SCO96

3 hours ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

Totally agree.  The whole time I watched the SB I could not help but think exactly this.  However, @MHS831pointed out.  There are some good prospects in round 2.  As long as we don't wait for day three to come before we choose a OT.  I think we'll be ok. 

I don't doubt you can find some good interior lineman later in the draft. We need an good-great LT to hold things down for the next several year no matter who is behind center. They are a lot harder to find than Centers or Guards. The analyst are also saying that this is a very deep draft for receivers. I know we can find a quality WR later in the draft.

 I'm in agreement with everyone who says we need to take Sewell or Slater if they are available.  I can see the reasoning for Pitts b/c he's such a freak of nature as a TE/WR. If he lives up to his potential I think we'd all be pleased with the selection. No way, would I use pick #8 for one of the receivers in this draft with all of our needs.

15 minutes ago, bythenbrs said:

Billy Kilmer.  SF to Redskins.  He really wasn’t a bust in SF, actually played as much half back as QB in their ‘wildcat’ offense but he didn’t really elevate his game until after he was traded to Washington.  He blossomed under HC George Allen.  

Sometimes a change of venue and coaching DOES make a difference.

That last line sums it up.

I mentioned Kilmer in one of my post. He's far from an all-time great, but I don't think he ever had a losing season while he was with the Redskins...oops...WTF...and He had them in the playoff hunt year in and year out. His HC, George Allen, NEVER coached a losing team in the NFL. The Redskins were no joke back in the 70's.

You have to be "old school" like me to remember Billy Kilmer ...and I don't even remember him as the Redskin starter. When I really got into the NFL he was being phased out in favor of Joe Theisman 

9 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

It would be a much shorter list than if you did one with 2nd-7th round qbs.

No doubt.

Fortunately the teams that drafted them didn't have as much invested in them so when they failed it didn't set them back as much in terms of money and the overall success of the franchise.

5 minutes ago, frankw said:

I'm all for optimism but it's not exactly very encouraging if you have to go back to the disco era or even further to find examples to validate the narrative.

I think the narrative that you have to draft a QB in the 1st round to win a Super bowl is causing some people to lose perspective. 

I'd love to see a thread to see a thread "How many QB's drafted in the 1st round have turned out to be busts? Or, how about this one "How many 1st round QB's never won a Super Bowl". We'd be here all day, possibly weekend, putting that list together.

27 minutes ago, GoobyPls said:

You know your making his point for him. Your naming guys who played when the majority of today’s players weren’t even alive.

 

Most of the guys you named wouldn’t fit OP criteria. Unitas was like 9th round pick or something like that, Warner wasn’t even drafted. Your just naming names at this point.

I'm not just naming names. I answered his challenge posed in the post.

The original post was What are some examples of QBs who were once considered huge busts, but revived their career on another team?.

I named 9 guys who won SB's after being discarded by their original teams, Five of whom (Unitas, Dawson, Young, Favre, and Warner) are in the Hall of Fame. Plunkett won't make the Hall, but he was 2-0 in Super Bowl games. Drew Brees is a lock to make the HoF  and is in fact the 10th guy to win a SB with his 2nd team. I don't see how I overlooked him in the first place.

Ron Jarworski and Rich Gannon took their teams to SB births during their MVP seasons.

Sonny Jurgenson was the all-time passer when he retired.

A question was posed on the board and I named at least 15 guys who would qualify.

I wouldn't have made the Darnold deal, but I am hoping to see if he can have a rebound in Carolina... and it's not like this deal with set us back for years if he bombs.

33 minutes ago, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

All I'm getting from this thread are like 6 cases in half a century (Jim Plunkett). That's literally the half of the NFL's existence. Outlook is not so good!

Not True. I can name 9 guys who won Super Bowls with their 2nd teams after failing with the team that drafted them/signed them out of college.

John Unitas, Len Dawson, Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer,  Kurt Warner.

That's just Super Bowl winners. Other guys have moved to other teams and performed well if you look at the entire history of the league.

Sonny Jurgenson was booed out of Philadelphia and traded to a division rival in Washington. By the end of his career he was a Hall of Fame QB.

His successor in Washington, Billy Kilmer, joined the team after several unaccomplished years with Saints early in his career. The Redskins never won a title with him in the 1970's, but they were  perennial playoff team/playoff threat the entire decade and made the Super bowl in 1972 (where the were actually the favorite against the undefeated Miami 14-0 team...can you believe that?)

Rich Gannon won an MVP years with his 3rd team  (the Raiders) years after being drafted. Ron Jaworki won an MVP with his 2nd team in 1980 and took his team to a Super Bowl that year.

