Icege

The draft isn't a vending machine where you insert a pick, press A3, and out pops a franchise cornerstone. It’s more like a gacha game - you turn in a premium (or non-premium) ticket, hear the fun little jingle, and wait to see what you pulled... without knowing how strong it'll actually end up.

League-wide, the average draft hits on about 30 - 40% of its picks when teams have a standard seven selections. So if you walk away with 3 - 4 real contributors... that's considered a solid class. Hitting on 4 out of 11 is right in that range.

To be clear: this isn't some veiled endorsement of Tepper, Fitterer, or Rhule. It’s simply an honest accounting of which players from that class are still with the Panthers and heading into their fourth year - and thus outlasting the average NFL career.

Just trying to lean more toward more critiquing with clarity rather than lighting it all on fire for the spectacle of the flames.

5 hours ago, WhoKnows said:

It was nothing. It was a nice run in an easy schedule that did nothing but lose us DJ Moore and a lot more. We were 2-15 in 2023. Based on your logic, that winning finish should have been a launching point.

For as much as you want to say we shouldn’t have taken a risk, you still can’t admit that the plans we tankers laid out were proven correct. There’s no revisionist history. We said we should have traded Burns to the Rams. We said we should have sold off anything not bolted down like Brown and Horn and even Icky because they were in the 5 year plan. There is no disconnect, we tried to keep winning and draft a rookie QB and we lost about 4 1st round picks of value that could have been given to the guys you think might be the right crew.

How can your plan that has been laid out be correct when it involves the GM making the right moves and still getting fired so that a new, more capable front office and coaching staff can takeover?

That is a fantasy that you're trying to present as reallty.

A franchise CB, starting RB, reliable TE2, and a top OL6 is a bad draft?

That doompill some folks seem to take every morning does some crazy work.

29 minutes ago, WhoKnows said:

Nope, that’s not the disconnect. In 2022, our GM knew he was going QB in the 2023 draft. You are talking about risking fans involvement on a team that’s been basically bottom 3 in the NFL from 2018 to now. There is no risk when you are that bad. We were right to want Fitterer to tank in 2022 and get rid of anyone who could bring us big value and extra cap room for future years when we aren’t winning 2-7 wins a year. We knew we wanted a rookie QB so we didn’t trade assets for picks and get a better draft slot so we ended up only getting a 2nd for Burns and threw in DJ Moore plus an early 2nd instead of a 1st, which basically lost us an early 2nd.

The “risk” to our franchise’s losing culture ended up being around 4 1sts of total value. Yep, I refuse to listen to the other perspective that lost us around 4 1sts of value. At least our fan involvement is so high that our stadium isn’t chock full of visiting fans since we’ve won so much since 2022.

Again, you won’t change my mind that we should have tanked in 2022 and had another 2-4 Browns/Horns on this team.

Aaand this confirms the core disconnect.

You view tanking as a guaranteed payoff with no organizational risk, even under a GM you didn't trust. That's not strategic thinking... that's revisionist certainty.

"No risk when you're that bad" is also a wild take when the team under Wilks rallied and was almost able to steal a playoff spot in a weak NFC South. That wasn't nothing... it was proof that the locker room still had fight.

Looking Back at the 2021 Panthers Draft Class
An NFL player's career on average is said to last just slightly over three years, and because of that, it's considered a general rule of thumb that by Year 3, a team knows what kind of professional football player a pick has developed into. While there are always exceptions to the rule, that's not the point of this topic. This is about the players who are still on the team after being picked up in the 2021 draft (or as UDFAs). Only four remain on the roster today: Jaycee Horn, Chuba Hubbard, Tommy Tremble, and Brady Christensen. Two of them signed significant contract extensions with the team (Horn, Hubbard) while the other two (Tremble, Christensen) received short-term deals that aren't cap-heavy.

It's worth mentioning the conditions these guys entered the league under Matt Rhule's second year and Scott Fitterer's first. A ton of players were brought in that year, including a long snapper who didn't make the team… instead of Trey Smith, who just happens to be the Chiefs' starting guard (hey... to be fair to Thomas Fletcher, he did have a fun draft day phone call). These four survived Rhule and Reich and were seen as valuable enough under the first-year combo of Morgan and Canales to be rewarded with second deals.

