Panther Needs (3/14): The Shift to Defense

[MHS831]

Once again, I feel the need to lay the cards on the table to see what you all think. I will present my views, hoping that you will share yours and stimulate discussion.  Since most of us are lifeless forms who do not have the time-consuming burden of having sex regularly to clog our schedules, I figured you would not be too busy to participate.

While some of us want a pure, BPA draft, every GM says it.  About that:  I have a theory.  If you have a need and a player who fulfills that need is there, he may be the "best" option for your team--not the best player.  Because he meets your biggest need, he becomes (in your brain) the "best."  If my big board had a CB at the top and a QB at #2 and I needed a QB, I am not taking the CB.   I will add that the more holes you fill, the more flexibility you have, but simply taking the BPA regardless of need?  That is hard to do when nearly everyone in the NFL is expected to produce immediate results.  I think need plays a big role, and I think overall play regardless of position does as well, but at some point, both are variables that are poured into the equation.  Nobody said it had to be one or the other--it can be a combination of both--and I think that is the case here.  Don't believe me?   Well, I can predict the positions we are going to draft most years.  How?  I do not go on who I think will be on the board.  I go by our needs and then I look at the players that are available and predict the round they will be taken.   If I know the LTs will be gone by pick 45, for example, I am taking a LT early, regardless of BPA.  If I think a starting C could be there in round 3, I am probably not taking a C over the LT in round 1, even if the Center is the better player.  Enough of my wisdom.

So what are our needs for STARTERS now?  

Free Safety:  We have box safeties (Moehrig, Ransom, and Simmons.  Ransom can play FS, but he is at his best in the box, imo.  We need a smart center fielder.  a guy who is a ball hawk.  A guy who can call coverages.  A guy who is a sure tackler.  While I love Caleb Downs, I think Thieneman might just be our pick.   We really have no player like him and he would make everyone better.  Not sure how he would fit into the Evero system.

Will Inside Linebacker:  In my view, Lloyd is slated to play the Mike.  Wallace, on the other hand, had been better in coverage than run stuffing, so I think they want to play him at the Will ILB. While his coverage is solid, any ILB who has tackling inconsistency is not a starting ILB.  In my view, a starting Will ILB is a need.  I see this as our second round selection.  I see Golday all day.

Defensive Tackle:  The position nobody seems to be talking about.  We lost Robinson, and 280-pound Wharton is not an early-down answer.  Bobby Brown and Cam Jackson are big-bodied NTs who are not making offensive centers shiver in the night.  With the 320-lb Derrick Brown able to shift to a 1-5 technique, much of the weakness is covered.  However, Wharton is rotational. We need a DT who can take Robinson's place and make the front scary.  I am hoping we can find a day 3 steal to fill this rotational need.

Tight End:  I include TE because the Panthers seem determined to find an upgrade.  Tremble, Sanders, Evans, and Mitchell is pretty "meh."  However, is this need big enough to spend now?  I do not see the size of the upgrade we need in the draft, unless we draft a fat, slow, WR and call him a TE.  If we address TE, it will be in free agency, imo.

Depth:  Needs that will be expected to start in 2027

Left Tackle:  Walker is on a one-year deal. If he plays well, he will want $$$ and that is a real possiblity if Ickey is not fully recovered and ready to go.  So the need or a depth LT who can start in 2027 is genuine, but not as dire as it was.  This suggests that we should draft a smart, developing LT with the ability to play other positions. I do not see us going OT in day one or even day 2 (possibly).  I like some of the developing LTs who could be available late, and we have a solid OT coach to develop someone with skills and ability.  Trey Zuhn III, for example, looked good in pass pro at the SR bowl before rolling his ankle.  Versatile.  Day 3.

Right Tackle:  In my view, at this moment, RT is a bigger need than LT.  Moton is 31 and has a questionable wheel.  Good news.  There are some solid RT candidates in this draft at RT.  Expect a RT earlier than you think.  I am guessing they could take Blake Miller, Clemson, Jennings Dunker, Iowa, or Max Iheanachor ASU, in round 2 (or early round 3), in fact. However, since you do not need day 1 starters, a developmental prospect could be in order. In that case, Dametrious Hightower (Tex AM) in the fourth could be an option.  

