fieryprophet

Exactly, sounds hyperbolic and idiotic, doesn't it? That's what reading 80% of this board feels like.

Lost.

Yep, how poor of Bryce to lead this team to a win with a larger margin of victory than the Steelers, Buccaneers, and Broncos. Since so many of you would trade him instantly for Rodgers, Nix or Hurts then how do you explain that? C'mon, bring out the mental gymnastics, clearly the only thing that matters is the QB, everything else is irrelevant right?

We've already established your bonafides are non-existent, so your opinion is meaningless.

He may have literally hurt his Achilles lmao But I am sure you can find something negative out of a road victory against a touch Jets defense. Must be tiresome to live in that headspace.

Our linebackers have played better in recent weeks but any reversion would be lethal because at their worst the middle of this defense becomes a serious problem. Also Mike Jackson has had a rough couple of weeks, we need him to pick it back up. There are no gimmes in the NFL.

They wanted me to move to Cincinnati, I wasn't going to do that. Simple as that.

Well it's always nice to have career options.

Ahh, so you're actually not capable of any developing your metric, coding your own scraping and metric calculation system, and have it automatically publish to your own website on a nightly basis? Well that's just unfortunate.

Great, then you design your own quarterback metric, write your own algorithm for it, scrape years of statistics, code your own website, and post it. Let's see your intelligence at work.

At no point have I "stumped hard" for Bryce. I have simply given clear explanations on why assessing quarterback play is more difficult than looking at simple outcomes because they are intricately tied to numerous factors outside of their control, and that his biggest weakness isn't a lack of physical size but a blind spot in regards to ball security due to an overly aggressive mindset towards play risk/reward ratio. The fact that these elements rub Bryce detractors the wrong way is more a function of their own one-sided perceptions being forced to confront some actual nuance than anything else. If saying the jury is still out on Bryce makes me a "stumper" than that says vastly more about them than it does me.

Here's a 58-yarder if you're down for it:

There's nothing to counter, Dalton's longest attempt over that time period was 48 air yards. No idea where you remember this magical 60 yard throw from.

Well, you've established your bonafides, I've established mine, if you feel they are comparable, then c'est la vie.

You can characterize it however you want, but at each step you are saying "this is what I saw" and what I am providing is actual data. And at no point have I ever characterized Bryce as some deep throwing savant, merely pointing out that the data does not support the idea that he is incapable of attempting and making those kinds of throws. In fact, if we want to get into the analytical weeds, I have my own quarterback metric that I have developed over the years that has a higher correlation with wins than either passer rating or ANYA or ESPN's QBR, and it places Bryce as the 25th rated QB in all of football. If I was biased in any way I'd try to massage the formula to make him look better but the reality is that his lows have greatly weighed on his overall average even this season and he absolutely needs to continue to improve to give this team a chance at future championships. If you want to dive into the data yourself check out https://qba.info

Dalton has had 3 throws of 40+ air yards since 2023: he's 0-3 (0%) with 1 INT

That falls entirely into the chicken-and-egg of why is he not attempting those throws more frequently: is it because he can't make those throws, or because he isn't asked to make those throws? If the latter, is he not being asked to make those throws because the coaching staff doesn't believe he can be successful with them, or because they don't believe those types of throws fit their scheme anyways? We can eliminate option A because he clearly can physically push the ball 40+ yards, successfully or not, or there would be zero attempts of that nature. We have no way of determining which of the two factors are the reason for option B because we don't know what the coaching staff's ultimate assessment of both his abilities and of their own conviction about the value of those throws irregardless of player would be. Again, you will be hard-pressed to find many coaches that will value a play that has an 83% or higher failure rate just to "keep the defense honest" when they have more valuable and consistent options at their disposal. But the core of my argument is that it's not like it's an impossibility for Bryce to push the ball downfield, it's simply that it's not the amazing cure-all that some seem to imagine it to be even for elite QBs.

