TheMostInterestingMan

12 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

So that means that there is a positive correlation between high processing speed and success in physical activities like quarterbacking. But given their data on quarterbacks upon which they decided that an 80 was a cutoff score was 117 quarterbacks over 8 years which they culled done to 27 starting quarterbacks and did their analysis. They are suggesting from that they can predict with 100% that a really low score means you won't be successful. No outliers so far because your N is so low which makes it very limited to use for prediction until much more data has been captured. And if the adage is not judging rookies until year 3 why are they using 2021 data? You wanted questions. I got em...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.com/4430449/2023/04/20/panthers-nfl-draft-bryce-young-s2-test/%3famp=1

Look, I’m not saying the test is immune to criticism nor am I saying that your questions aren’t reasonable or founded. There’s no need to be hostile. I was fielding questions specifically as it pertains to what the S2 itself is and what it measures.

But again, if you want to believe reports, low scores on the S2 seems to remove players completely off of draft boards. So it would seem many teams value the S2 and take it pretty seriously as a metric. I’m not sure why you are seemingly taking an issue with me as all I’m doing is attempting to explain what this test is to those who clearly don’t understand it based on the “CJ isn’t smart” comments. Because his S2 score has nothing to do with his intelligence. So this post seemed warranted. 
 

Never did I say it was flawless. And certainly time will tell how effective it is. But certain teams seem to value it very highly and early on they seem to be into something in terms of talent evaluation. 

16 minutes ago, PanthersGOATFan336 said:

Go enjoy the day buddy, it's too nice out for you to be this distraught

 

The issue is that he has a point and you are dodging it like the plague lol

4 minutes ago, BrianS said:

I think what S2 is trying to do is put numbers on mental ability (not intelligence).

It's easy to measure physical attributes of potential NFL players.  The rub there is that within those measurable attributes, there are outliers all freakin' over the place.  High physicals, abject failures.  Low physicals, HoF career.

I think it's too early in the history of the S2 to tell us whether it's successful or whether it has tons of outliers and whether those outliers are at the high end, low end or elsewhere on the scale.

As it relates to Stroud, it would certainly give me pause simply because the delta is so large.  I'm a Stroud fan, for sure, but the test does give me pause.  I'm sure the Panthers are in the same boat.

I think the key it provides is simply how quick your mind works. A QB has to scan the field, go through his reads and make a decision in under three seconds. This test doesn’t identify if he can do this during a live game but it does indicate if he’s capable of doing this well in general which is potentially a huge identifier.

3 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

The issue isn't whether the test measures what is supposed to or even if a person over time scores similarly without significant practice effect. It is whether small differences in processing speed, visual field, spatial visualization, roblem solving which are actually measured by many nonverbal IQ tests to differing extents, is predictive of success in the NFl.  To say no one who ever scored low actually suceeded suggests no outliers at all which I suggest is because the N is too low. Beyond that though is the other end of the spectrum.  How many scored high and didn't succeed. You need to know that to decide what to think of Young. Was a difference of 10 points predictive of success or failure or was it only at the extremes which would be predictable. What if a really low score is a big reg flag but small differences in scores don't really mean much about success. 

That’s why nobody is using it to rank their draft board alone. You could have all the physical tools but be unable to process information fast enough to succeed in the NFL (maybe Darnold?) or have an elite S2 score but physically be unable to use that ability against elite NFL athletes (the potential worry about Bryce Young).

The point of this post is to explain to people what the S2 actually is and what it actually measures. 

There is direct correlations of how successful of a marker the S2 is both in baseball and in football however. And the evidence suggests that you are indeed much more likely to succeed if you have a high score. And that makes perfect sense once you understand what it is measuring.

4 minutes ago, PantherOnTheProwl1523 said:

He don't need to say anything because the league already knows the answer. The scores are none of our concern and the only ones that do have any concern is the league.

This does however directly contradict those saying “a team is leaking it cause they want him to fall” because if every team has the info then that wouldn’t be the case.

I don’t know what is true but both of those sentiments certainly cannot be true 

Here’s the PFF podcast with S2 co-founder Brandon Ally discussing the test and how it translates to different positions on the football field 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_C4JT7T4pdY&pp=ygUYUGZmIHBvZGNhc3QgYnJhbmRvbiBhbGx5

I think this is a pretty good watch if you want to dive deep. This is how it translates to another sport but makes a lot of sense and gives a broader scope of what it’s testing for. This sis how MLB is using the test to identify things such as elite level hitters. You have to process and react insane fast to pitches near 100mph so it’s easy to understand why S2 has been an incredibly reliable marker for this.

