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MHS831

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Posts posted by MHS831

  1. 3 hours ago, Urrymonster2 said:

    I’d be interested in the number of injuries in these studies and how many starting calibre players. Percentages on small numbers are always misleading.

    Id also be interested in what they deem as “performance” as that’s potentially very subjective. Or how they are measuring any explosive loss.

    Not trying to dismiss this in any way but it needs a heck of a lot more context than percentages

    I had the same thought--and since medicine advances rapidly (there was a day when an Achilles injury means you are done) and an ACL was a near death sentence---so I think that is why the examples were recent.  

    The context is not what we have, but I did mention that we have the opportunity to monitor the situation for a year.  The thread did say "Statistical reasons" with the understanding that there are always contextual reasons, but your points are extremely valid.  

  2. 18 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

    If anything we're lucky he got this injury before we committed a huge deal to him.

    We have to operate like he's finished. 

    that is how I view it.  Even if he weren't injured, my position was that he was an average OT at best.  But it is a business, and if you invest even money in something that has a 20% chance of a return to mediocre, then you will not be running that organization long.  I thought Horn was a stupid deal (stil do, to be honest).  We have first rounders from SoCar who are being outperformed by undrafted free agents and practice squad players--our strength is finding those players--(MJax and Coker) and not trying to invest heavily in our top end players who either can't stay healthy or play the position at an elite level.  

    Ickey has a year of guaranteed money (something like $14m).  He should feel lucky he got that deal before injuring his knee, and we should be grateful that the injury happened before we gave him a $100m deal.  

     

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  3. Just now, Panthera onca said:

    The stats certainly aren’t good for returning to play at all, much less the same level. I just have this feeling the Icky will be one of the guys who return as good as ever and serves as a beacon of hope for others with this injury. His work ethic and drive to succeed will demand it from him.

    I see your view, but the fact that the time of recovery is straddling a contract makes it interesting/complicated.  Those other OL in this report are older players...but I would not want to be Morgan.  I would base my decisions on the statistical probabilities.  I would move him to guard--I would have considered it anyway if a better OT came our way.

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  4. hope this is not common knowledge to you, lifeless internet whores, (perhaps a bit too strong) but I decided to look into this to see what data Morgan and company will be examining.  Morgan recently said that Ickey's surgery was successful, but that is far from an endorsement that his return to form will be. Mathematically, his return to form is a longshot, and if he cannot play at the level he was playing, we need a left tackle, regardless of the 9-12 month average recovery time.

    Career Outlook for Linemen  
    Recent medical data indicates that offensive linemen (OL) have a significantly higher risk for patellar tendon injuries compared to all other position groups. For linemen, the mechanical demands of the position—specifically the extreme eccentric overload required during pass-blocking and the stress of managing a higher body mass index (BMI)—contribute to both injury frequency and difficulty in recovery. 
    • Return to Play (RTP) Rate: The overall RTP for PT ruptures is only ~55%, significantly lower than the ~79% average for other orthopedic surgeries.  In other words, a player with an ACL is 25% more likely to return to play.  
    • Return to Form: Only 21.4% of players return to their pre-injury performance level within two years.  (We have a 1-5 chance that Ickey returns to his present form-forget about his positive development and potential before the injury.  I am not a fan of those odds, especially when it could take 2 years to get there.)
    • Positional Impact: While skill players (WRs, RBs) rely on agility that the patella tendon (PT) anchors, linemen require the tendon for the "explosive" leg drive needed to anchor against 300+ lb defenders.  (In other words, it impacts agility and leg drive, and I can't think of many positions on the field that need those abilities more)

     

    Injury Type  Return to Play (RTP) Rate Career Longevity Impact
    Patellar Tendon Rupture 50% – 57% Highest (Worst outcomes in games played/performance)
    Achilles Tendon Rupture ~76% High (Decline in power/efficiency ratings)
    ACL Repair (ACLR) ~79%

    Moderate (Significant 1st-year decline; better long-term recovery)

     
    Recent High-Profile Cases (2025–2026)
    • Ickey Ekwonu (Panthers LT): Suffered a rupture in January 2026; he is expected to miss the entire 2026 season due to the 6–12 month recovery timeline.
    • Rashawn Slater (Chargers LT): Suffered a rupture in August 2025, forcing him to miss the 2025 season and potentially much of 2026.
    • Trent Brown (Texans RT): Suffered a tear in late 2024 and returned to play in 2025, serving as a rare "hope" case for the position. 

