Evil Hurney

Considering it will probably take 2 firsts to snag a non-Lawrence rookie QB of your choice. 3 firsts for a young and proven Watson seems like a MUCH better deal.

A slightly different view...The teams picking after 18 are playoff teams meaning it should be harder for a rookie to come in and contribute day 1. Also, trading down in the early rounds to get additional mid round picks (based on current draft pick values) is generally a good thing from an approximate (player) value standpoint (http://www.footballperspective.com/creating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii/).