5 minutes ago, Icege said:

Any particular resources that you would recommend for folks interested in learning more about the S2?

 

EDIT: Found the company's primary website and am looking there now. For anybody else that's interested: https://www.s2cognition.com/sports/football

I’ll post a few more in here in a few minutes. Granted I drive for a living so most of my information has come from interviews and podcasts but I can provide plenty of those as well as some reading material I’ve come across. 

Just now, XClown1986 said:

It really is an interesting test. They have found a way to test instincts and mental reflexes. There is sometimes no substitute for these traits. Could eventually help to evaluate all kinds of fits in the work force where people are required to think or adapt on the fly. Beats the hell out of the SAT or ACT in my mind. 

So I’ve been a CJ Stroud guy for six bloody months. I’ve been all in on the Stroud train. Then I heard about the S2 score Bryce boasted and started digging into what this thing is all about. It REALLY warmed me up on Young but still felt I slightly preferred CJ Stroud, but only marginally.

Now here is where my post gets controversial. I have a horrific comparison for Stroud following his scores today… Sounds like a potential Sam Darnold. Now I’m not saying heIS Darnold but Sam was also considered an elite top 3 prospect entering the draft. He could make all the throws, big body, could move fluidly… all the physical markers suggested he could be an elite QB prospect. 
 

His problem is between his ears as has been said here for two years. But he’s also a very intelligent guy. He’s really smart. He’s football smart. So why is he a bad QB?

Perhaps the one thing Sam struggles with is quickly reading a defense and processing that information. This leads to numerous mistakes because he doesn’t have enough time in the pocket to proves what he’s seeing before the pressure gets to him.

So while I’m not saying CJ is going to be on the level of Darnold at all, I think this may be the concern and a legitimate one. Maybe CJ has all the tools and a brilliant football mind but just isn’t capable of processing that information in under 2 and a half seconds. Maybe that’s Darnold and many other QBs issue. Maybe Brady fell so far because he didn’t check many boxes but could process information at lightening speed and that’s something they weren’t testing back when he was entering the draft.

Its an interesting thought for sure.

2 minutes ago, rmoneyg35 said:

It’s funny how people thinking the S2 and wonderlic are the same.

Yep. That’s clearly what’s happening but they are ENTIRELY different tests and once you understand what S2 is actually testing, it’s easy to see why it’s a much better metric to use. Its night and day. 

Just now, Hoenheim said:

I feel like we really need more context for these numbers. Like the scores for several current and past QBs in the NFL. 

PFF has an hour long podcast with one of the creators of the S2 on their podcast. You’ll get plenty of info regarding this if you want it along with the types of tests they you (7 in the S2) and how it translates on the field (each test within the S2 is testing different traits) 

1 hour ago, pantherj said:

Joe Burrow scored  97%. Young 1% better. Nice. Our next QB is going to be smart at least.

It’s not really about being smart. It’s about how fast you can process information. 

2 minutes ago, CPF4LIFE said:

So he wants to be a celebrity before a Top NFL QB

Can we knock this BS off already? 

10 minutes ago, Fright said:

I recall seeing that you preferred Stroud a while back... will you be as excited if we draft Young and he stinks? 

I don’t think anyone is going to be excited if our new QB flat out stinks especially considering the assets we have parted with to get him. That said, I personally am a big believer in this staff and their ability to evaluate so I’m fine with Stroud, Young or Richardson. The optimism is in full swing currently for me personally.

34 minutes ago, Tr3ach said:

I like the idea of it and its going to be more efficient i suppose but a lot more can go wrong on a 20 play drive than a 5 or 6 play drive.  One or two negative plays can throw the whole drive off.

This is true. But with that said, how many times in the last 10 years have we blown late leads simply because our offense was built for home run swings? There’s been so many instances where we needed to pick up one first down to seal the game, we go three out out and lose to a last second FG.

I know every team suffers this, but I think being able to sustain drives balances out the issue you correctly bring up.

33 minutes ago, Lame Duck said:

It will be run heavy with a lot of quick passes.  Won’t be anything sexy but will get the job done

I’ve always been a fan of the death by a million paper cuts approach. We don’t need 50 yards a clip. Let your defense rest awhile before you punch it in.