    Data from the NFL and NIH (National Institute of Health)

    Overall Assessment

    We basically have a year to evaluate Ickey's progress, but we need to consider the likelihood that he will never return to form. What is Ickey's "Form?" Ickey had 7 penalties (about average for the position) and surrendered 5 sacks (bottom third).  So the level he has a 21% chance of returning to is serviceable--not elite or above average.  There is a 78% chance that he does not return to this level or play.  I would add that he has been improving, but the data does not include projected form; it is based on current levels (2025)

    The Panther decision:  

    In the view of MHS, the Panthers should begin be re-signing Nijman and BC if possible. I imagine their agents are aware of the Ickey situation.  Nijman is 30ish and a strong run blocker, but his pass pro is weak (47.0 PFF vs run grade of 86.1-that is consistent with my novice observations).  He needs TE/RB help, in other words in some passing sets.   Christensen (29) would be my preference, however, because he has shown the capability to be an effective left tackle in the NFL, driven by elite agility, technically sound pass-blocking, and high-level college production (96.0 PFF grade in 2020). While sometimes limited by average arm length compared to prototypical tackles, his quick feet allow him to reach spots and maintain balance. He has successfully filled in at tackle for the Panthers and is considered a highly versatile, dependable lineman.  So if the Panthers can get these two back, they could find a LT later in the draft to develop.  The more I think about it, the more this might be my play.

    Even if the OT we draft late is not ready to play LT in 2027, we still need depth and youth at RT. 

    I would move Ekwonu to guard now and have him start learning that position (film, technique).  Lewis and Hunt will be leaving (unless restructured) in 2027-2028.  If Ekwonu takes 2 years to "return to form" as stated, he will show signs of his potential in 12 months--allowing Morgan and doctors to assess his likelihood to return.  Then I might offer a backloaded, unguaranteed contract with heavy incentives.

    We could draft a LT in the first round, but forcing a rookie to start at LT in the NFL has been far from a quick fix or recipe for success.  They often struggle for the first year--I am satisfied that, if we run the ball more as seems to be our MO, use more quick hitting passes such as slants, outs and some digs, we can function for a season with BC and Nijman.  Maybe this is a situation that is good on paper but catastrophic on the field, but free agency is not where you find your LT, and first round rookies tend to struggle.

    Furthermore, at the Senior Bowl (I think it was the Senior Bowl--East West maybe?) the panthers seemed interested in a tackle that is going to be a day 3 pick.  Of course, there are no first or second rounders playing in that game, so it could just be due dilligence.

     

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  5. 13 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

    Way too many of y'allare panicking about Icky. He holds no cards right now. His agent knows it. He's under contract next year with the 5th year option and is in no place to demand a huge deal rehabbing from an injury with a very spotty recovery history for NFL players. Any deal that would be inked right now would be far off his healthy market value. What's he gonna a do? Hold out and forego $17M after suffering a potential career altering or even ending injury?

    There's no pressing need right now to do anything long-term with either Icky or Coker. Chill.

    The Panthers hold all the cards currently with both these situations.

    I think signing Coker long term now (since you are not signing Ickey) makes sense, based on his production numbers.  If he balls out next year, you could be looking in the $15m range for a player you could have much cheaper.  If you wait until you have to make decisions about a healthy Ickey and then QB, you could lose Coker.  (I have not looked at contract details etc. so my math could be off--but where I sit now, it seems to me this is obvious:  Coker seems to have a future--solid hands, can get open, etc. His production (less that 400 yards) is probably far less than he will have next year etc.)

  6. Here is what I think. 

    1.  Not sure about the contract with Ickey, but I would let him walk if he wants big money, sign him to a back load contract to play here in the future--as a guard.  I am guessing that knee would be better at G than LT.  Draft a LT and re-sign Nijman and BC if possible.  

