SCO96

On 4/29/2024 at 7:32 PM, Basbear said:

The main point of drafting a rookie is for them to play on that cheap contract. At min penix will play two years from now, thus washing out the good part of his contract. Only way this works if cousins gets re-injured or busts. He will be 26-27 and need another contract by then

 Everyone talks about how important it is to draft a QB in round 1 and have the "5th year option" I haven't seen it play out the well over the past several years.

The good/great QB' aren't playing the first 5 years under their original deal.  After year 3 or 4 they are getting mammoth extensions.

Having Penix take over in year 3 may actually save the Falcons some money over the next 5 seasons. I doubt they'd give him an extension after his first year as a starter if he took over the starting position after the guaranteed portion of Kurt Cousins new deal ends in 2025.   In terms of playing time, Penix 3 years as a starter would be ending with the 5th year of his rookie deal (assuming his option was picked up). The money Penix would be making in year 5 of a rookie contract would be significantly less than the upper echelon 5 year starters are making now.

15 minutes ago, CRA said:

I think the coach who ran an archaic 90s offense that mostly consisted of 4 players running a 10 yard curl killed himself. Bryce didn’t play well but he was a rookie who had the leagues worst receiving corp and a bottom 3 offensive line. He did not kill any coach. That poo is laughable.

While I agree with you to a point, I think the routes were simplified to deal with Bryce's physical limitations. I think we would have seen much more creativity in the offense if we had a big armed QB behind center like Stroud, Richardson, or Levis.

If you take time to watch that video on page 6 of this thread, you'll see that Bryce was terrible on the deep pass last year. 

Teams quickly figured out that he wasn't able to throw deep with consistency and not a threat to throw outside the numbers unless it was a short curl or a bubble screen. You really only had to drop 10 yards and take the area between the numbers. Even if we had receivers last season that could get better separation, the opposing team still would have been able to defend our passing plays because it's easy to sit on the routes.

On 4/27/2024 at 10:30 PM, *FreeFua* said:

 

After watching this video it's quite obvious why the team went after Johnson (and  XL) this offseason. We can't keep working the middle of the field with dig, hook, and crossing route and expect to be any better on offense this season.

3 minutes ago, Krovvy said:

I personally do not value a second round pick from next year that highly as you never know where it'll land and what the board will be. I feel like there were 3 guys available this year to help this team.

I’d love this pick if we’re a perennial power year in a year out. Coming off of a 2-15 season and no winning seasons since 2018 means Carolina needs as many sure things in this draft as possible.  We may still luck out at 52, but I hate seeing these good players fly off the board.

That said, I’ll wait until I see what we get @52. Unfortunately, this reminds me of what we did in 2021 when we traded down from the top 10 in round 2 and ended up with TMJ, only to see Pro Bowl center Creed Humphrey come off the board several picks later

24 minutes ago, rodeo said:

We need an actual pass catching RB but other than that yes, the offense should be miles better.

How can the offense be "miles better" when we already have "Miles Sanders" on our roster. 

DJ Clark and Jonathan Mingo were our #2 and #3 receivers behind Theilan. The two of them combined for 78 catches ,5 TDS , and 943 yards . Those are the type of number you should expect for a lone #2 receiver or a stud TE over the course of a 17 game season.

To match that production level in 2024 XL would need to average 4.5 receptions per game, a TD every 3 games, and 55.5 yards per game. If XL is used properly and if Bryce is competent enough to get him the ball he should have no trouble reaching (or surpassing) those totals which would be a huge improvement for our passing game. 

Theilan is still a dependable #3 and the addition of Johnson gives us a true # 1. On paper we are without a doubt better at WR. Whether or not it translates to the field remains to be seen.

2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

We're 11 picks in and defense is nowhere to be seen. 5 QBs, 3 WRs, and 3 OTs. Ya think the league might be driven by offense?

