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Don't deflate them all now with reality. They want to believe this is how championship teams are built before the new coaches can even get reps with their new team that needs a new culture and a foundation that has yet to be put in place. Chark wanted a longer contract at more money. Reich wanted Chark as depth for his 3 WR offensive fit. So, rent him for a year and take care of that depth spot next season. Reich needs to find his big work horse/playmaker #1 WR now. Thielen is the #2 and Chark is the #3. Still a big void for Reich's play calling at that WR position. I believe he'll target a WR in the draft for that spot.
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Looking at Success or Failure of top 10 to 12 QBs since 2000
CPantherKing replied to Hoenheim's topic in Carolina Panthers
You are better off avoiding a 1st round QB unless they are a consensus pedigree 5 star QB who has had consistent success in college over 4 years. You will miss a lot more than you hit and waste the draft capital needed to build a championship roster. My standard for a top 10 pick QB is instant starter, playoff winner, consistent SB contender, and min 10 year career. Otherwise, you are just as well off drafting the 1st round QB who falls out of the 1st round. 85% of QBs who are given a franchise QB opportunity make it to the playoffs. Doesn't matter what round. 1st round picks actually get to the playoffs 80% of the time. 6th round to undrafted QBs who are given the franchise QB opportunity get to the playoffs 90% of the time. The top 10 QBs you listed who are given a franchise QB opportunity get to the playoffs 70% of the time. My standard of success for QBs related to their draft position is not who gets drafted or who gets a franchise QB opportunity. I want to know what QBs successfully lead their draft team for multiple years. Level 1 success is getting the team to the playoffs. Level 2 success is winning with their team in the playoffs. Level 3 success is getting their team to a championship. Level 4 success is winning a championship and getting to the SB with their drafted team. Level 5 success is winning the SB with their team. Break each level of success down by round. You will be surprised how overrated 1st round QBs have been and continue to be. 1st round QBs who have failed their draft position and redeemed themselves with another team at the SB level happen every decade. Jim Plunkett/Doug Williams from the 70s. Steve Young from the 80s. Trent Dilfer from the 90s. Matthew Stafford from the 2000s. There will be one of the many failed 1st round QBs from the 2010s that will add themselves to this list (Panthers fans have been hoping to find this rare failure through their lineup of Bridgewater, Darnold, and Mayfield). My money is on Lamar Jackson achieving this once in a decade feat. -
Panthers are taking Stroud, and Houston knows it
CPantherKing replied to GOAT's topic in Carolina Panthers
No. It's in the CBA if you want to read the legalese details on how it works. It's 'no first refusal' is separated throughout the document. -
Panthers are taking Stroud, and Houston knows it
CPantherKing replied to GOAT's topic in Carolina Panthers
This tells me that Houston knows they are getting Bryce Young at #1. Carolina agrees to trade the #1 pick to the Texans as long as the Texans do what they want. They have agreed to compensation and that the Texans will not pursue Stroud. Now, the Panthers set their targets on convincing the Colts to trade up for Stroud. So, an army shows up for the Panthers and no one shows up for the Texans. What does this tell the Colts? It tells them that they are not getting Young and if they want Stroud, they need to agree to a deal with the Panthers. I expect the Colts and Texans to not be showing up at all to Levis and Richardson pro days. The Panthers meant it when they said they wanted to control the draft, and they are doing it one pro day at a time. I expect the Panthers to get the #2, #12, #33, and 2024 2nd round pick from the Texans in exchange for Young. Before Levis' pro day, I expect the Panthers to have an agreement made with the Colts for the #4, #35, TE Jelani Woods, and 2024 1st round pick from the Colts in exchange for position for Stroud. Also, the Colts will agree to not show up to the pro days for Levis and Richardson. At this point, the Panthers line up the Seahawks, Lions, and Raiders for the position to get their QB. One of them will give up picks to jump to the #4 spot for their pick of QB. I believe it will be the Lions wanting to jump the Seahawks for Richardson. Lions give up their #6, #18, 2024 2nd round pick, and 2024 5th round pick. The Panthers arrange a deal with Raiders to move up to 6 and take Will Levis contingent on the Seahawks passing on Levis. Raiders give up #7, #38, 2024 1st round and 2024 4th round. Panthers trade #18 and a 2024 1st round pick for Lamar Jackson. Panthers turn #9, #61, 2024 1st round, 2025 2nd round, and DJ Moore into... Panthers have #7, #12, #33, #35, #38, #39, QB Lamar Jackson, TE Jelani Woods, 2024 1st round pick, 2x 2024 2nd round pick, 2024 4th round pick, and 2024 5th round pick. Panthers draft DT/DE Jalen Carter, WR Quentin Johnston, EDGE Nolan Smith, NT/DT Siaki Ika, NT/DT Mazi Smith, RB Israel Abanikanda, TE Zach Kuntz, RB Chase Brown, WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton, and DB Cory Trice Jr with their 10 draft picks. QB-Lamar Jackson/Andy Dalton RB-Miles Sanders/Israel Abanikanda/Chase Brown TE-Hayden Hurst/Jelani Woods/Zach Kuntz/Tommy Tremble WR-Quentin Johnston/Adam Thielen/(DJ Chark)/Terrace Marshall Jr/Bryce Ford-Wheaton/Laviska Shenault OL-Bradley Bozeman/Taylor Moton/Austin Corbett/Ikem Ekwonu/Brady Christensen DL-Derrick Brown/Siaki Ika/Mazi Smith/Jalen Carter EDGE-Brian Burns/Nolan Smith ILB-Jeremy Chinn/Shaq Thompson/Frankie Luvu CB-Jaycee Horn/CJ Henderson/Cory Trice Jr/Donte Jackson S-Vonn Bell/Xavier Woods Not exactly what I would want, believe are the best players in the draft, or believe will be the best in the NFL. This is what I believe Reich/Fitterer/Tepper will want to achieve going in to the 2023 season. Let's see it play out. Tepper is going to take the entire NFL for a wild ride in the draft just like he has with this coaching staff. It doesn't stop with trading up for the #1 pick and simply drafting a QB. -
Bears would have accepted Moore, Burns or Brown.