    2.  I love Coker, but the injury history is not a deterrant.  I think we need a #2--Coker is an ideal #3 imo.  He can play #2 for 2026, but whatever you do, you sign him NOW.  He should not demand elite money--3 TDs for 395 yards is not negotiation gold.  Lock him up now on a contract that is aligned with that level of production.

    3.  XL--this is an unpopular opinion, but we knew XL was developmental when we drafted him.   Maybe play him at the #3.  Financlally, you keep him on the roster and you hope to unlock his potential in year 3.  I am upset with him, but he has talent.  Can he put it together?  Unlikely, but we cant improve every position that we need to upgrade.

    4.  the OL is interesting.  First, our guards are contractually locked in until 2027; moving either is not worth the cost.  Extend them if anything.  I do not see Ickey coming back as an OT--but maybe a G.  We must draft a LT and C or RT.  Re-sign Nijman and BC.  We must also bring in or draft a starting Center.  I am concerned that they re-sign Corbett late in free agency, when his price drops.  I think we will draft one.  (In other words, sign your depth--BC, Nijman, and maybe even Corbett and Cuhran.  Draft a center and OT.

    5.  Sign a FA (Chenal) and add ILB depth later in draft.  Re-sign Rozeboom (reasonable contract--2-3m)

    6.  This is why I do not believe in giving RBs second contracts--they rarely play up to them.  Nonetheless, Chuba is a leader, we have Entienne, and Brooks is going to give it another try.  Dowdle is gone.

     

    What is not mentioned is the need for an edge--imo, we have to big edges that can hold the edge (Jones II, Scourton)  Princely and a free agent pass rushing specialist (Reddick?) should make edge better.

     

     

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  7. On 1/26/2026 at 3:01 PM, Aussie Tank said:

    Id be happy with Chanel and a highly drafted rookie 

    Me too--and I really like the ILBs in the draft.  My only concern is this:  Edge and OT are $20+m in free agency and their isnt much there--I think we have to go OT / Edge in the first two round--and possibly WR in round 3...ILB and S are available in free agency and their price tags are much lower.  We have to re-sign Nijman, I would think, maybe BC, and I think we will let Mays walk.  So I dunno.  Makes my brain hurt.

  8. It is the topic we have put off talking about-for obvious reasons.  Since I try to throw stuff out there to discuss (mainly to pick your brains to see if my thinking is way off base or on point) I decided to talk about free agents on our roster and decide whether we should try to re-sign them or not. 

    First, Rozeboom is 28 years of age (in his prime).  He had his best year at Carolina in 2025--for that reason, he might be inclined to stay if we give him an offer.  Will he want a starter's contract?  His PFF score was a 47. That could be the rub. He probably feels that he should be rewarded based on his 2025 performance (I think he is credited with 122 tackles, 2 sacks, a forced fumble, etc) I figured his asking price for a new contract would be around $6m per, but one source said $3m.

    I noticed this about his play when observing.  He is often the last person to take a step after the snap.  That could mean that his coaches were correcting a habit like taking a false step.  No step is better than a false step.  However, Luke was stepping before the snap on many occasions, and the difference is not really the number of tackles, but where (in relation to the LOS) they took place.

    I think Wallace and Rozeboom (if we can get him for $4m or under) would be adequate depth.  I think we need a free agent to add to the room, a player like KC's Leo Chanel.  KC is in cap hell, and Chanel was not a 3-down LB.  Here, he would get paid, join an ascending team, and start.  

    Our LBs with Chanel (PFF SCORE 75 on 440 snaps) would be Chanel, Rozeboom, Wallace, Cherelus, and Martin-Scott.  I am guessing the cost of free agency would be about $10-12m for Chanel and Rozeboom.  If we did this, we might be OK at ILB, although I really like some in the draft. 

    Personally,  I think we need a stud starter, but Chanel is 25 and could be that person. 

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  9. 2 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

    You either

    1- Get the right HC/System & QB combination

    2- Get the top-tier HC

    3 - Get the top-tier QB

    (All scenarios require a legit defense)

    We could've had option 1 or 2 with Darnold but Rhule was simply the wrong hire.  Everything comes back to that.

