SCO96

Carolina failed to capitalize on the turnovers and didn't produce enough points on offense to outscore the other team.

Top NFL defenses in "Havoc" which is the % of plays a defense gets a pressure, TFL, forced fumble, INT, or pass breakup: We rank at the bottom of the league in this department. --- No one is disagreeing with the data in your text. We know we need pass rushers to get more pressure on the QBs, better play in the secondary to improve our pass defense, and some impact guys at LB. But, Evero isn't playing with a stacked deck. Our defensive roster is mediocre at best. Despite our talent deficiency, Evero has statistically managed to field a middle of the road defense in Carolina. Our main issue is on the offensive side of the ball. We are only averaging 18.9 points per game. That ranks 28th of out of 32 teams. Only the Browns, Saints, Titans, and Raiders score less points per game than the Panthers. FYI: We've been outscored by the woeful Saints 37-24 in our 2 games this season. Our point total averages out to 12 pts a game and theirs is less than 20 (actually 18.5 pts per game). How is that Evero's fault? https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

They have had some issues at the QB spot this year. Purdy was injured and missed several games resulting in Mac Jones having to come off of the bench. Still, they have a solid 96.87 passer rating for the season. What's killing them is their pass defense. Their rating against the pass is 101.31! That's terrible when compared to the top pass defenses around the league. The 49ers rank 26 out of 32 teams in stopping the pass. I know they have had some injury issues this year so that could explain why their pass defense is mediocre. Fortunately for them, they are able to be an exception to the historical trend. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating

Passer Rating Differential = Offensive Passer Rating - Defensive Passer Rating Offensive Passer Rating = how efficient your team’s QBs are. Defensive Passer Rating Allowed = how efficient opposing QBs are against your defense. The larger the positive differential, the more dominant your team’s passing game is relative to opponents’ passing success. Conversely, a negative differential means your defense is getting carved up or your offense isn’t efficient enough. Almost every Super Bowl champion from the 1970s to the present day finished near the top of the league in DPRD (Defensive Passer Rating Differential). https://coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/passer-ratings-differential Look at where we are #16 and we have a Negative DPRD (-0.36). Every team above us has a a positive DPRD, is .500 or better, and still in running for a playoff spot. Look at the chart. The best teams in the NFL have the highest DPRD. Only 2 teams below us with a negative DPRD are still in contention or the playoffs: #19 San Francisco (-4.44) and # 21 Tampa Bay(-6.62). And, Tampa has no shot if they fail to beat us down the stretch at least once. The teams with the highest negative DPRD always seem to be at the bottom of the standings. I didn't learn about this stat until 15 years ago. It's amazing how it always seems to accurately predict who will be in playoff contention year end and year out. 1 = Los Angeles Rams 111.76 85.23 26.53 2 3 Philadelphia Eagles 100.00 75.57 24.43 3 1 Seattle Seahawks 100.30 77.42 22.88 4 1 Buffalo Bills 104.20 82.66 21.54 5 1 Los Angeles Chargers 91.46 71.19 20.27 6 1 Houston Texans 90.70 72.40 18.30 7 1 Detroit Lions 110.41 94.40 16.01 8 1 New England Patriots 109.10 96.75 12.35 9 3 Green Bay Packers 102.95 92.09 10.86 10 1 Denver Broncos 89.21 78.78 10.43 11 1 Indianapolis Colts 95.12 85.91 9.21 12 = Pittsburgh Steelers 97.42 89.90 7.52 13 = Baltimore Ravens 93.87 86.91 6.96 14 2 Jacksonville Jaguars 88.07 81.23 6.84 15 4 Chicago Bears 89.48 88.70 0.78 16 2 Carolina Panthers 88.77 89.13 -0.36 17 2 Arizona Cardinals 93.49 95.79 -2.30 18 1 Kansas City Chiefs 88.85 92.46 -3.61 19 1 San Francisco 49ers 96.87 101.31 -4.44 20 1 Atlanta Falcons 87.50 92.50 -5.00 21 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 89.77 96.39 -6.62 22 = Dallas Cowboys 98.69 108.92 -10.23 23 = New York Giants 87.74 98.84 -11.10 24 1 New Orleans Saints 84.97 96.17 -11.20 25 1 Miami Dolphins 88.33 102.37 -14.04 26 3 Minnesota Vikings 75.03 90.31 -15.28 27 3 Las Vegas Raiders 83.50 99.14 -15.64 28 = Cincinnati Bengals 84.51 104.46 -19.95 29 2 Washington Commanders 87.24 107.74 -20.50 30 3 Cleveland Browns 70.46 91.41 -20.95 31 1 New York Jets 77.75 104.86 -27.11 32 = Tennessee Titans 76.27 106.03 -29.76

