panther4life

34 minutes ago, gmonjimbo said:

 

I would also suggest if you have time watch a full game. That's where you notice the number of pre-snap protection and adjustments he made. I think Saban mentioned giving him 2 plays before the snap then Young will read the defense and make the play call. Does are the little things you don't see on the highlight video or all passes video that matrer. 

Very good point. Just don't have time go back and watch the full versions.

37 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

 

on a related topic, I really miss that website that existed years ago that would chop up games of prospects into every play they were involved in, for QBs it was entire games with every single throw and passing play. I forget the name of it, I remember it had a red theme. That site was great and really helpful for armchair GMing. 

nfldraftbreakdown was the site and it was amazing. Now its still something draft related but not worth anyones time.  Had more than just QB't too, some maniacs took the time to cut up the games to just snaps WR's just blocked in or were targeted.  Same for other positions too. 

Luckily, as I am sure you know(but sharing for those that don't ) now days you can still find most of the same stuff on YouTube by typing a players name vs opponent. For example "Bryce Young Vs Tennessee"

I also agree with you that the best way to get an idea of a prospect is to actually watch whatever game footage you can find online that showcases how they do throughout entire games vs just highlights. Takes only a few more minutes to watch 4-5 entire games than you just watching 1-2 highlight videos so well worth the investment. I also appreciate the advanced stats too, because it forces me to go back and watch if it doesn't align with my original thoughts.

31 minutes ago, CPF4LIFE said:

See i can read all this and then watch tape and still not know what other people are seeing. Stroud is just a better pure qb to me.

 

That was 2 minutes lol and mostly against Michigan. I stated his last 2 games he showed more of having to go through progressions (Michigan and Georgia).

To be clear I have no bias towards Bryce and nothing strongly against CJ. I’ve always said I have CJ as 1A and Bryce as 1B. But I’ve forced myself to hear others opinions, research advanced stats to confirm what I thought I saw, and force me to rewatch and capture things I was wrong on. 

This guy does a great job of explaining why despite his talent as a pure passer this is why there are questions on Stroud:

And if you really want to do a deep dive here’s C.J’s whole 2021 season condensed down into less than a 1.5 hours. 

Lastly if you want more viewing material, you can literally google Bryce Young vs (insert team) or CJ Stroud vs (insert team) and you will find almost every one of their games condensed down into 10 minutes or less per game. 

I have literally watched 75% or more of every pass both QB’s have attempted the last 2 years this way and it’s really helped me understand who they are. 

Anyone participating? I’m not personally but still fun to look at.

According to DraftKings for pick 1

Bryce -1400

Stroud + 700

Richardson + 1500

Pick  # 2 odds are 

Will Anderson +150

Levis +250

Tyree Wilson +250

Stroud +275

Young +850

Jalen Carter +1500

Anthony Richardson +1800

No odds on pick 3.

Side note: I wonder how much validity there is to the  reports/thoughts of the Texans disliking Strouds agent David Mulugheta( same as Deshaun Watson) so much, that it could be a tiebreaker or some deciding factor in them passing on Stroud. 

Would the Texans really take Levis or Richardson at 2? Or trade out all together? I’d assume if they don’t take Stroud they have to trade to someone who does.

I can’t wait to see where all of these QB’s land.

29 minutes ago, CarolinaRideorDie said:

I fully believe that Young is the correct choice at QB for us and I'm glad he is the pick. However, what did Stroud do to fall so out of favor? If Houston doesn't want him at 2, was Stroud overhyped? 

I really think it’s because he didn’t face enough adversity or consistently demonstrate an ability to look for a 2nd or third read as often as Bryce had to. 

It’s almost unfair to him that he’s being knocked down a notch because the offense he played in was so efficient that he knew where the ball was going 90% of the time pre-snap and it obviously worked.

In his last couple games he really faced tougher situations and actually rose to the occasion quite well, but just had not shown enough of that throughout the year.

Lastly, when you go back and look at the 2021 seasons, Bryce really outshined him and it’s easy to see why he won the Heisman that year.

On the flip side, CJ has shown consistent improvement and has abilities that just aren’t teachable(incredible timing, accuracy and ball placement).  
 

I feel like with Bryce you don’t have to project or guess as much what he is or can be. C.J you have to use your imagination a bit. Lastly we don’t know how they interviewed and did on the chalk board in private meetings. Clearly that had a big role in this whole decision. 

I’m not a fan or pro comps but if you insist google Fran Tarkenton highlights. 

Getting a weird message when trying to embed videos, so you’ll need to take an extra 2 seconds and google him. 

13 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

To be fair, I'd expect that to be something that they would have discussed even if Young were just a possibility.

