Championship teams don't draft their QB in the top 20 picks unless they have already built a contender.
Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Blake Bortles, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, and Peyton Manning are the only 9 to make it to the championship level on a total rebuild over the past 15 seasons. 5 of them reached the SB, and all of them lost in those 15 years to Stafford, Brady, Manning and Brees. All QBs who beat these top 20 QBs were 30 or older with no less than 8 years of NFL experience when they won (average age of 36 with 14 years of experience). Brady was the only one drafted by his SB team.
Peyton Manning (as the OUTLIER) is the only one of these college elite QBs to win a SB with the team that drafted him, and that was almost 20 years ago. And to no surprise, Manning had 8 seasons of experience at the age of 30 when he finally did it.
Cam Newton lasted 8 seasons and was tossed at the age of 30. You could argue Cam Newton stepped into a roster with a winning foundation.
Care to guess who was the next top 20 pick who won a SB for a fresh rebuild of a consistently losing team with a weak roster? You have to go back to the drafts in the 80s to find them. Aikman, Simms, and McMahon. The next ones are drafts with college players from the 60s in Griese, Bradshaw, and Namath. We all know these teams were built on defense and running. Not their QBs.
These media hyped 1st round QBs with teams built around them coming into the NFL will need to last into their 30s to even have a shot at 1 SB championship. These teams with the shiny college QB will not have a chance at a dynasty with QB contracts today.
How much clearer does this need to be? Build a defense and an OL with the draft. Only pay your 9 championship leaders. Target 28 to 30 year old QBs with leadership and clutch traits that they have proven with their NFL play. Make the younger QBs compete to prove they deserve a spot as the back up on the roster. Don't ever draft luxury picks like QBs and CBs in the top 20 picks if your roster has no playoff foundation to stand on. (Exception may be a pro sports pedigree QB like Mannings, Luck or Mahomes, but it's a decade long project.)
There have only been 2 teams to build a dynasty around a QB from the bottom in this passing league since the 80s. Those young QBs came from the 3rd and 6th rounds. The other dynasties had winning rosters before they plugged in their young luxury pick QBs. (Cowboys 5 years with 2 coaches ended by a 2nd year expansion team does not make a dynasty.)
Can we end this hope of a young media hyped 1st round QB to build or turn around a failing franchise? The media is selling you on a mythical unicorn.
Do it right. The consistent championship teams from the past 15 years are not doing it without a defense or OL. They are doing it without drafting a top 20 QB.
