gmonjimbo

12 minutes ago, Jay Roosevelt said:

Bryce Young has plenty of arm strength. I don't know where that narrative comes from. Stroud's is a little stronger, but let's not act like Young has a noodle arm.

Also, the narrative that Stroud's accuracy is somehow head and shoulders above Young is misleading as well. He's more accurate, yes, but it's not like Young isn't close. And on the run he's probably more accurate.

I certainly wouldn't have a problem with us drafting C.J. Stroud, but I think a lot of people here are majorly discounting what a special talent Bryce Young is due to his size.

Agreed. Stroud is slightly more accurate than Young on script - clean pocket and throwing window. However, when its throwing on the run or facing direct pressure Bryce is more accurate - which IMO is more important. 

I agree with Kaye's assessment - Bryce is the better QB but in terms of fitting a system and Reich's background with QBs and Stroud fitting more of the prototypical size, I'm thinking Stroud will be the pick. 

I'm conflicted though because how the modern NFL game is played is you need a creator at QB. I could argue that the San Franciso 49ers have had the best system in the NFL the past 4 years - 2 Conference Championship appearances and 1 SB appearance - especially this past year with starting 3 different QBs.

However, it's not too surprising that they came up short to Mahomes, Hurts, and Stafford as they created two or three plays outside their system to win.

I think that's why Kyle decided to go with Trey Lance over Mac Jones because Lance presented a more dynamic element to his game. 

44 minutes ago, trucpfan said:

How do you feel about Mays I have him being our backup with potential starter traits if needed at G. Throw in the G we signed in free agency from Houston we should be good to go.

Oh, I forgot about Justin McCray from the Texans. I think we'll manage then. 

Mays is solid. I like to see how he develops in the offseason as he will have a lot of first-team reps while Corbett and Christensen recover. 

I just want to avoid the days of Dennis Daley, John Miller, and Michael Jordan quality at Guard after Trai Turner fell off.  

I think Guard should be in play with Christensen and Corbett coming off lower leg injuries. 

8 hours ago, ncsfinest21 said:

IMO, I'd rather have the player that played all the games except GA that averaged almost 300 yards passing. Id rather he not scramble but only if he has to but showed you he can. Young tries to scramble he will break apart like a lego. 

That's fine. Pointing out Stroud's areas of improvement doesn't mean he shouldn't be considered for the No.1 pick 

"There’s still room for Stroud to become more comfortable as a creator. He has the athleticism and arm to work off-script, but at times, passes up opportunities to create and struggles to stay in control in those situations. Luckily, Stroud’s final game against Georgia was a very promising development in that regard."

If you look at the new trend of QB's that have come out the last six years: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, etc. They all use their athleticism to create plays off-script (it doesn't mean turning into Michael Vick - it can simply mean extending time in the pocket to find a WR downfield for a big gain) 

I prefer Bryce Young over Stroud because Young can make plays on and off-script consistently over the 20+ games he played. I also like the comments from the Panthers GM about his mental preparation and approach to the game already being at an NFL level. 

I don't think any level-headed Young supporter denies questions about his frame or durability at the next level.

I think the Panthers will draft Stroud. He is the safest pick of all the QBs in this draft. He can run the system that Thomas Brown and Frank Reich will install. Then hopefully get him to a stage where he feels more comfortable using his athleticism (and again not saying read option) to create plays. 

I'm intrigued by Richardson's skillset. I think the Panthers instantly become a top 3 rushing attack in the league. I don't compare him to Trey Lance, as Lance wasn't in Division 1 Football, much less a Power 5 conference, and played 1 game in 2020 due to a shortened season. He had a long layoff of not playing football. 

However, Stroud and Young are more polished at QB. I think for Richardson his private workouts and interviews with teams as they go over his film and ask him about certain plays, calls, protections, etc. will be key. 

I see Frank Reich as conservative. I don't know if it was by choice but taking on QBs like Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan has me thinking he won't invest in Richardson or Bryce Young for that matter. I think the safe pick is Stroud. He plays within the system and can hit all three levels of the field. 

