panther4life

11 hours ago, glenwo2 said:

 

So in other words, there is no one out there worth going after.

And your solution is to do what the Jets did and toss whatever rookie we get straight into the fire?

 

We might as well re-sign Sam (or sign Brissett) if that's the case.     Let them get run over while the Rook sits, watches, and learns on what to do or  not-to-do as a QB or something. 

 

We are within striking distance of having the ability to trade up for a rookie QB who can help this team be competitive. I believe in Young or Stroud with the current roster we have more than any available vet. 
 

I wouldn’t have suggested this with last years class.  However at some point you have to get a QB and this seems like the most logical year to after one. 
 

1st round picks are never a guarantee at any position but I’m willing to take that risk for the most important position on the field.

How much longer do you want to wait to try and secure a franchise QB and even if we wait how do you plan on getting one?

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I agree with everything you summarize except for finding a rookie who can start this year. It's hard for me to believe any of them should or could start this season. 

Considering the new head coaches that are going to be facing the same dilemma we are facing. And most owners want results now its difficult for coaches to put their job security in the hands of an unknown rookie. 

The offseason is going to be interesting as free agency will say a lot about the draft. Fan frenzy over the top players and what their team should do is usually far from the reality of what actually happens. 

We’re just in a tough spot there. We have already wasted a 2nd(38th overall in 22), 4th and 6th on Darnold not to mention the cap space. Plus last years 4th and this years third for Corral (76th overall this year)

Too late to edit but Brissett is obviously not on rookie contract at this point.

Here are the top active QB's, you can adjust the order but these arguably the top 24 (top 75%) only in order of who came to mind. Again this is not an exact ranking, so don't focus on that part.

Bolded names are still under rookie contract. 33% of them are still on rookie contracts.

• Patrick Mahomes average annual salary 22.22% of teams cap
• Joe Burrow
• Justin Herbert
• Josh Allen, average annual salary 22.34% of teams cap
• Aaron Rodgers, average annual salary 26 % of teams cap
• Jalen Hurts
• Tua Tagliova
• Lamar Jackson (free agent)
• Dak Prescott average annual salary 19.75% of teams cap
• Deshaun Watson average annual salary 23.9% teams cap
• Trevor Lawrence
• Kirk Cousins average annual salary 17.28% of teams cap
• Daniel Jones (free agent)
• Kyler Murray average annual salary 23.95% of teams cap
• Derek Carr (free agent)
• Jared Goff  average annual salary 16.54% of teams cap
• Rusell Wilson average annual salary 25.2% of teams cap
• Matthew Stafford average annual salary19.75% of teams cap
• Justin Fields
• Geno Smith (free agent)
• Jimmy Garropolo (free agent)
• Ryan Tannenhill average annual salary 14.57 % of the teams cap
• Mac Jones 
• Davis Mills or Jacoby Brisset, your choice.

In terms of being available via unrestricted free agency I can only see Carr, Jimmy G and tiny outside chance of Geno smith being available without trading assets.

Carr will be 32 next month, Jimmy G is 31, and Geno smith is 32. I don't see any of them going to a new team for much less than Tannenhills 14.57% of the cap, which would be annual average of at least 35 Million per year. I don't know maybe Jimmy G will take less, but with so many teams in need of a QB and lack of them available he seems to have decent leverage. 

This leads us to Jacoby Brissett who is 30 years old and played for Reich before. However his career winning percentage is 18-30. He might be a  upgrade over what we saw last year but in no way has proven himself to be more than a capable backup.

Regardless if it means staying pat at 9 and taking BPA there or taking a swing in round 2 or possibly packaging picks to move back into the 1st, I just can't see how we could justify doing anything other than selecting a rookie QB who can start this year at least by the 2nd half or if injury dictates sooner. Here's to hoping this front office can pull something off and I am totally ok with them doing whatever necessary to land the right guy.

6 minutes ago, rayzor said:

dream on, jonesy. not going to get that anywhere. you getting ready to get tagged.

Franchise tag for 23 is 32.4 million and 41.7 in 2024. That's a total of 74.1 divided between 2 years, so that's an average of 37 million over the next 2 years. I think that would become the bare minimum. If they met in the middle of 45 and 37 per year that rounds out to 41 per. 

For comparison the total value of the 1st overall pick is $40 million over 4 years! With only a 7.5 million cap hit in year 1.

