CPantherKing

I expect an average rookie QB to bring 20-25% GWD, 60% COMP, and 2.5% TO (This is not enough for a SB championship level QB). Darnold is 12.8% GWD, 59.7% COMP, and 3.5% TO. There are other measurements that are not typical stats and Darnold doesn't make the cut on any of them. 5 years (55 games) of proving you can't do the job is enough. Give someone else a chance to show if they can get the job done.

Highest success rate on what? Receiving the most franchise opportunities in the NFL? I agree that 1st round picks are gifted the most opportunities.

Weak QB class at the top in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. Too many overrated QBs. Everyone dreams that a 1st round pick is the answer. Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Murray, Jones, Hasksins, Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert, Love, Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones, and Pickett. Now, Stroud, Young, Levis, and Richardson? And 14 of 29 QBs with records of .500 or better in 2022 are not 1st round QBs. Only 3 1st round QBs were among the top 11 winningest QBs in 2022. Meanwhile, everyone wants to scramble for a bunch of 1st round overrated QBs when Purdy, Zappe, Rush, Howell, Hurts, Heinicke, Cousins, Rypien, Huntley, Thompson, Ridder, Garoppolo, Smith, Prescott, and Brady are winning at the NFL level in 2022. (82-39-1) 67.8% winning percentage. (18-8-1) 69.2% winning for 7th round to undrafted. (118-69-1) 63.1% winning percentage for 1st round QBs who had success in 2022. Seems like people need to wake up and stop wasting time on these 1st round below average QBs with huge expectations and give these other QBs outside the 1st round the opportunities to prove they are all just rare occurrences in the NFL. How many more of these QBs capable of winning in the NFL are sitting on the sidelines because of these terrible 1st round QBs getting 5 seasons to prove just how bad they are at the NFL level? Too many people would rather want a 1st round QB than they would want a QB who can actually win in the NFL.

First time SB winning QBs typically have 2 to 3 playoff seasons with 1 win at most before they win the SB. Playoff experience from the HC, OC, and QBC are more important than the QB. GWD and opening/4/2/1 minute drives are more important for a QB. Here are the records of the last 10 SB Champion QBs prior to their SB playoff run: 0-3; 0-0; 1-1; 0-1; 0-3; 1-1; 5-4; 0-2; 0-1; 1-2 1 QB had no prior playoff XP 4 QBs had 1 season of playoff XP 2 QBs had 2 seasons of playoff XP 2 QBs had 3 seasons of playoff XP The record for these 9 SB champion QBs before their SB run is 3-14 The single QB with the most playoff XP and the only winning playoff QB had 4 seasons of playoff XP Care to take a guess at who this successful QB is? So, all I want from a QB who is ready and able to win the SB is 1 to 2 playoff appearances.

QBs have never been too old. SB winning QBs average age when they first win the SB is 29. 3 of the first 4 QBs were in their 30s. The last QB to win a SB was in his 30s. Starr(2), Plunkett(2), Montana(2), Elway(2), Bradshaw(2), P. Manning(2), Simms(2) and Brady(4) have led teams in multiple SB seasons at 30+. Unitas won a SB at 37. 60% of SBs have been won by QBs who are 29 or older. Only 10 SBs have been won by a 1st round QB under the age of 30 for the team/coach that drafted them. 10 QBs that were 35 years or older have led their team to a SB winning season.

Yes, they do. Every year it is about how these college QBs are going to be the one to dominate the NFL like Tom Brady, Brock Purdy, and Jalen Hurts. All these 1st round QBs that are the best of the best. I have had QBs make my board, but not every year. The last 5 1st round QBs that made my board with my algo are Patrick Mahomes 2017, Andrew Luck 2012, Aaron Rodgers 2005, Eli Manning 2004, and Peyton Manning 1998. Averaging one 1st round QB every 5 years. The next QB I am expecting to make it on my board as a 1st round value is Arch Manning 2027. Looking for that Mahomes or Rodgers QB to sneak up on me this decade. I believe it is better to miss on a Roethlisberger and hit more often on 1st round QBs every 5 years than it is to hit on a Roethlisberger with the chance of wasting the years of a franchise on a Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, Bortles, Russell, Goff, Wentz, or Bradford every 2 to 3 years. I know 85% of all QBs who are invested in for 2 years as a franchise QB make it to the playoffs. Round does not matter (6th round to undrafted QBs do edge out 1st rounders). You can load up on undrafted QBs and get to the playoffs. I also know that 7.6% of 1st round QBs win for the coach/team that gives them their first franchise QB opportunity. 6th round to undrafted QBs win a SB for the coach/team that gives them their 1st opportunity at 5.8%. So, is a 1.8% increased chance worth the draft capital of a 1st round draft pick? The cost of the first pick in the 6th round is 20 points. The cost of the last pick in the 1st round is 600 points. Defensive players have a better return on value with the 1st round pick for building a SB champion. How much is wasted with a 1st round pick that costs 1500 to 3000 points in draft capital for a 1.8% increase? As for Richardson and Levis, both are out of their league against the top 20 QBs in the NFL, and they will easily be replaced by other QBs that will get an opportunity from past drafts and future drafts. Levis will wow everyone with his accuracy and decision making. He is a great 7 on 7/combine QB. He is average in the clutch/situational football and toughness. His athletic ability in the pocket is poor. He sets and becomes a tree with very predictable pocket movement for edge rushers. If he starts to move out of the pocket he stops looking down field to pass and becomes a RB who will not pass. He rates poorly at moving the safeties. Then you factor in that he is a 3.1% TO QB (Darnold level). Levis will not be on my draft board.

