MHS831

49 minutes ago, Aussie Tank said:

I live Crocodile Dundee's life everyday mate haha

I KNEW IT!!!

I mean, it is just chairs.  I would hope they could get 50 sacks against chairs....Just kidding with hilarious joking.  This tells me a lot about their work ethic.   Great to see.   I have to think these were 2 great picks. 

Meanwhile, XL was playing Rodeo clown at the KY Derby with GloRilla.  Apparently, he misunderstood what the coach meant when he told him that he needs to spend the offseason working on the Jugs Machine.

2 minutes ago, Aussie Tank said:

Just don't let him meet your missus 

I hit you pretty hard yesterday with a Croc Dundee joke---disappointed that there was no retaliation.  All in good fun.

Seems to have mellowed from when I encountered him as a player.  Who knows?  It was nice of him.

On 6/5/2025 at 7:01 PM, PootieNunu said:

Kraken was a beast for a 6th rounder, too bad he is also bat poo crazy

which is why he was a sixth rounder.  I think I recall seeing a mock where he was a first rounder--If my recollection is accurate, he fell like S. Sanders.

7 hours ago, Aussie Tank said:

Horn isn't about position on the depth chart. It's the things he can do that others can't. If he develops to one of our best WRs even better 

I don't think we'd drafted a WR sixth round without a "particular set of skills."  (Do you guys get Liam Neeson's TAKEN movies down under, or do you watch Crocodile Dundee movies over and over?) 

On 6/3/2025 at 11:28 AM, MechaZain said:

I like the Teppers involvement sorry. Rather have an engaged owner and then someone falling asleep in his box seat. And I think this idea that's he's been overruling the coaches have been overblown, he's just been really bad at hiring them. Canales is his attempt at course correction by making it Dan's choice.

The "football guys" are still picked by the owner at the end of the day, there's no way around that so I'd rather the guy be into it. 

 

Absolutely.  However, when it comes down to making decisions, he needs to let the surgeons operate and not grab a scalpel because he can.  I look at it from his perspective-if he is lacking confidence in the GM (as he should have with Fitterer) or coaches (Rhule and Reich were not right for this team) then I can see some micromanagement.  Human nature.  So you make good points.

Regardless of an early June injury, the WR room, at least on paper right now, has never been deeper.  AT needs to be the slot possession WR (Ricky Proehl) and Coker is quite possibly his long term replacement, if not a solid #2.  Renfrow could give us a solid few years as well. XL will probably improve with the TMac competition.  TMac is goofy, but on the field, he has done nothing but produce. Horn is sneaky fast, and I wonder if he would not have done better in college at a university that did not have Hunter.  He is a deep threat and was on a team with a bad OL, so his numbers were a bit low.  In fact, there are two WRs who signed UDFA contracts who will probably go to the PS and wait for a season.  We are in fine shape at WR, if everyone progresses.  

On 6/3/2025 at 5:32 PM, Basbear said:

 

My granddad took a visit to NO and visited Bourbon Street and he never could get over the vomit and piss smell. Also the amount of bums and pick pockets was too much.

I know this about the most beautiful women, they are where the big money is. Young men- If you don't want to get cursed, never visit those areas. 

Since the buildings are in quarters, there are no alleys.  At around midnight (when I was there) Bourbon street is lined with trash bags and, yes, it smells.  There were a lot of women walking around by themselves.  My buddy wanted me to go into a strip joint just to get a drink and get off our feet--we'd been driving all day.  We got thrown out...For falling asleep.

13 hours ago, rebelrouser said:

I hope our first two picks do better in year one than those two. I was surprised we prioritized a rb over s considering the Brooks pick and the rico fa agency pick up. I'm glad they were true to their board and got their guys. Could be a great draft.

Drafting players off the operating table is a long-term play, as was drafting XL.  XL had the chance to make a splash, but he has raw hands and he went through some turbulence with the offense.  I was not expecting a finished product.  Now we will see what he has been doing this offseason.  