If the Bears are willing to trade that pick and we believe in of these QB’s I don’t see how we can say no to any offer short of them asking for more than 3 1st rounders. 
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/

2 hours ago, The Crown and the Claw said:

While I guess things could change I have gotten zero sense that the Panthers are planning on seriously pursuing Carr or any other high priced vet QB. If anything they might kick the tires and do some due diligence but that’s the extent  

The plan since Reich’s hiring and all the staff brought in since have been about drafting and developing their own franchise quarterback. I don’t know where others are “hearing” things but at this point it’s much more likely to trade up in the draft than sign or trade for a current signal caller. 

This is music to my ears!

4 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

I've said it elsewhere, many times over. Here we go again.

I'd stay out of the Carr, Lamar and probably Aaron Rodgers kerfuffle that is going to see at least two teams overpay and get cheated. Look for another vet to fall out of contention who can serve as a good bridge/backup.

Let the coaching staff take a good, solid look at Matt Corral -- which I am sure they have already done at this point. If they think there is a possibility there, go with him and look to add that veteran presence to help him mature quickly. If he's not the guy, then move to the draft.

In the draft, forget about the massive manboy crushes the four top QBs are attracting right now. Two out of four are statistically going to wash out and cost teams mightily. There's a chance that it's three out of four. Let someone else waste good potential on bad returns. One out of the four will most likely be excellent, but which one... no one knows.

In the first round, we set back and let the worst teams pursue those QBs, leaving much better players on the board at #9 than one would normally expect. We take the best player available. My pecking order for this would be DE, TE, LB, CB. At number nine it is almost guaranteed that at least one of bona fide best at their position players will be left in one of those spots. Take them.

In our first pick in the second round, grab the best of the remaining positional guys from what is left from that list of four.

Stay out of the quarterback race at all until the end of the second, probably the early third round. There are going to be some very good QBs there... Tennessee, Georgia and TCU will all have QBs out there still, perhaps not Madden-darlings, but solid, battle tested and championship earning guys. There's where the finds of the draft will be. Grab the one that best suits our coaching staff's long-term vision. Go into camp with them and Corral competing for the job, spurred along and cushioned by a good journeyman vet.

Wish PJ Walker the best and maybe give Darnold a chance for back-up QB money, perhaps with some incentives for playoff performance.

Build the team they want and give some QBs a chance. If those QBs don't clear the bar, we still have high picks out there and the perennially bad teams will have probably four high pick QBs filling their rosters and won't be in the immediate running next year. 

Fair enough. Will be really interesting to see how this all unfolds. 

2 hours ago, SCO96 said:

True. But they didn't win with they guy they traded up for. They ended up getting a QB through a trade who had never won a playoff game with his previous team, Matthew Stafford.

 

Agreed. In hindsight the same thing happened in 2018. Allen and Jackson should have been the top 2. Baker and Sam went ahead of Josh and Rosen went ahead of Lamar. It just goes to show that the top 2 guys picked aren't guaranteed to be the top 2 QB's in the class

Wentz didn't finish the regular season or play in the postseason. Peterson's brilliant coaching that year and a strong supporting cast allowed the Eagles to beat the might Patriots with a career journeyman/backup...Nick Foles. When Foles left town Wentz was unable to hold on the job and has been traded to two different teams. The Eagles made it back to the SB with a 2nd round draft choice.

Correct. However, they were able to go most of the season with Jimmy G (2nd round pick) and Brock Purdy (7th round) as their starters. Trey Lance has contributed to none of the success the 49ers have had for the past two season. He may blossom in time, but at the current time its' looking like they didn't need to trade away all of those picks to move up to select him.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2021/6/18/22533745/looking-back-at-the-trades-that-landed-josh-allen-for-the-buffalo-bills-notes-nfl-draft

Check out the link above for the details of this trade. Buffalo ended up jumping from #12 to #7 with 2 trades. The first with the Bengals moved them from #21 to #12. The gave away their starting tackle and pick #185 and got pick #187 in return

Then they traded with Tampa and moved from #12 to #7 and parted with two picks in the 2nd round (#53 and #56) and got #255 in retuen

They didn't away multiple #1 draft choices in back to back years like people seem to be suggesting we should do. And, as I've brought up before, the Bills were a playoff team the season before they drafted Allen with Tyrod Taylor at QB. I love Allen play, but so far he has yet to make it to an AFC Conference title game.

Moving up to get QB's in the top 5 in recent years has not produced one QB who won a SB with the team that drafted him.

 

What’s your plan for QB and winning a SB?

3 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

You realize that by your own statement, grabbing those moves in the first round neither helped nor harmed them. 

But they did hurt the teams. Most of them have had changes of coaching since then (or are on the cusp of it). In each case, it was opportunities squandered. And in the 49ers case, it was just blind luck that the injury to Lance panned out so well, between Jimmy G and Purdy. 