1 hour ago, mrcompletely11 said:

thats exactly what he does, jimbo tried to tie rushing attempts into this and was quickly corrected

I think the point is being missed. I mentioned rushing attempts and mobility within and outside the pocket in the original post. It's more to playstyle not a judgment on a player's performance. CJ is a traditional pocket passer and doesn't move as much as someone with his athletic profile.

What's being discussed is whether he can play more like he did against Georgia or the other games he played at OSU in the NFL. 

55 minutes ago, Martin said:

I’ve only seen a few games, but my feeling is that Young likes to run around and therefore leaves the pocket too early on many occasions, while Stroud hangs in there. What have you seen?

A good game to watch is the game vs Tennessee. I think he threw about 50 times. That game shows his full skillset positive and negative traits. He throws from within and outside the pocket - short, intermediate, and deep passes. Also, I recommend Josh McCown's analysis of Young's game against LSU. It's about 25 minutes long but he goes in-depth on 10 throws Young made in the game 

 My take on Young is he can play well from within and outside the pocket. As a playmaker, he has a tendency to overextend plays or look for the home run instead of simple completion. This was more pronounced in his 2022 season as the talent level at the receiver position at Alabama this year was lackluster compared to their previous 5 years.

Stroud is a prototype pocket passer that stays on script and in rhythm. I think he is a good prospect at QB. Like some posters, my only concerns are adjusting to a receiving core in Carolina or Houston as I don't believe he will go past 2 that are inferior in talent at WR compared to what he had at OSU, along with building off his performance against Georgia where he used his legs more. 

23 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Why do you quote rushing attempts and then shift to mobility in the pocket?   Those aren’t the same thing.    

If you go back to my original statement in the quotes below. I mentioned rush attempts and mobility inside and outside the pocket. I didn't include yards because I'm not advocating for Stroud to run the read option in the NFL. The real crux is does Stroud play more like he did in 1 game vs the 24 others he played. I see Stroud more of a prototypical pocket passer that moves on occasion.

If he moves more within and outside the pocket in the NFL. I can understand McCown's comparison of Stroud to Joe Burrow. Otherwise, I see him in the range of Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Derek Carr - fringe pro bowl-level QBs 

"for Stroud call me dubious in thinking after 79 total rush attempts in 2 years of college and a traditional pocket passer approach to the game he will use his mobility more inside and outside the pocket. What tends to happen in the NFL, is that a QB moves less."

1 hour ago, Wes21 said:

So Nick Saban is going to tell me this guy isn't open, and Bryce should try to run for the first down?  I didn't realize Bryce was just a victim of bad coaching, and that's how Nick told him to play football.  But hey, it was a nice run!

With respect. I can find lowlights and highlights for any QB. In general how do they perform is what im looking at. What Saban said about Bryce is in tune with what Scott Fitterer said about Young two weeks before the Alabama's pro day. 

- Scott Fitterer 

"And the way he talks football, it was so fluid coming out of his mouth. Coaches couldn’t even get the question out and he’s already answering, or he went on to answer before they even asked the question because he understands the game so much.

30 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Um bro, of those 81 attempts it was for a grand total of 0 yards.

 

Of the 49 this year he was at 185 3.8 avg.

 

That tells me he is just running around back there .

 

Stroud didn't need to run basically at all but when he had to Georgia/NU he was pretty good at it

I'm not talking about yards or advocating for Bryce Young to run the read option like I assume the team that drafts Anthony Richardson will. 

I'm talking about mobility within and outside the pocket. There isn't necessarily a quantifiable metric that I'm aware of that tracks - extended plays, rush attempts, or throws on the run into one number for QBs. So I used rush attempts. The idea is that college QB tends to move even less when they enter the NFL - which is understandable. 

The only QB I can think of that moves more in the NFL than they did in College is Justin Fields - who ran an unofficial 4.44 at his pro day. 