Cornerback:  Mike Jackson has been great for us, but he is entering the final season of his contract. While 2025 UDFA Thornton was the second-rated rookie CB in 2025 before his injury, he could be the heir apparent.  If you want to upgrade the nickel position, then that's different.  Smith-Wade has been unspectacular, but not a liability.  How you address CB depends on the love you have for the surprising, undrafted Thornton.  In my view, you need at least one, I just don't know what type(s).

Center:  The is tough because the seem to really like Samac (25) and Fortner (27) is a half-notch above Mays.  We could be set with mediocre centers for now, and opt to address the issue later.  

Quarterback:  I think we need to draft a QB on day three with the intention of selecting our backup QB.  Someone who is raw but has the skills.  Maybe a player whose stock was beaten down.  Last year, before the season, there were guys being projected for round 1 of the draft who might not be drafted now on days 1 or 2.  Find the gem.  Drew Allar, Penn State sure looked good at the Combine and he will be available in rounds 4-5.

Guard:    We have Zavala as a reserve and that is about it for now.  

So if I am the GM, what do I do?  I can't meet all the needs for starters as mentioned here, and the depth players are too numerous to populate through the draft.  Here goes my first mock (NFL Draft Hero) after blabbing and droning through this thread:

A few explanations: 

Pick 113 Brian Parker is ideal for a conversion to center.  He was excellent at RT for Duke and could backup Moton in a pinch, but I project him to Center or guard.

PIck 152 Aamil Wagner is a Left Tackle project that could use some strength building, but technically sound, a good leader, a solid technician.  A year with our OT coach should help.  (I missed out on my Tex AM OT Zuhn III because he went in the third--I was going to take him in round 4)

Pick 170 Parker Brailsford was a C at Alabama.  Should they decide to play Brian Parker at RT or Guard, Brailsford has starting potential.  I think he can only play center, however, so that could make Parker a G or T.

As you can see, I was able to trade down a few times, enabling me to find a late WR and LB who might develop.  Jolly (TE) is a player they have talked to.

I would be happy with this draft, but it is not at all what I was envisioning a week ago.  

 

 

 

[Bear Hands]

Nice write up. Love seeing this type of content in the offseason. 

[Khyber53]

I agree with you on the pick of Thienemen in the first. I think he will still be there and he's a smart, fast and sturdy player. He's who we need back there.

In the second, I like Rodriguez over Golday. I agree that off the ball linebackers are desperately needed here, even with our great FA pick up.

I think with our third pick, we're going to dip into OT territory instead of the D-line. While I agree that we need another disruptor at the point of attack that is stout enough to just stonewall a center and a guard at the same time, we've got a shaky and expensive O-line at the present that is just about to age out of the game. I think we snag Blake Miller out of Clemson here and give him a year behind Moton to learn and put some weight and strength on. He can also jump right in and play right guard at any time. Also, and this might sound crazy, but anyone who has put up with multiple seasons at Clemson will be able to take the heat and humidity of training camp at the start of the season and early games against the NFCSouth. 

Beyond that, your guess is as good as mine. We do need that QB for competition and realistically to study for back-up. Luke Altmyer out of Illinois seems to fit the mold of the point guard type QB that they want from Bryce. That'd make an apples to apples situation that could make coaching and game planning easy. On the other hand North Dakota State's Cole Payton could be an intriguing choice as well as a big dual threat guy. Both could be there for our fourth pick or both could be gone. Will QBs continue to slide this season like last? Who knows? 

[shaq]

Darrell Jackson would be a fantastic pickup for us, I think he could replace 80% of what A’Shawn gave us last year. With more passing rush upside going forward in the future, I’m a big proponent of large framed defensive tackles. Pairing Derrick Brown with another 6’5 35inch arm length DT would be so fun to watch. Let’s continue being huge in the middle, allow our linebackers to flow to the ball uninterrupted.

[frankw]

I like where you're going here.

With us only having two 5ths and a 6th I am definitely open to the idea of trading down in this draft if the opportunity is there. This is where Morgan has the chance to really establish himself. We need a homerun.

