grimesgoat

Drew Sanders has been my guy for a while at 39.  He's getting a lot of buzz lately.  May be a day 1 guy.

man woman camera person tv

Well done.  

I took a similar approach and looked at who is likely locked in on the 53 after free agency, then figuring out where there may be openings.  We have 6 picks in the top 5 rounds so all should be expected to make the team.

On offense, there are probably 20 guys that, barring injury, will likely be on the team.  Not going to list them, but our 21-25 spots are QB, WR, TE (unless you like Ricci), RB (unless you like Blackshear), and G.  I think we go QB in the first, WR in the 4th, RB in the 4th, and G in the 5th.

On defense, there are 23 guys that seem locked in.  The 24th and 25th guys that might be on the bubble are Roy and STO.  I think CB is a huge need and if we can get a startable guy in the 3rd, that will be the play.  We also need a pass rusher, so it would not surprise me to see one of the guys MHS mentioned go to us in the second - but my hope is Drew Sanders at 39.

If we want to take advantage of this strong TE class, I could see us try to move Chinn.  I don't really want to, as I love Chinn, but he's due to get paid and I'm struggling to see where he fits.  The timing might be right.  Likewise, I don't really see where YGM fits, although unlike MHS, I think he is a good player when healthy.

Corral is also be a possible trade option if we are looking to upgrade and develop another DT.  We may be able to turn him into a 5th and replace Roy.

I'm really looking forward to another wheeling dealing Fitterer draft. 

22 minutes ago, ncfan said:

And that’s the thing.

Its about as known now that Houston is as interested in Stroud at 2 as we are Levis at 1.  They have their eyes on Bryce if it’s a QB.  If they call and seem willing again.  That means that there’s a strong chance We take Stroud regardless at 1.   Also if we wanted Bryce, it would take a LOT to get us to move off the top QB on our board after what we gave up to get there.  And what they’d have to offer, the reality is, they won’t give that much to move 1 spot to 1.

We're going in circles here, so this will be my last.

I do not know what the price will be to move back a spot.  That will depend on how in love the Panthers are in one guy vs. the other and how much Houston wants a particular guy.

Houston may be perfectly fine taking Stroud after seeing us take Young.

But if Houston feels strongly about one or the other, then they will call us to see what the price is.  If we are willing to move back, it does not mean we are settling for the second best guy, or that we will not get our first choice, whoever that is.  It simply means we are ok with either guy plus the compensation we get from Houston.  Its not emotional.  Its just a transaction. And who knows, we may still end up with our favorite guy plus some extra compensation.

And the fact we traded so much to get to 1 is irrelevant here.  That was simply the price to get one of the top two guys.  Trading to 2 was out of the question.  We knew we wanted one of Young or Stroud so trading to 1 was the only option we had.  Doesn't mean we liked one more than other, it was simply our only option to enter the game.  

You are one of my favorite posters on this site, but I can't keep posting the same poo over and over.  If we end up moving back, maybe we can continue this conversation.  

Cheers.

6 minutes ago, ncfan said:

And it’s common sense.

you don’t move all that you did and skip on the top QB on your board unless they offer some crazy offer including pick 12 this year.

at the same time.

you’d have to be silly if you think they’ll offer that to move up from 2 to 1

Please understand, I am no advocating here.  And I don't know who we are favoring, although it seems we are somewhat split internally at this time.

Houston may not feel the same.  They may see Young as the clear #1 for their vision and don't want anything to do with Stroud.  If they feel this way - I could see them making an offer in a week or two.  In fact, I'd be surprised if they didn't.  They could try to lowball us with a 3rd or something, who knows.  But if they do not make any offer, then they are either sure we're taking Stroud or don't care either way (or they are incompetent).

But if Houston calls and offers me enough to get me comfortable with either guy, I could see us pulling the trigger and moving back a spot.

1 minute ago, ncfan said:

Yes it does.

because we aren’t trading down and still getting Bryce (the guy they want).  So if we are willing to move, they automatically know that we want Stroud and Bryce will be available at 2.

I'm sorry, but I'm afraid you are still missing my point.

Everyone has their price.

That fact we are willing to trade back does not mean we like Stroud the best.  It just means we are ok with Stroud along with whatever compensation Houston is willing to give up.  

Even if we like Young better than Stroud, we may decide we like Stroud + #12 even better.

6 minutes ago, ncfan said:

It pretty known who Houston wants.

