SCO96

26 minutes ago, Captroop said:

Leaf, Sanchez, RGIII, Wentz, Darnold.

One thing for damn sure: You don't trade up for the second best QB in the draft.

A lot of us on the Forum agree with you, but I would guess almost 50% feel like we have to get Wilson, Fields, or Lance THIS YEAR or franchise is forever doomed. All of these guys have question marks.

Fields in from OHIO STATE...nuff said

Wilson has nice numbers, but he really hasn't played against any elite programs from the power 5 conferences. That's not his fault, but it does leave some room for doubt.

Lance didn't even play last year after he opted out of the spring FCS decision.  Here's a link to a good article on him. I'll post a portion of the article below the link.

https://247sports.com/Article/ESPN-Mel-Kiper-Jr-calls-Trey-Lance-most-fascinating-player-in-NFL-Draft-2021-North-Dakota-State-Football-160732511/

ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. believes Lance is one of the most fascinating players in the draft.

"That's the most fascinating player in the draft probably in a long time is Trey Lance because of the circumstances you had to deal with COVID," Kiper said on the latest First Draft podcast. “Only one football game they played. If you go back to that game, whether it was rusty or pressing, he did not throw the ball well. He was 15 of 30 against Central Arkansas, threw the first interception of his career.

As I said, it was 15 of 17 starts he threw the ball 23 times or fewer. You had five games in 2019, 56.5 or less in terms of completion percentage. This is a ultimate leap of faith on talent. If you're taking Trey Lance and you're giving up all that to go up from eight to three to get him if you're Carolina Panthers. I get you're in a division with Atlanta. Matt Ryan can't be there forever. Tampa Bay, Brady not gonna be there forever, and New Orleans is still figuring out Taysom Hill.

“So I get you want to find the quarterback you feel most strongly about. I understand that completely, if it's Trey Lance, great, do it. But Trey Lance, to me, the most difficult and the most fascinating player to evaluate, since I've probably been doing this and I've been doing it for 43 years."

"I think Lance, all these quarterbacks can play right away, but he's got to sit for a year or two. He's 20 years of age. Doesn't turn 21 until early May, arguably the youngest player in this draft...So to me, he's got to sit, watch and learn. You have Teddy Bridgewater will be kind of that bridge to Trey Lance if you go that route."

----

If he's there at 8 I can see taking a chance. But, I'm not giving up several years of high choices to nab him at #2 or #3.

1 hour ago, Hoenheim said:

I'd honestly be worried about our ability to rebuild the oline and reinforce the D trading that many high picks away in two consecutive years.  

That "draft chart' bothers me. It over values the top 5-10 picks in comparison to the other slots. I could see giving up a 1, 3, and 4 in this year's draft to move up 6 spots if you felt Wilson was a sure thing.  Or Maybe a 1,2, and 4. Why on earth do you have to give up a 1 and a 3 in the 2022 draft as well? Well, you have to because the "draft chart" says so.  You have to make sure the other choices add up to the value total of the #2 slot. Maybe...just maybe...that #2 pick ain't worth all that and is actually overpriced.

I vote no.

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If you go strictly by the you don't draft *insert position* from *insert college program*, then Brian Burns isn't a Panther because lord knows there's no shortage of NFL bust pass rushers from FSU.

There are a lot of teams that wish they hadn't rolled their eyes at yet another Jeff Tedford Call QB when Aaron Rodgers was available.

You're right about Florida State pass rushers, but a bust on the D-line won't set you back like a bust at the QB position.

I won't tell you my exact age, but i'm old enough to remember the Bradshaw, Staubach, Stabler era of pro football. Tell me a an exceptional NFL QB out of Ohio State, Alabama, or Penn State since 1980. Outside of Carson Palmer give a good QB out of USC since 1980. If you take away Joe Montana (1979 draft), Notre Dame hasn't had a solid QB in the NFL since Joe Theisman and he played with the Redskins from the mid 70's thru the mid 80's.

You just can't ignore things like that if you plan on drafting your next "Franchise QB", especially if you're willing to give up a boat load of draft choices to get him.

26 minutes ago, Mage said:

Eh maybe if Sewell isn't there but if he is available, you gotta take him.  You just have to, unless a team is offering you a great great deal to move up.

And an elite LT is worth a lot.  If you agree Sewell has the potential to be that, then I don't think you trade down unless you are getting a future 1st (on top of whatever 1st the team trading with you already has) and multiple 2nds in return.