We are all familiar with how Brees flourished in New Orleans under Sean Payton. Jake Delhomme took us the playoffs 3 times and almost won a Super Bowl.  Tannehill has flourished with the Titans after getting away from Gase.

You can even throw Doug Flutie (Heisman Winner) into this mix. He was considered a flop when he came to the NFL. He had to leave the league to play in the CFL for years. When he came back to the NFL he was more than serviceable for years with several teams.

No one is saying that Darnold is the ultimate answer to our QB question in Carolina. But, it is "possible" that he can turn his career around. We didn't give up a lot to get him. We're surrounding him with a stronger supporting cast than he had in NY. All of the guys I mentioned above were a lot older than 23 when they hit their stride in the NFL. Let's see how things pan out. If they don't we can get a QB after the 2021 season.

Jim Plunkett.

He won the Heisman Trophy at Stanford in 1970. He went to a pretty poor Patriot team and played there from 1970-1975. He was traded to the 49ers and played there for two season (1976-1977).

He ended up with the Raiders in 1978 but saw no significant playing time until Dan Pastorini got hurt in 1980 and Plunkett finished out the season. The Raiders won the Super Bowl that year. They won it again in 1983 against a Redskin team that at the time was the highest scoring team in league history.

His career win mark was only 72-72, but he was 8-2 in playoff games.

PS...Plunkett (1970) and Roger Staubach (1963) are the only two Heisman QB's to win Super bowls. In fact, until Mayfield and Jackson played each other last year on a MNF game, the only other time it had ever happened was a 1977 game between the Cowboys and 49ers.

1 minute ago, GoobyPls said:

In today’s nfl you can, you names guys who played 50 years ago. And for every guy you named I can name two SB winners who were drafted by the team they won with. And it’s not just SB it’s league mvps, all pro players pro bowls.

So were Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith, matter of fact Geno had a worse team. Baker was drafted by historically the worst team in nfl history he went on to break rookie records.

Most QB's who win SB's do so with the teams that drafted them. No one disputes that. I just gave you examples of 10 guys who did win with teams that didn't draft them. It doesn't matter when they played. They were reclamation projects that excelled when put in more favorable circumstances. 

Too many people feel like we had to get a franchise QB out of the 2021 draft. QB's come out of college every year. If any rookie QB is to succeed they need solid teams around them. That's hard to accomplish when you have to trade away multiple first round selections and other high draft choices for one player (who isn't lock to succeed in the first place). 

If we nail this draft this team should be a lot better in 2021. which helps Darnold. I hope he does well here. If he doesn't pan out, whoever we draft down the road, acquire via FA, or trade, is going to join a much better team than the one Rhule inherited in 2020 and be in a position to flourish.

25 minutes ago, GoobyPls said:

And teams that sign castoff end up in nfl purgatory with 5-11 record lingering around being irrelevant never finding a true franchise QB

You can't judge a QB by his inability to win at his 1st NFL destination. The following championship QBs all won at later destinations after being cut/released or traded early in their career:

John Unitas, Len Dawson, Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer,  Kurt Warner.

Five of those guys are in the Hall of Fame. You can make an argument that Jim Plunkett should be. 

QB's don't win Super Bowls. Teams do. All of the above entered the league in less than optimal circumstances. After being given an opportunity with better organizations/teams they were able to excel.

Sam Darnold came out of college and joined a franchise that hasn't been to a Super Bowl in 5 decades. Let's see how he does in a new environment before we label him an unsuccessful castoff. 

18 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

You're not accounting for trade ups though.

You are correct sir. I didn't address those possibilities in this post. I actually discussed the trade-up possibilities in another thread I started minutes after I posted this.

3 minutes ago, Trainwreck said:

Denver or Patriots will probably trade up for the 4th pick. Don’t count out Chicago. 

I think it would likely be Denver. Atlanta would only have to move down 5 spots. They would be able to pick up an extra #1 for 2022 and still pick in the top 10 in 2021. New England (#15) and Chicago (#20) have much lower picks. But, you're right. They would be in play if Denver didn't make a move up to #4. 

1 minute ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

The problem is, that every team from 4 to 7 have the potential to trade back.  1 - 3 are for sure taking a QB and the possibility of two QBs falling to 8 but someone is going to convince 4 thru 7 to trade down.

 

I agree.

This means an awfully good non-QB player will likely fall to us at #8. We can still draft a QB if one is available, choose a blue chip player at another position (LT, TE, CB, etc), or trade down a few slots  and acquire a second 1st round pick for the 2022 draft.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. New York Jets
3. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans)
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia Eagles)
7. Detroit Lions
8. Carolina Panthers
9. Denver Broncos
10. Dallas Cowboys

Take a look at the draft order. We know which two QB's are going #1 and #2. SF is taking a QB @ #3 (we just don't know which one). If Atlanta stays @ #4 and decides to pass on QB things will get really interesting. That would leave two of the top five QB prospects on the board @ #5.

