SetfreexX

It AMAZES me how quickly YOU GUYS FORGET -- Darnold was Plan D, hell maybe even Plan F. 

*We backed ourselves into a corner saying we needed an upgrade at QB (all the Teddy Slander)

*Tried to trade Teddy for Stafford

*Tried to trade for Watson (prior to allegations)

*SF traded up to #3 taking a 3rd QB off the board before we select

Don't buy into the social media videos, and the love shown towards the acquisition, Darnold is ''draft insurance'' does he have potential sure, but are you ready to hitch almost 20M to that for his 5th year option? We could draft a QB as talented or more so (Fields / Lance with + athleticism and passing ability) and have him on a rookie deal for the next several 4 years, with the 5th year option.

DJ Moore / Brian Burns / Taylor Moton -- are three guys we know will be getting PAID in the next 1-2 seasons, extending Robbie is also an item to address as he's in the final year. 

Do you really want to have 5th year money tied up in Darnold when he's still a HUGE question mark, or have rookie QB money tied up in a top prospect with a chance to build the best possible team around him while at a rookie's pay grade? (Hint - Follow the money)

Not to mention IF Darnold is just above average do you want to be in a position where we've played our way out of a future to pick, only to have to pay an avg to above avg QB franchise money if we get past the 5th year option or we'd be looking at starting over again in just two years searching for a QB, and we'd be at about the mid-way point for Rhule's contract.

I'm okay with Darnold if a top QB doesn't fall, I will lose some faith if we pass on a QB at #8. We have ammunition to trade back at the top of 2, and 3 to add more picks this year where the talent drop off between prospects is less severe. 

*I could see us trading up

*I could see us staying put

*I could also see us trading back

This all depends on how it goes Thursday night, that flexibility is why we traded for Darnold, if the board falls our way he's 4M on the books if we keep him to start in 21', we trade TB to a QB needy team (potentially DEN), and we have our guy who can take time developing. 

Some names to look at post draft for additional cap relief based on positions drafted:

(Numbers rounded for a quick summary)

Justin Burris - 4.8M cap hit / 1M in dead money = 3.8M cap available to create

Frankie Luvu - 1M cap hit / 180K in dead money = just under 1M

Cutting / trading TB would free up 2M in cap = around 2M

Extending a guy like Donte' or even Robbie would also create some additional relief

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/cap/

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I could see Burris being the easiest to move on from if we draft a Safety high enough:

Chinn / Rookie / - Depth - Franklin / Hartsfield

Could also see TB traded as we CAN afford to keep him, no value in a straight release

Regular season wins, versus post-season wins, that's where it starts to matter. Similar to how SEA fell off when they paid Russell and the L.O.B. was disassembled, we saw it most recently with PHI / LAR.

When you pay guys that are elevated due to the incredible talent around them / coaching, versus them elevating lesser talent when you can't afford to keep everyone you find yourself in a rough spot. 

At some point the ''next man up to reset the market'' approach has to come to a head you'd think, or at least separate QB salary from the other 52, no matter the resolution I think we could see some ''radical'' types of ideas / situations arise in the next 5 years. 

4 hours ago, MHS831 said:

I am going to revisit what I said some time ago, before we (and I) started praying for a T.

There are starting tackles in early round 2.

We need a #1 CB so that Jackson is not locked up on the opposition's #1.  That makes both outside CBs better.  We can't find that #1 CB in rounds 2-7.

Did we sign a free agent who can play #1?  We signed a 32-year old nickel and a gamble.

Bradbury was a 2nd round choice.

Thing is Little had some flashes in pass pro / the run game this past season and even as a rookie -- I remember a few plays of him pancaking defenders in the open field. 

Issue was health his rookie year, and in his sophomore year he just didn't have any level of consistency, he's a bust to date due to the compensation given up to get him, I go back to the fact that Moton should have been the LT, and Ford should've been drafted to play RT.

We should have moved Daryl inside, especially off the injury.  

1 hour ago, Call Me James said:

Former.

Jets. 

 

You see where I'm going. 

 

Jets drafted Darnold....

Many Huddlers have annointed Darnold as the franchise QB and would pass on Fields for SeWell or Slater who is built like a G, but played T....

This is Huddle logic at it's finest. 

49 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

We had a qb and no line and never had back to back winning seasons.  In fact we got said qb killed.  Its a happy medium we are trying to reach

But we at least had a SB appearance with a FA Tackle, Matt Moore and Clausen had Gross, and did nothing. It will always START and end with the QB in this era. 

You can't hide behind a top defense, and ball control, because eventually you will run into ta team that can score. Look at all the playoff teams the last few years, they all have THEIR QB. 

If you guys are sold on Sam Darnold you're in for some disappointment. We don't have an answer at QB yet. We will have cap to pay a FA LT moving forward, and this years class is deep there. 

Use your head. 

55 minutes ago, Pup McBarky said:

Joe Thomas has 33.75 inch arms. Arm length is highly over-weighted as a metric. It's not unimportant, but it's not a determining factor in failure or success. 

They had Joe Thomas and NO QB, for a decade +. Give me the QB 10 out of 10.