Jaycee Horn (Round 1, Pick 8.)
Horn has all of the traits of a true CB1: elite footwork, physicality, and the ability to mirror WR1s... but his biggest challenge has been staying on the field. He's never finished an entire season, though to be fair, it's been rumored he wouldn’t have been shut down for the final two weeks of last season had the team been in playoff contention. He's got just 37 career games played over four seasons (with 15 of those coming in Morgan/Canales' Year 1). The team gambled on his production after seeing that not only can he lock down WR1s in man or match quarters, but he can also be dependable in a heavy cover-3 zone scheme like what the Panthers ran last season. With the recent free agent and draft additions made this offseason, expect Jaycee to go back to eliminating WR1s from the game rather than shutting down a third of the field like he was recently asked to do.

Chuba Hubbard (Round 4, Pick 126)
Originally seen as a depth pick with linear speed, Hubbard has outperformed expectations and emerged as the team's RB1 over the past couple of years. His 2023 breakout laid the foundation, but in 2024 he cemented his role as the lead back, showing much-improved vision, contact balance, and decisiveness in outside zone. He finished top-10 in missed tackles forced and yards after contact per attempt, all while holding his own in pass protection and producing on screens. Chuba doesn't have elite burst or wiggle, but he's carved out a spot as the leader and tone-setter in the run game. Not bad value for a Day 3 selection—positional value be damned.

Tommy Tremble (Round 3, Pick 83)
Tremble has been the kind of player every team needs but few talk about: dependable, physical, and quietly versatile. When he was drafted, he was already known for his blocking chops and has steadily improved as a receiver. He experienced his most complete season in 2024 with a 79.3% catch rate, 10.2 yards per reception, no drops, and a 108.9 passer rating when targeted. Not only that, he's been a consistent special teamer since coming into the league. He's a natural fit as a TE/FB hybrid in 12 and 13 personnel, consistently handling the dirty work in both run and pass situations.

Brady Christensen (Round 3, Pick 70)
BC has played all over the line both as a starter and as a back-up. We haven't seen the "short arms" come up as often as Rhule was worried about, especially against ATL and WAS where he logged over 100 snaps at center and posted his best grades of the year (76.0 OVR, 73.8 PBL, 75.8 RBLK vs. ATL; 85.2 OVR, 72.9 PBLK, 86.0 RBLK vs. WAS). While his overall pass-blocking grade (56.1) and lack of a consistent position might mean that he's the perfect OL6 rather than a long-term starter, he's been dependable when given his opportunities.

16 minutes ago, CRA said:

the one game Dawkins plays would be epic.  So much fun.   He is one of my all time non-Panther favorites.  But it would only be one game because he would be suspended for the rest of the year after decapitating and folding folks up like lawn chairs.  

I need Trevin Wallace retelling the Takeo Spikes story about Weapon X

Do we just get to have the player without any salary cap implications? Do they have to be a current player?

Give me Brian Dawkins and just let him bless people.

Just finished the doc and it's pretty good. Nothing revealing other than getting a look into TMac's personality and his support circle.

Looks like he's surrounded himself with some good friends that have his back and are genuinely happy for him in his success. Cool to see.

10 hours ago, Gapanthersfan said:

2 outcomes:

1. he learns how to not drop a football and turns in to a very solid player for us.

2. He’s a poor man’s Ted Ginn w/o the speed. 

I really think his drops are mental. He’ll make some really tough grabs but miss on the routine. It’s a good time to have the best pass catcher in team history in Thielen. 

4.28 vs. 4.31

Funny enough... I can see the Ted Ginn Jr comp. Hands aren't the best but has great speed... except XL is almost 50lbs bigger than Ginn was.

That's a whole lot of him to be moving that fast.

19 hours ago, WhoKnows said:

Dude, I’m sorry but I don’t get your worries about this magical culture and fan involvement.

And that right there is the disconnect.

It’s not that you’re being misunderstood... it’s that you’re refusing to consider any perspective but your own. That kind of zero-sum absolutism doesn’t lead to learning nor understanding. It just creates dissonance and a distorted sense of certainty.

