Santee_Panther

On 8/28/2021 at 11:36 AM, Ace420 said:

2015 Cam and prime Jordan Gross for this team.

Our wrs are good so we don't need smitty and our defensive ends are good so we don't need peppers.

Luke Kuekley was tempting, but Cam is more important.

This is the right answer and also my rationale.

New Orleans makes sense.

Just our luck, he goes there and lights us up twice a year.

This week I learned if your GM is good at trades you should be able to trade for an All Pro LT for a 6th round draft pick while getting a player on a league minimum deal.

From the article, LBs and OLs:

5 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Competent vs 3rd stringers

Thanks. I mean, he can’t control who he plays against. If you don’t notice them, they’re doing well, right?

Don’t forget Brown and Tremble!

Can’t watch game. How’s BC looked at LT?

14 minutes ago, Santee_Panther said:

My starting point for projecting the 53 is to look at players locked up through the next year. History shows more often than not they make the cut. Of course bottom of the roster guys are less likely (Fletcher?):

Players under contract for the next 2 years:

QB- Darnold, Grier

RB- CMC, Hubbard, Brown, Clark

FB-

WR- Moore, Anderson, Marshall, Smith, Saunders, Bayless

TE- Arnold, Tremble

OT- Moton, Erving, Christensen

OG- Daley, Brown, Moore

C- Elflein

 

DT- Brown, Roy, Nixon, Hoskins

DE- Burns, Reddick, YGM, Fox

MLB- 

OLB- Shaq, Miller

DB- Horn, Bouye, Pride, Taylor, Thomas-Oliver

S- Chinn, Franklin, Hartsfield

 

Special teams: Fletcher, Charlton

Looks like I missed David Moore (WR)

My starting point for projecting the 53 is to look at players locked up through the next year. History shows more often than not they make the cut. Of course bottom of the roster guys are less likely (Fletcher?):

Players under contract for the next 2 years:

28 minutes ago, Raleigh PF said:

He's not. The Panthers picked up his 5th year option. They have him until at least the end of next year.

Ok, fair enough. Forgot that one, but the player I listed was drafted one spot ahead of DJ, and has his 5th year picked up as well. So it would still work. Would you trade DJ for a quality, young LT?

If traded today? He’s in the final year of his contract, can’t get a ton for that. Is there a decent LT in the final year of his contract?

Perhaps a LT like Wynn with the Patriots. Some injury history, but when on the field is strong. Same draft class as DJ. 

Would Butker still be on his rookie contract…

Oh man…

1 hour ago, KSpan said:

Just to play devil's advocate here, that means 3 of the top FAs signed this off-season at positions of need are injured (Erving), look bad (Elflein), or gone (Perryman). Not ideal.

True, but year 2 of a rebuild not the time for big FA spending.

Reddick (OLB, $6mil, 1 year)

Erving (OG, $10mil total over 2 years)

Moore (WR, $4.8 mil over 2 years)

Elflein (T/G, $13mil over 3 years)

Fox (DT, $8mil over 2 years)

Jones (DT, $4mil 1 yr)

Bouye (CB, $7mil over 2 Years)

Arnold (TE, $7mil over 2 years)

Perryman (MLB, $6mil over 2 years)

Starters out of that group? Reddick, Bouye, maybe one of the DTs? Perhaps Arnold and maybe one of those OLs? Not a bad hit rate. Pretty low risk signings here. 
 

Draft strong, re-sign solid players. Fill in the gaps with inexpensive short term deals. 

Vegas odd for Panthers making the playoffs are about +260, which implies 27% chance.

Teams worse:

Bengals +500

Lions +750

Texans +800

Jags +300

Raiders +350

Jets +550

Eagles +275

38 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I have a lot more confidence in our WRs than I do in Sam Darnold. They may have had a rough day as a unit, but Moore and Anderson are proven NFL commodities. Marshall is a talented rookie. Smith is a promising rookie. If Darnold doesn't deliver this season, I highly doubt it'll be because of our WR corps.

Let’s not turn this thread into an OL thread, ha!

Just now, frankw said:

Yeah the coddling has officially gotten out of hand. Darnold is unproven and needs to be a leader of men not treated like he's still in pampers. You can publicly trash your receivers only so many times before it has a negative effect on the locker room.

Is it coddling if the WRs actually had more drops than typical? I get it that you can have a "drop" where the ball is overthrown and the receiver barely gets a hand on it, and then you have drops where the QB puts it right on you and you alligator arm it. Not all drops are created equal.

3 minutes ago, bythenbrs said:

Uh, statistics much?  Never heard of rounding up to the next significant digit?

The "average" Hall of Fame quarterback has had a completion percentage of 59.1%. So there's that...

Pro Football QB Hall of Fame Monitor | Pro-Football-Reference.com

1 hour ago, Icege said:

 

The epic LS battle!

Any (potential) compensation is better than a straight out cut. 
 

Plus, by jettisoning him now it opens up more playing times for other guys. 

Of course not Panthers related, but Eli will be an interesting QB case. 

So if Smitty, Pep and Luke are locks, and Mills is possible but iffy, who is next most likely?

Cam? Olsen? Thomas Davis?

None of those seem likely according to “the numbers” here

This author predicts Mills gets elected next year and Smith not until the year after. Then Peppers and Luke as first year ballot guys. 

I believe if Mills doesn’t make it next year he moves to “senior” status. Sounds like most believe Smith, Peppers and Luke are three locks of when, not if HOFers. 

https://thegruelingtruth.com/football/predicting-the-next-five-pro-football-hall-of-fame-classes/

Details of the deal from otc.com: 

2021 Cap hit of $4mil. $15mil signing bonus. Guaranteed salaries of $1mil in '21, $16mil in '22 and $11mil in '23. Easy out/cut after '23. 

Taylor Moton Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Greg Olsen on Twitter: "Thank you for the outpouring of ! TJ is in surgery now and we’re anxiously waiting for more updates. Thank you for keeping our little buddy in your prayers! #playforTJ" / Twitter

“Enforcer”

That’s what the position would be called according to this 4 year old article from The Ringer. 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/8/14/16141666/nfl-positional-lexicon-rewrite