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The Goddamn Jets

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Everything posted by The Goddamn Jets

  1. He's got a lot of the measurables you look for, and he had that Rose Bowl performance.
  2. Agreed. But, the decision to weight his lack of experience is not accidental or without merit. College starts do hold some weight in correlation to success in the pros. This was a big concern with Sanchez. His QBASE was disastrously low, and we traded up for him because we're dumb. And, no surprise, he was awful. Two things happen with more college starts: 1) Sample size improves for evaluation, and 2) QBs learn and gain more experience in live action against hopefully higher competition than they got in HS. As for sample sizes, if Darnold has another year in college that looks like his junior year, not his sophomore, you think he's still a top QB? He was smart to come out when he did - pure business decision. I truly believe his camp is very smart, and maximizing his earnings to the best of their ability before he ultimately flames out.
  3. QBASE is a mathematical formula that does it's best to predict a college QB's potential in the NFL. Have you read about it before? https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/introducing-qbase-v20 It takes in a lot of factors, and it's greatest success rate is in predicting busts. It seems to do so at a higher rate than traditional scouting. It basically called Darnold a 50/50 prospect to bust. Based on even what you're saying about him being 'unfinished' or 'needing development,' sort of speaks to that, no? These are all things that very easily may not work out. As for NFL success, coaching/stability and fit may all be hindsight analysis. Bad QBs get coaches fired. Darnold has put a lot of coaches out of jobs. Good QBs keep coaches in their jobs. Belichick has stated in the past it was his expectation to be fired after the season Bledsoe got hurt and Brady came in, but then Brady...
  4. Yeah - I don't think you guys made a bad decision, based on these factors, and what you paid. It's a relatively low risk gamble. We'll see how it goes - obviously I'll be following along - I just think he's another USC QB who didn't work out when he wasn't surrounded by talent that overwhelmed the opponent. Let's not forget that, coaching and talent aside, QBASE had him at a 52% bust rate, 2nd highest of the 1st round QBs (only to Allen, who has been a literal unicorn when it comes to all the statistical measures) - so we shouldn't be terribly surprised when a guy who the best metric we have for predicting duds at the position said it was > 50% he'd bust. The funny thing is, I soured on Darnold at the combine, and then convinced myself it was nothing. When Darnold stood next to Allen, Rosen, and Mayfield - all of them slinging the ball around, and he didn't participate, something about that was just so telling to me... Felt like he wasn't a competitor; scared, maybe. Of course, when he fell to us, I pretended that never happened or was a smart business decision because he didn't want to be upstaged by Allen's arm.
  5. I think the supporting cast argument is certainly reason for hope, but you can overthrow a great WR in the same way you can a lesser one, and you can not see a bad receiver the same way you can not see a great one. I also think there's merit to the fact that last year, not just Mims, but he's a good example, played two or three games with Flacco, vs. a bunch more with Darnold. Two of his 3 top games were with Flacco.
  6. Nothing all that interesting, unfortunately. By all accounts he's a good kid that keeps to himself. I have heard some stories about him going out to the bars after games and getting so lit up that his teammates have had to drag him home. Nothing all that interesting there, and it sort of tracks with his age and the mono thing.
  7. That's fairly tame. I'm no longer invited to family functions on my wife's side.
  8. Mel Kiper, 2017: "I think when you look back at John Elway, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, we're going to view Sam Darnold in that same light." Sounds like someone doesn't want to admit that they were, maybe, just a bit off here.
  9. I think what people forget is that the Buttfumble happened on Thanksgiving. So, yes. The Jets, and specifically, Mark Sanchez, ruined Thanksgiving.
  10. "Gase was criticized for his painfully horizontal offense, but have we considered the possibility that it was a result of Darnold’s own limitations as a passer?" This is why the Gase argument falls flat. We can all agree that Gase was a failure of a head coach. But, what the "it's all gase" argument asks you to accept is that he was so inept, it was as if he doesn't generally understand basic concepts of football. And, frankly, that's a funny position to take on the internet or talk radio, but you don't become an NFL head coach without the ability to recognize the this us idiots see plain as day. There have been plenty of people around Darnold, you'd think, if some of this were able to be fixed, we'd see at least some signs of it. He's also had Palmer as an independent QB coach.
