Verge

Trust.

Also, this.

Nathan Peterman so we don't have this discussion again next year.

Also, no one believes this.

You right. That's why they are drafting Mac Jones

Broncos make the most sense to me personally.

I respect Sax man but my guy told me 1. Wilson 2. Jones 3. Lance as far as the 49ers go.

I think someone buys him for a 2nd-3rd. Could be us, who knows. He will probably be a mid draft trade.

Yeah if Wilson falls to them that would be a certainty, but Wilson falling out of the #2 spot seems outlandish at this point.

Yep. Mac Jones is that dude. I know they do like Lance though.

You think the 49ers traded three first round picks and haven't made up their mind already?

Oh boy. 7-9 and in the hunt for a QB in 2021.

Clipboard Jesus 2.0

Did you guys actually watch PJ play in the NFL?

5 years is recent trends. A QB drafted 10 years ago is not in the same mold or scouting relevancy as a QB drafted in 2021. Scouting is more accurate and QB evaluation has evolved. Recent trends are what you look at. No team is going back to 2012 and asking where they went wrong on the draft board. Teams are asking how are they going to get the next Patrick Mahomes.

Uhh okay. I suck at math Shocker, but I'm bored on a Saturday. I'll do 2014-2019 in a 5 year timeframe for relevancy. So since 2014 (not including 2020 obviously): 19 QBs drafted in the 1st round. Of those 19, 9 ended up busts. Leaving you with a 47% bust rate. As far as after the 1st round you have: 51 QBs drafted, 0 franchise QBs, and 5 starters. Leaving you with a 0% franchise QB rate (obviously not the case, just recent history) and a 9% chance of ending up with a starter.

Lol yep for sure

So when mentioning percentages (I am stupidly bad at math) here is what I mean 32 NFL teams 15 "franchise" QBs (guys who are the no question starter and elite/borderline elite at their position) 12 of those 15 "franchise" QBs were 1st round picks The other three were selected in the 3rd, 4th, and 6th (wonder who that could be) So the very simple math is (god I hope I got this right) says 80% of the NFL franchise QBs in NFL are in the first round. There is a very distinct reason for this. So when you really break down the numbers, the chances of you finding a franchise QB after round one, especially lately, is pretty darn low. Investing capital into it is fools gold. Unless you do hit, which in that case is insanely lucky and makes me look like a complete jackass. If you really want a quality backup QB, just go pay a vet 5 million dollars, draft capital is worth so much more.

Why draft a guy in the 2nd round only to have to trade up next year to draft yet another QB in the 1st? Makes no sense. You are really playing with negative percentages doing that and ultimately risk throwing yet more draft capital out the window for QBs. Makes way more sense if you are really into trying to find a QB to trade our 2nd pick away for future picks in order to have ammunition to move up the next year. Not that I see that happening with us.

Well yeah, but this forum is looking for the answer in the 2nd-3rd round. Not happening. That is where you find the quality backups. Which again, is something we can't really afford IMO.

I should also preface this with, if you are in a good situation as a team with a solid starter and lots of depth it makes complete and total sense to draft a guy like Mond, Jordan Love, etc etc. Developing a physically gifted QB to be a backup or long term solution makes perfect sense if you can afford to do so. Weaker teams with limited depths and lots of holes taking swings at lottery tickets makes your team a hell of a lot worse unless he do hit the golden ticket, and it makes it worse in the long term. This goes without mentioning the fact that if you did draft a developmental guy in round 2 you might convince yourself out of finding the guy the next year because you might have to admit you suck at your job by drafting yet another QB.

Yeah.

To translate that: First round graded QBs typically are not getting out of the top 15. Unless you are some magic wizard GM from a movie, you are typically not hitting on something that everybody else misses. If you need a QB and have a 1st round grade on said QB, but did not take him in the 1st round then you are a moron.