Bear Hands

If other FOs view the EDGE and CB class as highly as it is hyped, it may actually push a WR right into our laps.  I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. I've seen Seattle & PIT fans gushing about Will McDonald IV or Adebawore with their late firsts.  High SPARQ guys with length, power, and speed.  

I mean, if it's true many teams only have S-N with a Round 1 grade, then it really isn't out of the realm of possibility that Hyatt, Johnston and/or Downs slip.  Addison I have a hard time seeing fall, but those other three, yeah.  

I lean EDGE.  There are two pass rushers that could be quite ideal in Ojulari or McDonald IV, prime for the taking.  Even Adebawore out of NW.  So many good defensive options.  

Campbell or Simpson could likely be available. 

Following up a franchise QB pick with a dude to eventually lead this defense would be pretty nice.  

Can't entirely deny going TE or WR but the defensive prospects are really great in this range.

6 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Haener has been your guy for a while. I could see him finding some success in the league.

I followed him the past few years because people said he had R1 potential, and he made legit Sunday level throws and produced extremely efficiently.  Funny enough, the frame is the concern, just like the convo we're having re:Bryce, but he did have an injury to show for it.  His arm is also above-average at best, can't dispute that, but I see a guy who can easily translate.  The arm strength combined with frame is what puts him out of R1, but he's got a ton of poise, Fresno State let him call audibles and make a ton of presnap reads, lots to like.  

Browns and Niners have shown the most interest so far.  Won't be a Panther though haha

I believe Haener was the other QB in the 90s. 

Unrelated but I do feel strongly that he’ll be an asset for a team. Perfect backup that has starter potential down the road.

He secured himself a R3-4 selection at his pro day and possibly the next QB taken after Hooker.

This is excellent.  Nice work.  

Rather than a mock, this is nice as it's more understanding who could be the batch of names we consider rather than getting bogged down on the same few for each round.  

Running through scenarios, McDonald, Ojulari or Simpson are the guys see consistently being available come 39.  One (or more) will be there, and the value will be awesome.  May even present an opportunity for a minor trade down to gain capital and maintain a top-45 pick/land a guy in the same tier.  

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

He can tell which ones are alts by the IP addresses.  His response was telling you that you are way off base thinking those 2 are the same person.  They really don't act anything alike honestly.  

That's likely just the admin, probs not moderators. But it's pretty easy to deduce since people don't realize how similar they type on multiple accounts lol.  

Right around the same time...well done Chris Maier:

Quote

Gabbert may throw the best 20 yard "in" route that I've seen on tape in quite some time. He's got an elite sense of timing when attacking zone coverages and is an unquestioned leader. 

Let's also not forget, many of today's top offenses are incorporating many elements of the spread.

To tie up the ends on Gabbert's body of work, I believe he absolutely is the only QB worthy of a top-10 pick in this draft class, and he is by far the best pro prospect at the position.

This is a player that can start day one and manage an offense. It would be a mere impossibility for a player of this caliber, in today's NFL, to fall out of the top five selections.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/672335-2011-nfl-draft-debate-blaine-gabbert-vs-cam-newton

He really stuck around for a while.  Has to be one of the few remaining FO guys still in house from prime Hurney/Fox.  

I feel like this draft is going to be bonkers on who goes where and trades.  Something tells me this year is one of those wild ones where mocks and projections are even more off than they usually are (which is already a lot)

20 minutes ago, KillerKat said:

Exactly. Rolling with what we have atm, this is what we look like:

LOLB: Yetur Gross- Matos - Amare Barno 
LILB: Shaq Thompson - Brandon Smith 
RILB: Frankie Luvu - Kamu Grugier-Hill - Arron Mosby 
ROLB: Brian Burns - Marquis Haynes 

Theres also the possibility of Henry Anderson lining up at OLB. Chinn is backing up at safety and only brought in on special packages. 

Typical 3-4 ILBs are usually around 230-250lbs, sometimes close to 260, and the OLBs are around the same size as 4-3 DEs. Chinn is neither.

I agree, not saying he is per se, I'm just having a hard time placing him.  Do note, he is 6'3 225 so it's not like he's some shrimp out there.  And he said he's bulking more so he could be pressing towards 230.  But that does not mean he's instantly a 3-4 ILB.  But if Navarro Bowman could make it work with Patrick Willis in a Fangio scheme....just saying...

What you're saying is more in line with my second diagram, just YGM in lieu of Haynes. 

12 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

I dont believe your nickel assumption is correct. It would be helpful to add that Rowe would come on the field, horn would slide to nickel and Shaq would most likely leave the field. Also, Ervero ran a lot of 6 db 1lb. So i'd expect in our defense as well. Luckily, Chinn is a DB that can play LB.

One thing is true, there's a lot we can do.  The objective in my assumption was how we maximize our best players, making sure Chinn & Luvu are on the field the bulk of the time.  

What's your guess at our nickel package? That's the one to configure as it's going to.be the majority looks.  

