Newtcase

JC and DJ going at it is fun to watch.

8 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

So, there was context, and I even gave room for arguments against Bryce that would potentially lead to that low INT% in his small ball approach and lack of downfield throws. I didn't even say he was objectively good at it, In fact my direct quote was "protecting the ball from INTs was one of the few things that Bryce was halfway decent at last season (Fumbles, another story)". Since I said it was one of the few things he did well, it could be implied that he did many more things downright bad based on my wording. My point was that Bryce could be criticized for 9/10 categories, but picking that specific argument as a point of criticism was not the right one.

There was nothing about my argument that was brought in bad faith. It was, a very specific stat to directly speak on one specific criticism against Bryce. At no point was I saying I like Bryce or that he will in fact be good. Bringing up bad throw % and turnover worthy plays are fair arguments to bring up in the discussion, and I welcome those numbers and insights because I'm a data nerd, however I did not have access to those stats.

 

 

Yeah, I replied to your first post and eventually caught your additional replies later after I had already posted this.  Cheers

1 hour ago, Navy_football said:

some folk will find fault in everything Bryce does. If he passes for 4000 yards and 30 TDs, it'll be because of all they invested to help him - even though this is really still a below average roster. It is what it is. 

I have no issue getting behind Bryce when he deserves it.  Here's one of my posts after the Green Bay game last year.

1 hour ago, ForJimmy said:

I have been wrong more than not, but I feel like Bryce will look better this year and the new argument will be is he good enough.  Some people will have some crazy standards like he must be a top 5 QB right now because of what we gave up and some will have too low of standards like he was better than last year (even if it's marginal).  A nonstop vicious cycle of Bryce this and Bryce that....

Well to be fair those are just the arguments that normal fanbases have unless you clearly have an answer at the position.  

3 hours ago, Ricky Spanish said:

I gave a statistic, cut and dry, that Bryce threw fewer picks %-wise than the league average.

Cherry picking one statistic to support your argument without context isn't good faith debate.

For example, I could cherry pick bad throw %, of which Bryce was the worst in the league by a mile at 21.5%.  But that would lack the context of pressure, wr quality, play calling, quality of opponent and many other context pieces that may help explain why he threw so many poor passes.

Cherry picking interception percentage ignores how lucky he may have been with dropped interceptions, which was quite lucky by the way.  It was almost extraordinary how many interceptions he threw that were between the numbers and dropped.  It also ignores weather, injuries, quality of opponent, hell maybe the receiver fell or didn't fall for another guy.  The point being a single stat in a vacuum does nothing but make your argument look feeble.  

Look I get it, you like Bryce or at least you're a glass half full guy.  Anyone else with a shred of doubt is a hater or cynic, always dismissing the possibility that we're just Panthers fans commenting on what we've observed.  I would be thrilled for Bryce to blow up and make us relevant this year.  I wouldn't give one single shitz about the crowd in here that would rush to tell me how wrong I was.  I'm capable of observing what's happened and judging just that.  I want to see quality football.  I linger on this board all day because I'm obsessed with the Panthers not because I'm obsessed with shitting on Bryce.

13 minutes ago, Newtcase said:

2021/2022 - Rhule holds the bag for this era.  Next up is Fitts.  Most argued both should have been fired here.  A carousel of washed QBs ending with a bonanza shitshow fire sale that wasn't actually a fire sale tainted the future as well.  Maybe if we had committed and shipped Burns for two firsts our whole story might be different right now.

**In this space team management actually believed removing CMC and DJ Moore, while keeping Burns was the right move** MY GOD

Quote

2023 - After being allowed to pick both his coach and QB Fitts shitz the bed in the most magnificent way finally creating the first "clean the house" situation.  Fitts and Reich both bite the dust along with many staff.  But maybe, just maybe, the problem was Bryce.

1 hour ago, Waldo said:

Moore was fine. The 'he isn't a #1' people were fools. His pay to play was great. That trade was epically stupid from every angle.

Burns was always more hype then anything else. Solid but that's the type of guy you trade before year 4 and try again. Replaceable...if the people running the team didn't waste the draft capital and cap space. 

CMC was a tough situation. Good player but the owner already fugged up and kept Rhule for year 3 which should never have happened. Selling CMC so the next crew could use that draft capital to try and fix the roster issues that showed up under Rhule isn't a bad idea. The bad idea was keeping Fritterers and letting him waste that draft capital and cap space. 

Moore was terrible, Burns was fine but they should have sold much sooner and CMC was damage control in the fallout of an owner that doesn't understand how to manage a game he doesn't know much about. 