24 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

That's a lot of players that have to be replaced with draft picks in the next 2 seasons to realize those cap savings. And even then you have to spend those savings on replacements. This team is still upside-down with its cap commitments and it is going to take awhile to get it corrected. 

Yea, there's a good amount of players there but fortunately it's not a lot of expensive players that are going to demand a premium to be replaced outside of TMo. A punter, two ST LBs, a LS, three back-up OL, and a starting center are all players that can be replaced with day three picks which will allow the team to commit the premium picks to premium positions.

fwiw I hope that they invest in a franchise center next season if they decide Mays isn't the guy.

1 hour ago, Navy_football said:

Should get plenty of push up the middle with Derrick, Ashawn and Bobby B. That makes an Edge's job much easier since QB's don't have a pocket to step up in. Couple that with a few A gap blitzes with LBs and Safeties, and QBs should be flushed out like Duck Hunt. 

Base for run downs: Scourton-Brown-Brown III-Robinson-Wonnum

Base for passing downs: Scourton-Brown-Jackson-Wharton-Umanmielen

I can dig it...

24 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I see it a bit differently considering there is only 20M in cap space. Given how many of the premium positions are on rookie contracts their cap should not be nearly maxed out. Tillis still has a lot of work to do before these rookies will need a second contract. 

Most analysts from what I've seen are projecting next year's cap as closer to $298M but as high as in the low 300s. We saw a $24M increase this season, $31M increase last season, and $16M prior to that. There's also the inevitable cap casualties... A'Shawn Robinson being cut saves the team $8.5M. Damien Lewis would save $9M. BB3, Jewell, PJ2 all would save $5M each. Tremble and Mike Jackson could save $4M each. It wouldn't surprise me to see the team make a few moves that end up giving them closer to $50M in cap space to start 2026.

I'm less worried about next year's cap space due to the upcoming UFAs for the team: TMo, AT, Tuttle, Wonnum, Nijman, Mays, Corbett, BC, Dowdle, Rozeboom, Martin, Rhattigan, Jansen, Scott... the only FAs I'm seeing on Spotrac outside of TMo that are must keeps are ERFAs Coker + Demani (so long as TMo's knee is fine, of course). 2027 on the other hand is going to be the offseason for Bryce's bonus option with Icky being the most significant UFA. PJ2, A'Shawn, Josey, MJackson, Tremble, Dalton, DJ Johnson, Zavala, and Bartholomew are the only other current FAs then.

I'm of the opinion that they are all in on next season and if it doesn't go well, it's being blown up and starting from scratch. They're currently estimated to have $130M in free cap space in 2027.

10 minutes ago, WhoKnows said:

I’m not suggesting that tanking is the right thing to do every time. I do think that if you have guys like Burns and Moore that you will trade anyway, then you should think about tanking and getting max value, especially if you want to grab a QB that might go 1st overall. We tried to do both. Trade CMC for picks but don’t take 3 1sts and a 2nd for Burns and Moore. Instead, we won a few games and then threw in Moore on a trade because we didn’t tank and we gave Burns away for a 2nd.

Can you honestly say that fully tanking, by trading away all our best guys who weren’t in future plans, in 2022 wouldn’t have made our team better now? We wanted a rookie QB and we didn’t extend the main guy we didn’t want to trade. We were 100% in full tear down and we could have been a playoff team last year if we used the 4 extra 1sts or 3 1sts and 2 2nds (counting picks saved on Young by being pick 3 or 4 not 9) on D.

Culture building is funny. It took three coaching changes to seemingly get there. Morgan and Canales weren’t in charge when we “protected” our culture. We still traded Burns and Moore, we just lost 3 first round picks in the process.

Also, do you think the Eagles are in a bad place because of their coach clearly tanking a game for a draft pick? Remember that? It was obvious and the coach was fired. The funny thing is that this is something teams do all the time but they add their stars (like Cam in 2016, CMC, Burns, etc.) to IR or rest them in week 16/17. Pederson was just dumb and made it obvious. He could have just sat his starters to start.