I consider this checking the temperature of the room, nothing more. No need to trade back until draft night. 

Mods if I'm out of line or something like that delete I guess**

@ellis-- Don't let me down!!

1 hour ago, Trainwreck said:

We really need someone that can rush from the interior. Twyman had a good pro day. 

Fox, and Matos -- folks should remember we'll be in Nickel most of the time we're talking 65+ % and much higher, as 11 personnel is the new ''base'' offense. 

Nickel Pass (2 DL, 4 LB, 5 DB) - Burns / Matos or Fox / Brown / Reddick 

Nickel Run (Traditional - 4 DL, 2 LB, 5 DB) - Burns / Roy or Jones / Brown / Gross Matos or Fox

We have a lot of personnel flexibility -- this isn't even taking into consideration the Odd fronts we'll be able to build upon that we saw last year, we are well suited to line up in 3-4 // 33 fronts. 

DL - Brown / Jones or PJ Johnson (345 lbs) / Roy 

EDGE - Burns / Reddick 

Off LB - Shaq / Perryman

DB - Jackson / Bouye

S - Chinn / Burris / Rookie / TBD Vet

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I honestly can't wait to see what we do on defense.

1 hour ago, joemac said:

Fitt-Dawg plugging up all the holes on this roster before the draft.  This stuff is SOOOOO refreshing.  Its like night and day from the Hurney/Rivera regime.  Have we EVER been this active in free agency before?  

Nope, because...''The answer is on the roster''. Also we'd blown a ton of cap on HB's and CJ Johnson at the time. 

26 minutes ago, irrevalentfalconsfan said:

I don't see Sewell getting past Cincy.

Cincy has Jonah Williams a top LT from the 2019 class -- believe he was first off the board, and they signed a FA RT with a respectable rep if memory serves. 

I can easily see CIN going skill (Chase / Pitts), but I can also see them stockpiling OL, but LT isn't their issue, it's interior OL. 

1 minute ago, irrevalentfalconsfan said:

Same. QB isn't a pressing need- Matt has 3-4 years left in the tank. Way I see it, we take Pitts, then get Najee if he's there at 35 or Chubba Howard in the 3rd.

We're taking a LT most likely within the first two picks, and I'd wager a IOL in the 3rd / 4th. I think the 1st selection is left to up to:

1) QB if a guy falls

2) SeWell

3) BPA

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I don't see Slater head and shoulders above the T's available at the top of the 2nd, and being 6'3 / 315, to me he's built more like a Guard stature wise. 

BIG takeaway and not directly related to us was Jimmy's commentary on small school prospects, versus a guy like Surtain from ALA who's been coached up all his life. 

I feel like I heard / read about something similar this week, and I had the same thoughts but forgot about it until today. 

If ATL drafts a QB after committing what they did to Matt Ryan it would be a waste of a pick, as that QB is going to sit at least a year, and likely two. 

Ryan's contract doesn't have a viable out until 2023 - 2021 Dead Cap - 70M // 2022 Dead Cap - 40.5M // 2023 Dead Cap - 15.6M

And even then that is a lot in 2023, and he'd still be younger than Brady is right now at that point. IF you HAVE a QB that's been healthy overall as he has, you build around them until they can't play. Smart money trades back for more picks, or BPA. 

If they want a young QB to look at Day 3 where they might get a better value. 

IDL - Brown -320s / Jones - 320s / Roy - 330s  / PJ Johnson - 345 --  

DE - Gross-Matos / Fox / Herron / Larkin

EDGE - Burns / Reddick / Haynes / Miller / Luvu

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I won't get into the off-ball LBs, I just wanted a look at what we'll have up front, I like what we are doing to date. Solid, solid pieces with the young core mixed in. 

5 minutes ago, top dawg said:

I've been waiting for the Hooker domino to fall, but he might be too broken down. 

Safety value in the open market on non-stars is pretty low, too easy to replace via the draft for much less. Most teams have ignored this knowing that this class is pretty deep at the Safety position. 

Veteran FA Safeties will get signed post draft by team's who didn't have the boards fall how they want for a young prospect they're interested in. It's been like this the past few years for FA Safeties. 

Conversely we've thrown a good bit at the DT position low key this off-season, this is the 3rd DT I think, and Fox can play inside on Nickel downs. Read a tweet from a reputable aka ''official twitter'' NFL source / media member that teams are down on the DT depth in this class. 

Ultimately I think a deal is struck post draft, but I think our only real partner for a trade would be DEN. 

NE - Has Cam, so why would you trade for TB

WAS - Signed Fitz for 10M

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Outside of a surprise bidder those are the three QB needy teams, reports are that DEN is NOT interested in a trade up, due to the cost to get to #4 (Swapping 1sts, likely 22' & 23' 1sts, and a day 3 pick in one of those years or this one). Drew Lock still has about as much potential as most here want to give Darnold, they could stand pat and take BPA, and trade for TB to improve their QB depth. They have a defensive minded HC in FanGio so this might be a fit for that offense.  

Since TB is likely to leave us on the hook for his salary even in a trade, I can't see us getting more than a 4th and maybe a conditional late round 6 or 7. 

