SCO96

Icky is a good player. He deserves to be resigned. BUT, there is NO WAY any knowledgeable football fan believes that Icky is a top 5 player at his position in the NFL. The point of my post was that a guy who may not even be in the top 10 at his position SHOULD NOT RESET the market for Left Tackles just because he's the next guy up to have a contract extension. If he does, then that puts even more financial stress on a team that may have resign a QB to "record deal" in the next year or two. The NFL salary structure is ridiculous. Merit is what is really meaningless. In some cases you don't even have to be that good in the NFL at the top of the NFL pay scale. You just need to be the next in line to get a new deal.

When I see those figures my stomach gets queasy at the thought of Bryce getting a similar deal. I think it would be a wise for the FO to speak to him and his agent before the deadline for 5th year option. If Bryce expects a similar deal prior to his 4th year...or even after his 4th year...Morgan needs to try to work out a trade deal and move him.

The above scenario would be a nightmare for Carolina. It's tough having to make decisions on who to keep and who to let go. You have to look at which position can I spend less on and still get similar production. In our case I think it would be the quarterback position. For most teams with a legitimate franchise QB, that decision would/should be easy. It's hard to replace a guy like Mahomes, Allen, or Stafford in terms of production. Those guys can make any throw and can carry a team on their backs to compensate for the weaker areas of the roster. However, a starting QB who does not produce at an ELITE level and needs the team to carry them is easier to replace than solid LT. I'm not giving Young a 45+ million deal prior to his 4th year at the expense of a solid left tackle when the said QB isn't even a top 10 QB in his own CONFERENCE.

If we somehow won our division and made the playoffs in 2025, I could understand the reasoning behind picking up the 5th year option on Young. However, I would let him know not to expect any renegotiations until the deal expires (end of 2027). If Bryce became crazy productive in year 4 and Carolina returned to the playoffs in 2026, I could understand the reasoning behind giving him a new deal prior to 2027. Under no circumstances would I make him the highest paid QB in the NFL. There is no way I'm letting BY get a deal that is going or "reset the market"...unless we win the SUPER BOWL. If he wants to "reset the market" you let him play out his final year and acquire or draft a QB prior to the 2027 season with the intent to start that person in 2028.

I think Icky was shown steady improvement and really should be entering the prime years of his career that position. He's a first round draft choice that panned out and I think he needs to be resigned. That said, your above formula is correct, but concerning. Icky is Good player and could potentially become great. But, should a 4 year starter at LT that has never been selected for an 1st or 2nd All-Pro team or been selected to a Pro Bowl become receive a new record setting contract and become the highest paid LT in football? We may have to do as you suggested in your post. If he does get that deal, then the financial situation at QB becomes even more concerning. If Young and his agent insist on a contract in line the "QB Market" and you want to retain him you either have to hope he takes a hometown discount (i.e. below market value contract) or have a guy in the wings to replace him when he decides to hit the open market. We still have crucial holes to fill at EDGE, LB, S. It's fun to pretend to be a GM, but in real life we can only imagine how stressful that job really is.

The Saints game is what really concerned me. We were playing a 1-8 at home and they were starting a rookie QB. Bryce played one of the worst games I've seen him play. Those type of performances (and the one in SF last Monday) are why most of us are not on board with extending him, or even picking up the 5th year option.

Your chart confirms what I noticed yesterday. No real success passing the ball in the middle of the field. Everything is pretty much confined to the area outside the numbers and hashmarks. I didn't realize he only completed 2 passes that were 10 yards beyond the LOS until you mentioned it in an earlier post. BTW, where did you get this chart?

Yes sir. And sometimes they'll even have a graph with a distribution of where the ball was thrown: to the left, to the right or over the middle. I feel that I've noticed a trend with Bryce in terms of how he attacks the field. I want to know if the analytics back me up or if I'm just imaging things.

Sometimes after a game one of the Huddlers will post a picture of Bryce's past distribution chart. Where do you get that data? And has anything been posted for yesterdays game?

Actually, that was all me my man. I looked at the YPA numbers in ESPN. Bryce is 6.4 this year, 6.3 last year, and under 6.0 in 2023. I just typed in the wrong number and forgot to average the 3 seasons.

Oops, thanks for catching that. That's even worse news.

Yep. I've known about the importance of Yards/attempt for years but it was nice to see it all summarized in an easy to read format.

I found the below information on the web this morning. It's rather long, but it pretty much sums up Bryce's career (to date) with the Panthers. When he plays well, we play well. When he delivers a typical "Bryce Young Performance" the team struggles. The segment detailing the meaning of a his career YPA completely describes his tenure in Carolina ------ In the modern NFL, anything around 7.5 yards per attempt (YPA) or higher is considered good, and 8.0+ YPA is typically viewed as very good to excellent. YPA Benchmarks (Modern NFL) 6.5 and below — Poor (As of yesterday Young's career mark is 6.4) 6.6 to 7.2 — Below average to average 7.3 to 7.6 — Solid/Good 7.7 to 8.2 — Very good 8.3+ — Excellent / top-tier QB efficiency (Yesterday Young posted a mark of 10.3) Why 7.5+ is “good” League-wide YPA in recent seasons typically sits in the 7.1–7.3 range. So once a quarterback is consistently above ~7.5, he’s operating above league efficiency and generating chunk plays without excessive short passes. What a Sub-6.5 YPA Typically Means 1. Inefficient passing You’re gaining fewer yards per throw than the league norm (~7.1–7.3). This usually correlates with: Fewer explosive plays Struggling to sustain drives Lower scoring offenses YPA is one of the best simple efficiency indicators, so being under 6.5 usually means the passing game isn’t functioning well. 2. Overly conservative passing A low YPA often reflects: Too many checkdowns Short, low-risk throws Not pushing the ball downfield Play calling designed to avoid mistakes rather than gain yards This is common with rookie QBs, backups, or teams with poor pass protection. 3. Difficulty completing intermediate and deep throws Low YPA can mean: The QB isn’t hitting big-play throws Accuracy issues Arm strength limitations Receivers not getting separation 4. Poor supporting structure Sometimes it’s not the QB—low YPA can also result from: Weak offensive line (forcing quick dump-offs) Below-average receivers Predictable or safe play calling Injuries limiting the scheme 5. Usually correlates with losing Historically, teams with <6.5 YPA tend to have: Below-average offensive efficiency Poor 3rd-down conversion Lower points per game Losing records YPA correlates strongly with winning; sub-6.5 teams often finish near the bottom.

