grimesgoat

If we run the table, that means Sam Darnold just went 6-0.  How do you not offer him a contract?

Give him a 2-year, 8 million, game manager contract.

Draft Richardson or Levis in the first if they are there.  If not, target McKee in the second.

Let Corral and Shiny new QB duke it out for the future.

2 hours ago, Bear Hands said:

Nice write up.

If we're rolling with him come season's end, we really need a focused search on getting a legitimate offensive mind in house that won't leave immediately for a HC gig.  Priority #1 alongside QB.

I think we need an offensive mind that can produce a solid ground attack and focus on long drives, moving the chains, and keeping the defense rested.  I don't know if you need some superstar genius to accomplish this - just someone on the same page as the head coach.  I've been pleasantly impressed with Mcadoo's creativity over the last several weeks.

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

I could see it. I’m fairly certain the job is his barring a collapse and I’m fairly certain will be up and down around .500 and we’ll do the dog and pony show again in a few years. I feel like we’ll be good enough to beat bad teams and not get lucky finding the QB gem. Like Herbert and Tua, we’ll keep missing by that much.

Hopefully not, but as of right now we’ll be like having Ron with no Cam.

Its exactly like Ron without Cam.  And until we get a really good qb, we'll tread water.  Move the chains, control the clock, and keep the defense fresh is a solid strategy, but its probably not a formula for winning a superb owl.

We need to get another youngster in the building with Corral.  Richardson would be ideal because he could use his feet to keep drives alive.  I like McKee in the second if Richardson is gone.   I almost hope Richardson is gone when we pick because the TE Mayer would be perfect for what we want to do.

Maybe our draftee sits in 2023.  Or maybe we go old school and give him a drive or two per game to wet his feet until he is ready.  Could be fun to watch the progress.  He just needs to value the ball and be ready and able to take advantage of too many defenders in the box.

In 2024, a youngster takes over (Corral, Richardson, McKee).  That's when we can start to dream big.  Dreaming of winning a SB this year or next is foolhardy.  We are still building.  2024 and beyond will be our time to shine.

We will win 8 this year and make the playoffs.  We will lose to Dallas by 7.  Wilks will be given a 3-year contract.

In 2023 we will draft a 1st round qb, run the ball 65% of the time, and win 9.

In 2024 expectations will be sky high.  Anything less than 11 wins gets him fired, playoffs or not.

After things shake out, I think we end up picking in the 15-20 range.  I suspect Richardson will still be there.

I'd take Richardson and let him sit and learn his first year.  Re-sign Darnold to a cheap 2-year deal.

Take the Georgia TE in the second along with a Edge to pair with Burns.

Maybe a LB in the third.

We will be a running team in 2023. Our defense will keep things close. This will net 7-10 wins.  In 2024, Richardson steps in and we will have more offensive balance.

This is the way.

23 minutes ago, Verge said:

I think it is worth noting that Florida did not use his skill set ideally and really didn't even start working with his strengths until later in the season. He certainly needs some development, but he can be put in a run first offense that takes advantage of play action and read option and succeed right away. He is not as raw as someone like Malik Willis was. 

Thank you for this - this makes me feel much better about possibly drafting him in the 9-15 range.  Our MO has always been run first, and I doubt it changes anytime soon.  Re-sign Foreman, and pair Richardson with the big TE from Georgia in the second and we may be starting to build something.

5 minutes ago, CanadianCat said:

Why would we release him at this point?

opens a roster spot?

1 hour ago, saX man said:

This isn't as loaded of a WR as in years past but Jordan Addison and Quinten Johnson are both awesome.  I'm quite satisfied we landed Horn in 21 and Icky to have a future LT, but I would be lying if I wasn't jealous of what Garrett Wilson and Justin Jefferson have been doing and did have a strong spider sense with both.  I just don't see how Addison doesn't come into the NFL and is a hit off the bat.

Not to mention a whole group of others in recent years that have been propelling teams into the playoffs and beyond.  Chase, Higgins, G Davis, Brown, Deebo, Smith, Jefferson, CeeDee, Metcalf, the list goes on.  The best teams have these arsenals of weapons and you just can't stop stocking up.  

I'm not going to be content with DJ & the potential of TMJ after this year.  We need to keep adding for a new QB.  But yes, of course the QB is the greater priority.

It's why in the likely case of us going QB first, would love to grab Zay Flowers/Hyatt/Hutchinson in the 2nd.  This class starts to drop off IMO after about WR 5ish.  

  

I've been thinking about this and I've gotten on and off the WR train several times this year.  I'd love a stud WR like Johnson, but the Panthers like to play conservative.  I think they want to ground and pound, meaning a game manager type QB and a strong ball-control running attack.  I think we'll be picking around 9-12, which is the perfect place to draft the TE Mayer.  Then grab another developmental QB in the second, maybe McKee. 

