AT has a MUCH easier life and still can't get open.  Or run.   

If you live in 3 WR sets, with a weak armed QB, and you choose to put someone who can't get open or run in the slot.......well, your are going to have a weak pass O.  That's by design IMO.

 

[CRA]

2 minutes ago, csx said:

Thielen's yards per reception was higher last year than any of Renfrows career.  His per game productivity last year as an old slow receiver the same as Renfrows 1 good season.

These things are easy to find. 

This is about getting open and YAC....and the QB we have.  You basically are just highlighting average depth when targeted vs 2 players. .  And yeah, I often say AT is a small slow reliable TE in terms of what he does for us.   That's what he is. 

 I think a couple of you want to make this into a Renfrow argument.   I'm a Renfrow fan.  Renfrow does not check the box of what a BY O needs either at the slot.  Renfrow just a niche roleplayer at this level. 

it's easy to look up how horrific AT is with the ball in his hands and in terms of getting open.....and it's also easy to look up what a low ceiling of an offense the steady AT diet produces w/ BY. 

[kungfoodude]

7 minutes ago, CRA said:

This is about getting open and YAC....and the QB we have.  You basically are just highlighting average depth when targeted vs 2 players. .  And yeah, I often say AT is a small slow reliable TE in terms of what he does for us.   That's what he is. 

 I think a couple of you want to make this into a Renfrow argument.   I'm a Renfrow fan.  Renfrow does not check the box of what a BY O needs either at the slot.  Renfrow just a niche roleplayer at this level. 

it's easy to look up how horrific AT is with the ball in his hands and in terms of getting open.....and it's also easy to look up what a low ceiling of an offense the steady AT diet produces w/ BY. 

Of those 40+ target guys for YAC/Rec, AT was only behind J. Sanders, Hubbard and Coker for 2024.

In 2023 it was Hubbard, M. Sanders and Mingo. 

So, in a lot of ways, it has been the WR's(Chark, XL, Diontae, D. Moore, etc) that haven't been producing those YAC.

Not claiming AT is a YAC guy at all but, as so many of us keep saying, it's not AT that's the issue. It's the guys that are supposed to be outproducing him.

[CRA]

54 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Of those 40+ target guys for YAC/Rec, AT was only behind J. Sanders, Hubbard and Coker for 2024.

In 2023 it was Hubbard, M. Sanders and Mingo. 

So, in a lot of ways, it has been the WR's(Chark, XL, Diontae, D. Moore, etc) that haven't been producing those YAC.

Not claiming AT is a YAC guy at all but, as so many of us keep saying, it's not AT that's the issue. It's the guys that are supposed to be outproducing him.

ESPN analytics has AT with the 135th YAC rating out of 149 WRs in the NFL last year.  Dead last in Carolina.

274 out of 312 the year before.  Dead last in Carolina. 

NFL Receiver Scores - ESPN Analytics

it is a AT thing.  Despite being bad, AT actually occupies the WR spot where YAC production is most easily generated by players.  Should be easier for AT than XL on the outside (in a Dave O w/ BY)

The most productive WR position in a Bryce Young O likely SHOULD be the slot.  Not out wide.  Which is why you don't want AT dominating it.  Because he can't do anything with it accept meet the floor of plays.    An ideal BY passing O would favor the slot, TE, and rec RB given what his arm is and how he plays the game (which we all largely agreed the short quick game was our direction when we drafted BY). 

Every spot and role is different based on scheme and QB.  Slot w/ BY should be a YAC centric spot.