I subscribe to the Ron Rivera philosophy. Run the ball to control the clock and stop the run on defense. Keep the games close and let the defense win your games.......

Just now, jb2288 said:

I think they know they tampered and will be losing their 1st next year. Grab your future dude while you have the chance. Who knows what 2026 looks like 

You may be on to something there!

Guys, I think the Falcon was a head scratcher. But, they've got Penix for 5 years if they pick up the option. Maybe ATL feels Cousins only has 2-3 top years left and when they move on they'll have a potential franchise guy on the roster to take over with 2 -3 left on his rookie deal.

Let's forget the GB selected Aaron Rodgers when Favre was still playing at a high level and let him sit for 3 seasons.

13 hours ago, WhoKnows said:

No issues with your post, it just slapped me back to reality again after you were posting about getting a rookie C (and a WR). Helping Chubba, Miles and Bryce and also knowing if we go C and WR, it means we still have holes at TE and all over the D and our RBs/QB combo is likely the worst in the NFL. Ugh, we really need to hit our picks this year and next. We can’t miss any day 1 (next year) and day 2 picks.

I've already said this before, but I think it's worth mentioning again. Not only do we have high draft choices in round 2 (#33 and #39) we also have the first pick in round 3. With all of the holes on our team, we should come come out of this draft with 3 starters with our first 3 picks...or at worst 2 starters and a player who shows enough promise to start in 2025 and contributes significantly in 2024. Anything less would be a major disappointment.

48 minutes ago, top dawg said:

I mean, if they believe that he can play center at a proficient level, then he probably can. Not sure why message boarders would think that they know more than Morgan or Canales (or Joe Gilbert or Brad Idzik), but if they draft a center or not, I'm sure they're doing what they believe is best for the team.

What you are saying should be true. However, our franchise has shown a tendency to either underestimate or over value players for years. Our recent draft history is proof that our front office and coaching staffs are far from perfect in personnel evaluation.

We've:

Given away high draft choices for JAGS (Darnold and CJ Henderson)

Given away picks to move up in the draft only to pick players who make no impact significant impact in their rookie seasons (BY, Matt Corall, DJ Henderson)

Used draft capital to select players only to attempt to convert them to new positions (Armani Edwards, Brady Christensen)

Traded down to accumulate picks only to select JAGS (Terrace Marshall, Daviyon Nixon, Keith Taylor).

With the new coaching staff and new GM things may turn around in a hurry. I certainly hope it does. But, our recent roster decisions concern me. I'd feel better drafting a younger/healthier kid out of college to play center in 2024 instead of relying on a older player coming off of an injury who has never played the center position on a regular basis.

1 hour ago, CRA said:

I'd be more comfortable overpaying the first vet cut that has real C experience.  If Corbett fails or gets hurt.....a rookie C is bad news for Bryce IMO.   Not saying you can't draft a kid.  But the whole revamping of the OL and having a makeshift C leaves me uneasy.  If the C spot is a mess, all that money and investment at G gets minimized. 

If a starting caliber WR is available at 33, picking him would be the ideal move. However, I would not be upset (or I would at least understand the rationale) of taking a center with this pick. 

From what I've seen in the mocks, Graham Barton (Oregon) and Jackson Power-Johnson (Oregon) are the only 2 centers expected to come off the board in round 1. Both are projected to be effective starters in th3 NFL. But, if there is a run at certain positions one of them could slide into day 2 of the draft. I couldn't fault the Panthers if we took either one of them at 33.

Zach Frazier (West Virginia) and Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (Georgia) are projected to go in rounds 2 or 3 and are viewed as solid starters at the NFL level. If we went WR at 33, we'd still have a chance to get one the these guys at #39 or with our first pick in the round 3.

Having a stout interior is only going to help Chubba, Miles, and Bryce. If Bryce ends up as a bust at least the next QB would join a team with a solid interior line in front of him.