I know guys will see this as confirmation of Young being the pick, and he very well could be, but this doesn't really say anything definitive.

I concur that it's not 100% definitive but from my perspective and for the reasons I listed, it sure seems very likely.

4 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Possibly, but it is kinda hard to say for sure given that's the only guy everybody seems to be asking about.

It didn't seem like a hypothetical answer when asked about a nutrition plan for Bryce. I'd have to go back and watch again for the exact quote, but is was something to the effect of "we will", vs if we took him we would.

The answer about the pre-draft visits regarding Levis and Stroud coming today seemed like a politician trying to sound politically correct but it sure seems they have already made up their mind and have all but they have. Maybe meeting Stroud in person was a requisite for that but that's the impression I get.

Lastly the little smirk at the end they all showed on the last question when asked if anyone really impressed them on their personal visit and he answered with a WR he won't name, I think will be something Fitt,Cole and Morgan will high five and laugh about because he didn't take the bait and say Bryce.

They won't come out and say it but it seems clear Bryce is the pick. 

20 minutes ago, rayzor said:

I will say that whoever we draft at QBwill do better than the guy(s) we didn't draft just because of coaching and the overall situation. 

I just feel that we are better set up for success than Houston or Indy for sure.

That is truly an undeniable fact and will likely be forgotten when the history is written. 

Wow good for him. That playoff run was amazing. 

2 hours ago, WOW!! said:

Context question??

Is it just the number 1 pick and it’s for our team as constructed now??

I should have clarified, if you were to trade the pick today which QB's would you trade for right now making the pick.

My answer would be in this order:

1.  Mahomes 

2. Joe Burrow 

3. Josh Allen

4. Justin Herbert 

Outside of them the question becomes a little tougher.

But other possibilities would have to be.

Jackson, just iffy on him because of his injury history and how he's been during free agency this year.

Lawrence, I have not seen more than a couple of his games and his stats so far don't seem to support the hype around him.

Hurts, I loved what he did during that playoff run. However that's my only exposure to him and he his stats aren't amazing either. 

7 minutes ago, travisura said:

Just the one pick? Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Lawrence, Jackson, and Hurts.

Not sure the point of this question though.

Just something fresh to talk about.  

All things considered, age, contract, etc. Which active NFL QB’s would you gladly trade our current number 1 pick for?

I’m old enough to remember when teams sat players down in front of a Nintendo and had them play duck hunt to test this skill. 

Great assessment. Based on years prior I think there’s always great value to be had at WR/CB in round 2. 

48 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

In the weeks prior to the draft, it can get a bit slow.  So I thought I would share.  I decided to analyze each position to the best of my ability. Then I wanted to develop a strategy to enter the draft, based on need.  I do these kinds of things to help me see it more clearly--but I thought I would share since I went to so much trouble.  I realize there will be disagreements, but I wanted to see if we are pretty much on the same page--to me, we have 5 needs we MUST address in the draft, and I would love to see us grab a TE, but I doubt we do.

DEFENSE

OFFENSE

MHS' Ranking of Needs:  Here I considered the difficulty finding a quality player at that position, the impact the expected player would have, the immediate need, and the long-term need.  This gets very difficult, but I settled with the following:

1. QB.  Obviously

2. Edge.  As of now, Burns is the only outside threat to pressure the QB.  I expect Barno to improve and we know that we have depth in Haynes, but YGM ain't a good fit or good player (so far).  Coincidentally, rarely do you have a draft where you can find quality edge players in early round 2--but that is the case this year.  Grab one.

3.  Cornerback.  Horn and Jackson have been injured quite a bit, and Jackson is coming off an injury that could rob him of his best asset--quickness.  Henderson and Taylor are most famous for appearances on Mike Evans' 2022 highlight video. 

4.  Wide Receiver.  The Panthers need a play maker, and the future needs some talent. Some will put this need in front of CB and maybe even OLB/Edge, but I do not see it that way.  Chark is often injured (hopefully that is not the case here) and Thielen is reportedly getting older.  We can't trust Smith or TMJ yet, but I have faith that TMJ showed signs of the light coming on last year and Smith is the player we will upgrade. 

5. Offensive Line:  The Panthers need solid depth at all times, especially if they are going to draft Young.  Personally, I question T depth (Coleman?  not sure if he is there answer there), and I think G could use another player. If we take a hybrid, I would hope for a T/G hybrid as opposed to a C/G hybrid.  C (Bozeman, McCray, Mays, and Tecklenburg is covered)

6. TE.  Hurst is not the long-term solution, but he should be strong in 2023.  Tremble should emerge from the developmental label into a solid TE, and I am high on Ricci as a receiving TE/hback.  Thomas is great as a #3 TE; he just should not start.  Still, with this draft, a solid TE is likely to drop to day 3 and if that happens, you take the BPA and upgrade your TE group.