35 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I think you probably should have looked at youngs rushing stats before you knock strouds

I did. He had 81 his sophomore year and 49 his final year (also he missed one game and majority of the first game he injured his AC joint). My point isn't based solely on rushing attempts or designed runs. Its more of mobility within and outside the pocket whether it's throwing on the run, running for a first down, extending a play, etc. Any game footage of Young one can see he uses his mobility within and outside the pocket a lot. 

The topic at hand is Stroud's playing style more of one game against Georiga or the 24 other games he played at Ohio State. I lean towards the latter which is a traditional pocket passer that may occasionally use his legs for first downs and extend plays but is not part of his repertoire.

Therefore, I see him in the mold of the aforementioned QBs. 

2 hours ago, Wes21 said:

You are basically saying he didn't bother looking at read #3 and just locked onto his 1st or 2nd read.  Then he scrambled around until he could get the ball to his 1st or 2nd read.  That's not a good thing.  And certainly not good for a guy who people claim is an other wordly processor of information.

I can excuse it if it was a one off.  But its all over his film.  That's the problem.

I doubted CJ as well.  I only bothered going back to the film because we traded up to the #1 pick.  I found out a few things.  One, I found that he is still growing and evolving as a QB.  So some of my initial criticisms have ironed out over time.  But secondly, I found the kind of film you want to see from a guy that has question marks about working out of rhythm and out of structure and always throwing to wide open guys.  The film is there with him working out of rhythm.  There is just less of it.  But its there.  So as I go thru the film and see the progression, to me the Georgia game was just an extension of what he had already shown and what he was growing to become.  He was just forced to do alot of it that game due to the defense he was playing.

I liked Bryce until I watched the film.  It sounds great that he's a playmaker.  But its problematic when the guy is not seeing the field and not hitting the open receivers like he should.  He's turning down too many throws to run around and play hero ball.  I am reminded of a play from Anthony Richardson in the 2021 season that his coach commented on.  At first blush people were excited about it because the line didn't block for poo, noone one was open and AR made a great play to make something out of it and get 20+ yards on a run.  After the game when asked about it the coach said something to the effect of "you guys get excited about those plays, I don't.  He missed the protection call and that's why the pass rush was in his face.  Then he missed the hot AND the primary on the same play.  Then he took off running and you guys think its great.  He's got alot to learn."  That's how I see Bryce right now.  Part of his spectacular plays are because he's missing reads.  I don't cherry pick every single play.  I understand that if we are not in the QB room, we don't have the full story of what was actually going on.  But what I am seeing on film is eye opening.

I respect your opinion and the time you spent looking at Young's film. What gives me cause to pause on your analysis is multiple scouting reports that say he can see the whole field and Nick Saban saying Bryce was like an extra coach on their staff, then contrast it with your input that he doesn't see the field and doesn't know where his receivers should be. Maybe you have the smoking gun 

Also, for Stroud call me dubious in thinking after 79 total rush attempts in 2 years of college and a traditional pocket passer approach to the game he will use his mobility more inside and outside the pocket. What tends to happen in the NFL, is that a QB moves less.

To give context Mahomes, Burrow, Josh Allen, and Trevor Lawerence had about 70+ rush attempts in their final seasons as collegiate athletes. 

I think Stroud's comparison and mobility fit more into Jared Goff, Geno Smith, Derek Carr, and Kirk Cousin molds.  Those are pro-bowl-level QBs with great accuracy. 

19 minutes ago, DonPoas said:

Just wanted to say good post and hard to argue with what you bring to light here.  I like them both, but my gut tells me Bryce.  With that said it is difficult to not be put off by all of the too-smallsr noise out there.  

Thanks. At the end of the day, I trust the experience of this coaching staff to develop the QB they choose at 1 into a quality starter even if it's Levis. 

