Growl

without really getting into the weeds on Leggette, the argument that they JUST drafted a H/W/S guy and thus don’t need another one is pretty bad

6 hours ago, top dawg said:

Is it? Where is your evidence? 

Honestly, the hit rate doesn't look great from the first round.

 

In order to try and get the most up-to-date info, I chose an IDP website. Sure it's fantasy football and he speaks in those terms, but most of the time there is a correlation between production in fantasy football and the NFL.

 

"But how do we definite a hit? I must admit, I scrutinize my hits pretty rigorously. Going back to 2018, there are some obvious hits like Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, Shaquille Leonard, Devin White, and Brian Burns. While it’s difficult to set a standard across the board—especially when dealing with players drafted in 2022—most of the players I counted as hits either finished a season as a top 30 player at their position or they have shown enough potential early on to inspire optimism.

"Conversely, if we’re defining a hit, we also have to define a miss. Calling someone a “miss” at this point doesn’t mean their careers are over. It just means they’re either trending down or aren’t trustworthy in our lineups (or on our rosters) right now. We already mentioned Harry, but think about Johnathan Abram, Jalen Reagor,  Jerry Jeudy, Isaiah Simmons, and Tua Tagovailoa. We haven’t lost all hope for these players, but we’re not as excited now as we were when we first took these guys.

"This is not an exact science. I might call someone a hit now which we later see as a miss and vice versa. But I think this is a helpful exercise as we approach draft season, one that I’ve always wanted to do. So that’s what we’re going to do! Below, I’ll go through the history of our main league’s rookie draft dating back to 2018. We’ll see how many players were selected, in which rounds, and how many were hits."

Now, I will admit that this dude's definition of "hit" is tough (top 30 at their position), but you get an idea.  Being that we're talking basically about pass rushers, here are those numbers:

 

Defensive End

10/29, hit rate of 34%

3/10 were 1st-round picks

Just 10 good defensive ends drafted in the last 5 years—that’s crazy!  Yes, the hit percentage is high but that’s in part because so few DEs were selected. One reason for the low total is that RSO (our league provider) labels a lot of edge rushers as LBs coming out of college. But it also shows that we’re not as willing to take swings on guys like Drake Jackson and George Karlaftis. This position is hard to play and it takes time for young guys to develop, so I’m sure if we revisited this article in 5 years, the hit rate would be different. But early on, good luck finding the next Maxx Crosby.

 

Linebacker
14/44, hit rate of 31.8%

0/14 were 1st-round picks

4/14 were 3rd-round picks

We all love linebackers and we all love the rookie draft. But is it safe to mix those two loves? Well, at least not in the first round. If I’m going to grab an LB in the rookie draft, I’m going to wait. We’ve seen guys like Leonard and White get snatched up in the middle rounds and return massive value. The same can’t be said for guys like Devin Bush. But at least if you take a later swing, it doesn’t hurt you as much if it doesn’t work out. And while the hit rate is similar to WR, the LB landscape changes so much year to year that I’m tempted to source my LBs off waivers instead.

 

And, here are his general numbers.

 

1st Round: 34/60, hit rate of 56%

2nd Round: 20/60, hit rate of 33.3%

3rd Round: 12/60, hit rate of 20%

4th Round: 17/60, hit rate of 28.3%

5th Round: 9/60, hit rate of 15%

 

https://www.theidpshow.com/p/examining-the-rookie-hit-rate-2018

So, I'd say that if you know what you're doing (and maybe lucky), then it's quite possible to get an EDGE worth a damn at 33 (and 39, really) as compared to getting one in the first. Sure, it's easier in the first, but it's fairly easy to screw it up also.

I mean i thought it was pretty clear from the verbiage I used that I wasn’t laying down hard science but, as you have noted “top 30 at position” seems like a pretty loose definition of success, as does someone’s mere presence on an nfl roster 

I'm not the type to overrate later picks needing to be stars but I’d define a late first/early second rounder as someone I really want to be a real quality starter

13 minutes ago, rayzor said:

This class is abnormally deep in a lot of positions. Guys that would be first rounders in most other years will be slipping to 2nd or even third rounds.

And I'm not going to base what we do this year on what we've typically done, because we aren't doing really anything typically so far with Morgan running it.

I wasn’t talking about us. 

the hit ratio on these high second (and late first) edge types feels like it’s awful, I’ve become really leery of it 

2 minutes ago, DeSim said:

This

the guys 25-40 are generally all really similar, having two picks in that range isn’t too bad and the team is in a position where they are going to have to make up ground on this rebuild, so I probably wouldn’t implode if they turned it down.

but an extra 1 to bandage the 2 were missing next season is probably more value 

in any case I don’t think anyone is actually offering a future 1 for anybody in this class 

With 39 in hand a future 1 would be hard to turn down 

3 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

 

That’s great but until it’s more commonplace then you’re gonna have a latent advantage for teams that tamper illegally versus teams that don’t. “Legal tampering wasn’t designed to combat tampering, it was acknowledging that you couldn’t fight it and you were forcing the idea of a fair opportunity 

also I think staying home isn’t quite the same.

the “legal tampering” period is pointless.

it was said on the radio that the panthers reached out to Luvu after the burns trade but were told “he had already agreed to a deal.”