Based on my assumptions, here is my draft strategy.  It is 100% accurate and it is exactly what the Panthers will do.  That is all.  I have spoken.

(Seriously--it all depends on how things shake out--I could see the Panthers taking a WR or CB with the 39th pick.)

1.	Round 1, pick 1	Quarterback: Bryce or CJ
2.	Round 2, pick 39	OLB/ Edge: There are many ways we can throw players at this situation, but a pure, elite pass rusher is needed to take pressure off Burns and the inside pass rush.  Panthers have had known contact with Ojulari (Edge, LSU) and Hall (Edge, Auburn), which suggests possible round 2 curiosity for an Edge.  NOTE: These players should last throughout the second round, so Fitterer may trade back to the end.  Names to watch:  BJ Ojulari, LSU; Will McDonald IV, Iowa St; Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State; Derek Hall, Auburn….
3.	Round 3, pick 93	Cornerback:  This may be a bigger need than WR because our CBs are often injured and their backups are often burned. The 3-4 will allow more zone in covers 2 and 4, so maybe this is not as big a need as thought. This draft has some talent at CB, and some could fall to late day 2. The Panthers have had Kansas State CB Julius Brents in for a visit, as have many other teams.  That suggests third round curiosity.  Names to Watch: Brents; Turner, Michigan; Hodges-Tomlinson, TCU; Rush, South Carolina; Smith, Minnesota; Ricks, Alabama…
4.	Round 4, pick 114	Wide Receiver:  There are surprising names that could fall past the third round. Charlie Jones and Jonathan Mingo have had visits with the Panthers, which could suggest a WR on day 3.  Names to watch:  Rice, SMU; Dell, Houston; Scott, Cincinnati; Mims, Oklahoma; and Perry, Wake Forest, Jones, Purdue; and Mingo, Mississippi….
5.	Round 4, pick 132	Tight End:  While the Panthers may not show (on paper) an immediate need at TE, the class is deep, and a quality TE can possibly be found at the end of round 4. Perhaps a warning that this won’t happen is the fact that the Panthers do not seem to be showing interest at this time--  No TE are known to have interacted with the Panthers to date. This could be for OL depth and not TE.  Names to Watch: Schoonmaker, Michigan; Wylie, Cincinnati; Latu, Alabama…
6.	Round 5, pick 145	Offensive Line:  With Mays and McCray backing up Christensen, Bozeman, and Corbett, perhaps a swing T to develop is in order. A few players who are injured right now may become a day 3 value, so I am targeting people who could fall.  Names to Watch:  Vorhees (injured G/T), USC; Javon Foster (LT), Missouri; McLendon, (RT/G) Georgia; McFadden (T/G), Clemson; Rouse (swing T), Stanford, Anthony Bradford, OG, LSU …
7.	Undrafted Free Agents	Names to Watch: Bumper Pool, ILB, Oklahoma

Love this type of content, thanks for sharing!

While I do believe people in the media will run with any tidbit of info they receive and combine that with their own opinion/thoughts I absolutely refuse to believe any NFL team is fooled by said smokescreens leaked through the media. 

Shame on all of us who didn't take the free money by betting on Young when 2 weeks ago and now betting on Stroud today.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/analysis/nfl-teams-moving-out-from-under-cenet-riding-shotgunnfl-teams-riding-shotgun/

According to this article 66% of all snaps were in the Shotgun formation last year. Only 3 teams took more than 50% of their snaps from under center and one of those was the patriots who also have a former Alabama QB (Mac Jones) who rarely took snaps under center in college.

Really worth reading the entire scouting reports linked (same author, Dave Richard CBS sports).

Bryce Young https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/bryce-young-2023-nfl-draft-profile-fantasy-football-scouting-best-fits-dynasty-advanced-stats-more/

Quote

• Arm strength is good. Multiple examples of passes traveling downfield as far as 48 Air Yards.
• Finished top-15 in 2022 among qualifying QBs (at least 250 attempts) in yards per attempt (8.8), TD rate (8.4%), TD-INT ratio (6.4 to 1), and passing efficiency (163.2). 
• Threw to his running backs 18.2% of the time in 2022, 10th-most among all qualifiers.
• Credited with just a 10% off-target pass rate, seventh-best among qualifying QBs
• 43.3% completion rate on throws of over 15 Air Yards, 46th out of 98 qualifying QBs in 2022.
• 10.0 ADOT, tied for 40th among qualifying QBs
• 749 of his 3,328 yards were on deep throws.
• 71.9% completion rate when NOT pressured (24th among 98 QB w/ 250+ attempts)
• 46.4% completion rate when pressured (42nd among 98 QB w/ 250+ attempts)
• 12 of his 32 touchdowns came on pass plays of 20-plus Air Yards.
• Four interceptions over 140 career red-zone pass attempts (and two interceptions over 66 attempts inside the 10).
• 48.5% career TD rate on passes thrown inside of 10 yards (24th among 188 QBs over past 5 years)
• Eliminating kneel-downs and sacks, Young ran for 231 yards on 42 carries (5.5 average) with four touchdowns, all between 4 and 8 yards away from the goal line.