41 minutes ago, PanthersATL said:

Seemed like Dan was explaining his thought process on moving up vs moving down vs staying put on each individual opportunity they wanted. Maybe he was looking for validation on the valuation of various trade ups/downs from Tep who understands value equivalency convos

But it continues a narrative of the Teps being less hands-on than they were before (my timeline has the turning point being the infamous drink toss, with confirmation being the intro Dan/Dave presser)

I fully expected Teppers to force himself into the conversation, but he was hands on, mouth shut.   Morgan brings an eye for talent that we have not had here, imo.  I think what he has done over the past 2 seasons in the third and fourth rounds is stellar--I get the XL pick, and I get the Brooks pick in round 2--they have yet to work out, but there was always a patient, 2-3 year plan, and XL was raw.  So it is materializing.  However, getting a starting LB and TE in rounds 3 and 4 is good (I will call Sanders a starting TE because he will play a lot in the rotation).  This year, I think Ransom could start and Princely could be a key rotational piece.  

8 minutes ago, PanthersATL said:

agreed. As mentioned elsewhere, not unusual for (any team's) owner to be in the draft room.

But comparing the hands-on draft style of Jerry Jones vs (what appeared to be) a more observant/less-involved Tepper this year... it seems very much like Dan was running the show and making the player decisions with his football mgmt team

 

There was a point in the video that Morgan looks at Tepper as if he was seeking approval--but that could have been polite inclusion.  If I am Tepper I am sitting right in that seat doing the same thing--but I would be more vocal...When Morgan said, "I was hoping we would not get an offer we'd have to accept..." (paraphrasing)--that is his gut talking.  Listen to your gut--don't let circumstances prevent the gut from being heard.  Trust the gut.  Reason?  He knew the draft would play out if they got Tmac.  He knew they would get an edge in round 2.  After that, they could get a RB and S on day 3.

11 hours ago, Bear Hands said:

Seems like Ez, JTT, & Scourton were targets. Unsure how they stacked but they had a 1st round grade on Nic. Good stuff. 

And they were targeting Princely for a while - Dan wanted him badly.

Really good stuff

My rough place for Scourton (based on a compilation of several prospect rankings) was late first, so I did not research him much.  I nearly forgot about him.  His college production his final year was not elite--but that seems to be the system.  I noticed that (at Tex AM) he had outside contain a lot, and was not rushing the QB--that means the CBs were probably in man coverage.  So I think he could be good in this system.  Princely?  I had him going in the middle of the second round; he was my hope once we took TMac.  Most of the mocks I saw had him going in the 40-48 range.  When we traded up, I had forgotten about Scourton (or did not know that much about him) and I thought we would draft Princely.  I was actually a bit disappointed because I think Princely will be a very good Edge.  I would not be surprised to see both statistically challenge the first round Edge players.

58 minutes ago, rayzor said:

very nice read, btw. nice to see all that shaking out. i think the TE room will be ok.

I found it interesting that Evero would mention DJ Johnson and fail to mention the rookies.  Not that means anything about the rookies, but I can only think of Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy--both became relevant in year 3.  I think he gets cut, but mentioning a player in that manner with 1/2 sack and 25 tackles in 2 years is a bit strange. 

13 minutes ago, rebelrouser said:

Walker and the other edge rushers would have been a bad pick at 8. The real question is whether we should have traded back. 

The Rams gave us that opportunity.

More about Ransom, 4th round, pick 122.

I found this to be very interesting--look how they used him at Ohio State--

Some of us had him as a Strong Safety, but I just think he is a hybrid. I mean, 60% of the snaps last year he had deep safety responsibilities. In 2023, Ransom was deep 53% of snaps.  Note how that transition was gradual when in 2022, where he was deep only 31% of the time-- his primary responsibilities were as a box safety who covered the slot frequently.  While his first duties were that of a box safety in 2022, he evolved into a deep safety with some slot coverage abilities.  

