Does Bryce deserve credit for game-winning drives?

[TN05]

I decided to do a statistical analysis to find out. I used Pro Football Reference's list of his game-winning drives (GWD) for this.

tl:dr; Bryce deserves no credit for two games, partial credit for either two or three games, and broadly deserves credit for the rest. Only 2 of the GWD are of no credit to him at all.

2023

• Week 7 vs. Houston (15-13)

  • Full-game statline - 22/31 (70.9%), 235 passing yards, 1 touchdown

  • Final drive - Drive began on the Carolina 9 yard line with 6:17 left in the 4th quarter, down 13-12. Bryce accounted for 55 total yards on the drive (50 passing, 5 rushing); Chuba ran for 13, and the Texans gave up 28 yards on penalties.

  • Does Bryce deserve credit? - Yes. Bryce accounted for all offensive yardage before reaching the Texans 30.

• Week 14 vs. Atlanta (9-7)

  • Full-game statline - 18/24 (75%), 167 passing yards

  • Final drive - Drive began on the Carolina 5 yard line with 7:35 left in the 4th quarter, down 7-6. Bryce threw for 68 yards on the drive and kneeled three times when in field goal range.

  • Does Bryce deserve credit? - Yes. Bryce accounted for all but 20 yards on the drive.

2024

• Week 9 vs. New Orleans (23-22)

  • Full-game statline - 16/26 (61.5%), 171 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception

  • Final drive - Drive began on the Carolina 34 with 3:25 left in the 4th. Bryce threw for 26 yards, and drew a 22-yard pass interference penalty. Chuba Hubbard scored the game-winning 16-yard touchdown.

  • Does Bryce deserve credit? - Yes. Passing and pass interference accounted for all but 16 yards on the drive.

• Week 10 vs. New York Giants (20-17)

  • Full-game statline - 15/25 (60%), 121 passing yards, 1 touchdown; 30 rushing yards

  • Final drive - Drive began in overtime at the New York 23-yard line immediately after the Giants fumbled the first snap. Chuba ran three times. Bryce did not throw a pass.

  • Does Bryce deserve credit? - No. Bryce literally did nothing on this one due to generous field position in overtime.

• Week 15 vs. Arizona (36-30)

  • Full-game statline - 17/26 (65.4%), 158 passing yards, 1 touchdown; 68 rushing yards, 1 touchdown

  • Final drive - Drive began on the Arizona 49 with 4:11 left in overtime. Chuba ran twice for 49 yards and a touchdown.

  • Does Bryce deserve credit? - No. Bryce literally did nothing on this one.

• Week 17 at Atlanta (44-38)

  • Full-game statline - 25/34 (73.5%), 251 passing yards, 3 touchdowns; 24 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns

  • Final drive - Drive began on the Carolina 30 at the start of overtime. Bryce threw for 56 yards; Miles Sanders scored the game-winning one-yard touchdown.

  • Does Bryce deserve credit? - Yes. Bryce accounted for the vast majority of yards on this drive.

2025

• Week 5 vs. Miami (27-24)

  • Full-game statline - 19/30 (63.3%), 198 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception

  • Final drive - Drive began at the Carolina 17. Bryce completed three passes for 45 yards and a touchdown; there were also three runs for 33 yards by other players

  • Does Bryce deserve credit? - Yes. Bryce accounted for the majority of yards and the game-winning touchdown.

• Week 6 vs. Dallas (30-27)

  • Full-game statline -17/25 (68%), 199 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception

  • Final drive - Final drive began at the Carolina 14 with 6:07 left in the fourth. 37 yards were recorded on the ground, while Bryce threw for 25 yards and drew a 12-yard pass interference penalty.

  • Does Bryce deserve credit? - Partially. No one player stood out on this drive.

• Week 9 at Green Bay (16-13)

  • Full-game statline - 11/20 (55%), 102 passing yards, 1 interception

  • Final drive - Final drive began at the Carolina 29 with 2:28 left in the fourth. Rico recorded 21 rushing yards while Bryce threw for 19 yards.

