mrcompletely11

Vegas Odds:

Wins 6.5

Playoffs +250

Its getting closer still think we are a year away

Ive come to accept the Tmac pick, it is what it is, but if we are passing up talent because of our coordinator who is on the hottest of hot seat that seems next level stupid

5 minutes ago, ClawOn said:

The pick was a miss. We all agree. Let's move on. 

Picks.  Plural.  

He's officially a bust.  3 picks for a certifiable bust

Just now, jfra78 said:

If there was a trade they would have taken it.

probably right

6 minutes ago, Icege said:

You also think that lead paint chips should be called wall candy. So, respectfully, that's not moving the needle here.

There needs to be a little more than, "I don't like it" to dismiss the entire methodology.

Calling somebody that is 2 of 6 on what they consider deep balls the best passer of the week is fuging insane.  IE its a flawed method especially looking over that list

I dont think he was moving the needle either way but without knowing the details its a curious move.  And I wonder if there was any trade for draft comp on the table?

1 hour ago, Icege said:

re: PFF having Bryce Young as the best deep passer in week 12

Link to original article

Excerpt from the article:

PFF's passing-by-depth report for week 12

NFL Pro's Film Room

Play 1 - Completion to XL running a deep crosser despite multiple penalties by KC on the play

 

Play 2 - Completion to JT with the pass rush closing in

 

Play 3 - Hits David Moore in the hands while taking a shot from new Panthers' DL Ter'shawn Wharton for what would've been a TD

 

Play 4 - This is the first play that folks could attempt to pin on Bryce if not for one detail... this was 3rd & 10 with 9sec left in Q2 (as seen in the screenshot showing the list of plays). Bryce had to air mail it out of the back of the end zone so that there was still time to attempt a field goal before halftime.

 

Play 5 - Bryce places this ball where only David Moore can get it (spoiler: Moore does not get it). I've included the other angle as I was confident that some would try to hyperfocus on this play as why PFF was wrong in their evaluation. It's worth noting though that this wasn't a drop

 

 

Play 6 - Sideline shot to XL but he drops it. Again, both angles included to avoid bad faith misrepresentation.

 

 

I think that clearly shows its a flawed method

13 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

So where are you at here?  PFF is fabricating stats to make Bryce look better??

Not at all just trying to understand their data

Bryces ypa was roughly 6.5 ish, which would be bottom 3rd of the nfl.  Again averaging 200 yards 60% so something most certainly isnt adding up with Pff stats

2 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Yeah I was reading an article that said they didn’t count XL’s drop against Bryce, but I took it as drops don’t hurt them but don’t help either and completions are what helps them.
Yeah as @CarolinaLivinjust shared it’s probably a completion to be considered a “positive” play. 

the "positive play" could be referencing not taking a sack.

4 minutes ago, CarolinaLivin said:

This makes me think it is speaking of completed passes. 

its vaguely worded at best, maybe if someone had premium it would help

4 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

This explains some of the data 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-7-signature-stat-spotlight-big-time-throws-and-turnover-worthy-plays

but yeah if you want a deeper look it looks like you need a premium account which I'm sure they charge for. 

This reads that it doesnt take consideration if its incomplete or not, which is kindof stupid.  I could be reading it wrong but that is all it shows

What is a big-time throw?

Throws graded at the higher end of PFF's scale (+1.0, +1.5, and +2.0) are categorized as big-time throws.

A big-time throw is a high-difficulty, high-value pass. They are characterized by excellent ball placement and timing, typically on deeper passes or into tight windows.

These throws can also occur under challenging conditions, such as when a quarterback is under heavy pressure but converts a potential negative into a positive play. Other examples include tight-window throws in the red zone, where space is limited, or perfectly placed 50-yard shots down the field.

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

It's PFF and they explain it.  There are definitely some gray areas as we mentioned.  Some people like analytics and taking deep dives, but sometimes they can not align with narratives and that makes some people hate them (not singling you out as I've been guilty of this too).  To each their own.  Regardless it's pretty widely accepted throughout the league and fans.  