He is described as very smart, and you can see how Ohio State gave him responsibilities that require a very versatile skill set and level of intelligence.  I think, when all the dust settles, Ransom will be our steal of the draft.  Horn is right there with him. 

I find it interesting that TMac was shown here practicing without gloves.  Is that a new approach to improving hands because the gloves are so sticky?  

If you think about the draft and evaluated the talent at each position and rate them by round, you see what the Panthers did--get the best WR in the draft.  in round 2, you had WRs like Bech and Tre Harris going--meanwhile, the Panthers grabbed Scourton (late first round grade) and Princely (expected to be drafted in the middle of the second round).   Bech and Harris were projected to be third rounders.  

If you evaluate the draft by your expectations of the performance of the talent, you are guessing and trying for clicks.  However, if you understand the depth of talent at each position and align that with needs,  the strategy becomes the issue--not a subjective guess.  Did the Panthers address WR and Edge wisely, considering the players likely to be available?  Yes.  

Ask yourself this:  In the Panther system, is it possible that Scourton would be a better edge than Walker?  I think he is a better fit.  Princely?  Better fit.  

Morgan had an excellent draft.  When you see Ransom play S, you will be convinced that it was a Home Run.  That pick was solid and he will be here for a long time.

There are times during the prolonged, pre-draft process that you abandon your gut feelings and allow yourself to be persuaded by popular opinion.  My gut was more consistent with what Morgan et al did than my conclusions.  Here is why (my theory):

1. With social media, one opinion is often repeated until it seems like the majority. The more you see it, the more you feel that your gut was wrong.  You second guess and conform at times.  In January, if you told me TMac would be there at 8, I would have been very interested because there weren't other WRs like him and he was dominant on a bad team.  I let the comments about film, questions about separation, etc. sway my opinion.  I started comparing him to Kelvin Benajamin in my head (work ethic). So I took him off my board.

2.  Morgan said something rather profound (parphrasing): "We did not want to be restricted by need."  IMO, the biggest needs were Edge, S, WR.  We assume that the biggest need is aligned with the first overall pick in most situations.  Everyone was talking about Jalon Walker because Micah Parsons is a similar beast and Abdul Carter would be off the board.   However, as a former coach at Salisbury High School and someone who vaguely knew Walker's father before he was born, I still could not see the fit here.  I think Walker is a great person and will be a good pro, but he did not fill our needs.  TMac was the best player who filled a primary need and we could not find another TMac-type player in the draft.  However, there would be second round Edges that were, in my view, potentially as good NFL players.  The first through early third rounds were loaded with edges. 

3. Since edge was our biggest need, Morgan added 2--one in the second and one in the third.  They mentioned referring to statistics to see the likelihood of a player being available at 55 as opposed to 59, guiding their trade practices, for example.  I noticed the talent grades did not drop as much for edge players into early round three and the WR market dropped rapidly.  Morgan mentioned that they only had 3 second round WRs on their board, which is why TMac in round 1 was smart.  I also posted the following stats from the internet and it is never wrong:

First-round picks in the NFL Draft have a higher success rate than those in the second or third rounds. Whilethe first round boasts a success rate of around 58%, the second round is nearly as good at 49%. However, the third round sees a significant drop, with only a 25% success rate.   

So let's do math. 

• If you draft 1 edge at #8 he has (since it is early in the round) about a 60% chance of being successful.  Morgan would earn 6 success tokens for his Edge need.
• If you draft an edge in the second, Morgan would earn 5 success tokens for his edge need.
• If you draft an edge in the third, Morgan earns 2.5 success tokens for his edge need.
• So Morgan gets the draft's WR unicorn in the first round and by using the second and third round selections, addresses the biggest need by collecting 7.5 success tokens instead of 6.  

Morgan has a high probability of being successful with 2 of 3 of the teams' biggest needs.  He was not needs driven, however, he was market driven.  Supply and demand.  He was smart.