Anyway, did that incident tank risk their credibility? Did Barkley decide to not sign with them? Seems like their SB win and other SB visit say they are just fine. Winning makes culture, picking the right coach makes culture, trading away guys who are on other teams in a year for top picks and keeping more picks by having a better starting pick to trade up, does not impact culture. If it helps you win, culture will be fine, ask the Eagles.

Sure, there's definitely a chance that a fire sale in 2022 could've paid off but I don't think that's a certainty. It's not just about stockpiling the picks and bettering odds; it's about hitting on those picks, having a stable coaching staff to develop them, and keeping the locker room engaged. We didn't exactly have a model front office nor stable coaching staff in 2022.

It's worth noting that part of the reason that DJ had to be included in the trade up for #1 was because the Bears needed an immediate, proven WR1 to help Fields. It was him or another immediate first-round pick, not a future one like what was being offered for Burns (whom teams knew that things were shaky with and that they could afford to wait).

As for the Eagles, they recovered because the foundation was already in place. Pederson got flak and was ultimately fired (and was just fired again this offseason from the Jags). Their recovery was quick because the foundation was already in place: Howie Roseman and a solid roster (that included a stacked OL, a second year QB, and a veteran defense). Philly had a margin of error that just wasn't available to Carolina.

I'm not against using the draft to rebuild, but a full-on teardown comes with real consequences: fan disengagement, a fractured locker room, poor development, a losing environment... and I don't believe that we had the necessary leadership at the time to cleanly navigate it. That's a gamble that I want no part of. 

Now that we do have a staff that seems to be in complete alignment and building for the future rather than fighting for their jobs, I'm more inclined to observe their process and see where it leads rather than backseat driving with "perfect" hindsight. 

33 minutes ago, WhoKnows said:

I don’t know why the tanking concept is not understood. Coaches and players are not involved at all. It’s always the front office. If we had actually traded players like we should have back in 2022, we would have effectively tanked and gotten a better pick than 9 so we lost all the draft picks to get Young. We traded CMC. We should have traded Burns for the haul and taken GB’s offer of a 1st for Moore. We could have easily traded anyone else.

We see it in every sport, every year. Trade deadlines where bad teams give up current assets for future assets. Unfortunately, we were stupid and decided we only wanted to trade CMC for peanuts even though we clearly had a plan to go after Young. We were dumb and there is no way you can tell me that we shouldn’t have tanked via trading away Burns, Moore and anyone else. We’d be a much better team right now had we had a fire sale and tanked the 2022 season.

Trading away your top players for future draft picks or prospects (baseball) is tanking. Shoeless Joe and the black Sox is not tanking. That’s point shaving/betting on your sport/team. Again, I just don’t get why this concept is so hard to get when MLB, NFL and NBA teams trade players for future assets every single year and usually end up with better draft slots (or at least odds since Hornets never win the lottery).

I don’t think the issue here is that your perspective isn’t being understood. It’s clear imo - you’re suggesting that the front office should intentionally weaken the roster by offloading talent in exchange for future assets. If I'm misreading that, then disregard the rest because then that puts the disconnect on my side of the court.

But I believe the actual disconnect comes from the way it is being presented... as if tanking is always the optimal path forward. That framing overlooks very real consequences: financial losses from a disengaged fanbase, damage to team culture (say what you want about "culture-building" wins, but this team looks more united than it has since the Super Bowl run), and the difficulty in attracting/retaining talent when players don’t believe they’ll get a fair shot to compete during their already-limited careers.

Not every organization is in a position to go full teardown and when they gamble on the future at the expense of the present, they risk more than draft position... they risk credibility.

I'm impressed with the way Tillis is structuring the books.

The team is currently spending more on non-premium positions like iOL and S, but that’s because they’ve got rookie deals locked in at several key premium spots:

• QB: Bryce Young
• LT: Ikem Ekwonu
• EDGE: Nic Scourton, Princely Umanmielen
• WR: Tetairoa McMillan, Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker

The only veterans at those premium positions on second contracts are Taylor Moton, Adam Thielen, and the recently extended Jaycee Horn. Given that setup, it makes sense to allocate bigger dollars toward non-premium roles - especially if those pieces support the development and success of the younger core. Investing in iOL helps our young QB. Strengthening the DL helps both of our young EDGE guys and our high-paid CB.