You keep believing that and continue to gaslight everyone. That is always a possibility. There is a big difference between a 54% passer and a 58% passer in football. Comp% for a college QB? I'd want to see them trending up. Posting 60% to 70% in at least 2 seasons with an upward trend is going to be a green light regardless of average. If that 58% average is potential and they transfer that to the NFL, it would put them in the 84th to 92nd percentile of NFL QB decision makers. Stafford, Brady, and Wilson are the last 3 SB champion QBs who have been in this range. I'd be looking for a coachable QB with improved decision making and the ability to make their receivers and the coaching staff better. They would have a pattern from low to high of 45 - 55 - 60 - 62 - 64 - 65. So, 58 is average. Trending up is potential. And I would expect that QB to level off around 63-65% in the NFL. If they are coming from a vertical system while trailing in a high % of games, they would get an even bigger bump in potential. If they are in a horizontal system with high percentage routes and playing with leads, they would be given a neutral to declining status. You want QBs with potential and little to no volatility coming out of college. Richardson is a highly volatile and limited passer that would be some where in the 56 to 58 range at the NFL level. I'd expect him to remain at the bottom of the NFL if he were to be a starter. I'd expect Richardson to fall in the 30th to 49th percentile on the NFL level. Dilfer, Elway and Rypien were the last 3 SB champion QBs in this range. You can win a SB with any NFL QB when it comes to decision making (Doug Williams, Joe Namath, Jim Plunkett, and Terry Bradshaw among the worst in the NFL - 8 SBs among them). This is just decision making. There are other factors that layer over decision making, one of the most important being the clutch factor, and RIchardson is below my cutoff for that too at 23.5% GWD. Give me a 58% COMP with 35% GWD QB from college in a 65%+ vertical passing game with at least one championship. I'll look into their leadership/personality and then possibly put them on my board. Anthony Richardson does not make the cut. There is more to it, but COMP layered with GWD will filter out many of the college QBs that will not win a championship at the NFL level - even with the best coaches in the NFL.

Anthony Richardson can't pass. He's a fastball pitcher that will get picked off 4 to 5 times a game in the NFL. He has 0 touch and can't layer his passes and has little arm talent. His footwork in the pocket is raw. He is a wildcat QB that every NFL defense will challenge to win the game with his arm. Definitely not a QB Reich would want behind center. There is no stability to his game and he is not clutch with his situational football.

There is no CONSENSUS PEDIGREE QB in the NFL draft. Trading up is always a bad move, but it would be a very bad move with this QB class. The best options for a championship QB appear to be in free agency this year.

Jimmy Garoppolo is the 6th best active QB in playoff wins. Rodgers, Mahomes, Flacco, Wilson, Burrow, Garoppolo, Foles, Stafford, Allen, Ryan are the top 10 active QBs in playoff experience. This is what Reich means by stability. 2 of his preferred QBs are on on this list. Expect him to favor these QBs if they are available. Jimmy G would go to the top of Reich's list when he becomes available. Luck and Rivers were in the top 10 before they retired. Be ready for a QB room with the likes of Flacco, Garoppolo, and Foles.

Stability and great foot work with a proven ability to be clutch is what Reich wants at the QB position. That is not Brissett or most, if not all, of the QB prospects in the draft this year. I'm expecting Nick Foles when released and Jacob Eason to be part of the QB plan. Reich's choice of OC, QB coach, and PGC will tell us more. Reich has not favored drafting a 1st round QB. He believed Eason to have the most arm talent in the 2020 draft with Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert, and Hurts in that same draft class. Reich wanted his #2 to be Eason with the Colts, and Eason signed a futures contract knowing Reich favors him.

He is the one who hit Mahomes out of bounds for a 15 yard penalty. Set the Chiefs up for an easier FG. Otherwise the FG has to go 15 yards further. Big mistake when the Bengals defense is playing for OT.

Goodnight Joe Burrow

Lombardi said the game comes down to 3 plays and you don't want to be the player to cost your team on those plays so always be ready!

Butker can kick a 70 yard FG

We have a good #2 WR. I'd still take Muhammad as a #2 over DJ. Not sure where DJ would be in the depth chart for the 2003 team. Proehl's route running and hands may have put DJ at #4 at WR.

One day the Panthers will have another #1 WR. Watching Chase makes me miss Smitty. Been soooo long

Bengals get a gift. 49ers, Chiefs, and Refs giving out gifts today

Wish we had a kicker like Butker

If that were the Eagles, they would have called it complete. Shanahan, take note. This is how you coach in the playoffs even if you may lose the challenge!

And for anyone thinking this is was of the worst NFC Championship implosions, you need to go back and watch the Panthers steam roll in 2005 only to fall on their face in the NFC Championship game. You need good RBs to open up the passing game, average clutch QBs smart enough to keep the defense honest, and deep threats that open up space for the passing and running game. No one player can take over a game. You need all 3 pieces on offense. Defense always has the advantage against an offense who can't bring all 3 pieces.

Not until every team loses a game because of it!

Eagles players are out of the SB who came on the field

Reddick throw a punch?

Ejection for everyone throwing a punch and no SB