No, he hadn’t. The contract wasn’t signed. But these handshake agreements these teams are reaching with players are seemingly ironclad, and I cannot recall an example of a player agreeing to sign somewhere before being approached with a better deal and reneging on the deal in hand.

i get it, principally, if you agree to do something, it is honorable to do it. But it has completely defeated the point of the “legal tampering” window and effectively free agency just starts a little bit earlier than it did before, and the same teams that were cheating before are cheating now.

a proper “legal tampering” window should be nice and quiet, with teams negotiating over the course of the window. The news getting out should lead to the concern that your team may get one upped. 

12 minutes ago, WhoKnows said:

I liked that we seemed to be officially tanking

they gave one player a $100 million dollar contract 

13 minutes ago, La Pantera said:

He just had a decent season, given his age tho

He always has decent seasons, he’s just completely destroyed his ability to ever really build a name for himself by being a mercenary determined to maximize his dollar value down to the penny every single offseason

the guy could’ve gone somewhere and really been a franchise icon but he’s been obsessed with squeezing every drop of money he can, and I guess that’s his prerogative to do.

if it were me though, and it isn’t, but if it were, actually embracing a city and being embraced in return and never having to buy my own meal again seems like something worth having 

 he’s a good player.

reminder that the bears wanted Brian burns, could’ve shipped the disgruntled player off then and kept the offensive piece who was already under contract (and loved this team) for your rookie QB

I absolutely theorize that they have some super secret diamond in the rough they’ve discovered that is helping justify these decisions 

also, every other team has discovered this guy and he will go way before the panthers 

I see what they’re doing by transplanting resources from defense to offense, but this doesn’t really feel like the “we’ve got a rookie QB contract” move ala Jalen Ramsey to rams or tyreek hill to dolphins type.

they’re just trying to get to a baseline, interior line is a position you can get great players at early 2nd, and now they’re going to have to take swings at lower % positions in those rounds

they were going to have to take chances because they’ve shipped away so many great players for such little in return, but this isn’t a calculated one. Feels more like they’re trying to make a statement about COMMITTING TO OFFENSE or whatever.

they just spent 100 million dollars on a guard 

lol at anyone that thinks they’re tanking 

I want to see Derrick brown moved to a major media market team in exchange for a 4th and 6th round pick 

we’ve got to continue doing our part to help keep the league’s legacy teams afloat 

Just now, MrBubba said:

Deal is also supposed to include some pick swaps.  But no word on them yet.  

lol we have the top pick in every round, which direction could we possibly go? Did Morgan move down in the 3rd to seal the deal?

Teams know they can come to us to get good players at fire sale prices

Just now, TheSpecialJuan said:

https://x.com/rapsheet/status/1767317310652482011?s=46&t=xeIgh_-Vr2aKxBkBJdfnKA

LOL

3 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

I assume to open up cap space when deals become official on Wednesday and to quickly pivot to the crop of unsigned edge rushers before they get claimed.

doesn’t really sell with me friend. We’re talking about giving up our only remaining pass rusher against an supposed deep crop of bidders. You drive the price up as long as possible. The cap will be fine in the interim. 
 

signing those replacement pass rushers makes you look less desperate to get something done, but here we are again with the team telegraphing that they have to get some thing done. “It doesn’t bother me if this doesn’t happen” is the most empowering position of any negotiation and hedge fund guy had persistently failed to perceive this in the football world 

5 minutes ago, Billy Goat said:

 

“more teams are involved”

then why are we discussing settling, what is the apparent rush to get this done

3 minutes ago, WestPanthers said:

So they refuse to pay the player with dawg and keep Burns? .......We're official tanking....

but wait there’s more 

I’m sure the giants 70th overall pick will replace both him and Burns effectively 

why trade now? why not at the last trade deadline or the upcoming one when teams tend to buy higher?

what fanciful draft night trade have they convinced themselves they’re going to pull off with a couple extra twos that they’re going to get burned on when that “secret” player they think they’ve discovered gets drafted way higher than they’re expecting?

This franchise is honestly a dream come true for the league. How many pro bowlers have we offloaded to the legacy teams for pennies on the dollar?

Derrick Brown is gonna look so good in black and gold. 

1 minute ago, MHS831 said:

The Giants are keeping #6 because they want a QB, imo.

I would push for a second this year and a second next year.

we should throw in brown to sweeten the deal too