I like pff, i appreciate their work, although is there a link where they explain these rankings because I am not seeing it on their page so I am assuming its premium content

3 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

I've never said he was a top 5 lol.  Stats are stats unless it "garbage time" stats right?  I remember you crying about those plenty of times.  Stats without context don't tell the story.  I just find it funny that he shared an article that literally said the box score didn't look great but let's take a deeper look and your response was basically bro look at the box score....

Without context these "stats" are absolutely meaningless.  Are these throws completions?  How is the passing grade calculated?  Offensive grade?

T-1 in BTT% • 2nd in BTT’s • T-3 in aDOT • 4th in Deep (20+) Passing grade • 5th in Overall Passing grade • 5th in Passing grade under pressure • 6th in Offensive grade • 6th in P2S%

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

"The raw stats don't always tell the story, and that's definitely true with Bryce Young. The Carolina Panthers QB's season stat line is middling at best, and even some of his strongest days as a starter this year didn't result in dominant box scores."

"Context matters, but there are also some things traditional metrics just can't capture. There's value in those, but advanced analytics seek to illustrate how good or bad a player was beyond the box score. In the case of Young, the analytics paint a beautiful picture."

-That's the first two paragraphs from the article he posted.  PFF isn't going to always agree with a simple box score.  Box Score's don't always tell the story and PFF has a lot of gray areas.  At the end of the day we have eyes and have to simply watch the games to see the improvements or not.  

that reads like a funny way to try and pump him up.  At the end of the day Bryce averaged 208 yards per game with a 61% completion since week 9.  If you guys want to argue he was a top 5 qb during that time, sure man go for but the stats are the stats.

44 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

Yeah PFF has him ranked the fifth best qb since week 9 which has been posted already.

https://www.si.com/nfl/panthers/news/advanced-analytics-bryce-young-superstar

 

We find what we are looking for. Took me a minute or less to find it. I bet you want to argue with this too. Found 2 more articles ranking him 11th and 14th but didn't include them since you wanted top 10.

from week 9 on

Bryce averaged 208 yards per game with a 61% completion

41 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

Notice it is the same few people basically trying to find flaws to justify their dislike of Young. You are doing a good job but it won't matter what you say. They won't change their mind unless there is a tsunami of evidence that is irrefutable. The annoying thing is that when they are wrong you might get a 1 post acknowledgment months from now but have to suffer the constant negativity for months and hundred of posts in the interim.

Pretty sure the adverse applies here as well.  Cherry picking some random made up stat to prop Young up is not a good look either

33 minutes ago, AceBoogie said:

Why are you so miserable 

poo man you tell and thanks for your concern

5-12

2-15

7-10

5-12

5-11

5-11

4 minutes ago, Icege said:

If you're trying to have a good faith convo, please clarify. I can't tell if you're being a dismissive douche or really want to discuss Panthers football.

Please clarify what?   I asked you 3 questions and you cannot answer one

3 hours ago, Icege said:

Are you trying to have a good faith conversation or are you just being dismissive?

More than willing to explore further if the former, but from your quip at the end there it seems like the latter.

I don't think that you'd just dismiss something because it doesn't support your argument, but just in case lmk pls kthx

and yet you didnt answer one of those questions

The "big time throw" stat just seems like something made up from PFF

1 hour ago, Icege said:

Wasn't specified by the OP. Got the original tweet screen capped in the link above for what they had posted.

 

I thought that the one other time I posted it explained it clearly and that the labels would help fill in any blanks (outside of exacts regarding the scope of the sample, of course). What part is giving you trouble?

Is this the entire season?

Is this completions?

What defines big time throws?

I mean it's a pretty arbitrary and meaningless "stat" in the grand scheme of things 

12 minutes ago, Icege said:

a little context would help if you are going to keep posting that

5 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

Actually,  what lines up with your ideas he is too short or small to be successful.? His passing completions or total yards?

Bryce is going into his 13th game with a legitimate offense and good offensive coach. And during that time he went from the worst qb in the league to top 10 by the end of the year based on game production against a number of playoff teams. .

Bryce averaged 208 yards per game with a 61% completion since coming back.  How is that top 10?