AU-panther

12 hours ago, FuFuLamePoo said:

It's pointless to talk about right now, we need to see how he plays this season. Again, the new coaches have spoken very highly of him so maybe this is his true breakout season. Right now I'd offer him around 12M AAV and if he thinks he can find more elsewhere let him go find out. All I know is I'm firm in my belief that so far we have overrated him because of where he was drafted. We're a better team because of him, but he's far from irreplaceable. 

It wasn’t pointless when you acted like people were crazy to expect more than 15-20m.

On 7/15/2023 at 1:53 PM, thunderraiden said:

If you take less than the equivalent of 4 first round picks you're a moron. Thats how much a top 10 edge rusher is worth because the hit rate is 25% in the first round...

Your logic is incomplete.

You don't just replace Burns production with just the draft picks, you replace his production with the $25m you save. 

The eagles had similar production out of Reddick for $15m.  The draft picks are just bonus.  

but...

What if you  make the argument that Reddick or any other replacement isn't quite as good as Burns.  Maybe you spend $15m to get 80-90% of Burns production then spend the other $10m to improve another position?  Is the goal to have the most talent at one position or overall?  How much can you improve another position for $10m?  A good bit I would guess.  

I'm not saying don't pay Burns, once you reach a certain overall talent level on your team you should spend the extra on true difference makers, and Burns might be that but to say the trade was bad because the chance of draft picks being better is terrible logic because you are totally ignoring the cap savings.

Fans tend to think about trades and personnel moves in a vacuum, that isn't how it works.  Every trade, every deal has a ripple effect.  

On 7/15/2023 at 10:11 AM, FuFuLamePoo said:

We’re trying to act like he’s someone that he isn’t solely because of draft positioning. Had we taken him in like Round 2 (where I had him graded) no one is acting like we have a potentially 15-20m/per year player on our hands.

Exactly how much do you think he is going to sign for? Personally I think the idea of $15m is laughable. 

1 hour ago, JawnyBlaze said:

Quoting PFF doesn’t help your argument. In ‘21 he was still very good, flashed great at times. He just wasn’t very good in the way that impresses most people (like PFF). He did the dirty work. And he was very good at it. Overreactionary people (and people who don’t look past surface stats and roles) around here were throwing out the bust label while I and a few others were pointing out how he was actually doing what he was supposed to be doing very well.  Not perfect, not elite, but certainly not mediocre. He was only mediocre if you’re trying to compare him to a different type of DT that wasn’t his role (which is what PFF does). 

So where exactly is PFF calling him mediocre? 
They actually have a very good ranking on him.

People need to stop box score scouting.

His pass rush is better than people realize.  Just look at his pass rush grade also.  Sacks don't tell the whole story, often the guy that gets the sack isn't the guy that caused the sack.  Pressures are important.

Either way, If he has another year like last year he will get paid as being elite, so people might shocked at contract time.

I think he is a good prospect but two things make me nervous.

When you play for Alabama or an Ohio state the game is relatively easy.  Your line is better. Your skill positions are better. How do you react when you are on the bad team, Constant pressure, or receivers who aren’t open.

Also his arm strength seems A bit less that other prospects, that doesn’t necessarily prevent you from having success but it can decrease your margin of error.

2 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Breer isn't as in the business of doing mocks on a regular basis. He prefers to do just one close to the draft and vets his choices with personnel people.

What does he foresee for the quarterbacks? Obviously Bryce Young goes first overall to the Panthers because he's been saying that for a while.

The rest are listed below:

4. Colts - CJ Stroud

The Colts wind up getting CJ Stroud without moving up at all after the Texans and Cardinals take other positions. Mind you, Breer does believe the Cardinals could potentially deal their pick...to the nervous Colts. Same result.

12. Texans - Will Levis

Like the Colts, the Texans also get a quarterback without trading up. In this case it's Levis, who Breer acknowledges could also go to Indianapolis.

So whither Richardson?

19. Bucs - Anthony Richardson

To Tampa, who + having Baker Mayfield - can afford to sit him for a year while he adjusts to the NFL.

...

So basically, we get the guy we wanted after massively trading up while everybody else gets one by just kinda sitting there.

Not sure I like how this plays out for us...

...and I'm probably not alone.

But if we hadn’t traded up, we probably don’t get the guy we want so the fact they get who they want without trading up is irrelevant. 

There is also a very good chance that the guy they wanted the most was the guy we took.

So I’m reality they didn’t get they guy they wanted by staying put, they got their second or third choice by staying put.

2 minutes ago, Pantherzilla91 said:

If they can't get it right the first time why would i trust them again?

Teams miss on QBs all the time.  Some seem safer than others, for example Luck vs Mayfield, but not are 100%.

I like Young but I don’t consider him as safe as a pick as a Lawrence or Luck. 

5 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Based on the sources, the only bet I would make is one that these stories are horsesh-t.

They're trying to make money on some sucker bets.

That’s not how sports books work in regard to setting lines.

They aren’t lowering odds to entice bets, most likely they are because money had been coming in on Levis for whatever reason.  They lower the odds to reduce their risk. 

