kass
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Posts posted by kass
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1 hour ago, stirs said:
Just want to point out that, 11 european countries identified with "accelerated" transmission in the article. None of them is represented in the cart.
For now. When they have opened up and the tourism started, it might change.
And from my observation yesterday, Sweden might continue to have a high number of new cases for a while because the social distancing is getting a lot worse. Today the train was full to a third or almost half, compared to being almost totally empty for months. But it's hard to say, the pandemic has not really hit my region, if comparing to Stockholm.
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1 hour ago, Tbe said:
Where is Sweden on that chart?
I think Sweden looked at the chart, thought it was stupid and dropped out of it. Or maybe it just doesn't include countries who run a New Public Management healthcare system.
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11 minutes ago, Wes21 said:
I just wish each country was apples to apples, so we could really compare what's going on. You have a few countries flat out lying about their cases and deaths they are reporting, but just importantly you have countries who are barely testing. Its like the countries who are testing the most and reporting accurately are being viewed as the bad guys in all of this, when it should be the other way around.
Agree. Here the talk has been about the number of ICU patients, hospital parients and the number of deaths. And not about the confirmed number of cases.
Sweden has a big problem with the testing. In the beginning there was not enough material because it was used when the initial tracing was done on people visiting Italy and Austria.
Seems like they actually succeeded to contain that spread. The strains that has affected most people has its origin from Britain and France. (Some from the US.)
Then there was a shortage of testing material when the whole world tried to buy whatever was on the market.
Now there is a laboratory capacity of 100k per week but the regions (states) who are responsible for the health care only do about 28-32k tests. Utterly failure.
People mentioned age of the dead. Sweden currently 4350 reported deaths.
0-9 1 infant
10-19 0 people.
20-29 0,2% (8)
30-39 0,3% (12)
40-49 1% (42)
50-59 3% (132)
60-69 7% (303)
70-79 22% (955)
80-89 41% (1789)
90+ 25% (1108)
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On 5/28/2020 at 9:15 PM, 45catfan said:
A survey? I wonder how accurate a survey can be? Who did they survey, the health clinics or people themselves? Either way, that's a horrible measure of people who have the antibodies because they are probably going off of submitted tests results. As mentioned previously, if people don't know they are sick, why would they take a COVID-19 test? Typically they don't.
The only way we will ever get a true measure is if the government sends out saliva kit and people return it like they would a census form in the mail and hopefully get 90%+ compliance. Anything less is sticking your finger in the wind and taking an educated guess, but a guess no less.
Blood samples are collected from laboratories in clinical chemistry and clinical immunology in nine regions:
It might not be a representative sample and the method are supposed to be updated. 1200 test. Next week new results will be published.
A few weeks ago they published the result of a study, performed something similar to what you suggested. Think 4000 people was tested. Showing 2,5% had antibodies. Not sure exactly what time period it was suppose to represent.
In my region, the death toll is not that high. Our antibodies result was 4.2%. We have about half of the death per capita that Denmark/Copenhagen has. They are just next to.
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On 5/28/2020 at 8:46 PM, Brooklyn 3.0 said:
Sweden has the highest coronavirus death rate in the world – and it’s getting even worse
Incorrect. Sweden had the highest REPORTED death rate per capita for one random selected period of time.
The curve is going down but slow. So the death toll keeps pilling up and Sweden will soon pass France and have the fifth highest death per capita.
On 5/28/2020 at 8:46 PM, Brooklyn 3.0 said:Sweden adopted a 'herd immunity' plan that uses more relaxed measures to control coronavirus, but a survey by the government found only 7.3 percent of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease by late April.
The 7.3% can only be described as a failure. Sure it represent the situation in early or mid April so todays number is higher, but certainly not as high as expected. Could it be that people are better at social distancing than expected? Either way, nursing homes and elderly care has failed miserably and their systematic failure has shorten the life of the elderly.
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9 minutes ago, 4Corners said:
You ever seen a comic con? There are dudes walking around those things in their 50s that have never actually touched a vagina.
Atleast they are trying. They stick to their plan and that's the kind of commitment we want. Keep on trying even if you fail initially, until you succeed and the reward will be glorious.
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16 minutes ago, Wes21 said:
It's a good idea, but it's not apples to apples. Go back and look at how New York was turning away people who went tot he hospital, and how the shutdown of other types of access to medicine has led to deaths not directly COVID.
Could and should of course be done per state.
Was it such a big problem it could show up and potentially add thousands of cases? Was it for the whole NY or just NYC?
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16 minutes ago, kass said:
And does any state provide statistics regarding the day of death.
When I have tried to find information, all I find is hmm.. "today's report is x new deaths" but it doesn't say when the people actually died.
Found it. And yes, good statistics. Even death date. And no covid deaths where some of my relatives live.
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4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:
Colorado has actually been one of the more transparent states in terms of numbers. We're actually dividing our numbers between deaths "caused by COVID" and deaths "with COVID" that weren't necessarily a direct result of COVID.
Any comparison against normal death toll? To see if there is excessive number of deaths compared to other years?