The concerns about Bryce's frame are warranted. Like you my gut says Bryce. I don't think any QB in this class has a better signature game and win on tape than Alabama vs Georgia 2021 SEC Championship

Georgia had an even better defense last year - 5 of their players went in the first round last year (Jorda. Davis, Quay Walker, Travon Walker, Wyatt, and Cine) and combine it with the 3 projected on defense to go in the first this year (Ringo, Jalen Carter, and Nolan Smith). They had a defense of 8 first-rounders, allowing 6 points a game entering their SEC championship game vs Alabama. They lost and gave up 41 points as Bryce set the SEC championship record for passing yards and threw 3 TDs.

Georgia ended up getting their revenge in the championship, but we do have to point out that Metchie and Williams Alabama's top two receivers tore their ACLs before the game and in Wiliams's case beginning of the second quarter. 

19 minutes ago, Martin said:

My opinion is that if you believe in your system and want a QB to mostly work within that system, Stroud is your guy. If you prioritize someone excelling and extending plays outside of the system you pick Young. Both players are very good at both, but Stroud has an edge within the system. Again, just my opinion.

Agree 100%

1 hour ago, Wes21 said:

What you just said is certainly the narrative of the season and Bryce Young's situation.  I ran with that until we jumped up to the #1 pick.  That's when I went back and actually reviewed the film.  The film tells a different story.  Bryce was turning down open throws and I have been posting play after play where it has happened.  I will give some more examples.

On this play there are 3 different guys that are different versions of "open."  I'd say the guy standing at the far sideline is the hardest throw to make.  However, if you look at CJ Stroud's game film he would already be in his throwing motion at the point where I snapped this pic.  One of the receivers would have caught it and it would have looked like an easy pass and catch.  On to the next play.  Bryce didn't throw it to any of these guys.  He threw the ball away and the announcer said "nobody was open so Bryce just gets rid of it."

I can't really see the guy on the far left if there is a defender there. I see two guys that are open for a 4-yard gain, making it 3rd and 7.

I don't disagree that QB's that are playmakers or have elite arm talent have a tendency to go for the big play or more difficult throw instead of opting for the simple pass and completion.

However, I push back on the idea he made the receivers look worse than they are. Burton isn't getting drafted and JaCorey Brooks may be a Day 3 pick in 2024 draft. When he had comparable talent at receiver to Ohio State in Metchie and Jameson Williams (who ironically transferred from Ohio State) he won the Heisman and is the only QB to beat Georgia in the last two seasons. 

Stroud is a safe investment at worst I can see him being 15-17th best QB in the NFL. However, at best I see him being 7th to 8th. His ceiling is around the good version of Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, and Dak Prescott . All those guys are accurate and get the ball out quick and if you have a strong roster around them, can make a playoff run. Yet, they lack the playmaking ability of the QBs in the top 5.

For Stroud, one could argue if he is taken by the Panthers or Texans that he will have an inferior receiving core compared to what he had at OSU. A lot is made about his performance against Georgia. However, after Harrison JR went out with 35 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, OSU was up 14 entering the 4th. They scored 3 points the remaining way. 

12 hours ago, Wes21 said:

After watching the film I have the stance that Bryce makes his supporting cast look worse than it is.  When he turns down open throws in structure to play out of structure, it makes it seem like noone was open.  And since he's holding onto the ball so long, it makes it seem like the line can't block because the pass rush gets to him.  

There are plays that CJ throws a dime on time for an easy completion and Bryce in a similar setup turns down the throw and starts dancing around before trying to throw a hero ball.

I have to respectfully disagree. I'm an LSU fan so I watch the SEC West closely. This past season was the worst supporting cast of receivers that Alabama has had in a while. Their RB, Jahmyr Gibbs was their best offensive threat and should be a late first - early second round pick. Jermaine Burton leading receiver (677) was a transfer from Georgia and JaCorey Brooks second-leading receiver this year, was their 8th leading last year. 

To me this is actually one of the selling points of Bryce Young. I got to see what he looked like without Jameson Williams and John Metchie, who combined for 2700+ receiving yards and 20+ TDs the previous year. That is a lot of production to replace, yet Alabama was in every game it played and lost by a combined 4 points to Tennesse and my LSU Tigers. 

