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PanthersNC1984

In the last 30 years only three QBs picked number one overall have won a SB. Stop this Burrow talk.

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5 hours ago, ickmule said:

So we don’t need Cam? He’s a former #1 pick.....

You certainly missed the point,

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57 minutes ago, Shocker said:

There is no way in hell we are going to get Burrow.  Period.

I don't even think he's that big of a deal. Unless they've got some OC that can build on what Brady did with him, Cinderella is going to lose her shoe. Burrow will turn back into a JAG like he was before Brady got to him.

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Just for fun, how many #1 players have been on a team that won the SB? Non QBs,. that is?

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5 hours ago, rayzor said:

I don't think that's the logic. You take the best player you can at whatever position you're at. Cam was far and away the best at 1. 

I think the lesson should be don't feel it necessary to trade up to get a QB at 1 thinking it will result in a championship. 

I just don't want Marty mortgaging the future again. 

That wasn't the premise given...but my second pt was basically what you said...

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6 hours ago, bull123 said:

Von Miller, julio Jones, jj watt, cam Jordan, and Patrick Peterson all went after cam 

wouldn’t say he was far and away the best at #1

If what you need was a quarterback and that is the most important position in the game then yes yes he was. And even in hinesight the team would probably do it again.

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For this stat to even matter, I'd need more information.

Specifically 2 things:

a) How many teams picked 1 over all in the last 30 years and won the superbowl

b) positional breakdown of all positions drafted 1 over all, and how many of those each won a superbowl in the last 30 years.

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BzA8Drt.png

Took a very quick glance comparing the two, so if I missed something.  My bad.

Left is list of teams drafting 1st over all last 30 years.

Right is list of super bowl winners last 30 years.

Conclusion?  Obviously there is just one. If you want to win a superbowl while drafting 1st over all, you must draft 1st over all at least twice in 3 years or less, and one MUST be a QB.

Yes, my spreadsheet skills are crappy.  Come at me.

I only looked specifically at players drafted 1st over all that won a superbowl on the team that drafted them.  So Eli Manning/Drew Brees did not make my list.  As they were traded for, it didnt seem an adequate comparison.

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8 hours ago, cookinbrak said:

Just for fun, how many #1 players have been on a team that won the SB? Non QBs,. that is?

Interesting question.

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4 hours ago, Tepper's Chest Hair said:

BzA8Drt.png

Took a very quick glance comparing the two, so if I missed something.  My bad.

Left is list of teams drafting 1st over all last 30 years.

Right is list of super bowl winners last 30 years.

Conclusion?  Obviously there is just one. If you want to win a superbowl while drafting 1st over all, you must draft 1st over all at least twice in 3 years or less, and one MUST be a QB.

Yes, my spreadsheet skills are crappy.  Come at me.

I only looked specifically at players drafted 1st over all that won a superbowl on the team that drafted them.  So Eli Manning/Drew Brees did not make my list.  As they were traded for, it didnt seem an adequate comparison.

Minor detail: For the purposes of this discussion I would tend to look at Eli and Brees differently from each other. Brees played whole seasons for the Chargers before going to NO. Ya Eli was traded, but it was a draft day trade. He played his entire career for the Giants. I don’t see how being traded for as part of the draft makes you meaningfully dfferentfrom these other qb’s.

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21 hours ago, PanthersNC1984 said:

Initially I was on the trade for Burrow train, but upon further review, Cincy can have him. I went back and did some research and guess what. Three yes ONLY three QBs that were picked number 1 overall in the last thirty years have gone on and won a SB. Eli and Peyton Manning and Drew Bledsoe. That’s it! Guess what?! I know this will blow your mind but you can win with a QB picked after the first overall pick and still have great success. OMG, like what a revelation guys! Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Brees, Mahomes, Nick Foles for god sakes.. the list goes on and on, you can have a great QB that isn’t picked number one overall. 

Edit: should be 4 QBs not 2 :

The 2 4 QBs picked number one that won as starters says a lot more about the teams drafting than the ability of the QB themselves. in the last 30 years, excluding QBs taken last two years because it's too early to judge, that's 2 4 out of 15. Couple of the other 13 were really good QBs that couldn't stay healthy- Palmer, Luck. Most of the rest shouldn't have been drafted number one- Carr, Winston, George , Couch, Smith, Bradford, Russell.