Had we drafted Walker, a player who is a stud and can be most effective as an ILB with versatility, I am not sure we successfully addressed the need.  Other players with first round talent either lacked college productivity or had red flags.  We would HAVE to target one of the 3 WRs the Panthers had listed as second round possibilities (I am guessing Higgins and Burden III and Beck--all far inferior to TMac).  Higgins and Burden III were drafted before they were within trade range and it is not surprising that happened--leaving the Panthers with a only Beck at pick 57.  Putting that in perspective, Edge Scourton was taken at pick 51 and Mike Green was taken at pick 59. However, there were 5 edge players taken in the second round.  There were 6 edge players taken in round 3. 

Value

TMac was rated #4 by PFF and J. Walker was rated #25.  Meanwhile Beck (WR), the only second round WR available in round 2 (I should point out that Tre Harris was rated by PFF at #66, and he was taken in the mid second) was rated 40.  Had we taken an edge in round 1, it is likely we would have ended up with J Walker (#25) and in round 2 Beck (#40).  Instead, we drafted TMac (#4) and Scourton (PFF #29) and Princely (PFF #50).

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2025-nfl-draft-board-big-board

In terms of trade value points, the PFF scores value Morgan's first and second round vs. the probably first and second round (had we taken Walker and then the best WR available in round 2 Beck):

So you see, Morgan ended up, using the PFF ranking system, doubling the value he got from the first two picks than if he had taken Walker instead of TMac and then drafted the best WR left at pick 51 or 57.

In terms of what actually happened, TMac was drafted at #8 and Scourton was taken at #51--this suggests that the Panthers got great value vs. the PFF rankings.  Walker was taken at #15, (10 places higher than his rankings) and Beck was taken at 58, (18 places lower than his rankings.)  So how did Morgan do if you compare drafting Walker/WR vs TMac/Edge?

So Morgan's value was still 24% higher than it would have been had he drafted Walker. 

Of course, this does not factor in trades, etc.  but you get the idea.

19 hours ago, WhoKnows said:

To be fair, the UDFAs being discussed at the start are the top UDFAs who get the largest guaranteed numbers. A quick google found an article from 2016 saying that 20% of the 500+ UDFAs made the week 1 roster. 2-3 per team. The top UDFAs draws are thinking mainly about team fits to make the roster where salaries dwarf the $250k. The non-top UDFAs are happy to chase the money and just want a shot, but those guys weren’t part of the original discussion about the highest guarantees being paid out.

Good stuff.  Interesting.

On 5/23/2025 at 4:09 PM, frankw said:

Sounds like some NBA players.

Morgan has taken a big gamble with Center. Unnecessarily IMO. We'll see how it plays out.

If Mays had not played well last year, I and credit Hunt and Lewis for some of that, he would have done something at C--not a great draft for it.  I guess he figured that we could get by with Mays and Corbett for a season.  I hope Mays continues to improve.

On 5/23/2025 at 11:59 AM, PNW_PantherMan said:

Honestly that's not even a guy you want as a backup.  The last thing you want is your safety valve to be made of glass.  I'd take another player with less talent that can finish a season.

I am all for playing vets in their primes, but when they show signs of going on the decline, cut them and develop some young players.  I really think they are doing this with the OL--the only reason we kept Corbett, the way I understand it, is due to the contract--it was not beneficial to cut him.  Might as well see what he has left and then make the move.

13 hours ago, Camp Fodder said:

If you are an ufda you want to go to a team you have a chance to make versus going to a contender that dont need you 

That is the other side of the coin and certainly should be the first consideration.  However, most UDFAs don't make the roster and $250K right out of college is security.  I would also assume that the team that offered that kinda money wants me more that the others.  The gave the big bucks to players at positions of need in terms of depth, so if you can rake in $250k AND make the practice squad--you have a shot (and $500K in the bank).

8 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

 

Makes me wonder if eventually the NFL owners will get mad and tighten the rules on UDFA contracts.

I had the same thought.

