Panthers8969

Yall were so happy when we signed him lol

I mean seriously, why even make this topic? It's bad enough we dont have the pick we dont need to be reminded of all the different possibilities the bears have to become a real franchise as we stay dog poo with no picks. Usually bad teams cant stay bad for long bc of the draft but we found a way! cudos

3 hours ago, 45catfan said:

I thought is was the RAS?  Personally I look at production.  Why is that so hard for our scouting department to get?  They think they can project a guy to the NFL who has a high RAS, but for some reason was a JAG in college.  Take production over any other metric, period.  I mean a WR can be ripped and live in the weight room, but if he can't run solid routes or can't catch a cold, does it matter how fast or ripped he is? 

RAS is heavily weighted (pun intended) by body weight. Mingo running a 4.46 is a solid time for sure, but that resulted in a 9.99 RAS speed score. Is he actually in the 99th percentile for speed in the league? No, of course not. And then his agility testing, like a lot of heavier WRs, just wasn’t good at all. 

7 hours ago, Ricky Prickles said:

Oh okay so you know pretty much nothing about him then.

So he didn't lead his team in yards last season?

So most of his 1255 yards receiving came against one team last year? Must have benn on hell of a game! How many did he get versus this one team since he got MOST of his yards versus this one team?

Yes, this must 'need to be explained' as far as the NFL goes smart guy:

Tell me about his NFL production and how he has zero since he was in college last year and the damn thread is based upon the digging senior bowl (for college players last I checked?)

Can't run routes? So you scouted all his routes? Did you scout them as good as the rest of your points you make here?

Your points are all bull poo especially where you mention he has no NFL experience. Well, no poo he was in college last year.

 And whats this "y'all think he is Tyreek Hill"? Who is "y'all"? If love to see where I ever compared him to Tyreek Hill if you wouldn't my mind showing me. 

Your points are negated by the fact that you are for some odd reason trying to be some sort of analyst that you are most definitely not. The guy has some tools to POTENTIALLY be a solid receiver even though you don't like him for some funny reason like the fact that he has "no NFL stats" yet! Hahaha!! 

Thanks for the laugh genius!

 

Clearly about Mingo lolol. I had a whole section about the nfl and instead of thinking maybe we’re talking about different players your conclusion is instead that I’m just that stupid. The college section, as you pointed out so eloquently, also makes no sense when applied to legette, but once again you conclude I’m just that dumb. Kind of funny isn’t it? You’re incapable of being wrong, so everyone is else. 

Is this good? Seems… not good?

https://x.com/devyeusuf/status/1754773478509777132?s=46

8 hours ago, Ricky Prickles said:

How is he not good?

Let’s see:

college:

he never once led his own team in yards in college 

had most of his production come vs one poo team

nfl:

this needs to be explained???

0 production 

can’t run routes

runs out of bounds instead of catching perfectly thrown balls

slightly above average speed but y’all act like he’s Tyreek hill

On 2/4/2024 at 9:20 AM, 45catfan said:

If we are going to force a WR at #33, we very well could be looking at WR7 or WR8.  Screw Fitterer and David Tepper. So disappointing to know where we could be this draft and the crumbs we actually have.  I know, you 'make lemonade out of lemons' and hopefully Dan Morgan can.  As a guy who usually enjoys the draft process, last draft and this one has absolutely sucked for me.

Same. I love the draft and half the time I go to watch players this year I just get pissed off we don’t have 1.01. Sucked all year and while most teams would then enjoy bountiful rewards in the offseason, we have nothing. Just more pain. Could’ve traded the 1.01 for an absolute haul. If only we just tanked 2022 and didn’t go on that late season run. We’d be so much better off it’s painful

On 1/30/2024 at 3:28 PM, ECHornet said:

He’s what we hoped Mingo would be. 

He’s what Mingo is, not good 

The one non WR I’d like at 33

If Bryce young sucks again next year we’ll have the 1.01 again. That’s the insurance 

Boo hoo they have to report to the guy who signs their checks. Here’s a quick exercise to check if someone has to report to someone: can they be fired? If so, who can fire them? Tepper owns the team, no poo people report to him. Welcome to the real world 

1 hour ago, mickeye76 said:

Is Higgins the answer?  Go big in FA and add a WR at 33. Then we have AT, Mingo, Higgins and a rookie. For sure better than what we trotted out this year.  We get lucky at 33 with a guy who catches on faster than Mingo and Tee as the numero uno.  I mean it's not outside the realm of possibility. And AT as the chain mover in the slot.  

Higgins won’t be allowed to leave in FA. Mike Evans is more realistic with HC ties and age. Good young wrs aren’t allowed to walk. Last example was kirk who was a wr3 on the cardinals than got a contract wildly over expectations 

Some recent “fixes” :

josh Allen 

tua

hurts

howd they get fixed? Teams traded for a true wr1. Then boom, magically the QBs went from bust to good. Crazy how that works 

1 hour ago, amcoolio said:

no it’s not. trade “grades” 5 years in the future show the actual players traded for eachother. Bears have a history of blowing picks. again the trade will be more remembered for passing on stroud. stop thinking so irrationally because of emotion and wake up 

The bears could forfeit the pick entirely, draft a long snapper first overall. Literally nothing to do with what we gave up

14 hours ago, amcoolio said:

the Bears are gonna blow all the picks (already blown two) so it’s not gonna look as bad. it will be remembered more for passing on Stroud 

What the bears do is completely irrelevant. Wake up

Honestly can’t even believe this poo is real. 1.01 in 2024 for 1.01 2023 in in of itself is a trade rape. Yet we threw in so much more. fug me

10 minutes ago, BrianS said:

That's not what I said, at all.  What I said, exactly, was "Here are the top 25 catchers this year.  Draft round has little to do with success, except that the first round is better at every position".