    Everything since that disaster has been overcorrections or correcting those over-corrections.  We're finally at a point where things have been reset enough to feel mostly past it, but it is hard to see the ramifications and what-ifs.  

    Oof.

    And timing is everything.  You don't build the roof of a house before you build the foundation.  Teams that draft #1 overall tend to go for QBs and put them in impossible situations.  Our coach sucked.  Our OL sucked (even when Cam was here, but he could overshadow that deficiency), etc.  They seem to have the idea down (Morgan?) but when Bryce gets paid, you can't have $100m going to the OL and $50m to the QB and still have WRs and a Defense.   We have to develop our talent and be prepared to let them walk and retool.  I am still a bit upset by the Horn CB deal.  Look at the salary we have locked up at OG and CB....Yikes. If it were not for MJackson and Coker, we would have been in deep poopie.  

    I am still fairly optimistic, and I have accepted the fact that Bryce will be our CB for at least another season.  He is improving, but I do not like the fact that he needs so much investment in the OL and WRs to be average--before his mega deal.  I am hoping we draft an QB with potential to develop on day 3 and see what we can do with him.  Long shot, but some of the top names in 2024 are going to be taken late this draft.  Like Purdy (I wanted him around round 5 or 6), or Ewers from last season.  I like several QBs who may not even be drafted, like the kid from Vanderbilt.  I also like Mateer from Oklahoma.  Raw, but a year on the bench could help.

  10. In the last 5 years, nearly 10% of the NFL's starting QBs (19% of the NFC QBs) were / are (at some point) on the Panther's roster.  Of those QBs, their 2025 win percentage (regular season) was (combined-- the Seahawks, Bucs, and Panthers) won 30 of 51 games--nearly 60%--in 2025.  At an average of 10 wins per season, a team has a better than 90% chance of making the playoffs.  (Heck, I nearly added Caleb Williams to this forumula since we basically gave the Bears their QB as well).

    I

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  11. 12 minutes ago, Pejorative Miscreant said:

    I consider OL DL/pass rush and LB the big 3. Just me. I am not saying the others are not important. If we sign a WR or Safety I’m not complaining that we should be looking to fix LB etc… instead.  I suspect the FO is looking for upgrades all over it’s just finding something that fits the price u want to pay/should pay. 

    I am of the mindset that our needs that would cost $20m+ should be addressed in the draft.  (OT, Edge, WR, maybe C depth) The others (LB, S and maybe C could be free agents.)

    I am not of the mindset that DL is a huge need--but I need to look at it more carefully.