I think this is a youth movement and this is a sign.  Personally, I see four or five UDFA making this roster for this reason.  And veterans on the back end of their bell-shaped curves are not going to be given depth jobs--only developing talent.  That is how I would treat the bottom 20 spots, anyway.

They want to see what they have in camp first, which is smart.  I think the following players should be concerned (and the players who will take their jobs):

• David Moore WR (Jimmy Horn, sixth round pick)
• Hunter Renfrow WR (Kobie Hudson, Jacolby George)
• Yosh Nijman OT (Michael Tarquin)
• Jarrett Kingston OG (Luke Kandra--if both play well, I would not be surprised to see Zavala traded--he played well last year and has some value)
• Amare Barno Edge/OLB (Mapalo Mwansa--foreign player with some upside who does not count against the 53--no brainer for Panthers).
• DJ Johnson Edge/OLB  (With the additions of Princely, Scourton, and Jones to add to Wonnum, I see no way DJ makes the roster)
• LaBryan Ray DE (Jared Harrison-Hunt.  After adding Wharton to go with Brown and Robinson, Ray or Crumedy will be cut--or both).
• Shy Tuttle DE/DT  (Cam Jackson, fifth round pick--At DT, we signed veteran in Brown III and drafted a NT.  DE is crowded as well. I was surprised we re-signed him, frankly, but he is insurance should Jackson fail to step up. 
• Jaden Crumedy DE  (Harrison-Hunt is his competition, but he is also competing with Ray and possibly Tuttle).
• Akayleb Evans CB (Mike Reid, Corey Thornton.  Evans played OK at the end of the season.  He was not a liability.)
• S. Bartholomew CB (Mike Reid, Corey Thornton.  Bartholomew drew some difficult assignments last season down the stretch, but in the few plays I saw him, he was decent--got beat by some great throws and held his own.)
• Jacoby Windmon and Jon Rhattigan, ILBs (Martin-Scott, but watch out for Tuasivi, Nomura. should compete with these two, but all seem destined for the PS or being cut.  LB is suddenly a crowded room.  They like Cherelus who had a 63.3 PFF grade on 158 snaps--not bad.  Rozeboom was just added from the Rams and he should be the third ILB behind Jewell and Wallace.  Special teams will be the deciding factor if they keep 5.)
• Nick Scott S (Jack Henderson, Trevian Thomas, or Isaac Gifford--Scott is 30 and struggled in pass protection and against the run--otherwise, he was great.  He is insurance and his contract features no guaranteed money.  I fully expect Gifford, Henderson, or Thomas to take the fourth safety spot and one could stick as a special teamer--they may want a pure free safety for cover three packages (if we run them?), but in Henderson they get a player who is fairly similar to the other 3--Moehrig, Richardson, and Ransom.  Regardless, it is highly likely that an UDFA makes the roster at S)

Best chances (in my view from the outside looking in) for an UDFA to make the roster:

• Kicker:  Fitzgerald (90% sure)
• Safety: Henderson or Thomas or Gifford (75% sure that one will make the roster--about 30% sure that 2 will)
• Cornerback: Reid or Thornton (50% sure that one makes the roster; confident that both end up on PS if not on roster)
• Offensive Guard:  (50% sure that Kandra wins a spot.  Kingston and Kandra battle it out the for backup LG job)
• Offensive Tackle:  (35% sure that Nijman--29-- loses his job to Tarquin.  Cutting him frees about $1.5m.

For these reasons, I see 4-5 UDFA making the team.  S and K--near locks.

McCarthy ahead of Drake Maye?  Well, they mentioned the offense he will play in--compare that to Maye's offense--but this is not really about the offenses is it?  A player who won the job in a difficult situation and has played well (over a 70 PFF grade in 2024) with little offense behind him falls behind a guy who played well in college and has not taken an NFL snap?  Are we evaluating the player or the player in the system?  I'd take Maye over McCarthy all day long if they were in the same offense.