2 hours ago, jasonluckydog said:

If you can't get an extra 2nd or early 3rd its not worth it.  4th through 7th historically has the smallest chance of sticking around. Undrafted FA tend to do better. 

If we could trade down to 35/36 and pick up an extra high draft choice in the 3rd round I “might” consider a move down. But as someone pointed out earlier, we are more likely to find a starter the higher they are selected in the draft.

If the Panthers are indeed locked in on Legette, they should have told him to keep quiet about it for the reason cited in your post. 

However, I do think that there is a good chance that we won't get leap-frogged this year.  A team may take Legette in round one with their original pick make all of this a moot point.  But if a team wants to move up from the 2nd round into the back end of the 1st round, they're probably going to have to give up a #1 pick in next years draft. I think most teams will find the price a little too high to go thru with a deal.

Having the first pick in the 2nd round means we can't be leap frogged on Day 2. We could be if we were in any other draft slot.

23 hours ago, Camp Fodder said:

Looks like a Scott Fitterer draft

All of us were upset (and a bit embarrassed) to be to have the worst team/record in the NFL and head into the 2024 season without a first round draft choice after picking #1 last season. 

Now, we have the first pick in the 2nd round and people are actually in favor of trading down for more lesser picks. First round caliber talents are going to fall into the 2nd round....and we are not going to have to pay them a first round contract. 

Why on earth would you move down? I could see doing so if we had a stacked roster and was not in need of an immediate starter from this draft. That's not the case. Our poor drafts this decade resulted in Carolina having the least talented roster in the NFL last year. We should come out of this draft with starters with those first 2 draft choices. To be frank, even out first choice in round 3 should make a significant contribution to the team, even if he doesn't start immediately.

Until Morgan and the rest of the FO proves that they are sloid talent evaluators, they should take the bpa. On paper we have done a great job addressing a lot of holes via FA. No need to get cute with trade dowsn.

7 hours ago, MHS831 said:

I am going out on a limb here....First round teams that are likely to select a WR:

• Arizona
• Baltimore
• Buffalo
• Cleveland
• Kansas City
• LA Chargers
• N Y Giants

 WR is believed to be their #1 need.

WR is also the Panthers' #1 Need--so if we take a WR at #33, it is possible that we are spending our first and most valuable draft pick on the ninth best WR.  Yikes.

  That means WR is the #1 need for 8 teams, according to Mock Draft Database.  Another 9 teams have WR listed as their second need, so if we don't take the ninth best WR (hypothetically) at 33 or 36, we could be taking the 18th best WR at pick #65.   That means that during the first 64 picks, 17 Wide Receivers will be chosen or considered carefully.  (Hypothetically speaking here--could be less, and probably will be).

 

 

 

 

On the surface that may sound bad. But, with the exception of our recently acquired pick from Pittsburgh, the 9th best receiver in the draft may still be better than anyone currently on our roster. 

On the flip side, because so many receivers are projected to go in the first, a first round talent is likely going to fall to us at some other position of need. We may be able to wait until #39 to grab a WR or even later as you pointed out. The O-line is already significantly better so I doubt we're taking an O-lineman at 33 or 39. 

No matter what we decide to do, if we don't come away with 2 (and arguably 3) solid starters after day 2 then this draft will end up being a massive disappointment.

This is off topic a bit, but I’ll toss it out there. Rattler made some nice throws in those clips. If he’s on the board in the 4th (or even the 5th) should we roll the dice? 

He’s got a better arm than Bryce Young. He definitely has chemistry with Leggette. If we did take Leggette in round 2, I think it would be hard to pass on Rattler if he’s still on the draft board late on day 3. Thoughts?

1 hour ago, mrcompletely11 said:

and another thing, did he work with geno and bakers footwork or just install a scheme that benefited their skill set?  He seems to be taking a poo ton of credit for a lot of things

If only one of the above is true, I still think that's commendable. Our coaching staff doesn't appear to have done either for Bryce during the 2023 season.