I can see the vision. Fingers crossed that it works!

This is incredible lmfaoooooooooo

29 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

On NFL tanking, I've been saying this for years: There's too much at stake from management to coaching to players for tanking to happen. And if a team were actually caught doing it, like an actual conspiracy, then we're talking Shoeless Joe levels of condemnation.

Excuse me, what's that? They've now forgiven Shoeless Joe? What about Charlie Hustle? Him, too? Hmmm. We're living in a post-ethics world aren't we? $400 million jet from the Qatari royal family? I guess this is the new norm.

 

My head is spinning from a lifetime of, "If you see somebody jump off of a bridge does that mean you should do it too?" to the current, "I'M ABOUT TO SWANTON BOMB A VEHICLE ON THE INTERSTATE BELOW, LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE FOR EARLY ACCESS TO MY NEW MEMECOIN!"

Omgomg

43 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Is there any word on his injury status?  google doesnt have anything current on him

Tony Pauline says he's fine.

Take that as you will.

I am JUICED to see these young guys get on the field and figure things out over the course of the season. I know that things are being slow-played and that 2026 - 2027 is the "show up or shut up" season for this iteration of the team, but it's difficult for me not to be excited about how they might trend.

1 hour ago, frankw said:

I have to say it's quite fascinating seeing you pivot from months and months of wailing and agonizing about threads derailing into Bryce Young slingfests only for you to turn around and do the same thing.

And just for the record. Nobody in life ever attained wisdom and clarity from mistakes by having people blindly fawn over them and tell them they are above reproach and incapable of making mistakes. Our front office is just as human as we are. And based on the fact that front offices across the league outside of a handful of teams change on a fairly regular basis it's safe to say they are certainly no more infallible than the average Joe even though they possess significantly more knowledge usually.

If you want a utopia where all you do is shine shoes for anyone associated with the Panthers you go right on ahead and create yourself a new community sir. More power to you.

Ironic that out of all of the multiple players listed, you zeroed in on Bryce Young and only Bryce Young. No mention of Derrick Brown or Jaycee Horn... Hell, we can even add Icky to the mix but sure... let's laser-focus on Bryce. That's a hell of a mirror for you to run into.

I'm not sure what "wisdom" you think you're imparting to the front office beyond the idea that the being Panthers means that they're destined to suck forever. That doesn't exactly sound like wisdom as much as it sounds like the same relentless doompilling you've been committed to.

But sure, let's pretend it's "rational" to condemn a pick after limited rookie action and an injury setback (and that anything less than full-blown pessimism is bootlicking). That's certainly the lighthouse we all need in the storm that you insist is eternal... at least until you and only you, decide it's not.

Unlike you, I'm not asking anyone to leave. I'll just keep showing up with facts and context. You're more than welcome to keep showing up with doom and gloom.

I like his pairing with Jewell for the upcoming season. Josey can play close to the line + blitz while Wallace can drop back into coverage and cover space with his speed.

I can see Evero looking to send Wallace on the blitz in the second half after establishing him as a coverage guy to the opposing offense.

9 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

This post makes absolutely no sense

Considering you previously struggled to understand BTT despite it being explained in a video, write-up, and multiple replies, I get why this might be a little too complex for you.

Happy to clarify again! Just let me know which part tripped you up this time.

1 hour ago, frankw said:

Doubling tripling and quadrupling down on this subject in defense of the pick is reminiscent of a certain mindset that has overtaken the political world.

This conversation will become less contentious and dragged out to the point of becoming a dead beaten horse if rational minds can simply agree that we made a mistake missed on a potential franchise center and we will learn from it. All this coping is unnecessary.

Kind of like folks that double, triple, and quadruple down on hating Bryce Young being the Panthers' QB?

This hindsight fantasy that the team was locked in on Zach Frazier and passed on a "guaranteed" franchise center is, at best, revisionist; at worst, it's the same tired fatalism we've seen directed at Derrick Brown, Jaycee Horn, Bryce Young... and now Jonathon Brooks.

It's wild watching Panthers fans trip over themselves to dismiss any pick that doesn’t line up with their emotional forecasting, no matter the context, logic, or timeline.