grimesgoat

If we really think both guys are good enough, then why not. Let Houston have their favorite. I think I’d rather have Young and Flowers or Johnston vs. just Stroud.  And it is 50/50 I’d end up with Stroud and one of the wrs.  We need more than a qb. We need wr, te, and a bunch of pieces on defense. Another early second would really help. 

It would be hard to imagine anything less useful then a grade on a 1-year-old draft.

On 1/21/2023 at 12:47 PM, Verge said:

I am proud to say I am the only analyst to not hand the Panthers a quarterback at 9. 

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/lists/2023-nfl-mock-draft-playoffs-bryce-young-cj-stroud-will-levis-anthony-richardson/?taid=63cc1b75f6f20a00018587fe&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter

Verge-

When I first saw Porter at 9 I sort of raged.  But picking up Henderson's option in 2024 will cost 11m.  And if Jackson is slowed by the achilles, we could save 10m by cutting him in 2024.  Porter could be really important if those guys are no longer with us after 2023 year.

Does a combo of Porter/Horn make sense in a 3-4?

I'd offer Carr  4 yrs at 130 m.  40m signing bonus up front with 65 guaranteed.  In year 3, we can save 10m with a dead cap hit of 20m.  Year 4 we can save 25m with a dead cap of 10m.

This gives us a chance to develop Corral and Eason and continue to look for a younger option.  We keep all draft capital to build around Carr.  With a good defense, the core of which we already have, plus competent QB play, we can compete for championships over the next 4 years.

Regardless of who they get at QB, I'll be on board. The competency level of this staff puts us in uncharted waters for this franchise.

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Not sure why all the panicking over the Raiders' lack of wins this year with the #28 overall defense.

Exactly.  They have been bottom 5 in scoring defense for at least 6 years.  You need some sort of balance. 

The idea Carr is a retread is so lazy.  Carr is solid and should continue to play at a high level for at least 3-4 more years.

Carr went 6-9 in his starts last year.  8 of the 9 losses were 1 score games.  His defense was probably the worst in the league.  Carr could be a really sneaky smart move, especially if he doesn't have to win every game single-handedly. 

Putting Carr on this team immediately makes us the favorite for the division and hosting playoff games for then next several years.  Use #9 on a WR, then grab a TE in the second.  Spend the rest on defense and let our new superstar coaches go to work.  

52 minutes ago, SetfreexX said:

We only have 7 picks - 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5

The extra 5th from SF is in 2024. 

The seven picks we have for 2023 as of today is the same number of total picks we'd normally have. The good thing is we can double up in rounds 2 & 3 this year if we're able to sit tight and get a guy like AR15 at no. 9. 

Actually, I was thinking we had 1 2 2 3 4 4 5.  Should have said we have an unusual number of fairly high picks - i.e. higher draft value/points.

AR at 9 sounds good to me.  As long as we grab help on the DL as well as a TE and Free Safety fairly high.

There are 3 teams that pick right after us that are in need of OT.  We might be able to slide back a few, pick up an extra 3rd, and still get our guy.

Besides there is no way Fitterer doesn't trade back at some point to get some extra picks in the 6th/7th.  Someone might fall and we should obtain some ammo somewhere along the line.

I think we need some perspective.  It's not like 30 other teams have kyle shanahan clones and we are the only team with a shitty coaching tree.  We've had our moments.

We are average.  We've always been average.  Our winning percentage since 2000 is 17th in the league.

But what is interesting to me is that we are 12th in the league in winning percentage against the spread (193 - 183 - 9).  Just a bunch of overachievers.

We've hit a rough patch. We have a new coach, a stud DC, and a boatload of draft picks.  We're on our way.  Let's enjoy.

11 minutes ago, BrianS said:

That doesn't add up.  Luvu averaged a bit more than 7.5 tackles per game played.  Shaq averaged 8 tackles per game played.  Please explain how Shaq is worth nearly three times what Luvu makes.

18 million for a non-rush LB is TOO MUCH MONEY unless you're talking about a guy like a Kuechly who makes everyone else better.  Shaq is no Luke.

If you want to keep Shaq here in the 7-8 million range over 2 additional years, ok.  Otherwise, thank you for your service, best of fortune in your future endeavors.

You've also got to consider that we will now need MORE LB's as we switch to a 3-4.  In that defense, it's the OLB's who make the bread.  Shaq is not a 3-4 OLB.

Don't tell anyone this, especially Luvu, but he is severely underpaid.  If your argument is we can significantly underpay someone else to play for us, then I say good luck with that.

We are in good shape with LBs in a 3-4.  Burns, Luvu, Shaq, Barno, Smith, Haynes, Chinn, and maybe Mosby.  I am really high on Barno and Haynes in this configuration and hope they can get significant snaps.

