grimesgoat

2 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

lol

The only stupid thing this franchise has done with pick up the 5th year option?  Holy poo dude you cannot be serious

Dead serious.  But i'm talking about since they changed the management, bringing in Fitterer/Morgan and the cap guru.  I should have made that clear.  Not talking about hiring Rhule or anything Hurney did.  We all can agree the Rhule hire is not working out and Hurney did not draft well and overcompensated certain positions.  I would have moved on from Rhule this year, but I can understand giving him one more year to implement his program.

I think the guys they drafted last year are all solid.  We could end up with 5-6 starters including a shut-down corner and a long term solution at LT in one draft.

They didn't sign any free agents for ridiculous money.  They got something for TB even though he was damaged goods.  They got EJ Henderson, a top 10 talent, for a 3rd.  The Anderson extension looks bad when Sam was QB, but will look much different with a legit OC and Watson throwing the ball.

Jury's still out on most of this.  But again, the only truly damaging miscalculation was the Darnold option.  Move that contract with this deal and we may be ok.

1 minute ago, BlitzMonster said:

Houston is setting the terms of the deal.  Not us.  

With so many teams trying to get Watson, they can ask for whatever they want and get it.  

Negotiations are always a two-way street.  Houston runs the risk of getting nothing but a 35m cap hit for a guy they will not play.  Houston wants those picks + burns just as bad as Tepper wants Watson.  Tepper is a businessman.  He knows a fair deal when he sees it.  And he will walk away before he is trade-raped.  

Everyone just assumes the Panthers are just a bunch of dummies, but I don't think that is the case.  I believe they are looking 2-3 moves out and will make sure we have something left over to use to build. 

The only really stupid thing they have done is pick up Darnold's 5th year option.  Trading for Darnold was a calculated risk and not that costly.  Extending him was a boo boo.  

I hate the idea of Watson being the face of the franchise for obvious reasons.

But if we gotta do this, Darnold better be going out with those 3 firsts. If Burns has to go, so be it - but we need to get something back - like a 2nd or 3rd.

If we dump Darnold's 18m and re-cast Watsons 35m base salary to some sort of bonus, we may be looking at 30m in cap in addition to the 30m or so we already have.  

We can then eat CMC's hit in a trade to buffalo for some additional draft capital.

If we play our cards right, we could walk away with Watson, a second, a third, and 40m in cap.  We can build something with that.

my prediction. 

3 firsts, 2 seconds, DJ and Darnold for Watson and a 3rd. 
 

they have to dump darnold to free salary to cover the cost of trading  CMC to buffalo for 2 2nds. 

they will then free salary by converting Watson salary to bonus, freeing 20m

sign a solid fa guard. Move Christensen to LT. Draft a lb in the 2nd. A DE in the 3rd. A guard in the 4th. WR in 5th. 
 

I’d rather fix the line this year, then take my chances with the QBs coming out next year. Grow organically. 

I think if we really did offer 3 1sts, 2 2nds and a starter on the defense, Houston would have already grabbed it.  They can't possibly think they can get more.

My guess is the real offer is the 6th, next year's first and second, and Darnold.

The panthers are not as stupid as many folks believe.  But they will roll the dice on occasion.

Everyone points to Darnold as a dumb move.  Trading for him was certainly a risk, but a calculated risk.  He's had his moments in the league.  Panthers thought they could get something out of him and keep the 8th pick. 

The move may have looked a lot better had Horn stayed healthy.  Who knows, maybe the Panthers win the Eagles or Minn game with better corner play.  If Horn plays the whole year, the season may have turned out very differently.  We would still have this year's third rounder as well.  

Horn getting hurt really made the trade look much dumber.

This is my guy. Trade back and get this guy. 

7 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Funny that the coaches, who should technically be older and wiser, didn't see it your way.

Your argument really only works for players that don't have better opportunities somewhere else. And if they're at least half decent, chances are they will.

Will there be players that will sign here just for the money? Probably. Will they be all that good? Maybe, maybe not.

If they're at least decent, we might have to overpay and use up more cap room to keep them from going somewhere else.