Best diagram guess Base 3-4:

                 Woods - Bell

Horn                                      Jackson

     Burns - Shaq - Chinn - Luvu  

         Brown - Tuttle - Williams

For nickel, you can have near identical personnel, Chinn & Luvu's assignments change.  Shaq & Luvu are the LBs.  Chinn big nickel.  Burns is standing strong side near the line. 

or another look....(if Chinn plays robber or creeps up to the box, disguise looks)

                 Chinn - Bell

Horn                                      Jackson

     Burns - Shaq - Luvu - Haynes (or rookie?)

         Brown - Tuttle - Williams

Woods is the guy I'd be willing to sit to bring more flexibility.  

14 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

What do you know about Lamel Coleman?  He was a day 3 draft pick out of UMass and the Panthers signed him from the Dolphins practice squad during the season.  Not to say he will eventually start, but is he that depth swing OT everyone seems to be looking for these days? Without a preseason, we have not seen or discussed him. 

I would hate to pull Christensen out of LG to move him outside, making us weaker at 2 positions should a OT get banged up.  (Wharton used to be that guy, and I did not like it then).  Of course, as happy as I have been with Mays--it could work.

 

I won't act like I know Coleman much, not a dude I've known well.  Great length and size.  Funny enough, his comp on NFL.com is our former Dennis Daley.  Who was actually starting LT for the Titans last year as crazy as it sounds.  

Quote

"He's one of those guys you kind of start to like and you fight for him in your draft meetings and then he's starting for you in a couple of years." -- Offensive line coach for AFC team (per nfl.com)

Seems like it's Mays, McCray, Coleman, Brown, & Tecklenberg as our primary depth. Definitely could use some talent with their little experience.  

If Moton misses time, we don't have an ideal guy to slide in.  Brady can backup Icky.  Mays can play all 4 non-LT spots but you want him fixed on just a few for future development.  McCray seems like a OG.  Would be nice to identify a Right Tackle type.  

A spot I think a lot are bypassing bc of starters being set is having one more OL for depth, particularly tackle. 

Braeden Daniels or Jaelyn Duncan are two in the 4th-6th to look out for.  We have a situation where we could really teach up with the guys we have, helping set ourselves up for a smooth transition post-Moton, which could happen in 2-3 years.    

Just now, MHS831 said:

I said it first at a dinner party.

1. 5 Edge players ranked in the top 21.  I think the Panthers might trade back from #39 if Ojulari is not there.  Reason?  If they want an Edge, You would have Felix, McDonald IV, White, Hall, and Foskey between #44 and #60. 

2. CBs Juluis Brentz (K state)  and Corey Trice (Purdue) are good fits and could be available with pick 93.  I worry that there could be 2 lingering at #39 that could tempt the Panthers--Ringo and Forbes.  My preference is to wait until day three and draft Terrell Smith.

3. If you really want a TE from this draft with the third rounder, take Luke Schoonmaker.  He will be a solid starter in this league.  He is a sleeper because he played behind one of the best TEs in the NCAA at Michigan, but he was still able to post decent stats. If not,  Brenton Strange (Penn State) would be the TE I would target --https://www.nfl.com/prospects/brenton-strange/32005354-5218-8631-c965-3e23bcc23565

4,  If you look at the WRs between #76 and #86, it is reasonable to expect one to drop to 93.  We have already had contact with Mingo.

So, based on this list, here is what I would do: 

Pick 39:  If Quentin Johnson (WR) and BJ Ojulari (Edge) drop, I think the Panthers take that player.  If not, I think they might consider CBs Forbes or Ringo.  Personally, I want an edge in the second round, so I trade back in round 2 and take an Edge like Hall or McDonald IV.  I would then (possibly) move up from #93 to make sure I grabbed a WR--Mims, Rice, or Mingo.

Sleeper I would grab in round 4 (you heard it here first):  CB Terell Smith (Minnesota). https://www.nfl.com/prospects/terell-smith/3200534d-4973-9042-a2e5-7a611c3c3214

So what would I do if the draft were today and I was given the job?

1.  Bryce Young.  51% sure.

39.  Assuming no player is there that would make me jump, I would try to trade back about 15 spots to about #54, adding a third round selection (somewhere around #85).  With the 54th pick, I would take Edge Derrick Hall or Will McDonald IV.

85.  From that spot, I am really eyeing WR because I like a few who should be on the board--Mimms, Mingo, and my favorite, Rice. I throw in my fifth rounder if necessary to move up to take Mims or Rice.

93.  Brenton Strange, TE Penn State. 

114.  Offensive line depth--I would hope that USC Guard (with Tackle ability) Andrew Vorhees would drop due to the injury he is rehabbing.   He would be ready to start in a year or two.

132.  Terell Smith, CB Minnesota

 

100000% agree on Schoonmaker. Have been a big fan of his throughout this whole process.

Big fan of Rice & Mingo as well. 

39 is the one giving me trouble because I see similar value until pick 50ish.  A trade idea I find rather compelling is with GB.

If there's a guy they absolutely want, I'd do a 39+93 for 45+78 (+maybe a late round 2024 pick).  That right there is a solid potential swap situation.  