Opportunity cost is a real, real thing. 

We shouldn't trade up, particularly when we are in a cap crunch like we are. We need to bring in multiple new guys on draft contracts to help us offset some really bad contracts and the lingering dead cap money from others. If anything, we should be willing to trade back and pick up more capital to spend less capital.

Trading up into the first four picks of the draft, by the actual choices made historically over the last 8-9 years is just a terrible decision. The results don't lie.

 

I understand that the odds aren’t in our favor based on history of trade ups. I’m just willing to take a gamble based on where we find ourselves and that I think Stroud or Young would succeed with the rest of this roster and coaching staff.

I know you hate the idea and would like to hear what you think we should do to address the QB position?

2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

There's some very, very important information here that is missing. So, let me fill you in. Who got picked with those trade ups???

For the first example, the number 1 pick was used to get Jared Goff. Whew, not great.

For the second example, pick number two was for Mitch Trubisky. Roundly considered a massive bust.

For the third example, pick number two was for Carson Wentz. He couldn't outplay Taylor Heinicke. At all.

For the fourth example, pick number three was for Trey Lance. Injured, so incomplete, but will probably be carrying a clip board behind last pick in the same draft... who played very well

For the fifth example, pick number three went for Sam Darnold. Y'all know him.

For the sixth example, the  pick number four went to grab WR Sammy Watkins. He's been on six teams since he was drafted, the longest stint in Kansas City. Not worth the trade..

None of these guys were worth what was traded away for them. Keep that in mind when we look at the possibility of giving away a lot to move up in the draft.

Example 1, Rams have still won a Super Bowl in spite of what they gave up to move up.

Example 2, the Bears picked the wrong QB. They should have taken Mahomes or Watson. They didn’t but were in position to do so.

Example 3, still won a Super Bowl and made it back again just last year.(Eagles).

Example 4, short of their QB room being depleted by Injuries sure could have been in the superbowl this year.(49ers)

Example 5, was actually the Bills who landed Josh Allen and we know they don’t regret it.

Aside from the Bears regardless of what those teams gave up all of them have been in Super Bowl contention, even with many of them missing on a QB. So not quite the devastating effects you might assume.

6 minutes ago, Reebis21 said:

Yea but what if the bears trade away the 1st? Then what u propose we do? That’d mean 2 QBs are already off the board by the time the 3rd pick rolls around.

I think we have to whatever it takes to get up to 1, assuming the Bears even willing to part with it/ go down all the way to 9.

We have assembled the best possible coaching staff to groom a rookie and have a line that can protect them.  The timing just seems right to take a swing here. This coaching staff and the current talent we have makes me believe we won’t be inside the top 10 again, especially since our division is such crap

The only thing holding us back is truly not having a franchise QB. With the cost being so prohibitive to acquire a vet via cap space alone and potential other assets just all cements the time is now in my Mind.

Fwiw it’s worth outside of the Gettleman years we have largely knocked our 1st round picks out of the park, yet it’s done nothing for us. Getting Cam got us closer to back to back winning seasons and even a Super Bowl performance. So I don’t know that losing a couple 1st round picks is really the end of the world, especially if it lands us a franchise QB.

We also tried to trade the farm for Watson, so I can see Tepper and co being on board if we identity the right guy.

We have made the playoffs 8 times as a franchise. In 96 it was largely because of our defense. 

With Cam we made it 4 times and 3 other times with Jake at the helm. It’s no coincidence that they are the 2 best QB’s in our history. 
 

When looking at recent Super Bowl winners, or even conference championship teams, they all have a top tier QB paired with a good HC.

Im all in on at least trying taking a swing for one, as opposed to the 0 back to back seasons us nailing 1st round picks has done for us.

Here's a recent look at the history of top 5 overall picks traded 

**There are trades where future 1st became top 5 picks but this is strictly regarding trades made to move up in a current draft. For example the Browns could have had Watson at 12 back in 2017, but traded down to 25 with the Texans and received 4th overall from the texans in the next draft. Kind of ironic considering they just paid 3 first rounders plus to get him years down the road.