CPantherKing replied to Varking's topic in Carolina Panthers
So, defense is more important than offense to this Reich led coaching staff to set the foundation of the team. A coach who likes to load up on 2nd round picks to set up his roster in the first 2 years, loads up on defensive picks in the early rounds of the first 2 drafts (6 defensive and 1 offensive skill position in rounds 1 to 3) and skill position players on day 3 of the draft. Yet, the thinking is they want a QB with the #1 pick who is not a consensus #1 franchise QB from day 1. No chance they stockpile 2nd round picks by baiting QB hungry teams and go after their top defensive player in the 2023 draft. Right? -
In a Reich offense, he builds the passing game around 8 receivers - 3 WRs, 3 TEs, and 2 RBs. They need to be strong and tough. He wants tall TEs. WRs and TEs need have 4.5 speed and RBs need to be sub 4.5. Appears to me Reich wants 1 vet leader at RB and TE that fits his system. I expect he will want to draft 2 TEs. Zach Kuntz is the only TE that fits what Reich wants. Jelani Woods was that TE build last year. He wants excellent TE speed, height, and great hands in his TE. If QB is not the target with the #1, I could see the Panthers switching spots with the Texans so they can have Bryce Young, and then swapping with the Colts so they can have CJ Stroud. The Panthers could pick up 3 2nd round picks and Jelani Woods by moving down to #4. The Panthers could have Hayden Hurst, Jelani Woods, and Zach Kuntz for their TE packages. Panthers would also add the #33, 35, and 65 picks to go along with the #4 and 39 pick. This would add immediate impact players at several positions to pair with the vets that have been signed.
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Be sure to inform Evero and Capers about this since they messed up and went with 6-3 240 OLBs in Denver. Browning and Cooper were the OLBs that got the starts for the Broncos. Chubb is the unusual 34 OLB at his size. The average for their OLBs was 6-3 252. Evero goes with long and fast OLBs. Will Anderson is exactly what Evero looks for in a 34 OLB while being a half inch taller and 1 pound heavier. You should also know the DE is over the OT in a 34 defense. You do not know about a 34 defense and position responsibilities/matchups. Clearly it is common in 2022 and Evero will go with smaller OLBs than Will Anderson. I used Capers 34 defense in Carolina as an example, but I guess you don't know much about that era for the Panthers. As for Ekwonu, you can stop the lies in hopes people will believe you. I have never said he is a bust. You all keep that going. I said he is an ALL PRO Guard playing/struggling with his pass blocking at LT. You keep an eye on Glass. He is still around, and the NFL QB position has a long history of successful franchise QBs coming from other professional leagues.
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Tell me you don't know what an edge/spur/dog does in a 34/35 defense without telling me you don't know. I'll let Kevin Greene and Lamar Lathon know they can't be 34 OLBs in a defense that can win because they are some of the worst tackling and coverage LBs in NFL history.
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Watch as the Panthers target Will Anderson to complete the best 34 LB combo to keep their promise to Evero/Capers. Will Anderson - Shaq Thompson - Jeremy Chinn - Brian Burns. Rotate to a 35 with Luvu coming in at LB for Xavier Woods. This will be fun to see and give the Panthers the best chance at winning under Reich while they pick up extra picks to stock up on receiving talent at TE, RB, and WR. Breer and Keyshawn are on point. Panthers make the Texans and Colts pay up for Bryce Young and CJ Stroud.