Then there's, sigh, Vick. Sigh. After Vick got arrested, I defended him saying nobody was stupid enough to lose a 100 mil contract and another 100 mil in endorsements to fight dogs. ######## idiot. After that, the Falcons boards had to create a Vick forum for all the Vick threads, and if you referred to Vick on the main forum, the thread was automatically moved. We took to using YKW [you know who] on the main board to be able to mention him when the thread wasn't about him. But I digress.

 

Also, if you look at the QBs taken 2-32 in that time period, again, excluding  last couple of years, only 4 of the 54 QBs drafted have won a super bowl.  That doesn't look much different than 2 4 of 15. if you do the search for rounds 3-7, odds are actually much worse for finding a QB. There's 6 out of 300.

Those numbers are going to change after this next super bowl.   And they're going to change the next few years- Wentz, Watson and Jackson all look capable of winning a super bowl if they can stay healthy. If Mahomes loses in two weeks, add him to that list. Cam and Ryan certainly could have won a super bowl, sigh, again. Both Cam and Ryan could still win one.

Think the real takeaway should be it's really hard to find a great QB. 

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2 hours ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

Minor detail: For the purposes of this discussion I would tend to look at Eli and Brees differently from each other. Brees played whole seasons for the Chargers before going to NO. Ya Eli was traded, but it was a draft day trade. He played his entire career for the Giants. I don’t see how being traded for as part of the draft makes you meaningfully dfferentfrom these other qb’s

I wouldn't say someone would be wrong for using him in this conversation.  But for me personally, when the Chargers were basically forced to trade him..that skews things.  You don't get market value when a player forces you into a trade vs the trade taking place organically.  Chargers lost 1st over all, got 4th over all and a 3rd round of the same year, and 1st and 5th of following year.  Any trade like that wouldn't take place normally moving from 4th->1st.

So, for me personally, since the Giants got Eli gifted to him under non-normal situations, I just chose to not use him.

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I saw this “likely” cost of us moving to #1...GTFOH

2020 1st +

2020 2nd +

2021 1st +

2022 1st +

Cam Newton

200.gif

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17 hours ago, micnificent28 said:

This is a poor analysis. If your gonna say only 3 of those guys have won the super bowl over the last 30 years you have to also somehow how many number 1 picks made it to the super bowl and lost, made the playoffs. Then to give context show the same numbers for the number 2 pick, and on down. So are you saying a quarterback picked 17th has better odds at winning a super bowl thannumebr 1?

The situation your trying to present holds no weight on if a player wins the super bowl or not seeing as a million different other factors go into super bowls,teams around them Injuries and your odds every year are what 1 out of 32. Stop this.

His numbers aren’t even right. 10 of the last 30 have been won by 1st overall picks and that’s the largest segment. He forgot Aikman, Elway and Young (yes, he was going to be the #1 pick but took the huge USFL deal). That’s 20% of the last 30 he just plain missed. He brought up Foles, but that’s like Hostetler and Simms. Wentz had the Eagles at 11-2 and was playing at an MVP level. Just because Foles finished well doesn’t mean you ignore Wentz. Same with Simms. They weren’t #1 overall but both were top 7 picks.

I mean it’s ridiculously lopsided for SB winners (and likely losers) to be 1st overall or just plain first rounders. Outside of the 1st you have crazy exceptions and then Tom Brady, so grabbing Eason, Fromm, Love, etc. even in the 2nd is a shot in the dark of producing a SB winner. Taking Burrow or Tua or Lawrence and Fields next year is far more likely to produce a title.

The funny thing is that @Mr. Scot posted earlier, #1 overall picks are typically going to really bad teams so the fact that 1 out of 3 SBs has been won by 1st overall picks in the past 30 years gives even more credibility to taking QBs early.

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10 hours ago, Tepper's Chest Hair said:

For this stat to even matter, I'd need more information.

Specifically 2 things:

a) How many teams picked 1 over all in the last 30 years and won the superbowl

b) positional breakdown of all positions drafted 1 over all, and how many of those each won a superbowl in the last 30 years.

As far as I can tell, a positional player picked #1 overall has ZERO Super Bowl rings for the team that picked him in the last 30 years.  Interestingly enough, positional players taken #2 overall have 2 Super Bowl rings in that span.  If the 49ers win it this year, that will be 3 in the last 30 years.

The last time a #1 overall positional player won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him was Orlando Pace in the 1997 draft.  Before that it was Russell Maryland in the 1991 draft.  Prior to that you have to go all the way back to Ed Too Tall Jones in the 1974 draft.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/rounds/round_1

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