Doesn't matter as long as Houston doesn't know who we want.  If they are worried we are leaning Bryce, then they will need to pay a price to not have to worry about that anymore.

Its not nearly as complicated as people seem to think.

5 minutes ago, ncfan said:

If they call

and we’re willing to move

they know exactly who like most.

And it wouldn’t be Bryce who they want.

 

 

 

which means.  We would be taking Stroud and Bryce would be available to them at 2

I'll try this once more.

They do not know who we like most.  We do not know who they like most.  That is irrelevant.  No one has to tell the other anything.

The question is - will the compensation from Houston be enough for the Panthers to say - fug it, we'll take the one they don't.

There is no trickery here.

If we were truly 50/50, we may be willing to take Houston's 2nd.

If we were leaning heavily one way or the other, we may insist on Houston's other first or a first next year.

Point is, there may be a price where we would be ok with either guy.

1 minute ago, ncfan said:

If Houston calls, and we seem even willing to move for the right price.

Then we don’t have conviction on the guy they want.  And Houston will know right away that their guy will be there at 2.

 

False. 

Both teams might like the same guy best.

They don't know who we like and we don't know who they like.  All we know is that at the right price we can be happy with either.

Houston may want to roll the dice and hope we don't pick their guy.  But if they want peace of mind, they will need to pay for it.

Just now, run-run-pass-punt said:

If I'm Houston, I would think it would be so easy to find out if it's just smoke. Inquire about a move up and if we indicate a willingness to consider it, it means that we *aren't* set on our guy as BY, which mean he will most likely be there at #2.

So the mere openness to negotiate, if the BY talk is smoke, gives away the charade, rendering any talks pointless - from the Texans' perspective.

Anyone can change their mind if the price is right.  Panthers should take the call and simply ask Houston to make an offer.  If the offer makes the Panthers comfortable taking QB 1b, than accept the offer.

Houston may just want peace of mind and are willing to pay for it.  No mind games are necessary.

6 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Right now the reports are saying there are people in Carolina's camp that like both.  Say we are 55% Young and 45% Stroud.  Pick 33 may be enough to say yeah Stroud plus pick 33 > Young.  Maybe Houston thinks pick 33 is worth it to make sure they get the QB they want if they have a lot higher grade on Young than Stroud.  

If its 55/45, then I'm probably sticking with my #1.  But if its 51/49 then I'm saying "make me an offer".  Texans may not want to guess who we like best or risk we pick their guy.  If the cost is 33, then they may think the peace of mind is worth it.

A nice wr may be sitting there at 33 that can grow with our new QB, and could help our new "2nd best" QB be even more successful.

5 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I got it but it still doesnt make sense.  We would trade to 1 only to go to 2 for one pick and the second best qb?   Nah it doesnt make sense.  What are folks thinking the texans would actually give us for 1?

Who says we would get the second best qb at 2?  No two nfl team boards are alike.  The fact that 50% like Young and 50% like Stroud is a solid clue.  The panthers may have these guys ranked the same.  Why not get a little extra compensation if available?

On 3/31/2023 at 11:12 PM, Shocker said:

Dude - for some reason I can't stop laughing at this...

8 minutes ago, trucpfan said:

Henderson has no price tag my man another year like last year he’ll be unemployed.

My point - Panthers have until May 1 to decide if they wish to pick up his 5th year option of 11m.  Based on his work so far, I doubt they do so.  That plus Jackson's 14m cap hit (vs. 10m in savings from a cut) means we may really need a cb sooner rather than later.  They are not cheap on the open market.

2 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Agreed, and here is why:

1. Jackson and Horn seem to be fragile--how often have both been on the field at the same time? 

2. Fitterer (I think) said that Horn would play the nickel when Chinn was not playing the big nickel.   Taking Horn from outside is a huge mistake, imo.  Henderson on the outside is not the answer.  He needs to be a reserve or play only in 4 CB sets--prevent, in other words.

3.  Jackson is likely to be gone in 2024.  We need to groom CBs now to cover that loss.

I think the price tag for Jackson and Henderson will be too high in 2024.  CB is a significant need.  I would grab one no later than our first 4th.

14 minutes ago, t96 said:

If they are dead even in our evaluations and we truly can't decide then maybe. But if it's a 1a/1b you 100% just stay at 1, don't fug around, and take the guy you like a bit better. 

I suspect they like both Young and Stroud.  Question is, what do they like better...Young by himself or Stroud plus the #12 pick.  That #12  pick could replace the #1 WR we just lost.