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Amazing? How many championships has been part of in his illustrious career? Who has he been replaced by at every stop? The weight on any #1 pick is enormous and crushing. They will need much more around them and be among the best in NFL history than a QB who has never been able to make success happen. There is a reason top 5 QBs continually struggle and fail at a predictable rate and in a predictable fashion.
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No QB has ever been worth the value of 5 1st round picks. The expectations are going to be huge on this QB and GM from day 1. The most pressure any rookie QB will be subjected to in NFL history, and there is no foundation for a rookie QB to stand on with the Panthers. Dynasty or bust. A single SB win in 10 years is not enough for this investment.
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Another big miss in the offseason. Any GM with a 36 year old Dalton on their QB board should lose their job.
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Keyshawn Johnson thinks we “could” move up for Will Anderson…
CPantherKing replied to Chad_Cota's topic in Carolina Panthers
1st year coaching staff. No foundation to build on. Giving away the value of 5 1st round picks for a QB that is not a clear consensus day one pro ready QB. A severe lack of defensive playmakers and leadership. You have a better shot at being a SB contender in 3 years with a college coaching staff, trading down out of every first round for the next 3 years, and signing all 30 year old free agent QBs. Bill Walsh, Jimmy Johnson, Mike Holmgren, Andy Reid, and Bill Belichick would all have been set up to be fired in 3 losing seasons by their GM if this is how they started off year 1. -
Trade down. Build a team. Load up the roster with 4 QBs that have been developed by championship coaches. Last year was the miracle method ala 1999 Rams. This year is no clear 1st round franchise QB for a dynasty so load up the stable with coachable QBs and build the team ala 1992 Packers. Grab up 4 QBs (Brett Favre 2nd rd trade, Ty Detmer 9th rd, Mark Brunell 5th rd, and Kurt Warner UDFA). Round up overlooked prospects and let the QB gurus do their work (Holmgren, Reid, Gruden, and Mariucci). Pass on the Klinglers (Levis/Richardson) pass on the Maddoxs (Stroud/Young). Trade down and build up the defense or find freakish receivers in the 1st round.
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How can you predict the success of a college QB in the NFL?
CPantherKing replied to d-dave's topic in Carolina Panthers
Bart Starr, Len Dawson, Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach, Ken Stabler, Jim Plunkett, Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Doug Williams, Jim Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, Rich Gannon, Chris Chandler, Neil O'Donnell, Stan Humphries, Steve Grogan, David Woodley, Ken Anderson, Ron Jaworski, Vince Ferragamo, Fran Tarkenton, Joe Kapp, Daryle Lamonica, Mark Brunell, Jake Plummer, Erik Kramer, Jay Schroeder, Wade Wilson, Dieter Brock, Jim Zorn, Danny White, Dan Fouts, Pat Haden, Bob Lee, James Harris, George Blanda, Bill Nelsen, Jack Kemp, Don Meredith, and Brock Purdy all agree with you. That would be 52 of the 107 QBs who have seen an NFL championship game. 85% of all QBs who are given a franchise opportunity make it to the playoffs (6th round to undrafted get to the playoffs more [91%] than 1st round QBs [81%]). Then you have QBs who win playoff games and never get to a championship game. Then you have the championship QBs listed above who you have championed. For those who take exception to history, there have been 42 QBs who have gone to a championship game since 2000. 14 are on the above list, and 11 of them went to the SB. 12 have been 1st round picks that went to the SB for the team that drafted them. In the last 10 seasons, there have been 17 QBs making it to that coveted championship game. 5 are on the above list, and 4 have been to the SB. Only 5 1st round picks have made it to the SB for the team that drafted them. Don't look at the greater probability of success with the average Joe's. Don't factor in the 100% increase in 1st round QBs over the last 12 years (40 1st round QBs; 85 over first 44 seasons). Nothing to see there. They are not busts, they are just 1st round projects - 3rd time's a charm. Oversaturating the NFL with 1st round projects is in no way decreasing opportunities for the late round and undrafted QBs with a greater probability of getting a team to a SB (4 in 5 is definitely not better than 5 in 10). Drafting a 1st round QB definitely has a clear advantage over those average Joe's. Those Joe's just can't keep up with those 1st round Joe's. We all will be happy trading up in the 1st round for that Joe Flacco or Joe Burrow instead of getting that Joe Montana and Jerry Rice, or that Joe Theismann and Art Monk. And 1st round franchise picks have been the best for building a decade long dynasty. There's... Terry Bradshaw compared to Johnny Unitas, Bart Starr, Roger Staubach, Stabler/Plunkett, Montana/Young, Theismann/Williams/Rypien, and Brady. Ok, well 1st round picks have dominated the half decade dynasty with Bob Griese, Troy Aikman, Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes. Decade long dynasties are overrated. Let's trade 5 1st round picks to trade up for Bryce Young. Nothing else will give us a similar or better shot at winning a championship!!!