It would be nice for Goodell's smarmy self to not be the one who runs round 1.  He loves the boos/reception so I don't even want to have him get it.

I vote Kay Adams.  

1. Sanders

2. Simpson

3. Campbell

4. Dorian Williams

*Dorian Williams LB & Tyjae Spears RB are the 2 that basically beat Caleb Williams & USC.  

17 tackles in that game and made Caleb look pretty meh in my view.

No comp picks.

Round 1-2 is set by standings, but Round 3 onward is pure lottery (per round)

Something I find pretty interesting is the shear volume of EDGE & CBs graded as 2nd-4th rounders.   There's a lot.  

At EDGE, Nick Hampton, Isaiah McGuire, Byron Young & KJ Henry all seem quite interesting.  Really like McGuire.  That first pick in R4 could have some nice players available.  

Garrett Williams and Darius Rush are a few of the CBs with some nice write-ups.    

11 minutes ago, SOJA said:

I say this every year, but if you enjoy draft coverage I highly encourage purchasing a subscription to the Athletic for the beast alone. It is so comprehensive, it's the closet things fans will get to an actual NFL draft book. 

It is accessible to both casual and hard core fans. 

It's great when we draft a random lineman from Arkansas in the fourth round, while the huddle is losing their fuging mind you can pop into the draft guide and see that Dane had him ranked as a 2nd to 3rd round talent, with elite athleticism and upside. Then you can hit your cigar and laugh like a cartoonish villain while still shitposting on the huddle

Athletic is totally worth it and is like a la croix per month.  Also love Robert Mays' podcast.  The only decent Football show along with ThatFranchiseGuy on YT.  

@rayzor Feel free to just push my post into the other thread

Dammit thanks I was drafting mine when you posted.  Mods can delete mine haha

This is probably the most comprehensive draft piece put together.  It's basically a 300+ page scouting booklet.  Brugler has had decent connections over the years and does have an ear on scout preferences so I'm a fan of his.  This could help give insight to guys that may surprise come selection timing on draft day.  

I don't want to just paste the paid content but figure to share notable highlights:

Notables:

Bryce is #1 Overall, CJ is #4, Richardson & Levis in the teens

WR: 1. Smith-Njigba (18 overall) | 2. Addison (25 overall) | 3. Hyatt (31 overall) | 4. Flowers (32 overall)

49 Overall, QB5 Hendon Hooker

Kancey & Van Ness hype is real -- teams are sold on those two

The smaller CBs Turner & Forbes are ahead of Smith & Stevenson at CB all Round 2 grades

Higher Than Typically Projected:

5 Overall, CB1 Christian Gonzalez Oregon

48 Overall, WR7 Tyler Scott Cinci

51 Overall, TE5 Tucker Kraft SDSU

58 Overall, EDGE10 Derick Hall Auburn

72 Overall, EDGE12 YaYa Diaby Louisville

Lower Than Typically Projected:

34 Overall, WR5, Quentin Johnston TCU

62 Overall, OT6 Dawand Jones OSU

68 Overall, DT7 Adetomiwa Adebawore Northwestern - There's been hype but he isn't as high as I thought

The guys that are in our range, consistently showing to be in our range elsewhere:

33 BJ Ojulari EDGE, 38 Trenton Simpson LB, 39 Mazi Smith DT, 41 Josh Downs WR

1 hour ago, WUnderhill said:

 

LaPorta just doesn’t bring enough blocking, and based on his size I don’t think he ever will. He’s a receiving TE and his speed is good but again, size wise he’s not going to consistently body LBs over the middle IMO. I think he could be a good but not great receiving TE and average blocker, so I just don’t see the upside with him that I do with some others. Washington and Musgrave are better blockers, especially Washington, who provide more potential upside in the receiving game, even though Washington is kind of heavy footed. Kuntz is maybe as good of a blocker right now, but his athleticism at 6’7 is insane and gives him more room to grow than LaPorta. I think the only TEs I’d really want at the top of the second will be gone in Kincaid and Mayer. I like Washington, Musgrave, and Kuntz all in round 3 but they may all be gone since our rd 3 pick is kinda late. I’d be fine with LaPorta in that case. He’s TE 6 for me.

I guess we're just seeing things a bit differently.  Highly disagree Washington & Musgrave are better blockers.  That's actually part of the concern with both LM and DW. 

Seeing reports are Washington and LaPorta are even fringe 1st consideration and I believe it.  Musgrave could fall due to a few concerns including experience and just doesn't have the in-game strength you want to see. 

Washington could go as high as to Dallas in R1, the upside is just tremendous, but his concerns but his are with his blocking technique and cutting loose after initial contact.

LaPorta can do it all, and was already asked to.  Something you just don't see out of college TEs to that degree.  And from a program that's produced some.  

https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/2023/04/07/potential-bengals-draft-target-te-sam-laporta-keeps-seeing-his-stock-rise/

For me, LaPorta, Kraft & Schoonmaker are the ones that stand out the most after Kincaid.  But to each their own.