This "noodle arm" characterization just baffles me. There's way more involved in a successful downfield passing attack than simple air yards. Let's take two stat-lines for throws of 40+ air yards (no YAC) from the last 3 seasons: 5/29 (17%) for 3 TDs and 2 INTs 1/9 (11%) for 1 TD So with three times the number of attempts, you net +6% completion percentage, the same TD rate, and 2 arm punt INTs to boot. The first player is Mahomes, the second is Bryce. Clearly Bryce attempts these throws at a much lower rate, but his success rate is quite similar to one of the most talented downfield throwers of all time. The takeaway isn't that Bryce is Mahomes-lite (if he was his usage rate for these would be much higher) but that these throws by their very nature are extremely difficult, very scheme-specific, and even an elite thrower can have wildly differing success rates season by season. And before we get into the complaints of cherry-picking, this is far more substantial information than the various insinuations that Bryce struggles to even get the ball 20 yards downfield, much less 40+. And the wildest part of this is that every time Mahomes threw a bomb over the last 3 season, 83% of the time the end result was failure, yet many Chiefs fans complain that he isn't taking even more shots downfield.

The CBA changes to offseason rules regarding live contact, practice time limits, etc. over the last decade cannot be overstated on its impact for younger players in particular. The players union is heavily weighted towards the interests of veteran players, who are concerned with staying healthy and on the field, compared to rookies and bubble players who need more development time and live-fire experience, but that has been bargained out over the years. Not saying that absolves Canales of this team's clear tendency to show up unprepared for the start of seasons but it does mean the entire coaching staff gets less to work with to mitigate it (which should have meant adjusting by more reps in the preseason for the starters at least.)

I have never understood how the labels negotiated the kinds of deals they did for the paltry rates that Spotify pays until it became obvious that they were getting the lion's share of the revenue and the actual artists couldn't do anything about it.

Making millions in the coaching/analysis side of football is a lot like making it as a band in the Spotify era, you need a hell of a lot of luck and to know a lot of the right people. I know way too many excellent assistant coaches who live week to week barely supporting their families even for big-name programs at the college or pro level. While I enjoyed my time involved in it, it got old fast, the crunch is real, and I moved on to less demanding and more profitable fields.

No, when I said rage, I meant rage, which only applies to certain fans on this board. Your timeline of trying to assess whether he is the future or not is really tied to the discussions surrounding his second contract. If this team is going to commit to some monster contract while he has shown nothing but glimpses of brilliance would be deservedly worrisome, so the clock is genuinely ticking for him to settle into something resembling his final form. Perhaps a best case scenario is that he plays well, the team succeeds, but he does so with a more limited role that makes the rest of the league view him as a game manager, and his second contract value reflects that. Then he continues to improve and becomes a bargain comparatively while not handicapping the team around him, and we enter an era of consistent championship competitiveness that the fanbase has craved for decades and has never really experienced before. But that requires many, many things to go right and for Bryce himself to facilitate that if he ends up being the quarterback of the future.

There's a reason Greg Maddux was never a flamethrower but still one of the most feared pitchers of all time, because accuracy beats velocity far more often then vice versa. Once you exceed a certain minimum capability, you can thrive with extreme traits elsewhere, its not strictly about power in any sport but powerlifting.

The majority of the velocity on a throw is based around a player's core, so developing "arm" strength is really a function of developing one's ability to rotate the entire body, accentuate the transfer of weight over the hips, and apply that momentum to generate force on the ball. All of these things alter the placement of the ball and accuracy without thousands of reps to realign to the new mechanics. The hope then with young quarterbacks is that they simply grow into their bodies and that experience allows them to optimize their natural mechanics to eliminate wasted motion and with repetition expand both their power and accuracy.

Even a player that bounces around repeatedly with no success might suddenly stumble into a situation perfectly tailored for them. Think Kurt Warner and how as long as he was on teams that thrived with his timing-based, quick throwing traits, he was able to play well, but outside of that context he was marginal. So even on the same team, once the schemes diverged from his strengths his performance fell off as well. The question then becomes is that a failing of his due to having only a specific skillset, or a failing of the teams for not properly utilizing his unique traits to allow him and by proxy the rest of the team to thrive?