  11. No, but I grew up in the town the Sopranos was shot, and saw that quite a lot.
  12. When trying to make an Apples to Apples comparison about a QB "getting it together," yes they are. Nobody says it took 4 years for Aaron Rodgers to figure it out.
  13. The next season, he played against 5 of the bottom 6 defenses in the league, with the 2nd easiest schedule in the league. His performances were a nightmare, and he graded out as a bottom 3 QB, despite the wins and the cupcake defenses. And, re: Brees, starts are more important than age or years. By starts, Brees was killing it, while Darnold was working towards 2-14 and grading out worse than then Taysom Hill and Jalen Hurts and others.
  14. I'm disappointed I have to root against you guys for the sake of my newly minted 2nd round pick, but here we are... That, and I have to root against Darnold because being right on the internet is the most important thing in life.
  15. I have my concerns. Not much more I can say. I'd be open to trading #2, still. And, I wouldn't hate Fields. But, it sees Wilson is the guy, so here we go!
  16. Alright, I guess it's time for that JetFan vs. The Goddamn Jets fight that was posited... Darnold did have those problems his rookie year. Pre-Gase, he was the 30+ in DVOA and DYAR and threw for under 200 yards in over half of his games. So, overall, it was a very bad year by a QB. You're speaking specifically to the end of the year. But, Jets fans like to pretend the post-injury end of the year was 2 games, not 4. He had a great game against Green Bay (terrible defense that year), and a good game against Houston. But, in the other two of them, he threw for 170 yards and 167 yards and a combined 1 TD and 1 INT. So, here's what actually happened. He had a bad rookie season. But, because he had a great game, and a good game at the end of it, people assumed this was a representation of improvement and a sign of things to come. A cocktail of recency bias, wishful thinking, and small sample sizes. They ignored the two duds (50%) he put up post injury as well. Then, the evil Adam Gase came along, and when Darnold didn't maintain his Houston and Green Bay performances, but rather, performed as he did most of his rookie season, they blamed Gase, rather than accepting the two performances as the anomalies they've proven to be. As for Tannenhill - He was much better under Gase than Darnold was under Gase. He is, simply, a better player. As for Brees - He played very well in his fourth year in the league, but it was his 3rd year actually playing, and only 27 prior starts. Sam Darnold has played 3 years, was a disaster in year 3, and had a similar 26 prior starts leading into the year. So, after 26/27 starts, Brees went 11-4, throwing for 3100 yards, 65% completion, and 27 TDs to 7 INTs while Sam went 2-10 throwing for 2200 yards, 59% completion, and 9 TDs to 11 INTs, and is PFF's worst QB in the NFL and 2nd worst when removing throws under pressure.
  17. Give me the big duck. Tiny horses sound adorable. I don't watch enough college ball to have a well informed opinion. I'm scared of him for the reason's anyone is: Size, injury history, competition, maybe a douche. Still, I probably take my chances on him. As stated before, last time we waited on a QB, we passed on Watson and Mahommes, to suck for Sam, and we traded #6, and 3 2nds for Darnold, and you saw how well that worked. Sure, we can get a lot more for the pick, but thanks to the Adams trade, we're picking again in the 1st round this year, twice next year, and we now have your 2nd next year. That's got to be sufficient to build a team around any QB. Will Zach Beiber be good? I don't know. But I think the right play is to find out.
  18. I think your answer will come in how it happens, if it happens the way you're predicting. If it's all quick drop, one read stuff, where his decision making is limited, with a mix of designed roll outs, you can probably say it's scheme. If he looks like a different QB. Going through his progressions, smart with the football, understanding what a defense is giving him, then something's clicked.
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