KB_fan

Baldy did a bunch of breakdowns following the Texans game.  Don't think they've been posted here yet.

8 different Tweets.  I'll post all below, one each per comment to make replies easier..

I'll post more tomorrow....

Down goes another undefeated team!

And then there were 5....!

1 hour ago, Peon Awesome said:

Just switched over to Redzone. Greg Olsen is calling the Bears-Browns game. Very cool

Very excited to have Greg calling our game vs Dallas next week.

6 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

It would be nice to see how our situational 3rd down conversions compare to league averages. 

I'll see what I can find on this, but it may not be until after the Dallas game. I'm traveling for 4 days later this week.

7 hours ago, glenwo2 said:

^^^^

So the only negative play is when he kneeled down to run the clock out.   Nice.

There was a sack on 3rd down in the 1st half too. But yeah, no negative plays on 3rd down in 2nd half when you exclude the kneel.

Beginning my look at week 3 game log.  Here's a summary of the Panthers performance on 3rd & 4th downs versus Houston:

What really strikes me: 

1) The success in converting some key 3rd & longs. (3/5 not counting a penalty play)

2) The efficiency of our drives - especially in the 2nd half.  In the second half, not counting a kneel on the final drive of the game, we faced only four 3rd/4th downs and converted three of them (3/4 = 75%).

Only FOUR 3rd/4th down attempts in 35 plays in the 2nd half!!! (Contrast that with 7 3rd/4th down attempts on 35 plays in the 1st half)

Here's the summary table for week 3. 

Here are the details from the game log:

Sam.  No question.  He really did put the team on his back.

Haason Reddick.  Stablizing force on the D and for the team when things got very tough.  You could see his leadership & maturity and hear it in his post-game presser.  Huge plays.  Not sure we would have won without him on the field.  Just something about him. Wow.

DJ Moore.  All the man does is make clutch catches, especially on 3rd down.  Such a weapon.

Shout outs to the guys who stepped up.  Tremble, Erikson, Chuba, Royce.  And to Zane for making all the kicks, including some touchbacks. They were needed. For awhile the kicking was the margin of difference. Gave just enough cushion while we were reeling until the offense settled down again.

I didn't make predictions for either Jets or Saints games, so in order to stick with what's working, I'll refrain.

35 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Very good point. 

Having a talented secondary helps our defense so much. Just the coverage we were able to do against the Saints allowed for our front to feast and the whole defense to crank out their fury.

Jaycee shutting down his part of the field is critical to their success.

Absolutely. That Baldy clip 2 days ago showed just how great the coverage was and how it allowed the rush to totally stymie Jameis.

31 minutes ago, coffee said:

It's too early to do this and there's a ton of "yeah, but . . ."s.

But screw it!

After 2 games, the '85 Bears D had allowed . . .

35 points.  We've allowed 21.
27 1st downs.  Us: 22
513 total yards. Us: 380
     320 pass yards.  Us: 287
     193 rush yards.  Us: 93

They had 8 sacks.  We've had 10.


To be continued . . .

Nice.

1 hour ago, Oldschool Leroy said:

I used to get the all 22 on gamepass, is there other ways for average folks to get it?

I unsubscribed from Gamepass this season since I'm Stateside and don't need it to watch Panthers games.  

As far as I know the only All 22 that's available to folks right now is if you use a VPN and access international gamepass, but I haven't tried... Just seeing chatter about it on Twitter.

47 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

This game should be over by halftime.

That reminds me, I saw a stat today that Panthers are the only team in the league to never play from behind this season.  And the only team to keep opponents scoreless in the first half!

5 hours ago, BurnNChinn said:

Here we go lol.

Too bad.  We can only play the schedule we're given.  Not our fault if it's "easy"

18 minutes ago, PanthersGOATFan336 said:

Humor me this...the last say 5 or so superbowl champions what were they ranked in terms of overall offense and defense?

I can look that up later tonight if no one beats me to it.  I'm about to sign off for a bit, but will be back on around 9 pm.

3 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

You really cannot copy how, where and when to use these concepts.  You can watch video on formations and personnel and try to copy them sure. But knowing when, where and how is something completely different.  That comes from experience. 

And some of these guys have years of experience running it under Snow at Temple & Baylor.  I know we all groan and joke a bit about Rhule's love for his former players, but I think we're beginning to see why he did it...

Anyone have a handy breakdown of how many Temple / Baylor players we have on offense vs. defense on the current roster?  I can look later, but want to catch up on some other things first.

3 hours ago, BlitzMonster said:

The 2020 draft was fantastic at adding serious defensive talent to this team.   And adding Horn & Bouye might be the last pieces of this puzzle.   Being able to have CB who can go single coverage on talented receivers really opens up the possibilities for exotic blitzes and crazy pressure on the QB.  

Horn & Bouye were a serious upgrade to our secondary for sure.

But I think adding DaQuan was equally huge.  He appears to be a big part of the reason why we've all of a sudden finally improved against the run after just STINKING in that for a few seasons.

3 hours ago, TheRumGone said:

I was watching some nfl program where one guy said that snow does a lot of stuff you see on the offensive side of the ball only with defensive players. Not sure what that means. But then another former Dallas player said snow’s defense reminded him a lot of wade phillips.

Yeah, I think I saw that too.  Basically talked about using one of our D line guys like you would use a pulling guard on the O line.... 

4 hours ago, OneBadCat said:

Man I love it but we're two games in. Can we pump the brakes a little?

I hear you... and my history with the Panthers makes me cringe and prepare for the fall when we start getting hyped....

But still, gotta say, it's so fun this week to see heads exploding.  You can practically see the reactions live as people look at the defensive stats.  "Like WTH?!!!!  Panthers are leading in EVERY MAJOR defensive stat?  #1 in DVOA?  How the H is this happening??!!!"  So many analysts (not to mention opposing Offensive Coordinators) are now scrambling to try and figure out what is going on!!  

I'm here for the ride!  Hope it's a long one all the way to the playoffs....!

8 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

Third and eight as the average? Wow! 

The percentage of conversion on 3rd and 8 for pro teams can't be very high, even for the best teams.

Still, we're at a heck of a pace for defensive efficiency right now. It's hard to tell if it is the quality of the competition (or lack thereof) or if we're just really killing it out there. Time will tell but with the schedule ahead of us, it's going to be very hard to win over the sceptics until the last fourth of the season.

 

I'd love to find data on how often teams are in 3rd & long, and what the conversion % is.  

I did some searching today, but I've not (yet) been able to find any site that provides data  for the NFL on 3rd down by distance, e.g. to calculate how good teams are at converting 3rd & longs. 

If anyone has any leads on where to find that data, I'd love to know.

I did find an article / site that tracked that for college football:

https://staturdays.com/2021/01/14/comparing-third-down-conversion-rate-by-distance-to-go/

In 2020, the average college team converted 3rd & 7 / 3rd & 8 about 36% of the time, and 3rd & 9 or 3rd & 10 about 31% of the time.

So far Panthers are converting 3rd and long (7 yards and longer) about 18% of the time.  But it was widely uneven (0% Jets) (33% Saints).

Panthers Defense is holding opposing defenses to 26% average conversion rate on 3rd & long.  (38% Jets, 22% Saints).