Evero has his faults, but even in that loss, the team only gave up 20 points. Your post gets to the heart of the matter. We are not a talented team on defense at this time. Some of our younger guys may develop w/more playing time, but for now we have no impact players at LB or EDGE. We could really use a ball-hawking S on the back end as well. We have exactly two players that have to be accounted for on every play, D. Brown, and J.Horn. Mike Jackson has been solid. The other starters would probably be backups on most the upper echelon NFL teams. We really can't expect this team to a Top 10 defense with such a lack of talent. All things considered I've been somewhat impressed with how much better they have played this year. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-points-per-game https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating We are in the top 15 in terms of points allowed per game (22.6) and top 12 in defensive passer rating (88.9). And, we are doing this without a formidable PASS RUSH. Even our rushing defense has improved. We are #16 in rushing yards allowed per game (116) compared to 179 per game last season. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game I wouldn't cry if Evero moved on after the season, but his defense isn't the biggest worry for our team.

I was watching the game on a tablet in the Publix parking lot when a Canales made the decision to go for it on 4th and 1. I thought RGIII was dead on when he said they should call a sneak instead of a hand-off. 1) It was less than a yard 2) We never run Bryce on a sneak (due to his diminutive size) so it probably would have caught them off guard. He opted to hand off. And to make matters worse handed off to Chuba instead of our power back (Dowdle). I LITERALLY KNEW IN MY GUT THAT THE GAME WAS LOST ON THAT PLAY. The game shouldn't have been that close. When you let a team hand round in games like this, things tend to go south a lot of the times. I'm expecting us to miss out on the playoffs now. A win and today and a split with Tampa would've had practically guaranteed us a playoff birth. Watch us finish up at 8-9 instead of 10-7 because of TWO baffling losses to the Saints.

Only the Panthers can beat 3 of the best offensive teams in the NFC league (Dallas, GB, and LA) and still get swept by Saints with a chance to take control of the division.

I'm glad we're up...but I don't think Rico got that ball across the goal line.

Icky is a good player. He deserves to be resigned. BUT, there is NO WAY any knowledgeable football fan believes that Icky is a top 5 player at his position in the NFL. The point of my post was that a guy who may not even be in the top 10 at his position SHOULD NOT RESET the market for Left Tackles just because he's the next guy up to have a contract extension. If he does, then that puts even more financial stress on a team that may have resign a QB to "record deal" in the next year or two. The NFL salary structure is ridiculous. Merit is what is really meaningless. In some cases you don't even have to be that good in the NFL at the top of the NFL pay scale. You just need to be the next in line to get a new deal.

When I see those figures my stomach gets queasy at the thought of Bryce getting a similar deal. I think it would be a wise for the FO to speak to him and his agent before the deadline for 5th year option. If Bryce expects a similar deal prior to his 4th year...or even after his 4th year...Morgan needs to try to work out a trade deal and move him.

The above scenario would be a nightmare for Carolina. It's tough having to make decisions on who to keep and who to let go. You have to look at which position can I spend less on and still get similar production. In our case I think it would be the quarterback position. For most teams with a legitimate franchise QB, that decision would/should be easy. It's hard to replace a guy like Mahomes, Allen, or Stafford in terms of production. Those guys can make any throw and can carry a team on their backs to compensate for the weaker areas of the roster. However, a starting QB who does not produce at an ELITE level and needs the team to carry them is easier to replace than solid LT. I'm not giving Young a 45+ million deal prior to his 4th year at the expense of a solid left tackle when the said QB isn't even a top 10 QB in his own CONFERENCE.

If we somehow won our division and made the playoffs in 2025, I could understand the reasoning behind picking up the 5th year option on Young. However, I would let him know not to expect any renegotiations until the deal expires (end of 2027). If Bryce became crazy productive in year 4 and Carolina returned to the playoffs in 2026, I could understand the reasoning behind giving him a new deal prior to 2027. Under no circumstances would I make him the highest paid QB in the NFL. There is no way I'm letting BY get a deal that is going or "reset the market"...unless we win the SUPER BOWL. If he wants to "reset the market" you let him play out his final year and acquire or draft a QB prior to the 2027 season with the intent to start that person in 2028.

I think Icky was shown steady improvement and really should be entering the prime years of his career that position. He's a first round draft choice that panned out and I think he needs to be resigned. That said, your above formula is correct, but concerning. Icky is Good player and could potentially become great. But, should a 4 year starter at LT that has never been selected for an 1st or 2nd All-Pro team or been selected to a Pro Bowl become receive a new record setting contract and become the highest paid LT in football? We may have to do as you suggested in your post. If he does get that deal, then the financial situation at QB becomes even more concerning. If Young and his agent insist on a contract in line the "QB Market" and you want to retain him you either have to hope he takes a hometown discount (i.e. below market value contract) or have a guy in the wings to replace him when he decides to hit the open market. We still have crucial holes to fill at EDGE, LB, S. It's fun to pretend to be a GM, but in real life we can only imagine how stressful that job really is.