That's not good team building.

No gaslighting.  No one said anything about coaches.  We're talking about free agent players.

I think the key ingredients most of these 20-somethings are thinking about are money, opportunity to play, girls, friends/family/teammate relationships, fun things to do in town.

A coach being around more than a year is not on the radar.  And if the kid is good, he may think he can make a difference in how that coach's future plays out anyway.

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

If you think this team is an attractive free agent destination, I have a feeling in a week or so you might be disappointed.

It's been repeated numerous times that people all around the league look at us and see a lame duck in the head coaching spot.

Nobody's going to have positive feelings about that.

You're in your mid twenties.  You are offered millions of dollars to play a game you love in a fun city with thousands of beautiful southern women running around. 

You are about 3 hours from the beach. Taxes are reasonable.  The weather is nice 10 months out of the year.  The facilities are nice.

His teammates are important.  Does he already know guys on the team?  Anyone he played with in HS or college?  

Maybe he's from NC.  Maybe he played for a NC or SC school.  Maybe he has family here.

If he's got some pride - maybe he sees this as a challenge.  He wants to make a difference.

The coach may not be around past next year, but the next guy could be better. He's had multiple coaches in HS, college, NFL.  What's one more? The possibility the coach is a lame duck is probably 10th on his consideration list. 

That argument is a complete joke.  The only people that will not consider us are the ring-chasers.  Hopefully we're not interested in those guys anyway.

26 minutes ago, Actionman0z said:

Cause people saying people don’t want to play for the panthers is a narrative built in your head. Show me a quote from one player that says, under no circumstances do I want to play for Carolina. no trade clause players are exempt, because they have a list. 

there's not enough pie in the world for this response.

11 minutes ago, Verge said:

There are other competitors. Anything could happen. I hesitate to say "done deal".

I will not enter the fray about the moral aspects of trading for Watson until we know more on Friday.  This is for those that say it is too costly. I don't know if it is a reasonable offer - but here goes.

Darnold + DJ + 3 1sts + 2nds for Watson.  Houston gets a lot of draft capital for building and can absorb DJ/Darnold with the savings from trading Watson.

Moving Darnold and DJ in a trade frees 29m.  Watson will cost 35m, but we can convert that salary to bonus and drop the cap hit to 10m or so in 2022.

Next we flip CMC to Buffalo (or similar) for a 2nd and a 2023 second.  This will cost 18m dead.

We come out with Watson, 50m in cap, and picks 2,4,5,5,6,7 in 2022.  In 2023 we'll have a 2 (from buff), 3,4,5,6,7 plus comp picks for Reddick, Gilmore, etc.  (maybe an extra 4 and 5).  In 2024, we won't have a first or second, but could be decent by then with good investments.

Putting aside the moral aspect, will we have enough cap and capital to build around Watson?  

(and for those who's only contribution will be "panthers will probably just draft poorly and overpay the wrong people", consider not saying these things this time.  we know who you are and we know how you feel) 

my preference.

trade back with philly: 6 for 16, 51, 83.

Greene (G) or Penning (T) at 16.  Strong at 51.  Tyler Smith  (T) at 83.

10 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

I remember when I got ripped apart on here suggesting that we would get at least a first for CMC if we were to trade him. We have all of the leverage here.

I was ripped too.  Some folks told me we'll have to give up a pick just to get someone to take him.

Only way they trade DJ is if they can't get a new deal done.  He may be looking for something like 5 years 100m and we offer 3 yrs 40m.

I'd rather trade him for a second and change, than have him walk next year for a comp 3rd not available intil 2024.

51 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

 

Totally expected.  converted base salary to bonus, which spreads the hit out.  

Shaq is probably next, then an extension for DJ.  They may get another 10m from these.

Hopefully this is for a solid FA G and not for a vet QB.  If Christensen is ready to start at LT, we pick up a good G in FA, then trade back in the first and draft another G, our line should be vastly improved with some decent coaching.

Use the trade-back for a developmental QB in the second and we're truly building for the future.