But yes, if Sewell isn't there and Wilson/Lance/Fields are gone, then we should trade down.

On offense the hardest position to fill beside QB is LEFT TACKLE. I think Sewell is more of a sure thing than any of the QB's not named Trevor Lawrence.

I'm still baffled so many people on this board are willing to trade up lose draft choices for Justin Fields.  Fields is product of Ohio State, that alone should disqualify us from taking him in the 1st round. Zach Wilson throws a nice ball. He put up some gaudy numbers. But, I don't think BYU even played a team from a power 5 conference this past season. All the teams I remember seeing on their schedule were from the Sun Belt, Moutain West, Big South, C-USA, conferences. That doesn't mean he won't be any good, but he isn't a sure thing either.

I've always looked at our rebuild as taking 3-4 years to compete for a conference title. I think the world won't end if we continue to build a solid roster and get our future QB in another draft or acquire him thru a trade or free agency.

32 minutes ago, AceBoogie said:

He’s married to a woman with more money than him. He can do that. 

I heard Dak Prescott use that argument as well. Still, I think Brady would take less money even if he wasn't married to a super model. He seems to be obsessed with being the best AND winning titles. He realizes that's a lot more difficult middle and bottom half of the roster is stocked with below average/marginal players.

Russell Wilson will have made $140 million on 3rd contract alone when it expires in 2023. He'll be 35 at that time. Would it ruin his financial future if he decided to take a fully guaranteed deal (ex 3 yr 60-75 million) on the condition that the team use the money to improve the overall roster. Let's be honest, neither he, nor his kids, nor his grandchildren, will ever spend the money that he's already earned.

3 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Exactly. And part of what Russell is probably bitching about(and what Cam and Teddy could bitch about) is the lack of being able to sign or draft quality offensive linemen. We may not be able to pay Moton what he is worth, because you have to make hard choices and great RT's aren't as valuable or hard to find as LT's are.

We signed Matt Kalil to a monstrous contract and he was terrible. We signed a LG to a massive contract(not a position that requires a massive contract). We signed Matt Paradis to a large contract he hasn't lived up to. We traded up to acquire a guy like Little who the rest of the league took a hard pass on.

So it isn't just that you need to go out and spend mega-bucks in free agency. You need to fuging be smart about building an OL. Shrewd free agent acquisitions, SMART drafting, etc. I don't see why every draft you don't take at least 1 OL or DL player. You can't afford to keep everyone around forever(ask the Saints). So if you can crush drafting, pick and choose the guys you pay. 

That doesn't include paying mega-bucks to low positional value players like OG, LB and RB, which we have done the past few years.

11 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

He spent 10 years of his career at between 10-15% cap utilization. He could have gotten more but he also wasn't exactly getting paid peanuts. For the bulk of his career he was the highest paid player on the Pats.

A great QB should be the highest paid player on the team. I think most of us are cool with that, but 51 other players need to get paid as well. NFL rosters are by far the largest in professional sports. 

Just for the heck of it, I decided to add up how much it would cost to have a top paid player at each spot on the Franchise tag chart I posted earlier (QB, DE, WR, LB, CB, OL, DT, S, RB, TE). It would cost you almost approximately $150 million to have one player at each position. Every position listed requires more than one player at that postion on the field at all times except QB, TE, and RB (unless you use a FB a lot).

Last year's cap was just under $200 million. You'd have to pay the other 42 guys with the remaining $50 million. Of course, due to the pandemic, the cap is dropping to 180 million which will make the situation even worse. You literally have to decide on which positions are of most value and hope you cheaply fill the other ones. If you can't find cheap talent in the draft your chances of competing year end and year out for title are pretty slim.

To this day, no QB has one a Super Bowl with a cap hit over $30 million. Yet, owners keep allowing the agents get record deals for their clients every year. They could have stopped this nonsense year ago. When an agent walked in touting his guy while attempting to reset the QB market the owner or GM should have said "Brady is the best QB in the league. I'm not paying anyone more than the makes." End of discussion.

Now, it's become so bad, that people say you have to win a SB with a QB on his rookie deal, because he essentially eats up all the cap on the 2nd contract. That's backwards. You should have a greater chance to win a title as the QB matures and gets better. In the current market conventional wisdom says when the stud QB hits his prime, let's surround him low priced contractual players and hope for the best. Then again, this is the same league that once paid rookie 1st round draft choices (before they had played a down in the league) more than established veterans simply because of the spot they were taken in the draft. 