First number 1 overall:

Last traded 2016, Titans to Rams, 

Titans received: 2016 picks: 15, 43, 45,76. 2017 1st(became 5th overall) and 2017 3rd (pick 100)

Rams received: 1st overall, 4th and 6th round pick

The last time number 1 overall was trade in 01 for Vick

2nd overall pick:

Last traded 2017, 49ers to Bears

Bears received 2nd overall pick

49ers received 3rd overall pick, 67, 111 and the bears 3rd in 2018

2016 the Eagles traded up from 8 to 2 with the browns

Eagles got 2nd overall pick, and a 2017 4th round pick

Browns got 8th overall pick, 77, 100 and 2017 1st round pick and 2018 2nd round pick

3rd overall pick: Last trade 2021, Dolphins to 49ers

49ers got 3rd overall

Dolphins got 12th overall, 1st and 3rd round picks in 2022, 1st in 2023

2018 the Jets traded from 6 to 3 with the Colts

Jets received 3rd overall

Colts received 6th overall, 37,49 and a 2nd round pick in 2019

4th overall pick: Last trade 2014 , Browns to Bills

Bills received 4th overall

Browns received 9th overall, 1st and 4th in the 2015 draft

5th overall pick: Last traded Jags to Bucs

Jags received 5th overall

Bucs received 7th overall and 101

These trades should serve as a good gauge for what it may take for us to move up to select a QB inside the top 1-3.

Draft position of teams MOST in need of a QB are bolded

1. Bears, no need unless they decide to trade Fields

2. Texans , Davis Mills was not good enough to preclude them from spending this pick on a QB. 

3.Cardinals( they are married to Murray and 0 threat to draft a QB, but possibly a great trade partner)

4. Colts, after hiring Steichen who helped groom Hurts, surely they must be eyeing a QB here. Could they try and jump their division rival and move up all the way to 1? I would if I were them.

5. Seahawks, Possibly. We will know more once we see what kind of deal they sign Geno Smith too, if at all.

6. Lions, seems unlikely. 2 more years on Goff's deal and Ben Johnson stayed for a reason.

7. Raiders, Clearly after releasing Carr and reports of being cash poor, a rookie QB here or using this pick to move up makes a ton of sense. 

8. Falcons, Right now they lead the rumor mill in the Lamar Jackson trade potential. They have the cap space to sign him to a mega deal, so maybe there's something there? MHS831 already pointed out, this would just put the Ravens in a place to take a QB with this pick and give them additional ammo to move up.

9. Panthers Finally here we are. We may have a slight advantage over the Falcons in a trade up scenario as have 40 and 62. Their 2nd round pick is 45.

-------------------

11. Titans, Yes they are behind us, but if anyone falls, they might like to jump us.  This is also Tannenhill's last year of his deal there, so we will see if they extend him.

13. Jets, Who knows what their plans are but again someone within range to potentially trade 

My quick thoughts.

Texans likely won't trade down but may try to secure number 1 overall if price isn't too steep, as a defensive approach from having the Colts (or anyone really)jump them.

Cardinals seem like the absolute most likely trade down candidate but how far would they be willing to go?

If no trades happen through 3, Colts can stay right there and have the 2nd QB selected, or possibly even 1st if the Texans miraculously pass one.

Raiders are a wildcard and do crazy things, but safe to assume they would look strongly at QB at 7 if they don't trade up.

Lastly, I don't even know if it's possible for us to move up to the 1-3 range if other teams are offering a lower 1st this year and similar future compensation. I think I would be ok with trading 9, 62, 2024 1st and 2025 1st if that got us to number 1 so we can have the QB of our choice. If were talking trading to 3, then that would have to be a draft day decision imo because, 1 and 2 could easily be back to back QB's.

Bears picking 1st overall, are we convinced they don’t take a swing at Stroud or Young?

Surely the Texans at 2 would select one of them.

Cards at 3 are married to Murray based on his contract.

Colts at 4 need a QB as badly as we do.

Seahawks at 5 have Geno Smith but was he good enough to stop them from drafting a QB? Luckily he’s a free agent, so the contract he ultimately gets or doesn’t should tell their intentions.

Lions at 6, is Goff good enough for them to not take a QB, if Stroud or Young falls this far? He has 2 years left on his deal and could potentially be a trade asset if they choose to draft a QB.

Raiders at 7 are cash poor so a QB on a rookie contract would be most ideal for them and seem like a good candidate to move up to secure a QB

Falcons at 8, seems unlikely Stroud or Young could fall this far but if they did surely the Falcons take them.

Finally, here we are at 9. 0 chance Stroud or Young make it this far. So we’d have to trade up and that’s assuming we can put together an enticing enough package. Not sure how Levis is viewed internally or with teams above of us, but seems plausible that if he’s viewed as a better option than Carr, then unlikely he makes it to 9 either.

If we’re dead set on landing a top rookie instead of Carr, then we better hope he signs with the Texans or Colts. However if he does sign with one of them, is that a sign that the top QB’s in this class are being over rated?