The Bengals aren't taking a QB @5.  If the Dolphins feel Tua is their guy, I can't see them taking a QB @6.  I seriously doubt the Lions take one @ 7 since they just acquired Goff from the Rams. Two of the top 5 QB's could very well be in play when we come up at #8 if no trades occur between now and draft night.

But, Atlanta is supposedly open to trading down from #4, which indicates that don't feel they need to get a replacement for Matt Ryan in the this draft.  I could see them moving behind us to #9 if Denver (who may want to upgrade from Drew Lock) came with the right offer. That would leave one of the top 5 prospects on the board at pick #5. If a team thought we wanted that guy, somebody could make an offer to the Bengals, Dolphins, or Lions to leap ahead of us and grab him.  That wouldn't hurt as much now that we have Darnold. It could also result in a couple of high prospects falling into out lap @ #8. We'd almost be assured of getting one of the two best tackles in the draft or possibly the TE Pitts. 

Here's another tantalizing possibility. What do we do if one of the top five QB's drops to 8 and we're offered a #1 (and possibly a couple of more draft choices) in the 2022 draft to move back? We could keep the pick and draft a QB to develop...or move down in round one and actually pick up a higher draft choice than the #2 we gave up for Sam Darnold in 2022.

A big portion of how draft night goes from this point on could very well hinge on what our most bitter rival decides to do with the fourth pick in the 2021 draft.

53 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Relevant to this discussion...

I know some folks are still hoping that one of the top quarterbacks drops to the 8th pick. But the closer we get to the Draft, the more that sounds like a long shot.

We already know who's going one and two. Not sure what SF does at 3. I could see them taking Jones, Fields, or Lance. That leaves 2 of the top 5 on the board when the Falcon's pick (#4) comes up. "If they don't go QB" which is possible if they still have faith in Ryan, then those two QB's could still be on the board for pick 5.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. New York Jets
3. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans)
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia Eagles)
7. Detroit Lions
8. Carolina Panthers
9. Denver Broncos
10. Dallas Cowboys

The Bengals aren't taking a QB @5 and. If the Dolphins feel Tua is their guy, I can't see them taking a QB @6.  I seriously doubt the Lions take one @ 7 since they just acquired Goff from the Rams. Two of the top 5 QB's could very well be in play when we come up at #8.

I wasn't big on Darnold coming out, but I will admit that was partially due to my anti-USC QB bias. That said, even I realized he had enough physical tools make it in the NFL. 

He's had to carry quite a few burdens since leaving USC. 

1) Stigma of USC QB's

2) Pressure of being a highly drafted as a franchise QB

3) Going to one of the worst run franchises in the NFL 

4) Playing on what has been one of the least talented teams in the NFL for the past few years

5) Doing it all under the NY spotlight.

Now he's going to a team that he knows actually want him has to make him feel appreciated and more determined to prove his critics wrong. He has solid weapons around him at the skill positions. Carolina had a strong draft last year and we're positioned to do so again in 2021. He's going to get better coaching. He should be better from the change in scenery alone. Add in the fact that Carolina really doesn't receive a lot of media coverage , which should take away a lot of the stress of being in the NY spotlight, Darnold could be poised to have a breakout year.

I don't know if I would have had the nerve to make the move. But, we didn't give the up the house to get him, which is what we would have had to do to move up 4 or 5 spots to grab the more heralded QB's (none of whom are a lock for success in the NFL in the first couple of seasons).

Darnold is only 23. He has time to improve. Worse case scenario we continue to build a solid team on both sides of the ball cut bait with him in 2 years when the contract expires and find a franchise QB via the draft or free agency. 

I hate that we gave up a 2nd round pick in 2022. I would feel better if it were a 3rd choice. That said, unless he gets hurt, he should at least beat Teddy's career high TD mark of 15 last year. He threw for 17 and 19 TD's during his first two seasons. Last year he only had 11, but he missed 4 games and played on what was clearly the worst/2nd worst team in the league.

i'm pulling for him...even if he possibly could be on the path to being another USC QB bust.

12 hours ago, GoPanthers123 said:

Trade down and get Mac Jones late first or early second. He isn’t worth number 8 but could be fair value later

No guarantee he will be there if you trade down. If he's you're guy for the future then you take him at #8. If you have doubts then draft BPA at any of our positions of need: LT, CB, Edge Rusher, interior Rusher, or even a LB if he excels in pass coverage and makes an impact on the run game.