I wonder if he'll receive any consideration for COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR. Because of the knee injury, D. Brown practically missed all of the 2024 season.

I still think Brown is not playing his natural position. He seems tailor-made to play the 4-3 NT, and even a 3-technique in some cases. Imagine him playing for Ron Rivera alongside Kwann Short with Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson coming off the edges. His sack totals would go up because he wouldn't be getting most of the attention like he does now.

I've been critical of Brown in the past. I never thought he was a bust. I just felt that to be taken that high in the draft he needed to have a bigger impact in the field, especially in terms of a pass rush in a pass-happy league. He always been good in most games against the run. This year his pass rush has improved. He has a career high 4 sacks this season (which leads the team), and we still have 4 games to go. That sack number is literally 1/3 of his career sack total (12). Even more impressive is the fact that he's having such a great season coming off an season-ending injury in 2024. He (and Horn) are really living up to their draft slot...and that's a good thing for the team and fans alike.

From Start to Finish it was one of the most entertaining games I've seen all year: Explosive Plays down the field, great catches, several lead changes w/out either team being able to land a knockout punch, crucial defensive stops/turnovers, and a down to the wire ending. And as you pointed out, Carolina came out on top!

Good point. I think we're ok at cornerback. We held our own against arguably the most explosive offense in the NFL with our best CB on the bench. We have several guys that can play SS as you pointed out. We need a Ball-Hawking guy to man the FS position. We know these guys don't grow on trees, but it would be nice to find a guy with great instincts that is good in pass coverage and could get us about 5 INTS every year.

The information/formula in my post comes from a defunct football site website, Cold Hard Football Facts.com. It was hosted by Kerry Byrne back in the day. I think the website closed down around 2016-2017 so I'm unable to directly access information from their webpage. I had to use Chat GTP to search the internet for the information/formula. The data is solid. After the MNF game I'll post some information about these passing stats. I can guarantee you that nearly every team with a +10 to +20 PDR is in the run a playoff spot and those in with a negative PDR are in the bottom third of the NFL in winning percentage.

Another major stat is defensive passer rating differential. This is calculated by the following formula. Passer Rating Differential = (Offensive Passer Rating) − (Opponent Passer Rating Allowed) 61.2 = (Bryce's rating 147.1) - (Stafford's rating 85.9) If a team has a +10 differential they have a 70-75% chance of winning A team with a +20 differential has 85-90% chance of winning A +25 to +30 differential has a 95% chance of winning. According to Chat GPT A passer rating differential of +25 or higher is one of the strongest predictors of victory in a single NFL game — more reliable than turnover differential, rushing yards, or total yards Bryce played well overall today, but a lion's share of the credit goes to the defense for their ability to force Stafford in several uncharacteristic errors to keep his QBR under 90 today. If the team is going to be successful going forward, Bryce is going to have to play like this from week to week or the team needs to bring another QB who is up to the task.

I have strong reservations committing to Young as longer starter with a 2nd contract. If I were GM, I'd follow the above scenario and let the chips fall where they may. Who knows, a legitimate threat to his starting job could if ignite a fire in Bryce and make him a better player. He's never really had to fight to win the starting job.

Normally I'd be inclined to agree with you, but not this time. That Saints loss was our most embarrassing defeat of the year. We got thumped by the Jags, Pats, and Bills this year...but all 3 of those squads are playoff caliber teams. We lost to a 1-8 Saints team at home against while they were starting a rookie QB. I have a feeling that lost still stings and I feel pretty confident we are going to beat the hell out of those guys when we see them again.

His playing style today reminded my of Bob Sanders, the Colt safety from the Manning/Dungy era. Whenever he was healthy the Colts defense played at another level. The only SB those two won together was when Sanders was healthy at the end of the season. He was a hard-hitting playmaker that set the tone for the entire defense. After 2006, he seemed to always be banged up and couldn't finish the season. Colts were never as good defensively once he became injury plagued. If Ransom could play like Bob Sanders did in his prime, and stay healthy throughout his prime, his presence alone could make us a top 10 defense.

This a perfect example of just how misleading statistics can be sometimes!

Stafford cost the Rams the game today. All of 3 of his turnovers were back breakers for LA and they lost the game. On the other hand Bryce has a couple of nice TD passes and made several critical completions that extended some drives and ultimately iced the game with the last completion to Coker. He also didn't make any major mistakes or turnovers that really hurt the team. In that sense he outplayed Stafford. If you swapped their stat-lines the Rams win this game. That said, in no game situation would I ever take Young over Stafford. Watching Stafford zip those passes all over the field actually made envious during the game. I actually agreed with one of your posts under another thread. Bryce still hasn't proven he can effectively throw against a strong zone coverage. He seems to be most effective against one on one coverage...and even then its usually outside the numbers and not over the middle of the field. I have a hard time seeing him improving on this due to his height and subpar arm, but it would be nice if he could.