8 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Again, 3 years at $11.5M is misleading. He will only play 2 years so we would be paying him $5.75M per year. Paying <> cap hit. We will physically hand him $11.5M during the 2 years he is present.

Pushing some of the payments already made into 2024 as dead cap means we have 3 years of cap hits for 2 years of play.

Amazing that dead cap, which has been vilified in here is now a way to act like Thomas is only getting paid $4M a year. Maybe we can just put a full size cut out of him on the sidelines in 2024 and people will still think he’s here. Not like anyone would notice his 1 catch per game contributions.

No one can possibly know exactly what the production will be.  They don't pay someone for past production - especially if it does not line up with what they think the future production will be.  They think he can be a weapon and are paying for that belief. He showed potential when given the opportunity.  

But football is a tough life played by large people.  He could put up 50-500 or he could get hurt in training camp and miss 3 years.  That's why you don't fully guarantee all the money - so you can cut bait if things do not work out as you thought.  In this case, if they are wrong - they can save 5m of the 16.5 and move on.

In hindsight, salary often is out of balance with production.  If you have a way of traveling to the future and find out if their belief is wrong, let us know.  Otherwise you can wait it out like the rest of us.

13 minutes ago, stbugs said:

How is it a myth? That’s the average per year. You listed $7M paid year one and $4M year 2. That’s $5.5M per year with another $5.5M paid out in 2024. Again, $5.5M per year. No myth.

The signing bonus just makes the cap hit year 1 lower but every single dollar we pay will hit the cap at some point.

Also, we signed Arnold for $3M per year and he had far more production, getting a decent TE for $3M a year isn’t hard. Getting a Kelce, sure, but 18 reception TEs that can block aren’t commanding $5.5M per year.

In all likelihood, we will pay 11.5m spread over 3 years.  That will not kill us.  Someone actually complained they'd rather have Reddick, as if signing Thomas takes Reddick off the table.

Look I get the production issue.  Arnold wasn't brought here to be a blocker.  We paid 3m hoping for 40-400.  They think Thomas can give them something better if used (i.e. throw him the ball more than 1-2 times a game), plus he can block.

In 2018, when Olsen was hurt, Thomas put up 25-240 in the last 5 games.  Olsen was healthy in 2019 so he didn't get the looks, then in 2020-21 we never threw to the TEs.  If McAdoo's offense uses the TEs as pass catchers, I fully expect 45 catches and 400-500 yards.  That money will look all right if that happens.  If he doesn't hit those targets, then we'll know we overpaid.

Let's see it play out.

8 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Do you have a clue on how contracts work? $8M guaranteed means that if we cut him right now he still gets $8M. It’s not spread over 3 years. The deal averages $5.5M. If he plays all 3 years he gets $16.5M, not $9-12M.

Here’s the real deal:

In 2022, he gets $6.4M but he’s still fully guaranteed $8M so if we cut him after 2020, he will get his $8M.

I haven’t seen the full break down, but the $10.1M is spread over the 2 years so about $5M a year in 2023 and 2024. 

From what I read, I think it breaks down like this...

Year 1: 6m bonus (2m per year) + 1m salary (guar) for a cap hit = 3m.

Year 2: 0m bonus (2m per year) + 4m salary (1m guar) for a cap hit = 6m,  Savings if cut = 1m (5m dead)

Year 3: 0m bonus (2m per year) + 5m salary (0m guar) for a cap hit = 7m, Savings if cut = 5m (2 dead)

The pearl-clutching about 5.5m per year is a myth.  He is probably worth 3m in 2022.  No one would come here for less, we don't have the draft capital to replace him, and we don't want to net out a comp pick if possible.

He may be worth the 6m in 2023 if Mcadoo is right. 

He is likely to be cut in year 3 for the 5m in cap savings. 

Philly has a boatload of  picks this year, so it may make sense for them to consolidate somewhat.  A more realistic trade with Philly might be 6 for 15, 51, 83, 123.  This is a slight premium for us according to the trade chart.  They keep 3 first rounders and still have 4 day 3 picks.

