2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

[MHS831]

In my view, the realistic expectation for this team to compete will start 2027.  At that time, I think we could be looking at the following (this is HIGHLY speculative):  

QB:  You know, Bryce.  I am not a fan, but they don't ask me.  But there is reason for hope--and here it is.  Bryce will be entering his prime.  Since we are likely to pay him, there will be changes that I include throughout this exercise--I realistically speculate on what they are going to do with Bryce and then I realistically speculate on what means in terms of the cap and other positions.

Bryce HAS IMPROVED.  The idea is that if you give him more weapons and protection, that will continue.  His career:

 

At this rate, if his growth continues, by 2027 we should expect nearly 30 TDs and about 12 Interceptions and a Rating of about 98.  His completion percentage should settle at 65-66% or so.  If that happens, you can win with it.

The following stats demonstrate how the Panthers will be able to afford it (and re-sign Ickey) My guess is they will require about $60m per year.

This is why rookies who can play are important.  It also helps us see the blueprint.  You may disagree, but this is the cruel realities of the salary cap.

• Robert Hunt:  Cut post June 1 and save $19m.  Who do you replace him with?  Ickey.
• Tershawn Wharton:  Cutting him saves nearly $15m.  We should all hope to see Aaron Hall (UDFA) make the roster and play well.  Regardless, this is a position we would likely have to address in the next draft.
• Trevin Moehrig:  Cutting Moehrig as the starting SS saves this team $16.5m.   Ransom will be on year 3 of a cheap rookie deal and should be more than ready to take the reins.  their styles are similar.  Furthermore, FS Wheatley (R, 4th round) will be starting.
• Taylor Moton:  So much depends on his knee, but I have an idea that he can play another 3 years.  extending him could save the team about $5m per year.  Cutting him outright would save the team about $21m.

In the most drastic situation, we have to cut Moton and the other three players mentioned.   We would need (in all likelihood) a starting DT and RT.  It is possible that the DE would be addressed, but Wharton's production (so far) could be equaled by a rookie.  Look for a cut free agent and a 2027 draft pick here.  If you cut Moton, you save $21m, and that would be the only big hole to fill.  Having Ickey at RG gives you some depth at T, and Ickey could be the guy.  T could be pick in the 2027 draft (first round), fwiw.  It saves you $21m while costing you $5m, for example. We get younger, creating a core of Freeling, Hecht, and the RT first rounder in 2027) along with Ekownu (second contract in the $15m range, and Lewis, whose contract would be in the $16m range if not extended.)  The OL cuts (Hunt, Moton) would save $40m.  The OL would get younger and still solid with veterans at G.  

By cutting Wharton (no brainer if his play stays the same) and Moehrig (good player--but we have Ransom on a rookie contract who would not be that much of a drop off--if any) in addition to Hunt and Moton, we would save over $70m in cap room. We would be able to give Bryce bag  and we would have enough to re-sign Ickey (if the knee is not too risky) to a Guard contract (probably at a discount, coming off that injury).  Furthermore, we could add a RT in the draft (or a RG if Ickey moves to RT) and that would be the only large hole to fill.

Correct my logic if you see issues--

On defense, in addition to the aforementioned, Scott ($2m contract) is out, replaced by a 4th round rookie contract. CB Jackson's contract ($7.8m) expires and he is (possibly) replaced by a rookie contract.  At Edge, patrick Jones II's $10m contract expires and he is likely a reserve, and his role is absorbed by Phillips, Scourton, Princely, and possible an UDFA like Isaiah Smith or a 2027 draft pick.  

These productive developmental players over the past 2 drafts will pay huge dividends.  On paper, I see the team getting much younger and possibly better while cutting nearly $100m and reallocating that money to get more production.

 

 

 

 

 

[LinvilleGorge]

If we pay Bryce like a franchise QB we're completely and utterly buttfuged.

[cranky]

It all sounds great. The only unknowns are injuries and how they will need to be addressed. Horn has a history as does the newly added Jaelen Phillips and Cooker has yet to play an entire season as well. And then there are the Ikey's - totally unexpecteded injuries that put a major wrench in your plans. I do think its a great plan though.

[SmokinwithWilly]

3 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If we pay Bryce like a franchise QB we're completely and utterly buttfuged.

260m 5 year with 180m guaranteed will be his deal. 

[Thorrez]

This is the flaw in your logic. 

Cutting 3 of our best players will somehow move us from whatever we are to "compete".

Even the most Young super fans are not predicting a ceiling above top 10-12, and that will not nearly cut it. 