If Shaq's production flags in this new scheme, then we cut him next year and save 8m.  I was wrong in my original post - the cap hits in 2024 and 2025 are 16m each, not 18m, which probably doesn't make a difference for you.

I think what we need are more DL and a FS.  I'd spend a 2nd on DL and our 3rd on a FS and hope they will be ready for heavy rotation by the time the season starts.

I think LBs are good with Burns, Barno, Haynes, Luvu, Shaq, Chinn, and Smith.

Add Horn, Henderson, Jackson, STO, Taylor, and Woods into the mix and secondary looks ok.

I like Brown and McCall but YGM is too small for the line and may be the odd man out.  

I like Mazie or Tuipolutu in the late second and a free safety in the third.

I'd save our 1st and early second for the offense, Grab 2 of QB, WR, and TE.

Dude had 135 tackles and is the leader of our defense.

Extend him 3 years, 36m.  2023 12m bonus, 2024 12m salary, 2025 12m salary.

Saves 8 m in cap in 2023.

Cap hit in 2024 is 18m or if cut 8m dead.

Cap hit in 2025 is 18m or if cut 4m dead.

I'd be ok with Carr at a reasonable price - maybe 30m bonus, 60 total.  Cap hit of 10m in 2023 and 25m in 2024 and 2025 with an out in 2025 of 10 dead.

We need to develop Corral.  I'm not on board with just trashing a guy we really liked just because we snagged him in the third round instead of the top 5.

Use the 9th to get a stud WR and one of the 2nds on a TE and I guarantee we win 11 and host a playoff game.

shaq is due to make around 14m this year (cash).  Extend him 2 years and 35m with 15m bonus.  Annual salary in 2024 and 2025 are 10m each with 2025 unguaranteed.

He makes 15m cash in 23 (the 15m is spread over 3 years for cap purposes).

The 2023 cap hit drops to 16 (saving 8m).  2024 and 2025 cap hits are 15m each (10m salary, 5m prorated bonus).  He can be cut in 2025 with a savings of 10m and dead cap hit of 5m.

I think his production and leadership is definitely worth 15m per year.

1 hour ago, CRA said:

Reality is still that Fitt got abused by Urban Meyer in that trade.   

Jags got a decent role player and a 3rd round pick.   We got trash.    And we just drafted Horn and were renting Gilmore as if we were trying to win a Super Bowl.  

It’s still an example of Fitt poorly managing the roster and our assets 

*only thing worse than Matt Rhule making.someone look bad is having Urban take you 

Just to be fair, we also got a fifth, that Fitt turned into Brandon Smith and Amare Barno.  Jury's still out on those two, but I think they are keepers and good depth.  Both could be solid starters by their third year if we can develop them.

14 hours ago, Basbear said:

Plus the fact that defense got worse after he fired Phil Snow and replaced with best bud.....

hey - what stats are you using to show the defense got worse?

Points per game went from 24.4 to 21.0.

Yds per snap went from 4.88 to 3.61.

Turnovers per game did not change.

Curious as to what stats you are using...

14 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Here's what we do know about Wilks head coaching results. 

Year 1, as a first time head coach he managed to get his team to win 3 games out of 16.  Did he have full support or was he just too inexperienced? Either way the results are not good, but it's where we start. Too many unknown factors to use otherwise. 

Year 2, his second chance at being a head coach he managed to get a team (you know the situation so I'm not rehashing it) to win half it's games. 

From a nonbiased perspective I would say that looks to be a trend upward.  With mostly someone else's mess. So I would not say he couldn't do it if he got a real shot to build his own mess for the first time. But I would prefer he not make a mess of things.  Although it would be hard to imagine it could get any worse. 

 

 

 

I went back and looked at that Cardinals year.  He won 3 games and lost 4 games by 3 points or less.

Their QB was a top 10 rookie who managed 11tds and 14 ints with a QBR of 24.3.  He was out of the league within 3 years.

The next year - with a new coach and shiny new #1 QB, they managed 5 wins.

I would give very little weight to his head coaching experience in AZ, other than on-the-job learning. 

18 hours ago, Cdparr7 said:

“Bozeman resigned, Sam Resigned, Shaq Kept, Burns restructured”

Tell me you don’t know football without telling me you don’t know football.

We have about 1 million in cap space. League may go up 5 million this year to put us at 6. What exactly are you going to restructure with Shaq and DJ? How are you going to restructure Burns on his 5th year option? He is going to want market value around 20 million per year. Which puts us at -14 million. Bozeman’s market value is 15-17 million per year which puts us at -30 million. Need 10 for draft picks which puts us at -40 million. And Sam will be around 5 million per year which puts us at -45 million without signing anyone else.