I think the QBs will fall. The only teams that will be looking at QB first round are Houston, Carolina, Indy, TB, and maybe Atlanta.  I think Houston will take Young.  Indy will give up everything to move up for Stroud.  Atlanta has Ridder and Mariota is still under contract next year.  Tampa Bay will probably sign a vet - not sure they are ready to rebuild.  Everyone else is probably ok with who they have.

I think Levis, Richardson, or McKee will be around if we want them late in the first/early in the second.  Risk reward is better there.

If Darnold goes 4-1 in the last five (meaning he would be 5-1 on the season), we will be picking around 12-16 and the current coaching staff will still be in place.  We will be out of range of Young and Stroud.

We should sign him for 2 years, 12 million - with 6 million guaranteed (meaning we can cut him in year two for a cap savings of 6m.)

Use the first for Mayer or an Edge, then use a second on another developmental QB - Levis, McKee, Richardson, Penix, Ward, etc.  One or possibly all of these will be available.  Darnold is a bridge at a reasonable cost while we develop two young QBs.

Even if Darnold sucks the rest of the year, I doubt we go into the draft next year with just Corral on the roster.  We'll offer someone a 1 year, 5m deal, just to have an adult in the room.  If Darnold is terrible, Young or Stroud will be back on the table.  I could see Houston taking Stroud and Young falling due to his size.  It would not shock me if he fell all the way to the 7-10 range and we snag him.

I said several weeks ago, there is a somewhat realistic scenario where everyone in our division finishes 7-10 and we make the playoffs with the best in-conference record. 

I realize we would then be picking around 18/19 and out of the top QB chase, but hosting a playoff game could be a positive building block.

19 hours ago, ECHornet said:

I've posted before that I'm a fan of trading back and getting Mayer! Love that idea. Just not with one of the top 5 picks in the draft. I think we can add draft capital and still pick him up somewhere in the #8-10 range. 

I don't think Mayer is going to blow everyone away at the combine like Kyle Pitts did, and he was drafted #4. 

I agree. I just have a feeling we will not be picking in the top 5. I think we will win 3-4 more games which will leave us in the 9-12 pick range, which is where Mayer should go. 

22 minutes ago, ECHornet said:

If we miss on the top 2 QBs this draft, I think trading back is the right move. Stack picks and draft a Richardson/Duggan/Penix type with one of our 2nd rounders. Let them battle with Corral next year and if the results are terrible, trade the farm for Drake Maye or Caleb Williams.

The problem is the team with Pick #1 next year (assuming it is not us) likely sucks and needs a QB.  They will not be trading that top pick for anything.

If we are in a position to draft Young, then I would do it.  Otherwise, get a late first/second round type guy to compete with Corral and use the first on Michael Mayer, the TE from ND. 

Everyone focuses on the QB position, and rightly so, but if you look at most of the most recent superb owl winners, you see dominating TE play - Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz.  We really need that guy to help our young QBs along.

45 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

Trade out. Get more picks... so we can land players like this:

 

 

I like him, but I think he will go in the top 6 and we will be picking in the 10-12 range.  I think the guy we end up with and the guy that will help this team more than any other is Michael Mayer.  Maybe its because I just watched what Kelce can do last night, but a big pass-catching stick-moving TE is desperately needed.

I doubt we stay at in the top 2, but I'll go on record of preferring Young.  Size will be an issue in his first few years as he gets use to the speed of the NFL, but he is really good at ducking out of harm's way, from what I have seen.  His instincts are mahommes-like.

Baker is 3-5 against the ravens.  It's not unthinkable that this is close.  I don't expect a win, but if the ball bounces our way a couple of times, we could pull off a surprise.  I put the odds around 20%.  We should at least cover, for what that's worth.

10 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

We still have a shot at the playoffs...

 

Looking at everyone's remaining schedule, there is a decent chance all 4 teams finish 7-10 and we win the head-to-head tie-breaker.  We have by far the easiest remaining schedule.  We probably lose to the Ravens and Seahawks, but the rest are winnable.  It could come down to the head-to-head games within the division in the last two weeks.  Could be crazy.

34 minutes ago, Aussie Tank said:

Isn’t all the super QB needy teams passing till the third more telling the ones that NEEDED one? 

I just think assuming he's a bust because he was not a first rounder seems premature.

Other than Pickett, I think the consensus among prognosticators was that all better QBs - Ridder, Willis, Corral, Howell - were going to need a redshirt year and would probably be late first or second rounders.

You can remind me which teams were "super needy".  I recall Pittsburgh, Carolina, Houston, and Seattle were all assumed to need QBs.  Detroit (Goff), New Orleans (Winston), Atlanta (Marriota), and Washington (Wentz) were sort of on the needy list at one time but certainly not desperate and could be patient.  Why would any team consider a late round 1 or round 2 talent at QB if their franchise guy was already there.  Much bigger needs.