It allows us to grab an instant starting guard in the first and some flexibility with a 2nd, 3rd, and an extra 4th.  If 51 is too late for one of our targets, we may be able to slide up a little in the second by dangling one of our 4ths.  Cine, Strong or Petit-Frere could all be in play around 51 and would probably all start for us.

34 minutes ago, wesley17 said:

Yes I would do it, but why would Philly?

If Thiboudeaux, Stingley, Gardner, or Hamilton are still there at 6 - they may want to move up.  They can't get any of those guys at 15.

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

Compiled by various members of The Athletic staff, a list of players that teams might be looking to move on from via either cut or trade for cap reasons (Link)

For the Panthers...

- CB AJ Bouye

- WR Robby Anderson

- DE Morgan Fox

- T Cam Erving

- OL Dennis Daley

We really got a good deal on Bouye.  If we re-sign Gilmore or Jackson, I bet they try to move him.  Could be worth a 5th and saves us 3.5m.

No one will touch Anderson. He'll never be worth the money we paid, but cure the dropsies and he's a decent weapon.  What a bad extension that was.

Cutting Fox saves 3m.  Good luck finding someone comparable for that amount.  We are already losing Reddick and Jones so can't see him going anywhere.

Erving is a decent swing T.  Saves 2m to cut (4.5m dead).  It will be tough to find a vet swing T for 2m.  Probably ride with him another year.  Better OL coach should help here.

Daley - No way we pay 2.5m to an average talent like this.  He can be replaced with one of our 6ths at significantly less cost.  Best of luck to Mr. Daley.

Surprised Jackson is not on that list.

Bridgewater to TB?

43 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

I agree that our safest bet is probably going LT this year, but people need to be carefull with this idea of next year being a better option for QBs just because on paper it's a better class.

What if we are a bit more competitive like you stated and end up winning 8 games.  If we are drafting 13th it might not matter if the overall QB class is stronger next year.  At 6 this year we might get QB1, at 12-13 next year you might end up with QB 4 or 5.

At the end of the day there is risk either way, like you, barring a trade down, I'm leaning towards taking the best LT at 6, but i can see arguments on both sides.

 

I think CMC is the difference.  When he played, we were 4-3.  When he was out, we were 1-9.

With our defense and a healthy CMC, we can field a competitive team regardless of our QB shortcomings.

If CMC is hurt and misses half the season, we'll win 4-5 games and be picking in the top 5. Darnold will be gone and CMC will be cut.  We can get a good QB there and start out fresh with a new coach.

If he is healthy, our ceiling is probably 8 wins, which will put us picking around 10-14.  We can still get a good young QB in that range but none of the top 3. 

If we have to pick a QB this year, I hope we move back, pick up a second, and select Strong.  Give him a chance to sit and watch for a while and improve the OL with our first.  I think he will be successful when the new coaching regime arrives next year.

5 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

 

My only point was they don't have to trade him because they can't get under the cap any other way.  They could get under the cap without even losing those key players.  

I agree that he should go for less than what people think.  I just hope we are patient and don't give the Vikings an easy out.

I would be shocked if he signed an extension.  With the $35m guaranteed there is no reason for him to sign any type of deal unless it's a premium and I can't see them wanting to give out a 3yr/100m type of deal.

I don't see them taking Darnold and just swapping picks though.  In a vacuum that might sound good but you have to remember there are other teams out there that might offer something.  If you are the Vikings would you take Darnold and 1st round pick swap (6 spots) or a 2nd round pick from someone else?  I might like that 2nd rounder more because I save $18m I don't have to pay Darnold and I still have my 1st rounder that I can draft my QB.

So pick 6 + Darnold or pick 12 + $18m + 2nd rounder?  

The question becomes is there another team out there what would offer at least a 2nd?

 

 

Probably.  Denver, Washington, Pittsburg, and Houston are all teams probably considering a QB upgrade with more available cap than us.  Last thing I'd do is get in a bidding war.

I still believe our best option is to try to trade back, grab an OL and LB in rounds 1 and 2, and roll with Darnold for another year.  If everyone stays healthy (looking at you CMC), we may have a competitive season.  Then we draft our favorite QB next year when the class looks to be a little better.