And does any state provide statistics regarding the day of death.
When I have tried to find information, all I find is hmm.. "today's report is x new deaths" but it doesn't say when the people actually died.
Sorry for directing this to you, but if Colorado have good numbers maybe I will take a look at whatever website they use to publish this.
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8 minutes ago, CaliPanthers said:
Within a week, local Montezuma County Coroner George Deavers determined Yellow had died of acute alcohol poisoning, his blood alcohol measured at .55, nearly twice the lethal limit.
“It was almost double what the minimum lethal amount was in the state”, said Deavers, during an interview with CBS4.
But Deavers said that before he even signed the death certificate, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment had already categorized Yellow’s death as being due to COVID-19 and it was tabulated that way on the state’s website.
“I can see no reason for this”, said Deavers.
Yellow’s death is the latest in Colorado raising eyebrows over the way the CDPHE is reclassifying deaths that runs contrary to what doctors and coroners initially ruled.
Last month, a CBS4 Investigation revealed the state health department reclassified three deaths at a Centennial nursing home as COVID-19 deaths, despite the fact attending physicians ruled all three were not related to coronavirus.
And this case would be representative of and show what? So how many of these 100.000 deaths are over reporting?
The over or under reporting is very easily proven by comparing the death toll 2020 with a combination of let's say, the last five years and see if there is any spikes in dead people.
Wait, didn't NY Times already do this kind of experiment...
Conclusion, under reporting...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
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43 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:
Seems legit
Original reporting.
Daily Mail cover this information in one article, if you want it in english and dont mind it coming from a piece of poo paper.
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22 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:
Seems legit
Well, yeah you are right. It does. But still no cited sources so would be great to find the original reporting.
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4 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:
Well, this is very significant if true...
So, have anyone seen these news being reported from any credible news media?
I ask because this is the second time I see something similiar about this specific topic. Both from a news source I never heard of before.
And according to this article, German intelligence, reported in German media... but they don't provide a link or even name any of these German news media.
Well, atleast it is not only a twitter post.
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Update about Stockholm, Sweden.
A very small anti body study was revealed today. Test on blood from donors.
11 of 100 people tested positive for antibodies. Test conducted last week, +2 week for being healthy before donate = the result reflect status ~3 weeks ago. Sensitivity 70-80%, and other details, blah blah...
Conclusion according to experts is that ~30% of people in Stockholm could already have been infected.
The day with most deaths is the 8 of April and its seems the curve is flattening even when accounting for delayed reporting. So things are getting better. Tomorrow there will be a bump because of the weekend.
But I think the grey in this chart, the projection is taking the delayed weekend's into account. But its from random programmer dude, but the other colors is official data.
Is there any antibody study done on New York? Is the curve flattening there also?
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24 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:
Sweden is going to be a very interesting case study on how to handle this. If their numbers don't explode over the coming weeks then maybe other countries need to use their approach as a guideline.
Today one agency announced that they will look into the numbers and secure the data. They did do a quick dive into it, saying it looked about right but now they will go through every case again.
Hopefully a few other countries also are up to the task.
I tried to find the numbers for the US but it's a jungle. I couldn't find any data that included when the person actually died. There are alot of delayed reporting so it's hard to predict trends.
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Schools are still open in Sweden and the number of children died with or because Covid-19 is...
"Infants" 0
0-10 year olds: O
10-20 year olds: 4
20-30: 4
Our outbreak is still merely concentrated around Stockholm and some eastern and middle regions of Sweden also have a notable number if cases.
If open schools would have this severe impact, shouldn't the rest of Sweden then also have an explosion of new cases.
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56 minutes ago, Icege said:
You're protesting against the method in which data was collected specifically for Sweden and not all countries. You're trying to differentiate between apples and oranges when we're discussing fruits.
You're more than welcome to prefer to listen to whatever echos inside your chamber while questioning my intelligence. By the way... was the math incorrect? Certainly if I'm not bright enough for this discussion I should have my math checked... right?
As for the Swedish population: Population of Sweden
What did I put down again? Oh yea...
Population of Sweden: 10.23M
Swedish COVID-19 cases: 9,141
Deaths: 793
Percentage of infected: 0.09%
Death rate: 8.7%Because I am Swedish, I use Sweden as an example. Maybe that was too hard to figure out...
I watch the daily joint briefing from the Swedish Health agencies and therefore know the flaws about the testing in Sweden because they have mentioned it so many times. So that is my "echo". I don't have any own take of this.
Go read the answer on this question.
How many people are ill from COVID-19 in Sweden?You could also check this out, the news report about the 2,5% infected in Stockholm from the study they started doing 2 weeks ago.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ny-studie-2-5-av-stockholmarna-bar-pa-viruset
nr1 / nr2 = result. You want credit for knowing basic division in mathematics? Really?
How old are you? You still attend elementary school?
You point to Google Search for finding out the population of Sweden. Hahahahaha. Ok. That was funny.
Here you go -> https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/befolkning/befolkningens-sammansattning/befolkningsstatistik/If you want any information or material about Covid 19 and Sweden, just tell me and I will get it for you. You don't seem to be able to collect it yourself. Tell me and I send a message with the links and some tips.