Once again your points are spot on, very well written.  I'd like to expand your post if I may.  Under Tepper the concert of moves has been such that there has always been more than one possibility for the biggest failure.

2019 - Rivera caught the heat and lost his job.  A shadow form of Cam and/or Hurney could have been more to blame.  Tepper probably just wanted to get his guy anyway.

2020 - Hurn dog eats it this year even though Rhule and the beginning of QB purgatory could have more to blame.  Tepper probably wanted his own GM as well though.  Although this was a raw deal for Fitts as he inherits Rhule.

2021/2022 - Rhule holds the bag for this era.  Next up is Fitts.  Most argued both should have been fired here.  A carousel of washed QBs ending with a bonanza shitshow fire sale that wasn't actually a fire sale tainted the future as well.  Maybe if we had committed and shipped Burns for two firsts our whole story might be different right now.

2023 - After being allowed to pick both his coach and QB Fitts shitz the bed in the most magnificent way finally creating the first "clean the house" situation.  Fitts and Reich both bite the dust along with many staff.  But maybe, just maybe, the problem was Bryce.

2024 - Our "full reset" is actually more like a soft reset since Morgan's qualifications are questionable at best and a complete Fitts understudy at worst.  We still have Bryce and that still brings plenty of questions.  We added a complete unknown quantity at coach as well.  So if, or should I say...when the Panthers stink it up again in 2024 where is the blame going to land?  Bryce, Morgan, Canales?  Take your pick!  The beauty of Tepper's management style is you can never truly isolate the problem.

EDIT: Any combination of the above can be true at the same time.

I think it's all a nothing burger.  Dallas scored the most points in the NFL last season.  Unless the Cowboys know something the rest of the league doesn't, I can't see them letting him walk.  

1 hour ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Meh.  I think people feel that way only because its been done that way in the past. IMO, preseason is immensely important for the second/third/fourth stringers, but for the known starters, I doubt it really matters much.  I know that most of you are probably thinking of Bryce, but the reality is that the 15 or so passes he would have made in preseason are highly unlikely to make any difference in his performance this year.  

What's the threshold for the amount reps that you think would make a difference?  Whatever number you come up with is how many he should get IMO.  Bryce was terrible last season, he should be out there earning his keep just like anyone else on the team who is being dismissed as a bum or camp fodder.

20 minutes ago, Waldo said:

He actively avoided it by looking for #3s that would have trouble making a PS. The QB whisperer. Who just reinvented the 3 game preseason approach. 

People want to give this guy a high pick at QB next year and all I keep thinking is we will have another 2nd year QB with another rookie HC in 2 years. 

I think you are spot on.  I don't even know where this QB whisperer garbage came from.  Baker statistically was on par with his early Cleveland production last year and only threw for 147 yards in 9-0 win against us with the division and playoffs on the line.  Not making a statement on Canales other than I don't think his resume is head coach quality.  Doesn't mean he won't be, to me it just means it's yet another gamble.

5 minutes ago, Waldo said:

The 49ers spent a load on Lance and then took Purdy the next year. That's how you walk away from an expensive failure in the NFL. They didn't give up and waste years on Lance, they went out the next year and took a guy in the 7th while Lance was having noticeable issues. They were not afraid to take a flyer or play the better guy regardless of draft capital wasted. That's a team that wants to win. 

We'd have to accidentally get trapped into a situation like this.  Canales has already told us there is no QB competition in Carolina.  Imagine not having to compete for the job of "NFL QB", it's really insane if you think about it.

Who brought their kid to work?

1 hour ago, Castavar said:

It's not even about getting in people's faces, but rather DEMANDING perfection. You don't have to act all big and bad. Yes, he is small, but Drew Brees had no problem chewing people out for not being in the right spot, or for lackluster play, or missing assignments on offense, etc. He would cuss your ass out even though all of them could whoop his ass. There's all kinds of ways to be a leader. You can even fake it like Russell Wilson did. But nobody is going to go to war with you if they look over at their QB1 and he's just going with the flow, sitting back and not being vocal.

Jordan in the last dance....whew...they won titles though!

Our defense looking strong.

Our defense is practicing against our offense.

Our offense is running gassers.

25 minutes ago, thennek said:

If Tepper continues to meddle the Panthers will continue to make stupid decisions and continue to be a losing franchise. There have been so many bad decisions made the past 6 years it is really hard to remember all of them.  I really hope Morgan stands up to Tepper.  How they are handling Young right now makes me wonder if Tepper is really letting his football people make decisions.  When Frank was here for a very brief period, he said Tepper was very involved.  

I think Canales is here on a BY9 mandate.  Saying there is no QB competition seems out of place for a first year head coach given how bad the team was last year.  Dan and Dave have both said on every occasion they want competition up and down the roster.  I can't think of any reason he would handcuff himself to Bryce unless he agreed to it for the job.