  • Does Bryce deserve credit? - Equal credit with Rico. Both recorded nearly identical yardage totals.

• Week 11 at Atlanta (30-27)

  • Full-game statline - 31/45 (68.9%), 448 passing yards, 3 touchdowns

  • Final drive - Final drive began at the Carolina 31 with 8:45 left in overtime. Bryce threw one pass to Tommy Tremble for 54 yards. 

  • Does Bryce deserve credit? - Tommy Tremble deserves the most credit here, but Bryce threw the pass.

In conclusion: there's really only two games here he did nothing in. The rest he gets at least some or a majority of the credit.

[d-dave]

Such a loser stat.  Don't you know that true Alpha Chads lead their wolfpacks to 70-0 wins all the time!  Real QBs never make mistakes, never had bad games or halves, and all of their perfect throws just WIN the game!

That's how some people sound around here...I find it funny.

Good analysis.  QBs always have gotten an outsized amount of credit for wins and losses, certainly in drives.

[kungfoodude]

I have no problem with existing GWD criteria. I think it's just goofy to apply it to a player attempting to make him seem better than he is without the full picture of their career performances.

[PNW_PantherMan]

Applying flags as positive yards for Bryce is certainly one way to model it.

[ForJimmy]

The guy can be clutch and has the ability to play a complete game. The big question is consistency IMO. 

[NorthTryon]

He does for Sunday with reinjuring ankle being tackled and then his own starting RG stomping it on 4th down. That one counts in a resounding way!

[Donald LaFell]

He deserves credit for the good things and the bad things. I’m thrilled when he does well but there’s been a lot of bad things and not enough good things.

[OldhamA]

22 minutes ago, d-dave said:

Such a loser stat.  Don't you know that true Alpha Chads lead their wolfpacks to 70-0 wins all the time!  Real QBs never make mistakes, never had bad games or halves, and all of their perfect throws just WIN the game!

That's how some people sound around here...I find it funny.

Good analysis.  QBs always have gotten an outsized amount of credit for wins and losses, certainly in drives.

Nice strawman, Dave.

[d-dave]

4 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

Nice strawman, Dave.

I've been doing it too much, I have to stop.  I find it funny  because it reads like far too many people here...

[ImfromClayton]

I appreciate you putting the work into this. It's one I struggle with. I do think we have some games where, if he plays better, were not in a position to need a game winning drive. 

I also think he's had some games, like Sunday against the dirty birds, for which without the dude, we lose the game. period. 

Part of the reason he has so many of these is due to the opportunities. His rookie year we sucked out loud. We could only really win by scoring before the buzzer. Last year was more of the same. That defensive unit last year with no DB was abysmal. 

Now that we finally aren't one of the worst defenses in football, we are seeing a lot better results. I do think Bryce was more consistent at the end of last season opposed to this season. 

The next step that we'd all like to see though is when we play a bad team like the saints, and they put 9 guys in the box, Bryce has to make them pay. And then we don't win on a game winning drive, we win by 14, because it's the NFL and you should get punished for putting 9 in the box. 

I still think he's only the guy that can lead us to success for this window of players. I'd like to see us get better at all three levels on defense in the offseason.  We lose very little to free agency. Next year is the year. 

[electro's horse]

I did a huge thread on this.

on two of Bryce’s claimed GWD he didn’t even throw a pass.

one was just a field goal after Daniel jones fumbled on the first play of overtime. 

Edited 1 hour ago by electro's horse

[HaricotVert]

GWD has got to be legitimately stupidest stats to put on a QB

2 lost fumbles and an Int but with the help of a 37yd PI he was under center to get to the winning FG?

 

Miss me with that poo

[L-TownCat]

The better question is should he get credit for playing well 2-3 times a year?

[strato]

44 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

The guy can be clutch and has the ability to play a complete game. The big question is consistency IMO. 

And has been since he followed his best performance in 2023 vs the Packers with being shut out twice to finish the year. 
 

That IS the hurdle that has yet to be cleared.