So Pittsburgh took a QB in round 1.  Atlanta used their 3rd on Ridder (a project), the Titans surprised by going Willis in the 3rd despite having Tannehill, and we moved ahead of Detroit at 97 to grab Corral at 94.

The only surprise to me was Seattle and Houston passing multiple times on QBs. I guess a case can be made there, but still weak.

Bottom line - I think most teams did not need a QB or were not comfortable with giving a development year for this group. I think we were extraordinary lucky to get a guy with the potential of Corral late on the second day.  I view him as a second round talent that slipped a little for non-football reasons, and could be really special with some seasoning and coaching.  

14 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

If in round 3 there is a tackle that we value as a first round guy then hell yes

Isn't that what happened with Corral?  We valued him as a first round guy and we drafted him in the third.

Glad to see you coming around...

5 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Then there is this thing in the draft called "value"........

Are you ready to draft a T in the first round again this year if a T is the best value on the board?  Or would you rather consider a TE, QB, or Edge that may have slightly less "value".

4 hours ago, Aussie Tank said:

A lot of may have’s or could’s in your arguments. But I’m arguing facts 3rd talent proven in draft, injury prone (college and pros) and didn’t show a thing on the field against scrubs. Factor in a new coaching staff but I have the blinders on. Come on have some common sense 

In my opinion, your conclusion is flawed.

The first two days of the draft are based on talent and need.  If a team doesn't need a quarterback, they will not draft him in the first 3 rounds, despite his talent.  You simply can't say, for example, that GB, KC, Baltimore, SD, etc. all thought he was a third round talent.  They didn't pass on him because they thought he was a third round talent, they simply didn't need another QB. 

If he wins 5 of 7 and somehow wins the division (which means hosting a playoff game), then I'd offer him a 2-year contract.  If he can make some chicken salad out of the chicken poo he was given, I'd reward him.

Some of you guys might want to prepare yourselves.

We have 3 home games in which we should be favored - Lions, Steelers, and Broncos.

We have 2 games which we will almost surely lose - At Ravens and At Seattle.

Our last 2 games are At Tampa and At Saints - both of which could be toss ups.

While Baker certainly underperformed under Rhule, he is a competent QB.  We could win 5 more games.  This is not likely, and will not get us in the playoffs, but we'd be looking at picking around 11-15.  If Mayfield does win 5 of 7, I could see us offering a modest 2 year, 20m deal and drafting Richardson in the early teens.

Oh and Eason was cut a few weeks ago.

If the raiders continue to suck, they will end up with the 1st or 2nd pick.  They may want to re-set with Stroud or Young.  Carr might be available for a 2nd.  I think I would do that and let Corral learn.

We'll be picking somewhere around 5-10.  Get a stud WR or DE in the first and call it a day.

Trading DJ wasn't happening because of the cap hit.  And assuming the GB pick is top 10 is also flawed.  DJ could have been the difference in GB making the playoffs this year.  If Rogers has a legit weopon, they could be dangerous down the stretch.

Same is possible with Burns.  Burns on the Rams may have been enough to get them into the playoffs in the coming years, making those future picks less valuable.  Fitts may have thought it would be difficult to find another Burns in the 22-28 pick range.  It's always risky betting on the demise of another team.

Having said that - I would have done the Burns deal in a heartbeat.  It seems like a real missed opportunity to me, given our now extended timeline.

But those CMC, Robbie, and Daley trades were way better than I expected.  I'm optimistic we will be able to improve the team through the draft over the next couple of years.  Especially if we are picking top 3.

Ultimately Fitterer will be judged not by an individual trade but by wins and losses.  He'll ride or die with the next head coach.

3 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

PFF grades:

CJ - 53

 

2022 3rd round corners

Martin Emerson - 76

Cordale flott - 59

Marcus jones - 71

 

 

You were saying?

Is this a joke?  Are these YTD? 

Flott hasn't played since week 3.  In 2 games played he's had 60 snaps, been targeted 6 times w/ 5 completions.  Yards per completion: 13.0.  5 tackles on the year.

Jones isn't much different.  Played in 4 games, 75 snaps, targeted 8 times w/ 2 completions.  Yards per completion 22.5.  4 tackles total.

Meanwhile Henderson has logged 347 snaps, been targeted 39 times w/29 completions at 11.1 per.  He has 33 tackles and 1 Int.  Not bad for a 3rd rounder.

We watch Henderson play and we get frustrated because he's a top ten pick.  But it is a mistake to judge Henderson as a 1st rounder.  He was clearly over-drafted.  But as a third rounder, he's pretty decent and should improve.  I have no problem with trading for him.