Carolina Panthers: 6.5 wins (Over -120 | Under +100)

[NAS]

38 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

and losing Icky and losing rico

Yes, and don't think they're convinced this offense can get on track to compete. Dan will need to knock it out of the park this free agency and draft to give this team a chance to have a winning record. 

[SmokinwithWilly]

40 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

and losing Icky and losing rico

And he needs to pull his head out of his ass about calling plays. He doesn't have the talent/ability to be both HC and OC yet and it shows. 

[MHS831]

so much depends on the draft and free agency.  At this point, considering the schedule, I would not bet that we win over 6 games.  

[Navy_football]

A big time standup LB (QB of the defense), improve the pass rush, improve oline depth. Get lucky with injuries. They can win over 6.5 games. Fail in any one of those areas and the bottom falls out pretty quickly. 

[PootieNunu]

6 hours ago, Navy_football said:

A big time standup LB (QB of the defense), improve the pass rush, improve oline depth. Get lucky with injuries. They can win over 6.5 games. Fail in any one of those areas and the bottom falls out pretty quickly. 

Improve OL Depth??

We need a starter at LT and C. Icky is not playing this season and Mays is a FA.

We dont have Rico to channel his inner Beast mode this season either. 

We will see what they cook up but the offense is going to need to take a big step up for us to eclipse the projected win total. 

[MHS831]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47958363/2026-nfl-offseason-ranking-positions-free-agency-draft-class-deep-thin

this basically says we should add an edge (draft or free agency) and a free safety (free agency).  It discourages me from wanting an OT in this draft because he calls them (after the top 2) developmental, and I see it.   Frankly, this changes my strategy for the draft.  To get the best bang for the buck, we need to go ILB or edge in round 1, imo.  

[csx]

16 hours ago, MHS831 said:

so much depends on the draft and free agency.  At this point, considering the schedule, I would not bet that we win over 6 games.  

Why do people keep chicken littling about the schedule? Its the same (technically tiny bit easier) than last season.

[MHS831]

This article (ESPN) got me thinking and I think on paper.  Thought I would share.  This thinking involves realistic cap analysis, needs, the draft, and free agency.  I think it realistically addresses Edge and LB fairly well.  OL (not 2026 so much, but 2027 and beyond looks good).  The free agent S has deep range and coverage skills, something that killed us on third downs last year, imo.  Beyond Edge, LB, S, and OL depth, that is about it.  I took a flyer on DT and WR depth late in the draft, but at CB (Horn, Jackson, Smith-Wade, and Thornton), QB, RB, TE, etc. we are going to rely on undrafted free agents.  No cap room left.

EDGE:  In the $7m per year range, the edge from Atlanta Ebiketie got pressure at a high rate in reduced snaps. With Atlanta adding 2 edge rushers as rookies who seemed to do well (Pearce is one of them--*) but he got pressure in limited snaps at a high rate 16.9% (one in eight pass rush).   He is 27 and played in 384 snaps.  PFF Score of 74.9.  had 2 sacks.  If he had a normal workload, based on his limited play, he would have had about 5 to 6 sacks and about 60 pressures.  However, it is likely he would be rotational here, logging about 500 snaps.  

A lot of this decision depends on how we feel about Princely.  If they like his development, you probably do not draft an Edge in round 1 or maybe even 2 for several reasons (and many may disagree with this logic, but a good GM has long-term vision):  1. That would give you 3 Edge contracts to negotiate in 3-4 years.  2.  Edges take time to develop.  They would peak around 2028.  The Panthers are in "win now" mode, I think.

Mafe (Seahawks, PFF 69.2) is another option, but he is more along the lines of Scourton and Jones II.  He would command a contract in the $10m range.

Kwity Paye (Indianapolis, PFF 68.7) He is about 28 and is expected to sign a deal around $18m per season.  I am not that impressed, but he is considered "above average."  I'd rather have Ebiketie from Atlanta for $10m per season less.

Center:  The center position in the draft is looking better.  There are some short armed OTs (like Parker, Duke, et al) who will project inside (G,C). Personally, I like the Center position in this draft--let Mays walk.  Re-sign Corbett, and draft a C in round 3.  

Linebacker:  I am not sure what we should do here.   I think Morgan will fall in love with Cincinnati's Golday, and we would take him at #51.  Rodriguez (Texas Tech) in round 3 could be a steal.  However, I am not sure that I see value after Styles in round 1.  I think Devin Lloyd will want elite meny and he is not elite--he is good.  He will ask for $15m per season.  Leo Chenel (KC, 75.1 PFF, est. $5m) is a much better option.

Safety:  I think Kam Curl would be a great fit here. (Rams, 2 Ints 87 tackles) he is very versatile. Expected to get between $10m and $12m per year, however.  In the draft, I think they like Bud Clark who should be there in round 4.  Are Moehrig, Ransom, and Simmons enough?  Tony Adams (63.7 PFF) a deep safety known for his range.  He is expected to get a 3-year, $20m deal on the market.

