AU-panther

Your logic is incomplete. You don't just replace Burns production with just the draft picks, you replace his production with the $25m you save. The eagles had similar production out of Reddick for $15m. The draft picks are just bonus. but... What if you make the argument that Reddick or any other replacement isn't quite as good as Burns. Maybe you spend $15m to get 80-90% of Burns production then spend the other $10m to improve another position? Is the goal to have the most talent at one position or overall? How much can you improve another position for $10m? A good bit I would guess. I'm not saying don't pay Burns, once you reach a certain overall talent level on your team you should spend the extra on true difference makers, and Burns might be that but to say the trade was bad because the chance of draft picks being better is terrible logic because you are totally ignoring the cap savings. Fans tend to think about trades and personnel moves in a vacuum, that isn't how it works. Every trade, every deal has a ripple effect.

Exactly how much do you think he is going to sign for? Personally I think the idea of $15m is laughable.

So where exactly is PFF calling him mediocre? They actually have a very good ranking on him.

People need to stop box score scouting. His pass rush is better than people realize. Just look at his pass rush grade also. Sacks don't tell the whole story, often the guy that gets the sack isn't the guy that caused the sack. Pressures are important. Either way, If he has another year like last year he will get paid as being elite, so people might shocked at contract time.

I think he is a good prospect but two things make me nervous. When you play for Alabama or an Ohio state the game is relatively easy. Your line is better. Your skill positions are better. How do you react when you are on the bad team, Constant pressure, or receivers who aren’t open. Also his arm strength seems A bit less that other prospects, that doesn’t necessarily prevent you from having success but it can decrease your margin of error.

But if we hadn’t traded up, we probably don’t get the guy we want so the fact they get who they want without trading up is irrelevant. There is also a very good chance that the guy they wanted the most was the guy we took. So I’m reality they didn’t get they guy they wanted by staying put, they got their second or third choice by staying put.

Teams miss on QBs all the time. Some seem safer than others, for example Luck vs Mayfield, but not are 100%. I like Young but I don’t consider him as safe as a pick as a Lawrence or Luck.

That’s not how sports books work in regard to setting lines. They aren’t lowering odds to entice bets, most likely they are because money had been coming in on Levis for whatever reason. They lower the odds to reduce their risk.

Maybe, maybe not. Drafting a QB is a gamble, are you odds better with 2 rolls of the dice?

I’ll happily take Levis at 2 if we get Houston’s first next year. If we doesn’t play like we hope we can draft another next year.

that's my point exactly, if they only have a 50% chance of being successful wouldn't your chances be better by having 2 of them.

What are your opinions about Maye? I'm guessing you have watched him a little. The points of my post was hypothetical at best, do people really feel like QB 1 this year has that much better of a chance of being good than some combination of two QBS over the next two years? Would you take Young or AR and Maye? or even Levis and Maye? or Stroud and Williams? Is Young really that much better of a prospect? As fans and front offices tend to think in very binary terms about these QB prospects, we convince ourselves that whatever QB we like has a 100% chance of making it and whatever one we don't has a 0% chance of making it but history tells us we are usually wrong.

I agree the sure thing is the safest, but Levis was never considered a prospect on the level of Williams. Williams is looking like a Lawrence or Luck type of prospect.

I don't expect us to trade down, if you trade down and then the QB that goes 1st turns out to be great you get second guessed, and those are the type of moves that get you fired. If you stay put and take the person a lot of people think is great and if they don't turn out it just gets chalked up to bad luck. A lot of people on here when talking about trading down, say with Houston, really want their extra 1st round pick this year (#12), but I'm thinking the really aggressive play is next year's 1st. Both Indy and Houston were terrible this year, not just record but their point differential, I don't expect them to be much better, so there is a very good chance their 1st next year could be a top 2 pick. Also, next year's QB class, especially at the top, looks to be really good, namely Williams and Maye. Lets say Indy is open to trading up and giving us next year's 1st, would you prefer Young at 1 this year, or whatever QB falls to 4, maybe Stroud, Levis, or AR plus a really good chance at Williams or Maye next year? You are almost giving yourself 2 chances to find a QB, and let's be honest, any QB you draft is a gamble. The thought of AR this year and maybe Willimas or Maye next is pretty tempting, if AR looks like the real deal those picks are worth a fortune, if you are sure about AR you take a QB. Talk about swinging for the fences. Of course, this whole plan goes out the window if Indy wins 7 games and picks 6th. Also I don't if any GM has the nerve to try something like this, I don't know if I would, could be a quick way to lose your job.

If his size is limiting his ability to play QB at a high level but he played QB at a higher level than the other 3 guys in college what is their excuse? Im not 100% sold on him either but my concerns with his size relate to durability not his ability to play QB, those are two different things.

If they stay put at #1 it's probably pretty definitive at this point who they are taking, regardless of what they are saying. Now the part that might still be debatable, is what would it take to move off of that #1 pick.

but you will go with QBR which has absolutely no eye test component at all...

So what you are saying is as a fan you have no idea if a player is good or not because you don't know the play either?

Beaded in what? Exactly how is QBR better than pff grade? QB throws a terrible pass that bounces off of the defenders chest, WR catches the deflection, makes 4 defenders miss and scores a TD. QBR grades goes up for the QB. PFF grades goes down for the QB. I prefer that trash. QB throws a check down to a wide open RB that makes a spectacular 40 yard run for a TD or QB makes a perfect 40 yard pass to a WR while under pressure, which is more impressive? QBR views them the same, PFF does not. Which one sounds like trash now?

QBR is a stat based metric that doesn’t isolate the QBs play. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-draft-profile-c-j-stroud-ohio-state

Being blitzed isn’t the same being pressured. His line could have picked up the blitz. Go look up his grade under pressure and how it compares to the other top QBs. With that being said, I’m not against stroud, just when using stats you need context.

but at 39 you are probably looking for someone to contribute this year and you just spent money on two guys to contribute this year. Add in the fact a lot of people consider this WR class weak, if we draft one, I expect it to be later. Here again, nothing is set in stone, just my opinion. Also if you are going to look at who is on contract at two years you just can't look at the WRs. How many 3-4 DEs on contract in two years? How many LBs on contract in two years? Not really loaded their either.

True, and that is something they might have took into account when trying to decide where to spend money in free agency. You could counter that argument and say the TE class is really deep so why did we spend in free agency, but to be honest with a potential rookie QB, I always thought we would look for experienced skill positions.

It's impossible to predict what a front office might do during the draft, but you can look at free agency and get a pretty good idea. Of our free agents we singed 4 with decent contracts that were either TEs or WRs: Thomas ($3.325m APY), Hurst ($7.25m), Chark ($5m), and Theilen ($8.33m). To put those contracts in perspective only 20 players have higher APY than Thomas, those are get on the field contracts. 2023 NFL Free Agents and Free Agency (overthecap.com) Like I said earlier, nothing is guaranteed, maybe some WR or TE with great value falls, but If I had to guess I'm thinking DE, LB, or CB at 39. From a lot of reports this is a very strong TE class, we might decide we can get good value later. By a lot of reports the WR class is rather thin, I could see us not drafting one at all, or taking more of a project guy later.

I really don't see a TE this early. Teams usually don't spend early picks on positions that they just addressed in Free agency. Same could be said about WRs. Although this a deep TE class so I wouldn't mind one later. I'm thinking more of an edge or 3-4 DE, possibly a CB, decent draft for those. Someone like: Adetomiwa Adebawore Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com Emmanuel Forbes Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com