8 hours ago, Dex said:

Ahem... Go earn your keep Fitterer.

 

I think Russel Wilson is a great QB and seems to be a genuinely nice person. But, I think some of the blame may lie in his court. He's asked for big time money on his last two deals. According to Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/russell-wilson-9885/)

"Russell Wilson signed a 4 year, $140M new money extension with the Seattle Seahawks on April 15, 2019 that included a $65M signing bonus, $107M of total guarantees, and an average annual salary of $35M. At the time of signing this deal was the highest average paid contract, most total guarantees, and biggest signing bonus in NFL history."

In a capped league you can't take up to 20%-30% of the salary cap for one guy (QB), pay the other 51 guys on the active roster, and expect to have depth at every position. It's even harder for Seattle because the team is usually in the playoffs and picking at the end of each round. And, this year they don't even have a 1st round pick. He won't be getting a significant O-line upgrade this year unless the current ones on the roster significantly improve, they find a hidden gem (or gems) in the draft after the 1st round, or find a couple of solid mid-tier Free Agents.

As we Panther fans know, quality offensive lineman don't grow on trees. You are lucky just to find a solid lineman these days (especially LT). Then, after their initial deals you have to pay them. Take a look at the estimated franchise tags for 2021 below.

Wilson's cap figure for 2021 is $32 million. If they paid the current market value for a top O-lineman it's just over $14.5. those two salaries would eat up over 25% of this year's cap space and you'd still have to pay 50 other guys. This year cap is estimated to be $180 million.

https://overthecap.com/franchise-transition-and-rfa-tenders/

2021 Projected Franchise and Transition Tenders

3 minutes ago, PandaMan said:

I finally turned it off with 3 minutes left.  It felt like the Chiefs were sleepwalking through most of the season.  Not being as good as they could be because they knew they could turn it on when they needed to.  Finally ended up biting them in the ass... what a shame.  Missing their two best OT really hurt.

They're talented enough to win without their A-game against most teams. But, most teams don't have a defense as talented as Tampa's. They've got a GREAT PASS RUSH,  a good LB core, and a good secondary and great team speed on the defense in general.

I can't help but wonder if KC will rebound from this. In the early 2000's the Rams appeared to be on the verge of becoming an NFL dynasty and the SB loss to the Pats in 2001 squashed that. We all thought Seattle was on the verge of becoming a dynasty, but their loss to the Pats squashed that. Now, another team QB'd back Tom Terrific has squashed (at least for now) the next NFL dynasty.

With all of the deals they've handed out...and the fact that the salary cap may be going down in 2021, it's going to become harder for the Chiefs to hold on to their players. And, last night's game plan is going to copied by every defensive coordinator in the NFL in 2021. I wouldn't automatically pencil them in as AFC champions next season. The loss last night could possible be "the beginning of the end" for the KC Chiefs potential dynasty.

Just now, TheCasillas said:

They showed Andy Reid and Eric B. is back to back shots and Reid arms were crossed with no playsheet. Eric had the playsheet and was covering his face calling the play. I was like "woah.. Eric is actually calling the plays, that's odd."

I saw this multiple times in the third and fourth quarter.

To be honest, I cut the game off after Mahomes threw the pick in the 3rd quarter while the score was 28-9. I knew the game was over so I bailed. Based on your post, maybe Reid realized the game was a lost cause as well...or felt Eric B could give them a spark. Let's be honest, Reid had some tough days leading up to the Game.

 Thanks for clarifying things.

4 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

Eric was calling the plays last night. Late in the 3rd quarter he 100% was calling the plays.

I'm not saying you are wrong...but...how do you know that's 100% true?

2 minutes ago, SizzleBuzz said:

How does the result last night impact his chances?

It shouldn't affect them at all. From what I've read the thing that's holding him back is the perception that he doesn't do much in KC. Andy Reid calls the plays and deserves all of the credit for the offensive success. If Reid gets the credit for the good performances, then he should get the blame for the poor ones as well.

Bieniemy's perception around the league shouldn't change based on last night's performance in a perfect world. But, if you head over to Pro Football Talk people are already saying that he failed to step up last night while Reid was distracted because of the drama with his son. 