The Saints game is what really concerned me. We were playing a 1-8 at home and they were starting a rookie QB. Bryce played one of the worst games I've seen him play. Those type of performances (and the one in SF last Monday) are why most of us are not on board with extending him, or even picking up the 5th year option.

Your chart confirms what I noticed yesterday. No real success passing the ball in the middle of the field. Everything is pretty much confined to the area outside the numbers and hashmarks. I didn't realize he only completed 2 passes that were 10 yards beyond the LOS until you mentioned it in an earlier post. BTW, where did you get this chart?

Yes sir. And sometimes they'll even have a graph with a distribution of where the ball was thrown: to the left, to the right or over the middle. I feel that I've noticed a trend with Bryce in terms of how he attacks the field. I want to know if the analytics back me up or if I'm just imaging things.

Sometimes after a game one of the Huddlers will post a picture of Bryce's past distribution chart. Where do you get that data? And has anything been posted for yesterdays game?

Actually, that was all me my man. I looked at the YPA numbers in ESPN. Bryce is 6.4 this year, 6.3 last year, and under 6.0 in 2023. I just typed in the wrong number and forgot to average the 3 seasons.

Oops, thanks for catching that. That's even worse news.

Yep. I've known about the importance of Yards/attempt for years but it was nice to see it all summarized in an easy to read format.

I found the below information on the web this morning. It's rather long, but it pretty much sums up Bryce's career (to date) with the Panthers. When he plays well, we play well. When he delivers a typical "Bryce Young Performance" the team struggles. The segment detailing the meaning of a his career YPA completely describes his tenure in Carolina ------ In the modern NFL, anything around 7.5 yards per attempt (YPA) or higher is considered good, and 8.0+ YPA is typically viewed as very good to excellent. YPA Benchmarks (Modern NFL) 6.5 and below — Poor (As of yesterday Young's career mark is 6.4) 6.6 to 7.2 — Below average to average 7.3 to 7.6 — Solid/Good 7.7 to 8.2 — Very good 8.3+ — Excellent / top-tier QB efficiency (Yesterday Young posted a mark of 10.3) Why 7.5+ is “good” League-wide YPA in recent seasons typically sits in the 7.1–7.3 range. So once a quarterback is consistently above ~7.5, he’s operating above league efficiency and generating chunk plays without excessive short passes. What a Sub-6.5 YPA Typically Means 1. Inefficient passing You’re gaining fewer yards per throw than the league norm (~7.1–7.3). This usually correlates with: Fewer explosive plays Struggling to sustain drives Lower scoring offenses YPA is one of the best simple efficiency indicators, so being under 6.5 usually means the passing game isn’t functioning well. 2. Overly conservative passing A low YPA often reflects: Too many checkdowns Short, low-risk throws Not pushing the ball downfield Play calling designed to avoid mistakes rather than gain yards This is common with rookie QBs, backups, or teams with poor pass protection. 3. Difficulty completing intermediate and deep throws Low YPA can mean: The QB isn’t hitting big-play throws Accuracy issues Arm strength limitations Receivers not getting separation 4. Poor supporting structure Sometimes it’s not the QB—low YPA can also result from: Weak offensive line (forcing quick dump-offs) Below-average receivers Predictable or safe play calling Injuries limiting the scheme 5. Usually correlates with losing Historically, teams with <6.5 YPA tend to have: Below-average offensive efficiency Poor 3rd-down conversion Lower points per game Losing records YPA correlates strongly with winning; sub-6.5 teams often finish near the bottom.

I wonder if he'll receive any consideration for COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR. Because of the knee injury, D. Brown practically missed all of the 2024 season.

I still think Brown is not playing his natural position. He seems tailor-made to play the 4-3 NT, and even a 3-technique in some cases. Imagine him playing for Ron Rivera alongside Kwann Short with Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson coming off the edges. His sack totals would go up because he wouldn't be getting most of the attention like he does now.

I've been critical of Brown in the past. I never thought he was a bust. I just felt that to be taken that high in the draft he needed to have a bigger impact in the field, especially in terms of a pass rush in a pass-happy league. He always been good in most games against the run. This year his pass rush has improved. He has a career high 4 sacks this season (which leads the team), and we still have 4 games to go. That sack number is literally 1/3 of his career sack total (12). Even more impressive is the fact that he's having such a great season coming off an season-ending injury in 2024. He (and Horn) are really living up to their draft slot...and that's a good thing for the team and fans alike.