I’m really unsettled on what to do here but can’t wait to see it all unfold.

9 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Crown and Claw pegged this one too.

Wonder if that means Caroline Cann comes back to the team site.

Sure did. Whoever that is has legit intel.

1 hour ago, Carolina Cajun said:

Not to be that guy, but Duce won his super bowl as a player while playing for the steelers.  I knew somethin was off because before 2017 the eagles hadnt won a title in like a billion years.

I appreciate the fact checking and correction.  I also left Tabor off the post completely but once I realized it, was too late to edit. 
 

28 minutes ago, Cdparr7 said:

Yeah what fugging Cam Newton is in this draft?

I agree, I desperately want a young top 10 QB but if there’s one in this draft it’s certainly not crystal clear.

Caldwell has 2,  (Super Bowl 41 with colts and Super Bowl 47 with the ravens)

Capers and Campen earned 1 together with the packers (super bowl 45)

Frank Reich (Super Bowl 52 with the Eagles)

Ejiro Evero (Super Bowl 56 with the rams)

Deuce Staley 2( Super Bowl 40 as a player with the Eagles and Super Bowl 52 as a coach)

That’s a total of 8 rings on the Super Bowl staff so far. McCown and Hansen are the only 2 coaches under contract so far without a ring.

OC candidates:

Brian Griese is the QB coach for the Niners. He’s done a great job with whoever they’ve thrown out there from Jimmy G to Nick Mullens to mr irrelevant Brock Purdy. I also don’t mind that he’s a former player and learned Under Shannahan.

Brian Johnson, Eagles QB coach has done a tremendous job with Hurts who someone didn’t get drafted until 53 in the 2020 draft.

Dave Canales QB coach for the Seahawks since 2010. Was there for Russel Wilson’s prime and helped Geno Smith resurrect his career and of course well over a decade learning from Pete Carroll.

Brian Hartline O.C Ohio state. He’s a former player and coached Chris Olave, Garret Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. as a receivers coach at Ohio state. Was just recently promoted to O.C last month at Ohio State, so he may be a long shot.

Defensive position coaches.

Lovie Smith, Gus Bradley and Kris Richard are the biggest names I can think of.

Anyone else I’m missing?

Awesome, now let’s throw some money at Kris Richard to be the secondary coach. 

I’ve included the top 2 consensus rookies to see where you think they fit in as well. 

 Joe Burrow

 Josh Allen

 Justin Herbert

Tua Tagovaiola

Jalen Hurts

Trevor Lawrence 

Lamar Jackson

C.J Stroud

Bryce Young

9 minutes ago, stbugs said:

You’ve got rookies and 2nd year guys like Highsmith and Hutchinson and guys like Smith and Miller who missed a year as well. If you looked last year Burns doesn’t make the 13 either. Other younger guys who just got to the mark and didn’t have it the last 3 years.

That’s why I just took this year’s 9+ to see how many were drafted or signed recently.

Either way, it’s not this impossible task and honestly just getting Burns lite with a FA makes the trade having 3 really good picks.

Burns had 12.5 last year, so he surpassed this 9+ mark you’re stating. 
 

Either way, enjoy the game and I’ll gladly resume this tomorrow with you!

7 hours ago, stbugs said:

A few notes, besides the fact that McVay was honestly thinking over coming back. I think if we had taken the trade, McVay retiring was probably a lot more likely as they would have been draft poor for 3 more years.

1. According to our own site 11 of the top 50 draft prospects are edge rushers.

2. Recent edge FAs (or trades) with 9+ sacks this year: Reddick, Judon, Watt, Houston, Smith, Ngakoue, Nwosu, Hughes, Mack, Floyd, Chubb

3. Recent draft picks with 9+ sacks this year: Parsons, Uche, Highsmith, Hutchinson, Taylor

That also doesn’t include recent draft picks like Phillips who will get there (only looked at last 3 drafts) or FAs like Miller and Hendrickson who didn’t get to 9 sacks this year. I only looked at 9+ sacks so I’m sure I’m missing more good recent edge rushers as well.

If Burns was a stud against the run too and completely took over games, he’d be in that elite level but he’s not and there are a lot of FAs and rookies, especially this year based on top prospect lists, who can just rush the passer.

Getting 9+ sacks out of one player consistently is tougher than you’re making it sound. Check out this site, it’s great for looking up stats like that.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/who-has-the-most-sacks-the-last-3-seasons

Only 13 players have 27 or more sacks over the last 3 seasons (averaging 9 or more).

Burns is the youngest one on that list, granted Parsons just missed it in only 2 years but he’s an outlier.