carpanfan96

Teams generally move when they meet a combination of factors. Value at pick vs value at pick they are moving to combined with the value of the other picks in the trade. You'll see two bad teams make massive trades and you'll see good teams make those trades as well. 49ers vs bears moving up for QB's. Ones a poorly run team and the other isn't. There's a combination of factors involved like how many players have first round grades for a team and if they move back is the value there for them and their board. Hope all that makes sense, it's late and work was stupid today.

I think they suck at line play grading, but even still... They've had him ranked in the top 10 among edge rushers. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-edge-defender-rankings-week-13-micah-parsons-myles-garrett-2022 :shrugs:

Pff wouldn't know line play if it smacked them in the face. Lol

I gave 4 examples that followed the same pattern. 2021 49ers trade for Lance. 1000 point difference. 2 first and 3rd Middle 2nd is worth 400 points, Middle 3rd 200 points. Bears in 2021. Point difference 370. Future 1st and 4th. Same pattern. Same valuation. Need I continue? That's 6 examples and all follow the same point pattern. As for the videos, said I couldn't do it till tonight or the morning. As for the other part, I've proven by normal stats and advanced stats that he's top 10. :shrugs:

He's a much much better fit at 3-4 OLB imo. He's decent in coverage and it helps cover him in certain areas.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/34125688/ranking-nfl-top-10-edge-rushers-2022-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks-best-defensive-ends-linebackers It's done by nfl executives and guess what... he was top 10 on pass rushers. Hmmm, think I'll take the opinion of nfl executives over fans on a board. :shrugs:

Go back to the 2021 draft. Eagles move up from 12th to 6th. Difference in value of the picks in 2021 was 379 points. A 2nd round value. Eagles gave up a 22 1st round pick. There ya go. It's the same for every single team, it's how the draft works

Not just my rating, this is from nfl executives. he's a Top 10 edge rusher and one of the best young players in the NFL. He ranked top 25 of young defensive players and I've already linked multiple articles in this thread showing this.

Didn't say that, said that's how the valuation works out and give proof of said valuation.

It's not just about sacks. He's 4th in pressures since drafted. He's 12 in defensive stops this season. Top ten in sacks as well to be a kicker. He's a top ten dline player. Yeeesh

If your talking normal trading it's because of what I mentioned earlier. A future pick's point slot isn't guaranteed, it's 1-32 possibilities. A player to player trade or a trade within the same draft has a defined value.

I get the value of the trade in a rebuild but to think 12+ sacks is just replaceable so easy is actually quite crazy.

The videos are from draft videos after drafts and not much time to go hunting for them right now. However we can use draft trades from multiple teams last draft. Panthers 137 to 94 (value difference is 86.5 points) 4th round value difference for future 3rd pick. Colts 179 to 96th (value difference is 96.5 points) Top of the 4th round value for future 3rd Vikings 156th to 118 (value difference is 29 points) Late 5th value for future 4th.

It's not easy to replace 12 sacks. 8 players have 12 sacks or more this season.

I'll look for it tonight or in the morning, been busy at work with a full network refit.

What else is he going to say? Why yes I've spoken with NFL teams about leaving cause I hate recruiting. Lol

There's also an ESPN insider article from Matt Miller This information comes from NFL scouts and GM's. There's other post draft interviews with gms who have said the same things as well.

First on players, it depends on where the pick is at in the first. I go off what nfl teams do not fans. Heck there are teams that limit there scouts to 15 players for a first round grade. There's reasoning for this as well. It's legit how the NFL scouting world works, this next draft has 14-17 players that actually legit have a first round grade. It's also not an exact science because scouts miss all the damn time. There's articles on this and interviews with GM's talking about this.

Not gonna quote everyone on this but coaches and gms have talked about it. A future first is worth a pick in the middle of its round divided by 2 and that goes down the further out it is. So next year's first from the Rams would have a draft value of a pick in the middle of the 2nd round, the one after that would have a value of a third round pick. That's how draft pick trade valuation works. Every single team uses similar valuation charts

It's not bunk, Draft pick trade value goes down by a round if its in a future draft. That's how the valuation is done in the NFL. The Rams who are horrible this year, could theoretically win the superbowl next year and it's first round pick be 32nd. Since most drafts usually only have about 10-15 prospects that teams have a true 1st round grade on, it significantly lowers the value of future picks because of uncertainty.

https://www.panthers.com/news/brian-burns-top-10-pass-rusher-espn-poll-2022 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/nfl/panthers/.amp/gm-report/nfl-execs-view-brian-burns-as-a-top-10-pass-rusher

Over the last four seasons, burns win rate on pash rush is top 15. (you can't get that high of a pass rush win with garbage time stats) 2019 - 4th 2020 - 5th [9th in double team %] 2021 - top 20 2022 - 15th He's also 11th in sacks since 2019 as well. NFL executives have him as a top ten pass rusher in the NFL, the stats show this as well. You absolutely don't trade a top 10 edge rusher for what's essentially 3 2nd round picks.

Most teams don't view future firsts as firsts. Trade chart or value wise was 2 second rounds and a 3rd or 3 seconds. Burns is double teamed a lot and still got 12.5 sacks. It's hard to find that production in the NFL. 8 players in the NFL with 12+ sacks. Most are on stacked dline teams

That's how you double a wr, safety coverage over the top in cover 2. Which was called on one of the throws. Quarters was the other one that also should've had safety help over the top. Safety blew one of the coverages completely and was late moving on the other. Neither of those two throws would've been completed the way they were if coverage was correct

That combined with the fact that Wilks did as well as he's done with a fairly bad team, none of his coaches really or his system in place. I'd not be shocked if Wilks gets the job.