 

C.J Stroud https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-2023-dynasty-landing-page-with-new-rookie-only-mock-nfl-draft-profiles-rankings-and-more/

Quote

• Played 121 snaps under center, which is a lot for a college quarterback these days.
• Finished top five in 2022 among qualifying QBs (98 passers with at least 250 attempts) in yards per attempt (9.5), TD rate (10.5%), TD-INT ratio (6.83 to 1), and passing efficiency (177.7). He was better than Bryce Young in each category. 
• Threw to his running backs 4.6% of the time in 2022, 97th out of 98 qualifiers.
• Off-target on 12.6% of his throws, 42nd among all qualifiers (only 2.6% worse than Bryce Young, who was seventh-best).
• 10.3 ADOT, 12th among qualifiers.
• Two interceptions over 124 career red-zone pass attempts, and ZERO interceptions over 53 attempts inside the 10 (both better than Young).
• 47.2% career TD rate on passes thrown inside of 10 yards (Young's was 48.5%).
• When pressured completed 41.3% of his throws with 21.3% off-target for 5.7 yards per attempt, per Pro Football Focus. Young was better in all three categories.
• 66.3% completion rate, 20th best among qualifiers (and better than Bryce Young).
• 50.8% completion rate on throws of 20-plus Air Yards, third-best among qualifiers (Young was 18th).
• 56.0% completion rate on throws of 10-19 Air Yards, 45th among qualifiers (Young was third).
• 56.0% completion rate specifically on throws of 16 or more Air Yards, third-best among qualifiers (Young was 46th).
• 75.9% completion rate on throws of 9 or fewer Air Yards, 19th-best among qualifiers (Young was 74th). 
• Had 215 yards on easy throws -- quick outs, WR screens, backfield outs and shovel passes (Young had 212).
• 121 snaps from under center (15th most in the nation; (Young had four).
• Excluding kneel-downs and sacks, averaged 3.3 yards per rush, 42nd among qualifying QBs.
• Arm strength is definitely good, but expect something more like Kirk Cousins than Josh Allen. He threw five passes of 40-plus Air Yards in 2022 (three for touchdowns) with a maximum of 45. He did max out at 51 Air Yards in 2021 (11 throws of 40-plus Air Yards last year, but completed just two).

Also if you like advanced stats and have not come across this site, it's worth checking out as well:https://nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com/nfl-draft/home

Young's page https://nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com/prospect/bryce-young

Stroud's page https://nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com/prospect/c-j-stroud

Bryce and C.J tied for 1st in their overall metric at a score of 99 a piece and most other metrics they are very close on as well.

A few highlights from that sight include ( 22 season stats unless otherwise noted)

• Average depth of completion (yards beyond the line of scrimmage). Stroud led here by a little over a yard per completion. 8.3 Yards vs 7.2 Yards for Bryce 
• On target %. Young led here. 77% for Young vs 74% for Stroud
• Young had a higher passer rating vs pressure, man defense and short throws. Stroud had a higher rating vs Zone defense and mid range throws.
• Stroud only had rushing yards from scrambling 32 times over last 2 years vs Young who scrambled for yardage 65 times
• Lastly to my surprise Young had a better passer rating on deep passes (20+ yards beyond los) than young, granted they don't detail the exact rating's, so could still be very close.

1A.Stroud

1B.Young

That being said, not only do we not have the expertise and experience the decision makers have, we also don’t have the access to intel, knowledge, advanced analytics etc.  

So I fully trust them as long as it’s one of those 2. 

5 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Nah. I said I wouldn't hold my breath when I saw Stroud taking a hit.

Young, on the other hand...

oh, I read it wrong! Thanks 

4 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

There is a certain physical element to that debate, but it's not about athleticism. It's about durability.

Young is as good a quarterback as I've seen in a long time. Stroud has the intelligence, accuracy and processing ability that I look for too, though.

The difference id I don't feel like I'd be holding my breath every time Stroud took a hit.

Did you invert the names on accident here? You'd be holding your breath every time Stroud (the bigger one) took a hit?