Morgan's Lessons Learned: Reflections on Tampering Eve

[MHS831]

While I appreciate those of you who start threads and keep up with the news, I sometimes start a thread because I do not have a clear picture of what Huddlers think about this or that.   So, I share my random lunacy with you to get your reactions.  Unless I missed something, there has been very little noise in the areas of restructuring, re-signing, rumor mongering, etc.  from Panther headquarters.  That either means we have a top, triple, pinky-swear secret or two, or we simply are not headed for a big splash.  So since I had psychology in college and made a B-, I feel qualified to look at things from Morgan's perspective.

First, his primary target last year was to pay Milton Williams a ton of money.   When Morgan did not get Williams, he immediately reverted to enter a bidding war with Tershawn Wharton, eventually signing him to a 3-year, $45m contract.  Was this impulsive?  Everyone pretty much had Williams coming to Carolina, and at the last minute, the Pats, big spenders in 2025, took Williams from under Morgan's nose.  The Pats made the Super Bowl and the Panthers reacted by signing a bust.

In almost an equal number of snaps, Williams had twice the pressures (seen above) and twice the sacks (4 to 2).  And in the aftermath, he signed another DT (Brown III), ultimately spending the same amount of money as Milton Williams cost.  These may or may not be related, but in the words of the great Dave Gettleman, "I'd rather have a quarter over two dimes."  Is that what happened?  You could argue that we had 2 needs, but we did not get an elite player--we did not make that splash--instead, we signed 2 mediocre players.  Maybe we signed Moehrig because S is not that coveted position that a losing team in a small market has to overpay to attract.  Who really knows?  

Morgan is still a young executive.  So this is what I think he learned:  

1.  Everyone knew about Carolina and Williams as we entered the tampering period.  So did the Patriots, and they walked into the saloon at the last second and bullied him out into the streets.  Morgan got embarrassed, I would think, because he gave away leverage, it seems.  New England simply waited for Carolina's offer and outbid them. They held all the cards, and they had the cash. They had tons of cap room and Carolina did not, so Morgan had to know better than to raise the stakes vs. the guy at the table behind a huge stack of chips.  He folded. That happens.  Maybe he should have been more secretive, maybe he should have gone all in.  But losing Williams to NE is probably not where he made his biggest error.  Immediately chasing Wharton was his biggest error, it seems.

2. Since they were not quiet about it, Morgan reacted quickly, as if to save face and fill this huge need.  Then signed Brown III. e grabbed a defensive lineman from the same DL Chris Jones plays on--who do you think got the focus when teams played the Chiefs.  Wharton had Brown here, you could argue, but in KC, Wharton had the benefit of knowing that most of the time, the opposition was coming from behind--that makes reads very easy.  Wharton had good numbers in a perfect environment.  So it looks as though it is possible Morgan made 2 mistakes.  He showed his cards with Williams, perhaps, and overpaid for "Plan B" by not reading the fine print.  As a result, we got 2 poor to mediocre DL when we could have had a DT to pair with Brown.

3. Morgan settled down in free agency after that act of desperation, agreeing to terms with Moehrig, a S we needed. (3 years, $51m), and Patrick Jones (Edge) to give us pass-rushing depth Behind Gamecocks Clowney and Wonnum.  Then the draft came along and he grabbed two rookies.  To save cap room, he released Clowney, who went on to get 9 sacks and 40 pressures in Dallas to save about $8m in cap room.  He could not have foreseen that, or the Wonnum and Jones II injuries, but one has to wonder how often he regretted that as the season unfolded.

One could argue that the defense was better, but how much better would it have been if Morgan had not made some choices that backfired?  

So for now it is quiet.  To me, that could mean that Morgan learned a lot from last year.  

 

 

 

[shaq]

5 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

While I appreciate those of you who start threads and keep up with the news, I sometimes start a thread because I do not have a clear picture of what Huddlers think about this or that.   So, I share my random lunacy with you to get your reactions.  Unless I missed something, there has been very little noise in the areas of restructuring, re-signing, rumor mongering, etc.  from Panther headquarters.  That either means we have a top, triple, pinky-swear secret or two, or we simply are not headed for a big splash.  So since I had psychology in college and made a B-, I feel qualified to look at things from Morgan's perspective.