2 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

But that's the thing that they don't seem to be getting. Every single shred of any evidence indicates Watson wants to leave and badly. It's a franchise that let it's previous dipshit coach/GM trade away just about every thing of value in the draft. This is the opportunity to get the franchise back on track for rebuilding. 

If they fug this up, they will be in the cellar of the NFL for a long, long time. 

I agree with what you posted. That's why I was surprised Watson signed that huge extension prior to the 2020 season.  The bad front office moves were known before new deal.   As a 1st round pick in 2017, he'd be entering the last year of his deal this season and could walk at season's end unless he was franchised. I'd love to see him succeed elsewhere, but since he's only one year into his new contract I can see why Houston is unwilling (at the present time anyway) to trade him.

47 minutes ago, Scott12345 said:

read that they have 6 DBs from the last 3 drafts

think about that before you idiots want to trade away all our draft picks

I'd give this post two thumb up if I could. Teams win SB's...not just quarterbacks. Before the Super Bowl Brady said the game wasn't about him, it was about the Tampa Bay team. That Tampa roster is stacked and much better top to bottom than the Chiefs. If you remember, we almost beat those guys at Arrowhead this year.

We need to build more depth to compete. Giving up all of our high draft choices for a QB isn't the way win a title. We need more talent...along with a QB get back to the Super Bowl.

As great as Brady IS...in his last two Super Bowls his defenses have given up a total of 12 points. Let that sink in. It's a lot easier to win when 10 pts is enough to beat the opposition in his last two title games.

Shout out to Brian Flores and Todd Bowles.

2 hours ago, Scott12345 said:

#8 & a late rounder was a reasonable offer

I agree. I may have even been willing give up higher choices (like a 3 and 6, or 4 and 7). 

Stafford is going to be better than any rookie coming directly out of college. We'd still have our #2; and our #3 or #4 depending on which package was more acceptable to the Lions. After 2021, all of their compensation would be received.

The Rams gave up a #3 in this years draft in addition to their first round choices in 2022 and 2022. Their highest draft pick for 2021 is a #2. They don't have a  #1 for this year (I think it's because of the Jalen Ramsey deal with Jacksonville).

There's no way the Panther could've afforded to give up #1 choices in 2 consecutive years (2022 and 2023) and their 2nd highest draft choice in 2021, which would have been a 2nd round pick. I think their offer was reasonable. I'm glad the Rams are getting fleeced instead of the Panthers.

3 minutes ago, pantherfan4life17 said:

I Don't care who we get to play qb its not going to matter one single solitary bit unless and until we fix that very very lackluster and substandard offensive line and secondary...you could have a five star type player play qb for us and if that offensive line and secondary aren't top flight its not going to matter one bit ...

Good point. A-Rod is an elite QB statistically, but he always seems to fall short in the playoffs. How come? The Packers are weak in other areas (secondary/pass rush) and it becomes quite apparent in big games. Russel Wilson can't seem to make it back to the big game either...for pretty much the same reason. I'd rather see us solidify are roster with theses high draft choices. I don't think we need to reach for any of these guys after Lawrence. If we don't get one in the first round, there's always next year and even later in this draft. 

Welcome to the Huddle rookie. I'm gonna upvote your first post with a beer!

I have no interest in Justin Fields. He seems poised to continue the long line of NFL busts that tend to come out of Ohio State. I hope he comes off the board early so we can put any talk about taking him to rest.  I just hope we don't decide to trade up to nab him. 

Stafford would be a definite upgrade over Bridgewater but I can't see giving up the #8 pick for him. If we were only a QB away from contending for a NFC title, then I might consider it. We've got too many holes. I'm not even sure I'd give up the 40th pick form him, but I wouldn't rule that out as an option. If they'd take a 3rd round pick in the 2021 and 2022 draft or a 3rd and 4th in this year's draft I'd be all for it. I tend to think the Lions are gonna want more than the Panthers are willing to offer. Once Stafford leaves they'll be in a full rebuilding mode and are going to want some serious compensation to speed up the rebuilding process.

21 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Take those players that have made it from later rounds and divide by the number of players drafted. Do the same for the first round.  Your chances are exponentially higher in the first. 
 

I think most of us on the board agree with the above statement. Still, I can't help but think that there are other quarterbacks who have never been given a fair shot to earn a starting job in the NFL. We all know of cases were players at other positions are drafted in the middle/later rounds and have become pro-bowl or even all-pro players. A late round QB is usually viewed as no more than a backup. A guy drafted in the 1st (or 2nd) round is always going to get the benefit of the doubt over the guy drafted later because the team has more invested in him. He's going to get more reps in practice and more time to prove himself before being pulled.  