“I don’t know much about building a football team but I DO know the importance of having a good starting center. We are taking John Michael Schmitz with our first pick!”

20 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

They say he should be ready to go by August, but those Achilles injuries take a year to fully recover.

I tore mine years ago and didn’t have the tools he will have and was running again in about 9 months, so maybe he will be ready. That said, I was running with it heavy on my mind and not pushing myself. I can’t imagine playing football 9-12 months after. I don’t know how they do it.

6 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

After Gonzalez & Witherspoon, it's hard to see Banks or Porter falling far. 

So at 39, we're talking:

Kelee Ringo, Julius Brents, Tyrique Stevenson, Cam Smith, DJ Turner

I think Ringo & Brents translate and are my fave candidates.  (Big Brents fan)  Smith & Stevenson may not be as ready, Turner is like Forbes/a bit on the light side so could get pushed around.  

 

I’m a big fan of Ringo, Brents and Smith.

My preferences at #39 have changed on a near daily basis but have been between the same three positions.

OG, CB, Edge. I do thinks starting caliber MLB would be warranted here as well but I would put that below the other three and if Dalton Kincaid were to somehow fall to us then I would sprint to the podium like the 40 yard dash to take him.

But with all that said, I think CB probably is our biggest need at 39 and with this draft being loaded with CB talent I think we could get s long time starter there. So I would be very happy with CB at 39 and think it fills an immediate need and a need going forward when we let Jackson, Henderson etc walk

44 minutes ago, shaqattaq said:

FYI, here's the list of FA's:

Hunt, McKissic or Mack would all be solid additions 

Just now, JawnyBlaze said:

Ok, lemme rephrase, accepting their “grades” as definitive evaluations is pure trash. They try to push their grades while not knowing the context of what they’re evaluating in many cases. Can they accurately assess the difference between a drop and an uncatchable ball? Probably more often than not. Can they accurately assess what a QB’s reads were within the scope of the play that was called and whether they made the right decision?  No chance. Can they accurately assess if an OL got overpowered by a DL? Sure. Can they assess whether the OL missed his assignment or whether it was his neighbor’s responsibility? Not often. 

I agree with this, but I find them pretty insightful in certain metrics that other things just don’t really key in on. And I think they push their narrative on their grades because they are a business. 
 

Certainly PFF isn’t gospel, but I really like using it. Like everything else, it has its own flaws but I have learned a lot about players from it. I definitely don’t think it’s trash. But you have to do what you just did in your response. But things into context and use it for what it can identify. Your QB example might be better defined in a S2 score. But the S2 can’t identify dropped catchable balls like PFF can. You just have to use what it provided useful information in and not the things it doesn’t do well. 

1 hour ago, JawnyBlaze said:

I don’t like QBR either but it’s better than PFF, PFF is straight trash. Only good for looking up concrete stats that aren’t subject to their “interpretation”. 

Well this is objectively nonsense. PFF is a very valuable tool in assessing players, but it’s only one piece just like any other metric. The problem is people seem to think PFF suggests who the best players are definitively and thus toss it out when it doesn’t make obvious sense.

The 40 yard dash isn’t pure trash but you also don’t use that as the only metric to evaluate a CB or WR. 
 

The S2 isn’t pure trash but you also don’t use that as the only metric to evaluate a MLB or a SS.

PFF isn’t pure trash, but like every other metric, you aren’t using it as your end all metric to evaluate players. It’s a piece of the puzzle that is a valuable tool when used alongside all the other metrics. 

7 minutes ago, poundaway said:

We gave up DJ Moore,  the  2nd rounder that we got for CMC, plus a 2024 1st and the 2025 2nd for this one pick.  DJ and CMC for a QB with a reasonable chance to bust.  It is unlikely that Young, Stroud and Richardson will all be franchise. 

I agree. Like I said, initially I didn’t like the trade. I’m always one very hesitant to give up resources for any individual player. But we were always going to move up for a QB this year. That was expected. So to move up and have the opportunity to pick out the one we like best for what we gave up, I’m happy with it.

Like compare it to what the Browns gave up for Watson. Or compare it to the farm that was sold for RG3. 
 

Giving up tons of assets to move in for a player is never fun for me. I feel like my friends that are much more casual get really excited over these kinds of deals while I’m typically in agony. But like I said we were always going to give up assets to move up. This was just expected. So to get our choice of all the prospects for what we parted with, I feel we ultimately did well in terms of value