Everyone Says BPA. Panthers Won’t.

[Hugo]

A lot of people in the community seem to think Carolina will go pure BPA at 19, but I don’t really see it that way.

I do think this front office has put itself in a good position after free agency. They’ve been aggressive, they’ve improved the roster, and they’ve taken away the pressure of having to force one specific position. That part is true. But that still doesn’t mean this will be a true best player available approach.

There are still spots on this roster that clearly need more help than others, and I think those positions will naturally narrow the board.

The good news is that because the team improved multiple areas, they now have enough flexibility that their pick can still look like BPA. It just won’t be BPA in the purest sense. It’ll be more like BPA within a cluster of positions still in play.

With pick 19, the odds are pretty high that a player at one of those positions will match both value and need.

Here’s how I see the roster right now.

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Offense

QB — Bryce Young
X

RB — Chuba Hubbard
X
Chuba is productive, Jonathon Brooks should return from injury, and Trevor Etienne gives them another option. Running back is not a draft priority.

WR — Tetairoa McMillan
X

WR — Jalen Coker
X

WR — Xavier Legette
In play
He’s still young and worth developing, so I wouldn’t call this a major need. But if a high-end receiver unexpectedly falls, we could absolutely pull the trigger.

TE — Ja’Tavion Sanders
Very much in play
We don’t really have a true TE1. We haven’t had one since Greg Olsen. Kenyon Sadiq would make a lot of sense if the board falls that way.

LT — Rasheed Walker
X
Between Ekwonu and Rasheed Walker, tackle doesn’t feel like something they’d attack early.

LG — Damien Lewis
X

C — Luke Fortner
X
Not a priority compared to other needs.

RG — Robert Hunt
X

RT — Taylor Moton
X

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Defense

LDE — Derrick Brown
X

NT — Bobby Brown III
In play
He’s a nose tackle who doesn’t particularly stop the run that well. An upgrade could definitely be in play within the first 2–3 rounds.

RDE — Tershawn Wharton
In play
He struggled last season. On a Super Bowl contender, he would ideally be more of a rotational piece. Defensive interior overall still feels like a unit that could be improved. Our #2 DI last season was A’Shawn Robinson by a mile, and we lost him.

WLB — Nic Scourton
X

LILB — Devin Lloyd
X

RILB — Trevin Wallace
In play
Wallace has flaws in his game. Slightly below-average LB right now, but he could still develop into a solid depth piece.
I wouldn’t rule out linebacker within the first two rounds. In the first round though, the only realistic option without reaching would be Sonny Styles if he somehow falls to the 10–13 range and we trade up. CJ Allen and Anthony Hill Jr. should not be considered at 19.

SLB — Jaelan Phillips
X

LCB — Mike Jackson
X
Mike Jack should now be viewed as a pillar of this defense.

SS — Tre’von Moehrig
X

FS — Lathan Ransom
Very much in play
Free safety is one of the most realistic upgrade spots on the roster. Lathan Ransom profiles more like a strong safety than a true free safety.

RCB — Jaycee Horn
X

NB — Chau Smith-Wade
In play
Nickel could definitely be addressed early. Adding a true difference-maker in the slot (or another CB and moving Jaycee inside more often) would make this secondary much stronger.

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Final Take — TLDR

This is why I don’t think Carolina will follow a true BPA approach.

They’ve improved enough in free agency that they aren’t forced into one desperate need anymore, which is exactly where you want to be going into the draft. But the roster still has a few spots that clearly stand out more than others.

Because of that, I think the Panthers will draft using a multi-position BPA approach, not a full-roster BPA board.

Most realistic early targets in my opinion

• Tight end

• Defensive interior

• Free safety

• Linebacker

• Nickel corner

with wide receiver as the possible wildcard if someone unexpectedly falls.

At pick 19, that’s exactly the type of situation where value and need are most likely to meet.

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Realistic Picks at 19

• Kenyon Sadiq

• Caleb Banks / Peter Woods

• Dillon Thieneman

• Sonny Styles (via trade up if he falls)

• Jermod McCoy / Avieon Terrel

• Jordyn Tyson

[*FreeFua*]

The way this FO attacked this offseason it’s tough to envision them continuing to trot out someone as unreliable and dumb as Legette. There’s expectations now, potentially jobs at stake and Legette’s had his chances  

[tukafan21]

Not a fan of WR in the 1st unless the team has reservations about Coker's ceiling.

I think Coker can be a perfect #2 to T-Mac, and if that's the case, drafting a WR in the 1st Round this year makes no sense.  Sure it would upgrade our #3 WR spot, whether it's the rookie or Coker in that role, but in reality it doesn't make sense for the long term.

Doing that means we're drafting Coker's replacement, as if he hit on the pick, you can't have 3 WRs who all need to get paid within a year of each other or you run into the problems the Bengals are in right now, who are struggling just to pay 2 of them, let alone 3.

We need to compliment T-Mac and Coker with a serviceable speedy #3 right now, which is a type of player you usually can get on the cheap in FA year to year or in the 3/4 round range.  Then if we want to bring in a better #3 option, we do it in the 1st Round a year or two after T-Mac and Coker get their big extensions, as then it's a more manageable WR for cap purposes for 3-5 more years.

Edited 1 hour ago by tukafan21

[BEASTfromdaEAST]

5 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Not a fan of WR in the 1st unless the team has reservations about Coker's ceiling.

I think Coker can be a perfect #2 to T-Mac, and if that's the case, drafting a WR in the 1st Round this year makes no sense.  Sure it would upgrade our #3 WR spot, whether it's the rookie or Coker in that role, but in reality it doesn't make sense for the long term.

Doing that means we're drafting Coker's replacement, as if he hit on the pick, you can't have 3 WRs who all need to get paid within a year of each other or you run into the problems the Bengals are in right now, who are struggling just to pay 2 of them, let alone 3.

We need to compliment T-Mac and Coker with a serviceable speedy #3 right now, which is a type of player you usually can get on the cheap in FA year to year or in the 3/4 round range.  Then if we want to bring in a better #3 option, we do it in the 1st Round a year or two after T-Mac and Coker get their big extensions, as then it's a more manageable WR for cap purposes for 3-5 more years.

Watch out for Metchie, this may be one of the most over looked but one of the best FA signings so far. Tmac, Coker and Metchie imo is a legit WR rotation than we have had in a long time.

[LinvilleGorge]

What fans don't understand when they hear "BPA" is that what it really means is the "BPA for OUR team" which factors in things like the needs of the roster, scheme fit, etc. Every GM is going to claim that the player he drafted was the BPA. It's nit like you're gonna have one step to the podium and say "Listen, I know we passed up on better talent but damn y'all, we were desperate for a *insert position here*" even though it's very obvious rhats exactly whats happening with some picks in every draft.

[tukafan21]

7 minutes ago, BEASTfromdaEAST said:

Watch out for Metchie, this may be one of the most over looked but one of the best FA signings so far. Tmac, Coker and Metchie imo is a legit WR rotation than we have had in a long time.

It could be Metchie, it could be Horn Jr, and even though I'm basically ready to move on, it very well could end up being XL too.

But that's why I don't really like the idea of a WR in the 1st, I think we can find a way to make that slot position work with what we have and/or another signing or mid round pick.  

Drafting a WR in the 1st this year would be 3 years in a row while also hitting on an UDFA at the position in the same time frame, just a bad use of resources currently and sets you up for problems keeping them together as they all hit contract extensions at the same time frame.