Just to close the loop on this - Signing Bozeman for a 3 year, 36m contract may look something like this...

He gets 12 million up front and his salary in year 1 is 1m.  He earns 13 million in year 1.  His bonus is spread over the term of the contract.  Salary in years 2 and 3 are unguaranteed, so he can be cut with significant cap savings if something goes wrong.  Dead cap hit in year 2 is 8m.  Dead cap hit in year 3 is 4m.

Burns is due to make 17m next year.  A restructure/extension could be 5/125 with a signing bonus of 30m.  It could look like this...

Burns earns 32m in 2023 instead of 17m, but the cap hit goes from 17m to 8m.  We save 9m on 2023 cap.

1 hour ago, Cdparr7 said:

No way we have the money for all this.

Burns and DJ restructures save us money in 2022.  Signing Bozeman won't cost much as the salary cap hits are back loaded.  Darnold may cost 3-4m.

I'm also assuming Wilson and Elf are cut - freeing up another 8m or so.

The rest is just coaches and draft picks, which will not impact salary cap in a meaningful way.

• Wilks hired as HC.
• Reich hired as OC.
• Bozeman resigned.  Darnold given 1 year deal.
• Burns extended.
• DJ restructured. 
• Shaq kept.
• Levis drafted at 9.
• TE and Edge in 2nd.
• RB in 3rd.
• LB and S in 4th.
• OL in 5th.

18 minutes ago, Soul Rebel said:

I think all three are gone by 9. QB needy teams will identify us as a team to get in front of if they want a QB, so if one is falling from 5 on, I would imagine we get leapfrogged at 7 or 8. 

IF we want one of Stroud/Young/Levis, I think we have to move up with AZ. If we could hold out to move up to pick 5, the assets we would have to give up would probably only be #9, our SF second rounder, a day three pick maybe this year, and maybe a 2024 3rd or 4th round pick.

I would hedge my bets that two QBs go in the top 4 and then we move up to 5 for our new QB. We still get to keep our 2nd round selection to add a starter.

Personally, I'd rather draft Johnston at 9, and add two more starters in round 2. Grab a TE for Corral and find a dance partner for Burns or Woods with the other selection.

There are a lot of moving parts.  I think Young and Stroud will both be gone, but I don't believe Atlanta or Vegas takes Levis.  I could see Tennessee at 11 or the Jets at 13 moving up for a QB (even though the Jets may be gun shy from the Wilson experiment).

We know Fitterer will sign someone in FA - because you can't go into the draft with just Matt Corral on the roster.  We should give Corral a chance to develop - see if anything is there - but not totally count on it.

If Levis is sitting there at 9, I'd take him - but no way I trade up.

If Levis is gone, I go Edge or WR. 

Who knows, maybe we sign Tyrod Taylor, roll with Corral, trade back with the Jets for an extra second, and end up with Mayer and 3 seconds.  That might be fun. 

3 minutes ago, trueblade said:

Are we willing to wait? He may not be available until after February 12 [if the Eagles make it to the Super Bowl].

That's a week after the Senior Bowl.

I know.  I think they can interview him in the next week or so.  If they like what they see, they will have to wait until Eagles' season is over, which could be as early as Jan. 23, but probably later.

It will be interesting to see if he gets an interview.

My prediction...

They will try for Steichen.

Wilks is the fallback option.  But Wilks will have to hire Reich as OC.  He'll keep Holcomb as DC.

2 minutes ago, CRA said:

And Horn isn't Ramsey. 

Not yet.

3 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

Geno Smith needs to be paid and Jared Goff isn’t a good enough reason to pass up on a QB if there’s one you like. 

Both of these teams are only picking this high due to La and Denver. This might be their best chance to land a QB without having to trade anything 

I feel like Smith and Goff are both better options than Levis.  (Stroud and Young will go to Indy and Houston).  Especially if you could use the pick for a stud in another place of need.  Imagine adding Quentin Johnson to Detroit or adding Myles Murphy to Seattle.

23 minutes ago, CRA said:

Fields has played in 27 games and been available for more. 

Horn has been available for 16 games and played in 16

Those aren't the same.  A season is 17 games.  Horn has yet to suit up for a season worth of games over 2 years. 

and it's an old wives' tale that a QB shouldn't and can't run.   He is young with horrible weapons.  If you put him in a good position, he could run less.  It's not a Fields problem.  That's a Chicago problem.  And the more time he gets the smarter he will run.   But running isn't a problem.  It's a positive. 

Given that we basically were knocked out of the playoffs by giving up 3 long passes to Mike Evans should have clued you in to the fact we need a shutdown corner.  Horn is a shutdown corner.  He was the right pick.  Getting hurt in tackle football is just bad luck.