I don't remember which poster said it but they mentioned that it would be a bit gutless move to take the lesser prospect because your concerned that the better prospect might get injured. 

This is like the fourth or fifth statement about Bryce Young's tape making it difficult to pass on him at 1. 

I've tried to buy into Stroud being the better prospect by watching 5 of his games. He's a good QB and would have definitely been a top 5 pick even last year. He just isn't a better QB than Bryce. He is slightly more accurate with a stronger arm. Outside of that, Bryce is a better playmaker, has stronger instincts, and commander of an offense. 

5 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

History is what I'm going with, not hope....it's fine to go with hope, it's fun, but not normally as productive.

How long is the list of QB's (that are good) that have been sub 6' tall?  Not 6', sub 6'.

Again, I'm not knocking Young, and were he just 3" taller, and or 20#s heavier/thicker, I'd be in his camp all day...and screaming about it from the rooftops.  However, he's not.  Now, I'm not a fan of where CJ went to school, but that doesn't bother me as much as not being a fan of Young's size.

 

I think your points are warranted. However, we don't have enough data yet. Being under Six-foot QB trying to enter the NFL in the 80s, 90s, and 00s was usually two options - switch positions or alternative football league. With the success of Russel Wilson. It has opened the door for Kyler Murray and Bryce Young to be in consideration as no.1 overall picks. 

Also, the NFL game is still very much physical but the rules in the pocket have made it more digestable to consider undersized players. 

Even me as a pro Bryce supporter wouldn't consider him highly if this was pre Brady and Rodgers rule of not going low or putting full body weight on QB. 

11 minutes ago, stan786 said:

I do agree with cant be corrected, but I guess we've seen QBs that cant handle pressure eaten up in the NFL to a pretty high degree, Goff had one of the best QB coaches in the league and couldnt handle it. Its not like some of the issues Stroud could potentially have are easy to fix either.

We both are going to be happy about drafting either of them, I guess I feel lately people just put total blinders up to legit hard to fix issues Stroud could potentially have but have a free for all going at something no one knows how big of an issue it really is.

But I guess its more of one of those, people like the fear of the known more than the unknown.

Enjoyed reading your post. My main concern about Stroud is how to separate his individual brilliance as a prospect versus the team around him.

Looking at 2022 actual , 2023, and 2024 mock drafts 5 WRs (Ebuka, Harrison Jr, Jaxon Smith, Wilson, and Olave) and 3 OL (Bookend Tackles and Guard) from OSU drafted or projected to go in first round 

I'm fine with Young, Stroud, and even Richardson. However, why I prefer Young over the two is I saw how he performed without Metchie and Jameson Williams this year and still had a great season.

Nick Saban mentioning yesterday that he was like another coach on their roster in terms of preparation tells me he has the makings of a field general like what Kuechly was for the defense. I don't think that is something easily taught and could take Stroud or Richardson 3-5 years to maybe even reach where Bryce is now in commanding an offense. 

25 minutes ago, bobcat91 said:

 

First. I acknowledge that Bryce Young's frame is a concern and if he was 6"4 225, it wouldn't be a debate on who the consensus top QB is.

Now that's out of the way. The frustration that I have about durability concerns is when does a player's tape and injury history come into effect. Typically past behavior is the best indicator of future success.

Bryce Young played two years in the SEC - a conference littered with NFL defensive talent. I know players in the NFL are bigger and faster. My point is he played to the closest level to NFL competition and missed one game as a starter. 

Unless you have Patrick Mahomes, SB windows are probably 2-3 years in a decade window. I think Young is best ready to be a Day 1 starter and get the Panthers into playoffs year 1. 

18 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

I don't understand the reasoning that we have to pick the QB that helps us win now.

Surely you want the QB that's going to be the best one in 5 years?