5 minutes ago, Pantherzilla91 said:

That's absolutely stupid

Maybe, maybe not.

Drafting a QB is a gamble, are you odds better with 2 rolls of the dice? 

34 minutes ago, Cdparr7 said:

I said this on another post, but my guess would be that we made a deal with Houston for 12 & 2 for pick 1 and Levis is the guy in that scenario.

I’ll happily take Levis at 2 if we get Houston’s first next year.  If we doesn’t play like we hope we can draft another next year. 

2 hours ago, MHS831 said:

There might be 2 or 3 QBs in next year's draft who will become starting material.   Two or so will bust.  There will be 8-12 teams who will be looking for a QB.   So you waste a year waiting for a 25% chance of drafting a QB that has a 50% chance of being successful?

The guys seem better now because they have not been scrutinized like this group has been--yet.  S2 scores, measurables, tape, combine, interviews, etc. 

To the main point:

the NFC South is ripe for the picking NOW.  THIS year.  Anyone in the NFC South planning for next year when they have the pick of the litter NOW should be tried and convicted of committing a felony and fraudulently misrepresenting the fan base if they make moves to have a chance to draft the 2024 QBs

that's my point exactly, if they only have a 50% chance of being successful wouldn't your chances be better by having 2 of them.

3 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

When people start hyper focusing on Williams as an NFL prospect they're gonna realize he holds onto the ball foooreeeerever. I'm not sold on him translating to the NFL if he can't speed up his processing.

What are your opinions about Maye?  I'm guessing you have watched him a little.

The points of my post was hypothetical at best, do people really feel like QB 1 this year has that much better of a chance of being good than some combination of two QBS over the next two years?

Would you take Young or AR and Maye? or even Levis and Maye? or Stroud and Williams?  Is Young really that much better of a prospect?

As fans and front offices tend to think in very binary terms about these QB prospects, we convince ourselves that whatever QB we like has a 100% chance of making it and whatever one we don't has a 0% chance of making it but history tells us we are usually wrong.

1 minute ago, OceanPanther said:

The QB class of "next year"  is always talked up as being better than "this years" .   Many thought Levis would be the number 1 QB coming into this draft...  till he played another season in college.

A bird in the hand ( Bryce Young ) is better than 2 in the bush (  AR and maybe Williams or Maye )

As others have said.. nice conversation but it's not going to happen.

I agree the sure thing is the safest, but Levis was never considered a prospect on the level of Williams.  Williams is looking like a Lawrence or Luck type of prospect.

I don't expect us to trade down, if you trade down and then the QB that goes 1st turns out to be great you get second guessed, and those are the type of moves that get you fired.  If you stay put and take the person a lot of people think is great and if they don't turn out it just gets chalked up to bad luck.

A lot of people on here when talking about trading down, say with Houston, really want their extra 1st round pick this year (#12), but I'm thinking the really aggressive play is next year's 1st.

Both Indy and Houston were terrible this year, not just record but their point differential, I don't expect them to be much better, so there is a very good chance their 1st next year could be a top 2 pick.  Also, next year's QB class, especially at the top, looks to be really good, namely Williams and Maye.

Lets say Indy is open to trading up and giving us next year's 1st, would you prefer Young at 1 this year, or whatever QB falls to 4, maybe Stroud, Levis, or AR plus a really good chance at Williams or Maye next year?  You are almost giving yourself 2 chances to find a QB, and let's be honest, any QB you draft is a gamble.

The thought of AR this year and maybe Willimas or Maye next is pretty tempting, if AR looks like the real deal those picks are worth a fortune, if you are sure about AR you take a QB.  Talk about swinging for the fences.

Of course, this whole plan goes out the window if Indy wins 7 games and picks 6th.  Also I don't if any GM has the nerve to try something like this, I don't know if I would, could be a quick way to lose your job.

17 hours ago, FakePlasticTrees said:

Let’s be honest though. Mayfield is bigger and has a better arm. It seems to me that Young’s vaunted processing speed and understanding is Young’s sole competitive advantage. 

I do not believe processing speed can possibly overcome Young’s historic (by weight) size limitations. Ultimately his inability to play from under center will partially erode any accuracy advantages that he has since the running game will suffer. Furthermore, Young is not even particularly athletic. He is the least athletic and has by far the weakest arm of any of the likely first round QB picks in this draft.

It as if Young’s intelligence and likability of caused an outbreak of confirmation bias. Little to no real discussion has been had related to Young’s obvious limitations. Scouts just mention Young’s small stature and quote his “phony” combine weight without any real discussion of how he will overcome those limitations. There has been little to no discussion of Young’s inability to be effective from under center as evidenced by the fact that I think he only had single digit snaps taken from under center last season.

There was little to no discussion of the floating nature of some of Young’s deep passes and lack of real zip on intermediate passes. 
 

Great kid. Maybe even a natural leader. Competitive. Smart.
 

Historically small, on the weak side of average arm strength, lack of athleticism, does not thrive from under center, etc.