Someone will need to break the log jam of QBs getting nothing or North of 50. Our qb is at best a middle ground, lets hope it will be us that also manage to pay the worth at about 100 over 3 years. 

And before you jump me, yes that is only of he improves.

[Cpt slay a ho]

Without the team having an identity kinda hard to predict what they value.  They either are really trying to build a balanced team, or preparing for another swing at qb if Bryce doesn’t pan out.

Seems like we value the o line but the $ spent there has been underwhelming besides Lewis, you could say it’s because of injuries but still hasn’t been worth the investment.

as already stated, the whole handling of Bryce young as a whole has been ass backwards, we spent the years we’re supposed to take advantage of having a qb with a lower cap hit, building the team up to be adequate.

now It appears, key word appears, the saints have done it correctly, which is painful to even think about. Regardless, I hope the front office has paid attention to qb contracts recently, such as Tua, Kyler, Daniel jones(pre colts) and don’t settle for subpar qb play at franchise qb rates
 

 

[falconlynx]

And this reiterates why I don’t want a Young contract extension. Please let us find another QB. 

[Khyber53]

I like it, but really our future hinges on three very important and expensive things we really can't predict right now.

1. Bryce. He either is or isn't going to be the guy. We won't know until this coming season ends. If he puts us in the 10 wins category and continues to improve (that TD-INT ratio is the big tell there), he won't be cheap. But I don't think he's going to be getting anywhere near the bank breaking amounts, unless we see some kind of Drew Brees-type emergence.

2. Can Icky even come back to play? At all. LT, guard or RT. I sure hope he can and I'd love to see him at guard. If he can come back, though, he's looking at vet pay at whatever position. $10 million a year is probably what we're looking at if he has to change position, if he can still play LT then it gets very steep. We might end up looking at letting him hit to open market.

3. Taylor Moton. Love the guy and he's been the picture perfect Right Tackle. The question is will he want to keep doing this? He's getting long in the tooth but he's still a hell of a scrapper out there. If he wants to go and we really want him to stay, well that costs big bucks. While RTs are supposedly easier to replace than LTs, it's still a tough one for us.  And we won't know anything on this until after training camp and then season end.

Dan Morgan's got a lot of stuff in the "still to be decided" bin on his desk.

[Growl]

Waiting to see how the OT situation plays out is probably going to be a big part of the calculus.

[mrcompletely11]

13 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If we pay Bryce like a franchise QB we're completely and utterly buttfuged.

https://wfnz.com/schedule/the-clubhouse-with-kyle-bailey/

Starts around 1100

I am not sure how connected Al Wallace is but he thinks bryce is going to get paid (50+) and it may happen within the first 4 games of this season.   He thinks the offense looked good last season.  Not really sure what the hell he was watching.

[jb2288]

26 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

https://wfnz.com/schedule/the-clubhouse-with-kyle-bailey/

Starts around 1100

I am not sure how connected Al Wallace is but he thinks bryce is going to get paid (50+) and it may happen within the first 4 games of this season.   He thinks the offense looked good last season.  Not really sure what the hell he was watching.

 No chance I extend him this year, but if they do after 4 games that should be a good sign. Means he finally got whatever mental block he’s had the first half of each season out of the way. Dude just looks like a deer in headlights those first few weeks each year 

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, jb2288 said:

 No chance I extend him this year, but if they do after 4 games that should be a good sign. Means he finally got whatever mental block he’s had the first half of each season out of the way. Dude just looks like a deer in headlights those first few weeks each year 

He threw for 54 yards at home in week 17

[Sup]

10 hours ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

260m 5 year with 180m guaranteed will be his deal. 

Not with us.

[SmokinwithWilly]

2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

I like it, but really our future hinges on three very important and expensive things we really can't predict right now.

1. Bryce. He either is or isn't going to be the guy. We won't know until this coming season ends. If he puts us in the 10 wins category and continues to improve (that TD-INT ratio is the big tell there), he won't be cheap. But I don't think he's going to be getting anywhere near the bank breaking amounts, unless we see some kind of Drew Brees-type emergence.

 

Do we pay based on how many wins or how many games Bryce led us to wins? We've spent quite a bit on defense this year and hopefully they're much improved. If the Panthers do get to 10 wins, but Bryce has another year like last year where he showed up big in a couple, was present in a few, and forgettable in most, do we still pay him 50m per year? 

I keep bringing it up because I think it's relevant, but Bryce was outplayed by a 6m per year backup last year. I don't see how it's possible to pay a top tier QB contract to someone who's putting up backup QB production.