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  12. Projected 2025/2026 Free Agent Costs by Position (AAV) 
    • Quarterback (QB): Top starters $40M–$50M+ per year (e.g., Kirk Cousins 4-yr, $180M in 2024). High-end backups/bridge QBs often get 2-year deals worth $10M–$15M+.
    • Edge Defender (ED): Top tier $20M–$25M+ per year (e.g., J. Greenard 4-yr, $76M; D. Hunter 2-yr, $49M in 2024).
    • Interior Defensive Line (IDL): Elite DTs command $20M–$27M+ (e.g., Christian Wilkins 4-yr, $110M; B.J. Hill 2-yr, $20.5M projected).
    • Wide Receiver (WR): Elite/WR1s $20M–$25M+ (e.g., Calvin Ridley 4-yr, $92M). Mid-tier WRs often command $10M–$15M.
    • Offensive Tackle (OT/LT): Top starters $15M–$20M+ (e.g., J. Williams 2-yr, $30M). Reliable veteran starters can range from $2M–$10M+.
    • Cornerback (CB): Top tier $15M–$18M+ (e.g., C. Davis/C. Ward 3-yr, $54M; Z. McCollum 3-yr, $48M).
    • Guard (G): Top interior linemen $15M–$20M+ (e.g., Robert Hunt 5-yr, $100M).
    • Safety (S): Top tier $12M–$16M+ (e.g., Xavier McKinney 4-yr, $67M; T. Moehrig 3-yr, $51M).
    • Linebacker (LB): Top-tier off-ball LBs $10M–$17M+ (e.g., Bryce Huff 3-yr, $51M; Patrick Queen 3-yr, $41M).
    • Running Back (RB): Top tier $8M–$12M+ (e.g., Josh Jacobs 4-yr, $48M; S. Barkley 3-yr, $37.75M).
    • Tight End (TE): Top tier $10M–$15M, shallow market often makes veteran value options around $2M–$5M.
    • Special Teams (K/P/LS): Generally under $5M per year (Kickers/Punters $2M–$4M; Long Snappers often at minimum or slightly above). 
    Top 2026 Roster Needs & Priorities:
    • EDGE/Outside Linebacker (OLB): Improving the pass rush is the top priority, as the team ranked in the bottom tier for sacks, with D.J. Wonnum heading to free agency.
    • Inside Linebacker:  With Wallace disappointing and Rozeboom possibly on the way out, the Panthers ILBs have been rated in the low 50s on PFF.  They need a quality man in the middle. 
    • Defensive Line (Interior): Support for Derrick Brown is needed to improve interior pass rush, with needs for more consistent production beyond A'Shawn Robinson and a recovering Nick Wharton.
    • Offensive Line (LT/C): The team needs a potential starter at left tackle and a long-term solution at center, with Cade Mays and others facing free agency.
    • Wide Receiver: Adding explosive weapons to complement the passing game is a priority.
    • Safety: Upgrading the secondary with better coverage skills to support Tre'von Moehrig and Lathan Ransom. 

    Considering that you can afford one to three free agents, and considering that you can reasonably expect 2-3 draft picks to contribute immediately, how would you attack the roster needs?  (Lets see how this goes--)

     

     

     

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  13. 4 hours ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

    LB Leo Chenal, Kansas City Chiefs (82.0)

    Best Landing Spot: Carolina Panthers

    After playing a limited role as a situational run-stuffing and blitzing linebacker to start his career with the Chiefs, Chenal is ready to take on a full-time role elsewhere. He has posted a 70.0-plus PFF run-defense grade in each of his first four seasons. But, it’s his improvements in coverage — headlined by a career-best 72.6 PFF grade in 2025 — that should make him an enticing option

    The Panthers' linebacking corps failed to produce a single player with a PFF overall grade above 55.0. Adding Chenal to headline the group as the new green-dot communicator would project well for a defense that ranked 23rd in EPA per play allowed this past season

    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-best-landing-spots-highest-graded-free-agents-defense-2026

    LB, S, are smart FA moves for the Panthers.  Not sure about a pass rushing Edge and WR.  

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  14. Based on the research I just did this AM in my lab which is in my man cave in my secret lair--The OL market in free agency is terrible.  Mays will get top dollar--they are predicting about $12m.

    I would love Linderbaum, but I am a realist.  first, the ravens will try to lock him down and he will get $20m or close to it.  

    To me, we can get a rookie to do as well for about $2-3m by round 2 or 3.  

    Due to the free agent Market, our draft should be focused on the offensive line and edge.  We need to sign a S, ILB, and maybe a TE in free agency.

    Draft a T, C, WR, and Edge.  

    We shall see. Mays would be a fool to stay--we cut him.  We played Corbett in front of him.

    I fear that they will re-sign Corbett to a 1-year deal--maybe that would be smart.  
     

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  15. This list from Bleacher Report is from their top 50 free agents.  Considering the cap, needs, and available talent, it is essential to meet as many needs as possible.  In doing so, I look at positions on the Panther roster that must be filled to avoid a drop in performance, and areas of the roster that can be improved as economically as possible.  For example, if we add a top TE, do we improve more than we do if we add a wide receiver that costs more?  We have to replace Cade Mays, it seems, but can we afford to re-sign him or replace him for $12m or so when our guards cost $40m, our RT costs $25m, and we need to something at LT.  Spending $100m on the OL is not good balance. Furthermore, you need to examine needs that are not necessarily urgent or immediate needs.  

    This is a reference--giving you my information so that you can form your own opinions and strategies--just sharing.  