12 minutes ago, Daddy_Uncle said:

I'm not relying on Erving to be the answer. If a top tackle is there you take him. It has been an overlooked position since Gross retired and the results have been obvious. Can't just keep plugging in average or less than average veterans every year and hope that's good enough. Its not in the NFL. You have to have a stud left tackle and we should be in great position to get one. Its the hardest position to fill in the draft. So you do it when you can. 

This isn't to say ignore it, it's to say the OL group is deep, so the OBVIOUS pick, may not be THE pick in the first. 

Moton / Trai / Norwell -- some of our best OL in recent times were 2nd, 3rd, and UDFA. I'm not against upgrading the OL.

BUT we don't have to, that's what this is about -- SeWell is the only LT I want at #8 -- Slater does not seem to be heads and shoulders above the rest. At #8 I'd want a little more than that, if we traded back and got him that would be easier to digest. 

A lot of talk of ''If SeWell falls, or Rashawn Slaters the pick'' indulge me for a few...it goes without saying that if you watched the Panthers last season the weak points of the OL were -- LT (Due to Okung being out half the games), and LG -- Chris Reed (UDFA), and Schofield. 

For the most part C - Paradis, RG - John Miller, and RT - Taylor Moton were above average and in Moton's case FT worthy. 

Enter - Cam Erving (2 yrs / 10M / 8M Guarateed), and Pat Elflein (3 yrs / 13.5M / 6M Guaranteed)

These are not break the bank values but they are amounts that suggest the team at least can ''see'' them as starters, especially as quickly as we acted on the acquisitions. 

When you look at LT depth currently - Greg Little / Trent Scott -- Cam Erving should be viewed as an upgrade 

When you look at LG depth currently - Dennis Daley / Guys you likely never heard of -- In this case Elflein is an upgrade over the depth and Chris Reed as a starter last year. 

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With these items in mind and the OL depth in this years class at the top of 2nd and 3rd where we will be, and maybe even into the 4th for IOL help, I really think we are in for a bit of a surprise in the 1st round as we don't HAVE to take a LT in the 1st. 

A few things to think about:

QB - Sam Darnold is likely not the answer, we're also likely going to be good enough with Sam to play our way out of the top 10, which means if we need to make a move on a future QB, we'll have to pull a SF / PHI type of deal to move up down the road. Smart money takes Fields, or Lance if they fall with a year to develop. 

WR - After DJ Moore, and Robbie (more on him in a dew) name a starting caliber receiver...David Moore is nice, but he's a piece to the puzzle, he's a good 3rd guy. Robbie is 30 after this season and is in the final year of his 2y / 20M deal, and is making 12M this season. DJ is coming up on his 5th year option. We will probably be staring guys like - JaMarr Chase / Jaylen Waddle / DeVonta Smith in the face. I could see the argument to select one of these guys as well if a QB is gone. 

TE - Darnold to Arnold sounds fun, and the depth after him is Ian Thomas, and a TE/DE/UDFA in Stephen Sullivan. If Pitts is there, you take Pitts if a QB is gone. 

CB - I'm pretty happy with what we've done here and if we see growth from Pride this could be a solid group - Jackson / Bouye / Pride / Melvin -- we have a nice representation of size / speed / experience, but in a trade back scenario where none of the above are available, we could turn our corner depth into a true strength. 

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So while a lot of the media talk / mock drafts are dialing in on OL, there are some other options available that may surprise a lot of people if called upon on draft night. 

1 minute ago, mrcompletely11 said:

They didn't like what they saw and don't want a massive project 

Smokescreen 

3 hours ago, Ivan The Awesome said:

I'm sorry but if Fields is there at 8, you have to take him. The QB position needs to be addressed on way or another. You don't have the luxury to trade away potential Franchise QB's when you are LOOKING for a Potential Franchise QB. Makes no sense. 

People are dumb, I don't see how soooo many are sold on Darnold, was Gase an issue, sure....but Sam MADE the throws / made the decisions once the ball was snapped. 

To me he's an upgrade in arm talent / willingness to pass past the sticks over TB. Teddy B. is the better QB between the two TODAY. This could change, but I wouldn't bet that on Sam, and I do think our team overall will be better which means we likely play ourselves into a .500 ish record which means we're likely out of any QB race in 2022 unless we pull a 49ers which no one was willing to do this year. 

Fields, or Lance to me should definitely be in play at #8 if there, this is a deep OL class, you take the QB first. 

3 hours ago, shaqattaq said:

Yep, and still work on a long term deal, obviously. FWIW, his 5th yr option would be $11.1M.

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections/

That would be less than and replace Robbie's expiring 12M this season, I think it's a real likely hood we see a receiver come in earlier than some may expect via the draft. 

Robbie will be 30 after this season, so it will be interesting to see what the team decides to do. 

In Fitts' original presser he said once you clear the top half of the first round or so a lot of the prospects have less that separate them. 

If I'm basing a hypothesis off that logic it would make more sense to stay at 8 and make the pick, then use the 2nd and 3rd rounders as ammunition to cultivate additional picks for the rest of the draft. 

I would also not be surprised though unlikely to see us trade up.