If you want to talk about flawed, your way certainly seems more flawed to me.  Looking at draft success over five years eliminates a massive chunk of successful NFL receivers from your view.  Good receivers have 10 year careers.  Good receivers can also be TE's.

It's universally true that the more you limit the pool of data, the less likely your statistics are representative.  The larger the pool, the more likely your statistics are representative.  I suppose that I could have looked at the all time most successful list and pulled data from that.  What would that look like?  I don't know, I'm not interested.

1. Posting the list of top receivers just proves late round picks CAN HIT and speaks nothing of probability, which was a core theme of my OP.

2. I agree, 5 years does exclude people. It was a somewhat arbitrary number chosen bc I) 5 is clean ii) over 30 wrs were drafted during this time, meaning the sample is recognized as statistically significant iii) I don’t have an unlimited amount of time to go back to 1960 Iv) the modern nfl is different from where it was 10 years ago and college is different too. The more recent rounds are also the most pertinent.

3. The conclusion (that it’s unlikely a day 2 wr pans out) would almost certainly be unchained even if I went back X years. Maybe the average changes to 28%, etc. it’s still unlikely whenever you aggregate multiple draft classes to derive conclusions. Of course, not every class is equal though - this would play into the “luck” element 

I believe she was supposed to replace JR but just never really did anything. 

3 minutes ago, BrianS said:

I'm not as convinced we need a first round pick to find a good ball catcher.  Here are the top 25 receivers (TE's included) by yardage this year, and the round they were drafted in:

Yes, there are 11 first rounders in there, but if you look at highly successful NFL players at ANY position, you'll see something like that.  First round picks generally succeed at a higher rate than other rounds.

What is incontrovertibly true is that we must draft better in the first four rounds.  At all positions.  Our first four rounds need to be wins, every year.

This is an extremely flawed way of looking at it. As stated in my post, 50 day 2 wrs were drafted from 2022-2018. Being generous, I logged 13 of those as hits. That’s about 1/4. It’s even less for day 3. Saying “look diggs was a round 5 wr!” Adds nothing to the conversation. It’s like the people who spam Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. Is it possible? Yes, obviously. Is it likely? No, not at all. The plan cannot be get lucky and find the next diggs 

I’m convinced no one read this post by the comments lol

I don’t think y’all realize good FA wrs do not become available 

The way I see it, there’s 2 major problems with this team rn: the OL and the wrs. In regards to the line, I actually think our problems mostly remedy themselves in 2024. Health has been this lines biggest issue. We have had our starting guards play exactly 0 games together this year. Icky is still young. If he figures it out, the rest of the OL should be average if not better than average in 2024.

With that out of the way, what I want to discuss here is what the fug we are supposed to do at WR. Thielen has been a pleasant surprise, but he’s old and not as good as his stats would indicate. Mingo had 0 good college seasons and looks incapable of running routes early on. Perhaps he pans out, but based on every historical data point, I think it’s fair to classify that as “unlikely.” No one else on the roster is worth discussing. So, how do we fix the issue of having no weapons? The 2 obvious answers are: FA and the draft. 

FA: the simple fact of the matter is great wrs do not hit FA. I do not see how the bengals or niners let Higgins/ Ayuik go for nothing in return. This has been the case for some years. Most recently, the highest impact wrs who departed in FA were Christian kirk (wr3 on his own team at the time) and Hopkins (old, apparently didn’t want to practice). Both these players were on the same team. Statistically speaking, it would be a massive outlier for any talented and under 30 wr to be available. As such, this cannot be the plan. 

The Draft: many first round wrs come into the league and have great impacts their rookie seasons. This is imo, the most probable way to fix the wr corps. Just one problem; we don’t have a first. The brings us to day 2 wrs: statistically speaking, much less likely that they pan out. Going back 6 years (too early to grade 2023 but looks bleak) from 2022 to 2018 there were 50 day 2 wrs drafted. Of those 50, 13 were hits according to me (please tell me how stupid I am in comments bc it’s really 12 or 14). That’s a ~1/4 chance of hitting on a day 2 wr. As such, this is also not a probable solution. 

Trading: this is how the good teams get wrs. Josh Allen: total bust until they traded for diggs. Tua: bust until hill (and waddle) showed up. Hurts: classic rushinh qb who can’t throw until AJb (and smith) get there. What do all of these have in common? That’s right! Acquired with First round picks! What do we not have? A first! 

Conclusion: every plausible avenue to acquire a wr1 is not available to us. The plan seems to be to get lucky. So, Carolina fans, are you feeling lucky? 

Can’t help but feel like the owners instance to sabotage his own players with artificial grass has directly and negatively impacted horns career

On 10/30/2023 at 1:12 PM, top dawg said:

I've been saying he is our best back since last season. He may not be able to take the team on his back, but, but I view him as the second generation Nick Goings. He's a sneaky explosive north-south runner that can be very productive if he gets to the second level, and tear your ass up if he gets into the open field. 

Glad to see he's still working on his hands because he's fairly one dimensional right now, but can still move the chains occasionally with key catches.

If you were saying that last season you’re delusional. Foreman was vastly superior to Hubbard. In fact, Hubbard has been absolute dog poo most of his career. This is the first season he’s actually shown something so I have no idea what you’re trying to do with this oh he should’ve been the starter talk

On 10/26/2023 at 1:15 AM, Dave Gettleman's Shorts said:

CMC wasn't "available" but were "listening" before he got traded a year ago

Well they gave him away for free so clearly that wasn’t true. Got 0 value from that trade. Insane