    Based on Bleacher Report’s “Top 50 free agents” list

     

    Safety

    Bryan Cook, S, Kansas City Chiefs

    Estimated contract:  3 years, $30m

    Kansas City Chiefs safety Bryan Cook has been a full-time starter for the last three years and has shown the versatility to play multiple roles in the secondary. While the 2022 second-round pick isn't a Pro Bowl-caliber defender, he's a starting safety who just turned 26 in September.

    Jaylinn Hawkins, S, New England Patriots

    Estimated contract: 3 years, $25m

    Jaylinn Hawkins established himself as an above-average starter with the New England Patriots over the past two years and was a full-time starter in 2025. He has flashed positional versatility in New England and won't turn 29 until August.

    Andrew Wingard, S, Jacksonville Jaguars

    Estimated contract:  3 years $20m

    Safety Andrew Wingard returned to being a full-time starter this season and has fared extremely well in the Jacksonville Jaguars' new-look defense. The 29-year-old can play both strong and free safety and hasn't allowed an opposing passer rating above 100.0 since 2021.

    Coby Bryant, DB, Seattle Seahawks

    Estimated contract:  3 years, $42m  (MHS Comment:  I likey)

    Seahawks defensive back Coby Bryant has spent time as a nickel corner and at safety, and he's coming off a splendid season in Mike Macdonald's defense. The 26-year-old allowed an opposing passer rating of only 54.0 in coverage this past season, his first as a full-time free safety.

    Reed Blankenship, S, Philadelphia Eagles

    Estimated Contract:  3 year, $40m

    Philadelphia Eagles safety Reed Blankenship had a down year in coverage in 2025, but he's still one of the top young safeties slated to hit the market in March. The 26-year-old has started at least 15 games in each of the past three seasons, and while he might not do any one thing at an elite level, he does a little bit of everything well.

    Center

    Cade Mays, C, Carolina Panthers

    Estimated Contract:  3 years, $37m  (MHS:  The Panthers could re-sign him, but at this price, the draft may be the better option. OL will make more than they are worth in this market. We can’t spend $100m per year on the OL–on the other hand, can we afford to start the season with Nijman or a Rookie at LT AND a rookie C?)

    Cade Mays entered the NFL as a 2022 sixth-round pick, and he spent most of his early career providing depth at guard and center. However, he emerged as a dependable starting center for the Carolina Panthers this season and should cash in with a starting-level contract in March.

    Tyler Linderbaum, C, Baltimore Ravens

    Contract Projection: Four Years, $73 Million

    There's a good chance that Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum doesn't actually reach the open market. Baltimore declined his fifth-year option strictly because of salary implications—the franchise tag and the fifth-year option values are determined by offensive line salaries, not just center salaries.  ESPN's Dan Graziano reported last August that the Ravens planned to extend Linderbaum.  If Linderbaum does reach free agency, though, he may be the most coveted lineman on the market. The 25-year-old was just named to his third Pro Bowl and has rarely missed time in his four seasons with the Ravens.

    While Linderbaum may be a center-only lineman, he's durable, dependable, and just entering his playing prime.  Potential Suitors: Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns

    Tight End

    Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens

    Contract Projection:  Predicted around 4 years, $36.365 million ($9.1M average).

    Isaiah Likely has often been forced to play second fiddle to fellow Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews, who received a contract extension in early December. However, the 2022 fourth-round pick is a quick, athletic pass-catcher who could shine as another team's top receiving tight end.  He is 25.  

    David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns  

    Contract Projection:  3 years, $45m.  (Note:  While his role has diminished a bit with the emergence of Fannin, but Njoku has a $25m cap hit unless he is extended)

    Browns tight end David Njoku is coming off a disappointing campaign that included just 293 receiving yards, 12 games, and a knee injury that ended his season prematurely. However, the 29-year-old remains one of the league's better pass-catching tight ends when healthy, topping 500 yards in three straight seasons prior to 2025.

    Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

    Contract Projection: 3 years, $45.  (Some say that Atlanta will prioritize re-signing him)

    Kyle Pitts' value could vary wildly from team to team, depending on whether he's judged by his floor or his ceiling. A 1,000-yard receiver as a rookie in 2021, Pitts was merely an above-average tight end for the next four seasons before returning to Pro Bowl form late in 2025.  What's undeniable is Pitts' rare combination of size (6'5", 250 lbs) and playmaking ability.

    Edge

    Boye Mafe, Edge, Seattle Seahawks

    Contract projection:  3 years $33m

    Boye Mafe fell into more of a rotational role this past season and finished with just two sacks and 17 quarterback pressures. However, he's still a 27-year-old edge-rusher with 20 sacks and 24 tackles for loss on his resume. Mafe's best season was a nine-sack campaign in 2023.(His stock is down. Not elite, but enough here to consider)

    Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Philadelphia Eagles

    Contract Projection: Three Years, $80 Million

    Few players boosted their stock over the second half of the season quite like Jaelan Phillips.

    A 2021 first-round pick of the Miami Dolphins, Phillips tallied 22 sacks over his first two-and-a-half seasons before injuries became a significant issue. He was traded to Philadelphia at the 2025 deadline, and he quickly regained his early elite form.

    Though Phillips only logged two sacks with the Eagles this past season, he recorded 17 quarterback pressures, four tackles for loss, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. He wasted no time adapting to Vic Fangio's defense and becoming a legitimate difference-maker for Philly.

    Phillips' injury history will likely lead to an incentive-laden deal that gives his next employer some insurance against another stretch of missed time—he played just 12 games between 2023 and 2024. However, the 26-year-old will be the top edge-defender on a lot of boards.

    Potential Suitors: Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers

    Trey Hendrickson, Edge, Cincinnati Bengals

    Contract Projection: Three Years, $75 Million

    Cincinnati Bengals pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson didn't have the sort of contract year he might have hoped for. Cincinnati's defense was an overall disaster, and Hendrickson logged just four sacks and 12 quarterback pressures before suffering a core muscle injury that ended his season.

    Having turned 31 in December, Hendrickson probably will not command the same money he might have gotten had he signed an extension over the summer.

    Of course, a more reasonable contract makes Hendrickson much less of a risk than he might be on a market-level deal. He's still a four-time Pro Bowler who recorded 17.5 sacks in both 2023 and 2024. If healthy, he should provide double-digit sacks in 2026.

    Expect Hendrickson to land a contract high on incentives and with a team option on the back end. He'll likely draw the most interest from teams that expect to contend over the next couple of seasons.

    Offensive Tackle

    Comment: “This year's line market is alarmingly underwhelming overall.”  MHS comment: We need to re-sign Nijman and draft an OT or two.   

    Linebacker

    Kaden Elliss, LB, Atlanta Falcons  

    Contract Projection:  3 years, $28m

    Kaden Elliss might be an overlooked member of the Falcons' defense, but he's a starting-caliber inside linebacker who can cover, tackle, and rush the passer. The 30-year-old just had his third straight season with at least 100 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and three passes defended.

    Leo Chenal, LB, Kansas City Chiefs 

    Contract projection: 4 years, $30m (his estimate ranges from $5m to $15m–lotta varying opinions)

    Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal is an intriguing defender. He's excelled in a starting role over the past two seasons but has never been an every-down player—he played a career-high 53 percent of the defensive snaps in 2025. Still only 25, Chenal should be heavily targeted by teams that believe he can be a full-time defender.

    Nakobe Dean, LB, Philadelphia Eagles 

    Contract Projection  (another estimate with a wide range of estimates–3 years between $27m and $60m)

    Injuries continue to be a significant concern for Eagles linebacker Nakobe Dean, who has missed time in each of the past three seasons. As a player, though, the 25-year-old has shown elite upside.Dean amassed 55 tackles, four sacks, and seven tackles for loss in 10 games this past season. He may command a short-term "prove-it" deal, but his long-term upside is intriguing.

    Quay Walker, LB, Green Bay Packers

    Contract Projection:  3 years, $45m 

    Though Quay Walker hasn't played a full 17-game season since he was a rookie, his injury concerns aren't quite as extensive as Dean's. A terrific all-around linebacker, the 25-year-old has recorded at least 100 tackles, two passes defended, and 1.5 sacks in all four of his seasons.