I think the nature of rookie qb deals incentives teams to put all their chips on the table to win now before having your QB take up a quarter or more of the cap in an extension.

Also, teams like the Rams and Bucs signing older established QBs to accelerate their championship window. Something the Jets are trying to do now with a potential trade for Aaron Rodgers 

Therefore, it's important said rookie QB can hit the ground running. The NFC south is up for grabs.

59 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

He's only generational between the ears (which, yes, is the most important part). He's simply too small to risk two first round picks, two second round picks and your WR1 on. 

Of the two recent comparisons, both Wilson and Murray were bigger (stockier), more mobile and with better arms. 

I actually liked Simms' comment (not sure if it was in the Young evaluation or the Richardson one) where he said "his floor is 'he's too small to play in the NFL'". That's terrifying for a GM - that's not something that has blindsided you 6 months after you Draft him, you're picking him knowing it's a distinct possibility.

I'm not going to argue against his frame or height. The concern is warranted. I pushback when comparing him to Tua (not saying you), when Tua definitely showed signs of being injury prone with reportedly five surgeries in college.

I think if Young and Stroud have similar draft grades. On the safe side, I would go with Stroud. 

However, I think Young is better than Stroud when it comes to commanding a game - excellent spatial awareness reading the defense, and knowing where his receivers need to be. I think he can evaluate the players around him. 

I'm not sure yet about Stroud. I can't fault him but he will probably have thrown to five first round NFL receivers during his college.

1 hour ago, Ivory Panther said:

I'm not interested at all in QB workouts at the combine or pro day. You have heard the same from Scott Fitt today basically. 

they are throwing against air to wide open players. Though CJ was impressive there, It holds no water to me.

The best pure passer is something to build on, but nobody, I repeat nobody has ever said "generational" to describe CJ's game. Again, very good and I will support him and hope he can turn into a Burrow rather than Goff. But with pick 1, I'm taking generational processing traits.

I agree with you, Ivory. I think Bryce Young is a generational prospect at QB and I'm an LSU fan. I think it says something to be the consensus No.1 QB in high school, then validate that ranking by winning the Heisman. Alabama wasn't as strong at WR or OL this year compared to the recent history. 

His frame is a concern. Yet, if we judge by his history, he's missed one game as a starter in the conference that produces the most NFL-ready defensive linemen. 

I think CJ Stroud is a good player. I just think of "safe pick". He has the least concerns about the QB, yet I don't see him cracking the top 7 QB in the league.

I trust the coaching staff to use the next month to evaluate, interview, and whiteboard sessions to pick their guy. At the end of the day, it's their necks on the chopping block. 

23 minutes ago, Hogan said:

I've been going to games for a long time. I remember when I was in college in 1977, I went to the Final Four in Atlanta. UNC's Mike O'Koren had a career game hisinst UNLV scoring 31 points. That ONE game on the national stage paved the way for his being an All-American from '78 to '80. I saw nearly every game in his college career. The point: He was good but not that good. That ONE game stayed in the minds of people nationally who didn't see him game in and game out. His

reer proved he was an average player.

The question: I saw a lot written about Stroud in the fall, people saying never take an Ohio State QB because of their NFL track record. There were lots of questions about him in the fall. Then came the Georgia game and the question is: Is that who Stroud really is? Or, did he simply have a career game on the biggest stage, like O'Koren?

I don't remember what analyst said it but he mentioned that Hall of Fame Coach Bill Walsh use to tell his scouts to discard a player's top 5 worst highlights along with their top 5 best highlights, and somewhere in-between is the best gauge of projecting how said player will translate to the pros. 

I'm thinking a lot of noise has been made of Strouds performance against Georgia. In between I think he is a solid qb that can make plays on script. When things break down I don't see much brilliance in his play.

I think he is Jared Goff. Goff at his best is in the top 8-15 best QB in the league when everything is on script. However, when he faces pressure or doesn't have the supporting cast, he can plummet into late teens to early 20s in QB rank, where you are questioning if you should look for an upgrade at QB