I predict an injury plagued and shortened career. Young may well be the most NFL ready QB in this draft. However, again, that will not overcome his obvious limitations. Other QBs in this draft will have longer and better NFL careers. Young is NOT worth the overall number 1 pick much less the overall number 1 pick, multiple draft choices, and the Panther’s best wide receiver.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If his size is limiting his ability to play QB at a high level but he played QB at a higher level than the other 3 guys in college what is their excuse?

Im not 100% sold on him either but my concerns with his size relate to durability not his ability to play QB, those are two different things. 
 

2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

I don't think they've told anybody because I don't think the pick is made yet. They've repeated multiple times that it isn't.

"Leaning" maybe, but nothing definitive.

If they stay put at #1 it's probably pretty definitive at this point who they are taking, regardless of what they are saying.

Now the part that might still be debatable, is what would it take to move off of that #1 pick.

1 minute ago, JawnyBlaze said:

I’m saying I as a fan (same as them, as nothing more than fans, not being in football themselves or anything) don’t try to place a number grade or pass my opinion off to the masses as a definitive evaluation. I have my opinions and ideas, but I wouldn’t expect you or anyone else to take my word for it. I’d hope you’d do your own research. 

but you will go with QBR which has absolutely no eye test component at all...

32 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

I have an automatic reaction that goes back years to anyone posting PFF grades as if PFF is in the huddle and meeting rooms with the teams and knows what they’re supposed to be doing. The objective stuff they put out, or less subjective (like catchable balls), doesn’t get as much of a reaction out of me. But the stuff that involves decision making and qualities like that, that PFF has no foundation for making a judgement on, I automatically respond with “PFF is trash” heh

So what you are saying is as a fan you have no idea if a player is good or not because you don't know the play either?

1 hour ago, JawnyBlaze said:

I don’t like QBR either but it’s better than PFF, PFF is straight trash. Only good for looking up concrete stats that aren’t subject to their “interpretation”. 

Beaded in what? Exactly how is QBR better than pff grade? 
 

QB throws a terrible pass that bounces off of the defenders chest, WR catches the deflection, makes 4 defenders miss and scores a TD.  QBR grades goes up for the QB.  PFF grades goes down for the QB.  I prefer that trash.  
QB throws a check down to a wide open RB that makes a spectacular 40 yard run     for a TD or QB makes a perfect 40 yard pass to a WR while under pressure, which is more impressive? QBR views them the same, PFF does not.  Which one sounds like trash now?

18 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

https://www.carolinahuddle.com/topic/183592-how-the-top-qbs-performed-when-faced-with-pressure/?do=findComment&comment=6139497

Check out the last paragraph in that post. 

QBR is a stat based metric that doesn’t isolate the QBs play. 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-draft-profile-c-j-stroud-ohio-state

10 hours ago, PanthersGOATFan336 said:

 

Every stroud hater is going to lose it,  their arguments are dispelled by numbers or film..The guy is just elite..it'd be a outright shame to pass on him for teddy bri....Bryce young. I'll cheer for the panthers regardless but missing out on a pure, accurate passer and thrower of the ball is asinine

 

Being blitzed isn’t the same being pressured.  His line could have picked up the blitz.  Go look up his grade under pressure and how it compares to the other top QBs.

With that being said, I’m not against stroud, just when using stats you need context.

7 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D. said:

I disagree. Simply because of the current WR contracts. Adam Thielen is literally the only WR we have on contract in two years. Contracts will expire after this season for DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Preston Williams, Stephen Sullivan, CJ Sanders, and Derek Wright. Shi Smith and Terrace Marshall are expired the following season. We need a young WR to develop with a 4 year rookie contract.

but at 39 you are probably looking for someone to contribute this year and you just spent money on two guys to contribute this year.  

Add in the fact a lot of people consider this WR class weak, if we draft one, I expect it to be later.

Here again, nothing is set in stone, just my opinion.

Also if you are going to look at who is on contract at two years you just can't look at the WRs.

How many 3-4 DEs on contract in two years?

How many LBs on contract in two years?

Not really loaded their either.

Just now, Daddy_Uncle said:

DE, LB or CB would be great at 39. All are deep position groups and we could probably get a steal

True, and that is something they might have took into account when trying to decide where to spend money in free agency.

You could counter that argument and say the TE class is really deep so why did we spend in free agency, but to be honest with a potential rookie QB, I always thought we would look for experienced skill positions.

It's impossible to predict what a front office might do during the draft, but you can look at free agency and get a pretty good idea.

Of our free agents we singed 4 with decent contracts that were either TEs or WRs: Thomas ($3.325m APY), Hurst ($7.25m), Chark ($5m), and Theilen ($8.33m).  To put those contracts in perspective only 20 players have higher APY than Thomas, those are get on the field contracts. 

2023 NFL Free Agents and Free Agency (overthecap.com)

Like I said earlier, nothing is guaranteed, maybe some WR or TE with great value falls, but If I had to guess I'm thinking DE, LB, or CB at 39.  

From a lot of reports this is a very strong TE class, we might decide we can get good value later.   By a lot of reports the WR class is rather thin, I could see us not drafting one at all, or taking more of a project guy later.