    Devin Lloyd LB, Jacksonville Jaguars

    Contract Projection: Three Years, $51 Million

    Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd never quite played up to his draft status before the 2025 season. However, the 2022 first-round pick certainly made the most of his contract year.

    Despite missing time with a calf injury, Lloyd racked up 81 tackles, 1.5 sacks, seven passes defended, 14 quarterback pressures, and five interceptions, while allowing an opposing passer rating of only 56.4 in coverage.

    While the Utah product will turn 28 next September, he should have several good years in front of him.

    Wide Receiver

    Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers

    Contract Projection:  Four years, $84m

    After dealing with injuries early in the season, San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings was back to being a go-to target by November. The 6'3", 212-pound possession specialist has delivered 83 first downs and 15 touchdowns over the past two seasons.

    Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts

    Contract Projection: Four Years, $85 Million

    Don't be surprised if Colts receiver Alec Pierce commands nearly as much attention on the open market as George Pickens this offseason.

    While Pierce isn't a truly elite receiver—and won't get No. 1 receiver money, as a result—he's an explosive difference-maker with a great combination of size (6'3", 211 lbs) and speed. The 25-year-old just finished the first 1,000-yard campaign of his career and has led the NFL in yards per catch in back-to-back seasons.

    Pierce averaged an impressive 21.3 yards per reception in 2025 and 22.3 yards per catch the previous season. Teams looking for a big-play threat will be extremely high on the former second-round pick out of Cincinnati, whose next contract may surprise some folks.

    AS I, MHS831, SEE IT ON THIS 24TH DAY OF JANUARY OF THE YEAR 2026:

    Point 1  CADE GONE?: Cade Mays sure seems to be expendable. Only Nick Samac (PS?) is on the roster as a center if Mays leaves.  However, you have to look at the draft and take one of the top Cs, in my view.  You can’t spend all your cap on the OL because your QB is tiny.  However, if I am Cade Mays, I might sign for about $8m if given a 3-year deal because I can start in Carolina.  However, he jumped from Bama to Tennessee in college, so it is his nature to seek greener pastures.  Furthermore, I am not sure he was show the respect to keep him in Carolina–they put him behind Corbett twice, waived him, etc.

    Point 2  Good value at S:   Of the top 50 players in free agency (Bleacher Report list), there is value at S.  I like all of them on this list.  I guess we learn how much we like Ransom opposite Moehrig, but I think they are the same player–Ransom should be the #2.  At a cost of about $10m per year, a S might be a smart addition in free agency vs. the draft.

    Point 3  Linebackers (ILB) seem to be a good value that meets a need:  If we could sign a LB and maybe a S or TE in free agency, we could add 3 starters in free agency and focus on needs in the draft.  Ellis could be a value in the $8 range per year for 2 years.  Better than Rozeboom, imo.  Chenal and Walker are more expensive options, but affordable.  

    Point 4  I just don’t see the value at Edge:  At $25m per, if you miss, it is crippling.  Here is how we can improve in 2026:  A. We get Jones II back.  Not great, but he has had a 7 sack year and gets pressure.  B. Expect Scourton and Princely to improve.  In my view, a situational edge rusher might be all we need.  We should be able to sign a veteran like Reddick to do that.

    Point 5  I am not seeing the top WRs to be worth over $20m:  As with the Edge players, our WRs will continue to improve.  Can we use Horn better?  Coker has yet to be a full-time starter.  We need a #3, and we can find one on the cheap or in the draft.

    Point 6.  We can upgrade a lot at TE and the price tags are reasonable.   Bring Likely home at $9m per season.  As our #1, with Tremble, Evans, and Sanders (cuttable) on the roster, the TE room is respectable. Likely get the #1 role, he comes home, and should get more looks.

    Based on this, I think we should focus on ILB, S, and TE in free agency, hoping to get 2 or 3 starters.  In the draft, OT, edge, WR, and C.  

    • Pie 8
    • Beer 1
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