2 hours ago, d-dave said:

I don't think about Lawrence at all.  He's going to go #1 so he's not on my radar.  Clemson did give us Watson so...tacos?

Realistically, when was the last time an Alabama QB had a high level, top 10 QB career in the NFL?  I've been a fan of football for a bit, and it's kind of hard to think about.  The 60s?  Stabler and Namth?  

I'm just a fan, not an evaluator.  When I look at Mac Jones to the NFL, I don't want him because Alabama QBs have no had the kind of success we need to have for our next QB.

This is why I don't want Justin Fields. The Ohio State track record for producing quality QB's for the past 50 years is worse than Alabama's.

I sincerely hoping Fields is picked by the Jets at #2 so we won't even be tempted to move up and grab him early.

1 hour ago, mav1234 said:

I don't understand why people try to compare Brady in college to any modern prospect.  There's no point.  Part of Brady's story, as we all know, is the pact he made with the devil after the NFL draft to go from a seemingly mediocre college QB to a God among NFL players.

 "You weren't suppose to tell anyone about that!"

32 minutes ago, BrianS said:

You'll still have your generational players, but the "good" receivers are becoming much more common.

Great point. If you are set at all the other positions and a can't miss prospect is available in the first round then I think a team should grab them. But, if you have roster holes on the o-line, d-line, or secondary I think they should be addressed. Like you said, it's easier to find good receivers who can get the job done w/out being Pro-Bowler players.

I only posted a portion of the article. I don't have anything about QB's because we've discussed that to death on these boards. 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/07/nfl-draft-primer-quarterbacks-fmia-peter-king/

1) Not a great defensive draft, at all. Jeremiah has 24 players with first-round grades, only 10 on defense. (For the record, four quarterbacks, four wideouts, three offensive linemen, two running backs, one tight end, three edge players, three linebackers, three corners, and one safety. No defensive tackles.) Jeremiah has Rousseau, Jaelan Phillips of Miami and Kwity Paye of Michigan atop his Edge rankings, but it doesn’t seem like any of them are locks.

What’s weird about this draft: It’s conceivable that the first eight players could be offensive players, and one of the unheralded corners—opt-out Virginia Tech athlete Caleb Farley or Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II—could be the first defender taken. “If you want a corner,” Jeremiah said, “you better get one in the first couple of rounds. It falls off after that.” Another son of an ex-NFLer, South Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn (son of former wideout Joe Horn), should go by the end of round one.

2) Best position in the draft: Wide receiver (again). In the last two drafts, teams have picked a total of 30 wideouts in the first three rounds. This year, Jeremiah has 19 receivers with grades in the top three rounds. When you see the recent draft depth of the position—third-round wideouts from the last three years: Terry McLaurin, Michael Gallup, Tre’Quan Smith, Diontae Johnson—I begin to think NFL teams should start treating the receiver position like running backs. Don’t waste a high pick on one; you can get a good one in the seventies, eighties, nineties overall.

“It’s almost the same every year now, Jeremiah said. “Last year, I had a record number of guys with top-three-round grades [27]. Not as much this year, but so many good options in the second, third, fourth rounds.” Most draft boards will have LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase and Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle among the top 12 picks. Kadarius Toney of Florida is Jeremiah’s fourth first-round wideout, but his favorite wideout at a bargain price (mid-round two) is Mississippi’s Elijah Moore: “There were games that nobody could cover him.”

3) Surest position at the top? Might be offensive line. It’s not deep, but either Rashawn Slater of Northwestern or Penei Sewell of Oregon (both were 2020 opt-outs) could be opening-day left tackles in September. They should both go in the top six or eight. Slater played well against Ohio State and ace edge-rusher Chase Young in their 2019 meeting. Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC) could play guard or tackle comfortably, and Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech) and Jalen Mayfield (Michigan) could crack the end of the first round.

-----

I found the comments on the defense prospects to be interesting. After reading this I'm glad we went all defense last year. Still, I wouldn't be crushed if we took a CB at #8 or with our 2nd round pick (#40) if one fall to us because we probably won't be able to get a solid starter after that...and CB is a desperate need on this team. Only one of our corners, (Donte), had an INT last season

The deepest position, WR, is the one position we're set for in 2019. DJ and Robbie both went over a 1,000 yards last year so we don't need a #1 or #2 in 2021.  According to this analysis, we can probably find a replacement for Curtis Samuel if he we can't afford him in the offseason. For years I've felt WR is becoming one of the easiest positions to replace...especially if you have a good system and QB already in place.