[*FreeFua*]

I know it gets exhausting seeing comments saying “he won’t be there” but I really don’t think Thieneman makes it to 19. I really don’t. This draft is all over the place. Lack of blue chip type prospects. In the 1st you just don’t want to miss. Thieneman feels like a safe pick for a lot of teams in front of us. Way too much talent there to bust. 

If teams view Fano as a guard/Center he could potentially be there at 19. Fano imo would be best case scenario for us. He’d come in and start at center this season. Then he’s a candidate to take over for Hunt when he becomes a cap casualty or Moton when he retires or he becomes an elite Center and he solidifies the IOL which is something Dan wants to do

[Daddy_Uncle]

I think Thieneman is becoming my top guy for us. We really need someone like that at FS to round out our defense. 

There are some stud DTs that will be available when we pick. I could definitely see that. 

I also would not be surprised at all if we WR for the 3rd year in a row. Someone like Omar Cooper Jr. who is known for YAC and being a tough physical receiver. I know they are trying to give Bryce everything they can to help them decide if they want to extend him or not. 

Sadiq would be a beautiful luxury pick. I don’t think he makes it to us. 

[Dave Gettleman's Shorts]

1 hour ago, shaq said:

Darrell Jackson would be a fantastic pickup for us, I think he could replace 80% of what A’Shawn gave us last year. With more passing rush upside going forward in the future, I’m a big proponent of large framed defensive tackles. Pairing Derrick Brown with another 6’5 35inch arm length DT would be so fun to watch. Let’s continue being huge in the middle, allow our linebackers to flow to the ball uninterrupted.

I can see us taking D-linemen to pair next to DB

Turk Wharton and his huge contract aint it

[*FreeFua*]

2 hours ago, shaq said:

Darrell Jackson would be a fantastic pickup for us, I think he could replace 80% of what A’Shawn gave us last year. With more passing rush upside going forward in the future, I’m a big proponent of large framed defensive tackles. Pairing Derrick Brown with another 6’5 35inch arm length DT would be so fun to watch. Let’s continue being huge in the middle, allow our linebackers to flow to the ball uninterrupted.

Caleb Banks paired with DB with Jaelan moving around… 

[MHS831]

3 hours ago, *FreeFua* said:

I know it gets exhausting seeing comments saying “he won’t be there” but I really don’t think Thieneman makes it to 19. I really don’t. This draft is all over the place. Lack of blue chip type prospects. In the 1st you just don’t want to miss. Thieneman feels like a safe pick for a lot of teams in front of us. Way too much talent there to bust. 

If teams view Fano as a guard/Center he could potentially be there at 19. Fano imo would be best case scenario for us. He’d come in and start at center this season. Then he’s a candidate to take over for Hunt when he becomes a cap casualty or Moton when he retires or he becomes an elite Center and he solidifies the IOL which is something Dan wants to do

Everytime I do a mock he has moved up 5 spots.  I can't keep up with him.  

[TheSpecialJuan]

Really enjoy your analysis 

[firefox1234]

Love the analysis. I’d love to go safety especially Thieneman but I’m having doubts he gets to #19. He seems to be seen more as one of the few blue chip prospects in this draft. I think a really good DL is going to fall to #19 to beef the front 7.

[MHS831]

Morgan gets a lot of credit--not only did he fill holes, he filled them with upgrades.

• The top edge in free agency (best fit for us, imo)
• The top ILB in free agency
• A starting LT that has slightly better numbers than our LT and he got him for about half what LTs went for last year in free agency
• A starting C with better numbers than our starting C for half the salary

I mean, getting 4 starters in free agency at those positions is incredible. 

4 starters of 22 possible starters.  We should add two more through the draft (ILB, S) at least

 

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, firefox1234 said:

Love the analysis. I’d love to go safety especially Thieneman but I’m having doubts he gets to #19. He seems to be seen more as one of the few blue chip prospects in this draft. I think a really good DL is going to fall to #19 to beef the front 7.

In a way, if he does not, there are a few others we can grab.  I would say that Theineman is the gold standard this year---he would make a lot of people better--ever notice how often DBs turn around and look at each other when they get beat deep?  You can almost hear their confusion.  Thieneman would minimize that stuff--