Or maybe Houston gives their 2024 #1 as was rumored they offered Chicago.  Even with Young, they are probably picking in the top 5 again.  We could possibly snag Marvin Harrison next year with that high pick.

Lots to think about.

3 hours ago, Castavar said:

It would be the absolute most Panther thing to move up all the way to #1, lose your #1 WR because of it, only to draft the #3 ranked QB lmao

#3 ranked QB by who?  The talking heads?  

If they like 2 guys, I could see them moving back a spot for #34 from Houston.  Chances are we get our favorite anyway (if we have a favorite) and pick up a good spot for a WR.

12 minutes ago, Basbear said:

We will not know until the draft happen, but I think youre still off. the top 51 is right next to draft one. 

most times those around 47-55 all have the same UDFA level pay. most times its doesnt effect the top 51 much. But add the #1 guaranteed draft pick will. Finessererer could trade around a few times too, i dont know if they keep the 39th or others. late 5th -7th are normally at the 51 cut off. 

Cap only counts the top 51.  Right now we are sitting on 51 guys.  If we add 6 guys salary, we'll lose 6 guys salary.  The math is pretty simple.

It's always had an effect around 5-7m.  Its a little higher this year with the first pick.

Regardless, no need to spend up to the limit.  Its nice to have some reserves for injuries and carry-over.  We'll need it next year for burns, luvu, chinn, etc.

2 minutes ago, Basbear said:

panthers got the 1st overall, its the highest number and 39th isnt that cheap either.... i think sportac has the real numbers brb--------

yep.  and those six players will replace 6 players currently counting in the active 51.  The guys they replace are all probably bottom of the roster guys making about 900k.  900k x 6 = 5.4m.  12.6m - 5.4m = 7.2m

34 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

Need 12m for rookies, so gives the team about 16m left over after that counting Shaq deal

I think you need to net it against guys that they will replace.  probably closer to 7m for rookies.

7 minutes ago, Brooklyn 3.0 said:

Because we've lost a star WR and next year's first. We have to recoup that PLUS get something great in the deal to trade the pick. You don't trade to the top spot, only to get less in return to trade down.

We wouldn't be trading back to 9.  We'd essentially be going from 9 to 2.  It would cost 9, 61, 24st, 25 2nd, and DJ.  In return we get 2 and 34.  Not too bad.

Let's say the 34th is equivalent to 61 and the 25 2nd.  That means the #2 pick ended up costing us DJ and next year's first.  Worth it.

8 minutes ago, Brooklyn 3.0 said:

But it order for what you said to happen ... we have to get a WR as good as Moore and a 1st rd pick before we even begin to celebrate over the haul we'd get trading down. I said it in another thread, trading down makes zero sense. We'd need to get BACK a first AND get an elite WR as part of the deal ... which as some of you are thinking, would include "additional picks".

No team is going to give us a WR, and more than one first, just to get in the top slot. One more time: In order for this dream scenario to work, we'd need to swap firsts with someone (but still be able to get a QB), get a first in 2024 (to cover the one we lost), a first in 2025 (to "gain" something), possibly more picks ... oh, and a stud WR ... JUST to make everything worth it.

We're picking first.

Trading back makes perfect sense if you believe there are multiple QBs that can do the job.  Why wouldn't you trade back one spot for an early 2nd or maybe even the 12th.

This board is torn between Young and Stroud and you have a healthy number of folks that like Richardson best.  Hell, there may even be a Levis guy on here.  

When all is said and done, one of these 4 will be the best QB and well over half of this board will have gotten it wrong.

Trade back one slot with Houston and pick up 34.  Chances are you still get your favorite QB plus a prime spot to grab a WR or TE.

I think the panthers mentioned they like AR and Stroud because they are signaling they are open for business.  If Houston wants a certain guy, the panthers are saying make us an offer because we like two different guys.  If you take one of our guys, we're ok taking the other.

Not saying these are the only two guys we will consider - just that we like more than one of these guys so we would be open to trading back.

Just now, jayboogieman said:

Not attacking you and just want to point this out. If they traded for #1 just to move back, they're the dumbest people to ever run a sports franchise. Draft Day was a movie. Things like that don't happen in real life.

I believe we moved up to have control - not necessarily for a particular guy.  I don't think we have figured that out yet, and still have lots of time to do so.  If Richardson ends up being our favorite after due diligence, then I hope we can trade back a little.