We're all hoping for the best. But, if Bryce is plays like he did last season, do you guys think Tepper would just face reality and go into 2025 knowing that still need a franchise QB?

5 minutes ago, ECHornet said:

If we draft Legette with one of our second rounds picks, I’d try to trade Mingo for a 3rd. 

Based on what he did last season (or didn't do last season), I don't think any team in the NFL would give you a 3rd for Mingo. I hate to say it, but you can probably be able to find a better WR in the 3rd round this year. If I were a GM, I wouldn't trade anything for him.

1 hour ago, Tbe said:

Mingo was a mistake.

If he doesn't show up and show out this season all of us are going to have to agree with you. I do want to see how he does in the new scheme before I write him off as a bust.

21 minutes ago, bythenbrs said:

And therein lays the hope (or curse), if there is any.  Bryce will have to re-sign with the Panthers on a cap friendly deal.  Any other team will see and understand what the Panthers had to do to build a system around him, and the cost incurred.  He will be a special situation QB, for the right system only.  Who will want to sign him for Josh Allen money?  He won’t even get Tua money.  
 

Point guard.

These 2nd QB contracts have got out of hand. Every QB isn't worth $40 million. The Giants were crazy to give Daniel Jones all of the money.

If Bryce gets better, but doesn't become elite QB over the next 2-3 seasons, then you need to start negotiating with him before he hits his 5th year...preferably after year 3. You let him know that we can't afford to get you a $5o mil deal and keep the rest of the talent around you. If you realize that Bryce wants more than he's worth you draft a guy high in the draft before the 5th year and let him hit the market. Unless he's become a stud by the end of year 5, he's going to realize that he isn't going to get a $50 mil deal from another team.

Bryce seems to have a good head on his shoulders. He may realize that he needs to stay in Carolina to have the best chance to succeed in the NFL.

2 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

But if the right player falls out of the first and it's not someone we want/need, let's get some teams into a bidding war, I can see some teams putting out a great offer for it if they want to move up for a QB and don't want to get jumped.

My ideal would be someone's 2024 2nd and 2025 1st for 33 and then depending how far that fall is in the 2nd, a 4th or 5th rounder.

Maybe I'm in the minority here. But, if I were a GM, there is NO WAY I'd trade away a 1st round pick in next year's draft class for a 2nd round pick in the current year. That's the type of deal Marty Hurney would make and have all of us ready to throw shoes at the television on draft night.

We didn't have 1st round selections in 2009 or 2010. Hurney was so desperate to get "his guy" that he would trade away a first in future years to nab a JAG in the 2nd round of the present draft. I seem to recall us doing that one year to move up to select the great "Everette Brown" at DE in 2009. We also didn't have a pick in 2010 until #48 when we chose Jimmy Clausen. We had traded away our round 1 pick in 2010 prior to the draft night.

The scenario you laid out is might work if you were dealing with an inept GM (i.e. Hurney). No one with a rational mind would consider such a move unless the GM realized team roster was so stacked that a #1 pick might not be able to crack the starting lineup for some time. Then, I could see trading down a bit to pick up some additional choices to build solid depth at each position. Other than that, use those picks to get the best player. You can never have too much talent on a football team.

Keep the picks. I wouldn't want to give one away even for a first round selection in 2025.

This is a good draft in terms of talent for the first 3 rounds. We've already improved our team thru the first week in free agency. We're almost assured of getting some 1st round caliber players who slip into round 2 with the 33rd and 39th selections. We also have the first pick in round 3 (#65).

If we choose wisely, getting 3 of the top players between 1-65 almost offsets not having a first round selection this year...especially if they turn out to be quality starters.

Question(s) guys.

If Johnson comes in do you think he immediately becomes our #1?

Does this effectively make Theilan our slot WR (#2 or #3)?

What role does Mingo play?

Do we still make drafting a WR our top priority in round 2? Or do we focus on another need like DB, LB, C, S, DL, or TE?