First, his primary target last year was to pay Milton Williams a ton of money.   When Morgan did not get Williams, he immediately reverted to enter a bidding war with Tershawn Wharton, eventually signing him to a 3-year, $45m contract.  Was this impulsive?  Everyone pretty much had Williams coming to Carolina, and at the last minute, the Pats, big spenders in 2025, took Williams from under Morgan's nose.  The Pats made the Super Bowl and the Panthers reacted by signing a bust.

In almost an equal number of snaps, Williams had twice the pressures (seen above) and twice the sacks (4 to 2).  And in the aftermath, he signed another DT (Brown III), ultimately spending the same amount of money as Milton Williams cost.  These may or may not be related, but in the words of the great Dave Gettleman, "I'd rather have a quarter over two dimes."  Is that what happened?  You could argue that we had 2 needs, but we did not get an elite player--we did not make that splash--instead, we signed 2 mediocre players.  Maybe we signed Moehrig because S is not that coveted position that a losing team in a small market has to overpay to attract.  Who really knows?  

Morgan is still a young executive.  So this is what I think he learned:  

1.  Everyone knew about Carolina and Williams as we entered the tampering period.  So did the Patriots, and they walked into the saloon at the last second and bullied him out into the streets.  Morgan got embarrassed, I would think, because he gave away leverage, it seems.  New England simply waited for Carolina's offer and outbid them. They held all the cards, and they had the cash. They had tons of cap room and Carolina did not, so Morgan had to know better than to raise the stakes vs. the guy at the table behind a huge stack of chips.  He folded. That happens.  Maybe he should have been more secretive, maybe he should have gone all in.  But losing Williams to NE is probably not where he made his biggest error.  Immediately chasing Wharton was his biggest error, it seems.

2. Since they were not quiet about it, Morgan reacted quickly, as if to save face and fill this huge need.  Then signed Brown III. e grabbed a defensive lineman from the same DL Chris Jones plays on--who do you think got the focus when teams played the Chiefs.  Wharton had Brown here, you could argue, but in KC, Wharton had the benefit of knowing that most of the time, the opposition was coming from behind--that makes reads very easy.  Wharton had good numbers in a perfect environment.  So it looks as though it is possible Morgan made 2 mistakes.  He showed his cards with Williams, perhaps, and overpaid for "Plan B" by not reading the fine print.  As a result, we got 2 poor to mediocre DL when we could have had a DT to pair with Brown.

3. Morgan settled down in free agency after that act of desperation, agreeing to terms with Moehrig, a S we needed. (3 years, $51m), and Patrick Jones (Edge) to give us pass-rushing depth Behind Gamecocks Clowney and Wonnum.  Then the draft came along and he grabbed two rookies.  To save cap room, he released Clowney, who went on to get 9 sacks and 40 pressures in Dallas to save about $8m in cap room.  He could not have foreseen that, or the Wonnum and Jones II injuries, but one has to wonder how often he regretted that as the season unfolded.

One could argue that the defense was better, but how much better would it have been if Morgan had not made some choices that backfired?  

So for now it is quiet.  To me, that could mean that Morgan learned a lot from last year.  

 

 

 

Fantastic write up, the overreaction to sign another DT immediately after missing out on Milton was a painfully bad. I don’t even understand how Tershawn got the contract he got he is an undersized 3tech who benefited to playing next to a HOF all time prime Chris Jones. Even on the Cheifs he was a part time player, he is only 280 with 31 inch arms. He is one of the worst run defending DT in the league and is a slightly above average pass rusher. We paid him 18 million!! That is likely the contract Devin Lloyd will get this offseason. Worst move Morgan has made and I’m a Morgan supporter. 

[MHS831]

55 minutes ago, shaq said:

Fantastic write up, the overreaction to sign another DT immediately after missing out on Milton was a painfully bad. I don’t even understand how Tershawn got the contract he got he is an undersized 3tech who benefited to playing next to a HOF all time prime Chris Jones. Even on the Cheifs he was a part time player, he is only 280 with 31 inch arms. He is one of the worst run defending DT in the league and is a slightly above average pass rusher. We paid him 18 million!! That is likely the contract Devin Lloyd will get this offseason. Worst move Morgan has made and I’m a Morgan supporter. 

I support Morgan too my bro--he is learning.  I think he let his emotions get in the way.  I also approved of releasing Clowney after the draft--nobody could have predicted 9 sacks in 2025 and nobody saw Jones II and Wonnum missing 22 games combined.  With that in mind, we are (guessing) keeping Jones and Scourton as our starters and  Princely should be better. A veteran on a decent contract is all we need-  

[frankw]

The desperation also applies to the OL. He spent $150 million on two interior olinemen and we still gave up the 16th most sacks in 2025. And now we have voids at LT and Center.