Based on what I am seeing here and the way I am thinking right now on 2/21, here is what I might do:

Free Agency

CAP: I am going to assume we can clear about $50m by restructuring the contracts of Horn, Lewis, Hunt, and Brown and cutting AShawn Robinson.  We could (bold move) extend Ickey Ekwonu--considering his situation, it could be beneficial to him long term, and his guaranteed salary could be spread over the next 3 years or so.

Re-sign veterans:  OL:  Corbett ($3m), Nijman ($4m), Christensen ($2.5m--2 years $5m), Jake Curhan ($1.4m-2 years, $3m).  BC may be ready around mid season, Curhan has experience at RT and G, and played well.  He has played LT in preseason.  There is NOTHING in free agency at LT--most sucked in 2025 and/or are old.  WR: Jalen Coker ($8m--4 years, $32m), LB: Rozeboom ($3.5--2 years, $7m) Cherelus ($1m)  ST: Isiah Simmons ($1.5m).  TOTAL:  Approx. $25m

New Free Agents: 

Linebacker:  Leo Chenal (KC, age 26) estimated $5m.

Safety:  Tony Adams, (NYJ, age 27)  estimated $7m

Edge: Arnold Ebikete (Atl, age 27)  estimated $7m

Draft:

Round 1:  Cashius Howell, Edge Texas AM (This pick gives the Panthers a situational edge rusher to pair with Princely while Ebikete and Scourton start.  Jones II could be cut to save about $4m in cap room.

Round 2: Caleb Tiernan, LT, Northwestern (Good pass protector who needs work in run blocking.  I wanted Golday LB here, but if we sign Chenel, the need is lessened at LB if we re-sign Rozeboom. Tiernan is solid).

Round 3:  Jake Slaughter C, Florida (Groom behind Corbett for a while, but Slaughter is an impressive C who should be ready by 2027).

Round 4:  Demetrius Crownover, RT Texas AM (This guy can develop as a backup until Moton decides to leave)

Round 5:  Aiden Fisher, ILB Indiana (could be a nice fit in this system.  Smart, with special teams ability)'

Round 6: Ty Montgomery, WR John Carroll Univ.  (very productive with good size and hands.  a gamble, but worth a sixth)

Round 7:  James Thompson Jr.  DT, Illinois (was a beast at the Shrine bowl practices and game.  For some reason, there have been a lot of undrafted free agents and day 3 DTs succeed in the NFL.  This could be one.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MHS831]

6 hours ago, csx said:

Why do people keep chicken littling about the schedule? Its the same (technically tiny bit easier) than last season.

And there are a lot of teams that fluctuate from year to year.   For example, the Lions disappointed, and the Bears and Pats overachieved.  But your stats demonstrate the point.  At the bottom 10 of the SOS (toughest schedule) for 2025, the Texans and Rams are the only teams to have winning records. In the top 10 of the SOS (weakest schedules) only the Browns and Cowboys had losing records.  So, it seems that if you have a top 10 SOS (toughest), you have an 80% chance of having a losing record.  If you have a top 10 easiest schedule, you have an 80% chance of having a winning record.  I am not seeing your point, based on these charts.  

[Khyber53]

I'm going to take the outlier here and say we post our first 10 win season in a loooong time.

I think we are ahead of the curve in rebuild vs the rest of our division and I think we're seeing something grow culture wise. There's finally some grit in this team.

My biggest concern right now is at our OT positions. I'm going to be honest here, I think Icky gets more credit than he has earned. He was the best on our team at LT but I'm not sure he'd crack the top half of the league in LTs, maybe not even the top 2/3rds. And on the right side, as much as I appreciate Moton for who he has been over the tough years for us, he's getting long in the tooth. There just isn't much tread left on those tires.

I'm also not worrying about the Rico Dowdle loss because something tells me, he might be back here once he's tested the market. 

Our CBs and Safeties are better than advertised with a bit more depth than I think any of us predicted.

QB... sheesh, I wish I knew what to say. A lot of bumpy road, a few smooth spots, a couple of great highlight reel moments, but more questions than answers.

Oh, and I am hoping that XL gets it together and lives up to his potential. They always say it's year 3 for receivers and well, here we go big guy. Make something happen.

[PantherChris]

On 2/20/2026 at 9:35 AM, mrcompletely11 said:

and losing Icky and losing rico

Rico was a few game splash but also trust me the books dont consider either. 

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, PantherChris said:

Rico was a few game splash but also trust me the books dont consider either. 

Vegas doesnt take in consideration losing your starting LT and RB?  Right right

[PantherChris]

Just now, mrcompletely11 said:

Vegas doesnt take in consideration losing your starting LT and RB?  Right right

No they dont lol. People betting as the line moves do however, opening lines are about action period really the only think moving these lines are QBs.