The O-line at the top of the draft are almost considered locks to start day one at LT. If Slater or Sewell fell to us at 8, it would be hard to pass on them. With the right LT in place, Moton's return, and a couple of other tweaks our O-line could should become a position of strength and if we failed to get a QB this year, whoever we brought in in 2022 (FA, trade, or draft pick) would be in a much better position to succeed. I was under the impression that this year's class of lineman was deep for interior lineman. I want to see what the other draft gurus are saying about them.

Thoughts?

17 minutes ago, CRA said:

They had 22 players out with COVID in the game vs Northwestern.  Game before cancelled because of COVID.  Had 23 players out the game prior to that.  Game before that cancelled due to COVID.   Ohio St not being a fine tuned machine wasn't a Justin Field's problem.    

What about Zach Wilson's big games?  The Hawaii Bowl vs a crap defense where he was horrible.  Or how bad he was in games vs Utah and San Diego St that same year? What would you define as the best game Zach Wilson every played as being?  

What are the question marks on Wilson? How is a comparison of the two just a criticism of Fields.  Again, we got folks claiming there is nothing Fields does better than Wilson lol.  Which is absurd. 

 

You and CRA both bring up valid points about Fields and Wilson...and that's why I'm not sold on either one of these quarterbacks. I'm shocked so many people are in favor of giving up multiple #1 picks and a couple of other high choices to move up 6 spots in the draft and take either of them. 

If one of them fell to number 8, I can see considering it because you still have all of your draft choices to fill in the rest of the roster holes and build a stronger team around him. If we kept Teddy for another year you wouldn't even have to start him right away and give him time to get acclimated to the NFL. 

When you start giving away multiple picks inside the first 3 rounds in multiple years for these guys with all of our roster holes, that's a sign of desperation. We need to stay put and get the BPA or even trade down a couple of slots to gain extra picks if we can.

3 hours ago, JawnyBlaze said:

Dline depth isn’t a hole. A hole is a starter. A hole is a glaring need, as far as I understand the word. TE isn’t a hole. Corner barely qualifies. Safety, maybe but Chinn and Burris is a fine combo to me. The only holes I see are a couple OL, corner kinda, MLB. And we have a fair amount of cap space to get FAs for those holes if we’re drafting a QB

Dline is massive hole on this roster. We need a 3 technique who can bring pressure up the middle. D.Brown should improve with age, but he's more of a NT type. He is double teamed most of the time. We need someone beside him who can bring some heat, which  make things easier for Brown. You need to take a look at years stats. We had 29 sacks as a team. Brian Burns had 9 of them. Efe Obada had 5.5. No one else had more than 5. None of our DT's had more than 2. A lot of people want to blame Teddy for all of our problems last year, but Carolina's defense gave up on average over 25 points per game. Part of that is due to a lack of a consistent pass rush. We also gave up 4.7 yds per rush on average on the ground.

The team  only had 7 interceptions and 3 of those  were by a Donte Jackson, the only CB on the team to get an INT.   I think that more than qualifies as a roster hole. Three of our Safeties has 1 interception each, the last INT was by a LB (Tahir Whitehead). We can't assume a lot of free agents are going to be excited about playing for a 5-11 team this offseason. We need to fill these holes through the draft if possible. You can't do that if you give away everything to move up 5 or 6 spots in the draft and nab a QB.

Our guys played hard last year. I expect our 2nd year players to improve in 2021. But, when you look at our defensive stats, it amazing we were as competitve as we were in 2020. 

1 hour ago, jfra78 said:

If no Watson, we need to stick to 8.  None of these QBs are worth trading future picks for.  If one of the top four QBs drop to 8, then I guess we pull the trigger on a QB.  Otherwise BPA at a position of need.  Earlier I wasn't really feeling any of these QBs, but with us basically alienating ourselves from Teddy, we have little choice.  

We see this situation exactly the same. I don't see Wilson, Fields, or Lance as "can't miss prospects". There seems to be a sense of desperation to get a franchise QB in the 2021 draft even though we are more than a QB away from competing for a division/conference title and all the QB's above have red flags despite their talent. 

I actually think if we spent this draft beefing up the roster on the o-line and defensive side of the ball we'd be laying a strong foundation for the next 4-5 seasons. With an improved o-line and a healthy McCaffrey I believe even Teddy would be more effective in 2021. He isn't the future in Carolina, but he isn't the worst choice to hold things down for 2021.

When 2022 comes you would have room leeway to package some picks because a lot of our roster holes would be filled.. The team could move up to grab a promising QB prospect in the draft or acquire an established QB via trade or free agency. The 2022 starter (whoever it may be) should have a more talented and experienced team around him than the 2021 starter will.