10 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

The bar is literally on the ground and we’re talking about someone who is supposed to be a franchise QB here 

what’re we even doing 

The Bucs beat us twice last year by a combined 12 points including one of the ugliest games of the year, the 9-0 finale where Baker threw for 137 yards with the division crown and playoffs on the line.  Canales is a huge question mark as well.

1 hour ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

He's just a 6'5 body.  He really didn't show anything that would make you want to even stash him on the PS.

Just a bigger Bryce without the sunk cost.

20 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

7 first downs and 3 points was expected? 

That'd be a half decent opening drive.

Actual future photo of Dave Canales sent from week 5.

2 minutes ago, MasterAwesome said:

I just am shocked we're going down this road where we're walking back everything we saw with our own two eyes last year and trying to delude ourselves into thinking maybe our receivers, o-line, playcalling, coaching staff, etc. were not so bad and it was all Bryce's fault.  Just to clarify, is it really your position that we actually had a talented roster and coaching staff (particularly on the offensive side) that were all held back by Bryce?  Or am I misunderstanding?  Cause to me, that's a much harder position to defend than what the "Bryce cope" squad is saying, which is that Bryce was surely part of the problem but our team was an absolute shitshow that made it hard to properly apportion how much blame falls on his shoulders.  I truly don't understand why that is such an unreasonable position.

By no means am I arguing that it's all Bryce, but I would argue that he made us WORSE by a wide margin.

Comparatively, I think most would agree that the Jets expectations fell off a cliff when Rodgers was replaced by Wilson after one series.  The betting odds certainly did.  Competent QB play changes everything.

Believe it or not, I'm not rooting for the kid to fail.  I'd be thrilled to be wrong and it certainly wouldn't be the first time.  My opinions are based off what has happened, not what might happen.  I'm always open to include new information and shift my opinion as appropriate.  I don't have to fit in neat predefined boxes built by insecure huddlers that demand loyalty in the face of disaster.

6 minutes ago, Icege said:

 

By the very definition, your attempt to exclusively focus on protection is a strawman.

As stated already, the combination of bad protection, lack of separation, poor play design, and poor play calling made life even more difficult for a rookie QB. Nobody could have performed well under those conditions. You're picking strictly one part of that and pointing out that a x3 SB champ and 8yr vet were pressured a similar amount of times played better. You're doing this because think that you can easily defeat that when the actual argument is ALL of those factors made success impossible for any QB. Not just one factor.

tldr; nobody has said Bryce played bad just because of the bad protection so your attempt to focus solely on that when comparing a rookie to a x3 SB champ + 8yr vet is a strawman fallacy.

What you see as cause I see as effect.  Soon it will be undeniable to all.

19 minutes ago, Icege said:

You stated, "if Bryce sustained more drives," as if he was doing this alone. Again, how is a QB supposed to operate when he's being pressured on nearly 25% of his passing attempts and all of his targets save for Adam Thielen have a lower separation average than the league's?

I want to address this metric as well.

Things like pressures, hits and sacks are cold hard facts.  No nuisance at all.

But WR separation charts....hmmm...tell me more.  I have questions.

Is the amount of separation measured for each pass at the moment the ball arrives to intended receiver?  If it is how do we know the pass didn't affect the seperation?  I.E. thowing someone open vs a receiver needing to slow down for an underthrown pass, thus allowing a defender to catch up?  We certainly saw plenty of this and it's certainly a demarcation point for good vs bad QBs.

Maybe the amount of separation is for every receiver on every play.  If it is at what point is it measured?  How does the statistic recorder know where the route is supposed to create separation?

Does it account for other receivers that may have been wide open or just the one the pass went to?

Please explain to me these from your chart.

5 minutes ago, Icege said:

It is the very definition of a strawman argument because you're attempting to take a rookie QB that had no protection, receivers that could not separate, bad play calling, and bad play design and compare him to a x3 Super Bowl champion and a QB that has been in the league since 2016.

Dude, you're clowning right?  Otherwise you have no idea what a strawman actually is.  Let me spell it out for you.

Did Mahommes perform well under pressure? Yes or No (Support with direct evidence)

Did Goff perform well under pressure?  Yes or No (Support with direct evidence)

Did Bryce perform well under pressure?  Yes or No (Support with direct evidence)

Answers....Yes, Yes, No.

Once you start arguing outside of the evidence you are presenting a strawman argument.  Now if you want to present a new argument about comparing experience or WR separation by all means make that argument.  But this argument is simply that two QBs performed much better under similar pressure.