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44 minutes ago, Icege said:
If you're entire basis is that the data is not exactly correct, then you are going to be denying every data set released during this pandemic as there is no way to determine the exact numbers in all of this (plus, what about countries like the US that did not make testing widely available early on? Or China and their likely fudged numbers?). Are those numbers for Sweden not what was being presented by the WHO yesterday?
Seeing as the math is correct as well as the method, I stand by my assessment.
My basis is that the data set are not comparable because they are collected with different methods. So you measure apples and oranges.
I dont think you are bright enough for this discussion. I prefer listen to experts rather than a self proclaimed epidemic amateur expert on a football forum.
"Seeing as my match is correct"... You have one number and you divide it by another number. Is that the expertise you bring to the table? Is it even possible to f that u?
By the way, your number for the Swedish population is wrong so yeah, you didn't even use an updated data set. Embarrassing.
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1 hour ago, Icege said:
The data was pulled via simple OSINT. Percentage of the population infected is the total amount of cases for the country divided by the population. The death rate was calculated by dividing the amount of deaths by the amount of cases.
What exactly is wrong with the math and the method there?
The data is flawed. Countries use test different. In Sweden, for example, there have not been any extensive testing and there won't be either. So the numbers do not reflect how many that has had the virus. It's a tip of the iceberg.
In the beginning the swedish number could more or less be stated as people that have been so sick that they had to go to the hospital. Then they got tested. People that have had mild symptoms have been ordered to stay home in quarantine and we have not been tested. I had to stay home for more than 2,5 week and if it was corona, a cold or mild influenza, I dont really know.
Now a little later some personal on hospitals has been tested but as stated. They say there won't be any masstesting on the general population.
Yesterday they mentioned that they had done a randomised study to find out how many that was sick in the Stockholm area (1-2million people depending city or region). So about 773 people was tested and 2,5% had the virus at that time of testing. That was more than a week ago. Now they think 5-10% might have it actively. There will be some models published later today and I hope it also includes numbers regarding people who did have the virus but do not have it actively. I can link to it later if you want.
Anyway, that random test show that alot more than ~9000 has been infected. And let me include this.
Next week a similar study will be done across the whole country. I think they said 4000 people was suppose to be tested.
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6 hours ago, Icege said:
No thank you on the Swedish model.
Data below:
Population of Sweden: 10.23M
Swedish COVID-19 cases: 9,141
Deaths: 793
Percentage of infected: 0.09%
Death rate: 8.7%Population of US: 327.2M
USA COVID-19 cases: 434,861
Deaths: 14,814
Percentage of infected: 0.13%
Death rate: 3.4%Population of Italy: 60.36M
Italian COVID-19 cases: 139,422
Deaths: 17,669
Percentage of infected: 0.2%
Death rate: 12.7%Population of South Korea: 51.47M
SK COVID-19 cases: 10,423
Deaths: 204
Percentage of infected: 0.02%
Death rate: 2%Population of Germany: 83.02M
German COVID-19 cases: 113,296
Deaths: 2,280
Percentage of infected: 0.14%
Death rate: 2%Population of New Zealand: 4.794M
NZ COVID-19 cases: 1,239
Deaths: 1
Percentage of infected: 0.03%
Death rate: 0.08%Best-to-Worst Infection Rates:
1. South Korea
2. New Zealand
3. Sweden
4. USA
5. Germany
6. Italy
Best-to-Worst Death Rates:
1. New Zealand
2. Germany/South Korea
4. USA
5. Sweden
6. ItalyI'd much rather we had followed South Korea's model, but that required early and frequent testing which the administration went out of their way to prevent. New Zealand is worth looking into, despite being a remote island nation. Australia has similar percentages, and both nations are closer to the epicenter of the pandemic.
Did you calculate the % of infected and deaths, yourself?
Because those numbers you have there, it would be comparing apple's and oranges or something.
About the Swedish numbers:
The % of infected is not accurate because its mostly only people whom are getting hospital treatment that is being tested. People who aren't so sick that they need treatment are urged to stay home for self treatment. And people follow that advice.
And the death number can not be used to see how well the healthcare system is treating people, because not all people end up at ICU or the hospital before dying.
And there is still an overcapacity of ICU so the healthcare system has not been overrun but we will see in 2-3 weeks for Stockholm and then 5-6 weeks for the rest of the country.
About social distancing. People stay at home for the most part voluntarily. The ones that keep insisting of going out for no reason, yeah, that seems to be the old people. The one that really should stay home. Makes me a little mad.
I took the train two days last week because of work. About 5 people on the train. Normally we are talking about 100-200 people. This morning my twin traveled on the train, normally there is 450 people on that train, barely anyone. He sat alone in one of the six carts.
I think our unemployment numbers are reaching 9-10%. And they predict that our GDP could take a big hit of maybe minus 4%. But some say it could be as bad as 8%.
Corona Virus
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Yeah I know. Heard it all. Every morning I wake up surprised that I made it to live for another day.