And when you add in the 2024 draft of trading up for both Xavier Legette and Jonathan Brooks in the first two rounds. Ohhh wee mayne....

[ProcessBlue2]

We can still make offers the next 3 days. We don’t technically have to be under the cap until Wednesday afternoon if I remember right. So, Morgan may just go after who he wants and then do the restructuring/releases simultaneously.

[Basbear]

Thanks again @MHS831 for making content to read!!

 

I don't have any insight into their FA process. My guess is they have MANY plans and back ups, I believe they were very prepared heading into the FA. They already signed Wharton minutes after Milton wanted more than dbrown money. SO that tells me they already sent a contract to Wharton's agent and they agreed to terms if "this other deal falls off". Bobby brown was included too, they already had the backup plan in place. 

Milton Williams is a beast and it would have been great in a Panthers uniform, but open market and other team with more cap space....It was the right move not to pay him more than your best player playing the same spot. My personal opinion on this too- Wharton overworked himself too much and thus got injured more as a result. Wharton put too much pressure on himself, he pulled a CMC. I think he will have a great 2nd season in a big bounce back(quote me/bump/whatever).

The deal is for WEEKS GMs/team execs have already agreed to rough terms for contracts. (My personal belief) Now it comes down to relationships, medicals(huge one), and just bizarre deals. The top 40-70% already know where they are signing. Just comes down to the relationship(agent-to-team exces), family(are the wife and kids happy moving or they want to stay? the girl friends too..), and those pesky medical evaluations from team doctors. 

 

Another big deal is the players has to want to come play for you in that area. The team could have all the money in the perfect city setting for a young player, but he doesn't want to go for _______ reasons. Its a combo of agreements. I've already started to worry that Tmac is a west coast cat and he's counts the days until he can head there.....

[strato]

I’d just say, re Clowney, Wonnum missing games is what he did for almost all 2024.  I wanted to keep Clowney. But I think they didn’t like his attitude maybe. Otherwise I didn’t understand it. 

Edited 16 hours ago by strato

[ClawOn]

Fair points all around. Here's to hoping his free agency moves go in a similar trajectory to his draft classes. 

[strato]

5 hours ago, frankw said:

The desperation also applies to the OL. He spent $150 million on two interior olinemen and we still gave up the 16th most sacks in 2025. And now we have voids at LT and Center.

And when you add in the 2024 draft of trading up for both Xavier Legette and Jonathan Brooks in the first two rounds. Ohhh wee mayne....

Okay but need to stipulate to LOT isn’t Morgan’s fault.  We’ll see how it is dealt with. 
 

This cap stuff. When it gets to precluding us from retaining a player or really handicaps FA, I’ll worry about it.  
I think you can spend money if you structure the deals to give you an out halfway through. And you can keep turning the ready to step in FAs over.  

[frankw]

9 hours ago, strato said:

Okay but need to stipulate to LOT isn’t Morgan’s fault.  We’ll see how it is dealt with. 
 

This cap stuff. When it gets to precluding us from retaining a player or really handicaps FA, I’ll worry about it.  
I think you can spend money if you structure the deals to give you an out halfway through. And you can keep turning the ready to step in FAs over.  

The issue with kicking the can down the road in regards to the cap is it all depends on the returns you're getting. Is this group worth going all in on for the 26th passing offense and a group that backed their way into the playoffs with the help of the Falcons?

For me I would be more inclined to do what we can within the limits of reason and not treat this offseason like we have to fix everything in one swoop. Because that has also not worked out for us in the past either.

[strato]

1 hour ago, frankw said:

The issue with kicking the can down the road in regards to the cap is it all depends on the returns you're getting. Is this group worth going all in on for the 26th passing offense and a group that backed their way into the playoffs with the help of the Falcons?

For me I would be more inclined to do what we can within the limits of reason and not treat this offseason like we have to fix everything in one swoop. Because that has also not worked out for us in the past either.

Well I am not sure what I am advocating for. It isn’t an all in SB or bust push, I can say that for sure. 
 And I am not wanting to be the spendingist team in FA every year. 20mil for Lloyd seems too much. 
I would for sure want to sign a vet LB and fix LOT this year and get=some short term help at edge. 

Edited 1 hour ago by strato