Most teams aren't willing to give up on a highly drafted QB after 1-2 seasons. The early releases of Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins are a couple of exceptions, but even then neither of those guys was drafted by the HC who released them.

Thank you for posting this. Your chart points out that 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 were really bad years to find your "franchise QB" in the first round. When I get the time I'm going to take a look at the other QB's in those classes just to see how they panned out or if any are still in the NFL

Your data does show that the higher a QB is drafted the more likely he is to have success. Still, QB evaluation is an inexact science. As someone noted at this time Brady, Wilson, Cousins, (and I'd add Dak Prescott to the list) are quality QB's and none of them were drafted before 3rd round.  Kurt Warner is in the Hall of Fame. He was undrafted and had to spend time in inferior leagues before he was given a shot. Tony Romo had a respectable career and he was also undrafted.  I think that's a reflection on the scouting process and not the players themselves. And sometimes the amount of fight and desire (which is immeasurable) you have inside overcomes any physical limitations a player might have. 

1 minute ago, Panther Believer said:

I rarely say that, I have watched extensive film on every 1st round prospect for the past 3 years. I know saying someone is a sure fire baller is bold, but this guy is a freak and isn't some type of tweener athlete like Simmons who everyone on this board wanted last year. Just hold me to it and I'll eat crow if I'm wrong, never scared to.

I haven't watched enough NCAA football to know who the top LBs are for the 2021 draft so I can't argue with you. I am willing to say that sometimes one guy can make a difference. If this guy turns out to impact games like Jack Lamber or Ray Lewis I think we could all live with that.

I admire your willingness to stand by your opinion. Some of us on the forum have experienced some push back when we say we're not sold on any of the QB's in the draft after Lawrence comes off the board at number 1. I know Teddy definitely isn't our franchise QB for the 20's, but I'm not sure Fields, Lance, or Wilson is the answer either. I wouldn't be devastated if they were all gone by the time we're on the clock because I don't think the fate of the franchise rest on getting a QB in the top 8 of this particular draft.

2 hours ago, pantherj said:

If the bpa at 8 is a Lb then you look for a trade partner. We already have an expensive 1st pick LB with great athleticism. You don't win today collecting top quality LBs. They don't effect the game enough to matter, the ball is tossed over their head down field, and to make matters worse Parsons is not good at defending the pass, so we'd get wrecked. No more bad decisions. We need to build up our passing attack in the draft until we are a dominant passing team. A LB can be added later in the draft if needed (P.S not needed).

Good points. The Chiefs won the SB last year and may be back in February if they handle the Bills this week. Quick Question...can anyone here name any of their starting linebackers?

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-career-int-by-a-linebacker#:~:text=Don Shinnick has made the,a linebacker%2C with 37 interceptions.

The above link takes you to an interesting list of LB's with the most interceptions in NFL history. The first nine of the list recorded 28 or more regular season INT's which is more than the best CB we've drafted (Chris Gamble...he retired with 27). If you could guarantee me that a LB would retire with 30 INT's (something only 6 have ever done) if we took him at 8, then  I "might" consider taking him. That's more than Darrell Revis had in his career (29). But, as you pointed out Parsons doesn't excel at that.

If a QB isn't there at 8 things could get interesting. I see the logic in trading back to accumulate picks, but that could backfire if we miss out on a guy we're targeting. If we don't trade back I'm assuming we'd take a CB, O-lineman, or pass rusher (interior or edge) to pair with Brown and Burns. 

When Brees was in his prime, Saints defense was unable to hold up and it cost them several times in the post season.  When the Saints defense got good, Brees wasn't able to make plays down the stretch to win the game. No way would I expect him to lose his final 3 playoff games at home to teams they were favored to beat.

After watching that game, Drew clearly can't throw downfield anymore. They were down with less than 5 minutes to play and the Saints were running the ball on first and second down. I don't think he threw a pass more than 20 yards downfield. Now, he walks off the field for probably for the last time...knowing that his last two passes in the NFL were interceptions at home against a team they really should have beat. Without the benefit of the 4 turnover (3 Int's by Brees and a fumble) Tampa would have lost this game.

During that 6 year stretch from 2008-2013 you could make an strong argument that he was the best QB in football. He had a great run. I'm sure he'll be ok in retirement.