LinvilleGorge

Sharing some more stuff from my expert friend... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1 We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk. Below is why we're seeing a trend of doctors reevaluating the use of ventilators with this disease and holding off longer than they normally would before moving to the vent. If you're over 65 and go on a ventilator your chances of survival are very, very slim. If you're under 65, they're still pretty bad. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184?guestAccessKey=28639c30-edee-405e-9618-1be71e09426b&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social_jama&utm_term=3293878934&utm_campaign=article_alert&linkId=87122161 Mortality for those who received mechanical ventilation was 88.1% (n = 282). Mortality rates for those who received mechanical ventilation in the 18-to-65 and older-than-65 age groups were 76.4% and 97.2%, respectively.

Of course it's not across the board. Nothing is when making general statements. But my dumbass family is pretty representative of the overall rural southern population and let me tell ya, it ain't promising.

Nah, I think lack of education is a huge part of it. You can go out and enjoy those freedoms while still responsibly socially distancing, etc. It's not a black and white either/or issue, but to some people (stupid people) it is.

The south is gonna be a problem. At least out here we have a high education rate, etc. I think the majority of people will listen. The south... oh wee mayne.

It definitely is. All the antibody testing done so far suggests that the real number of cases outpaces confirmed cases by several magnitudes, which makes sense given the overall lack of testing and the fact that most cases are either asymptomatic or relatively mild. Most of those people didn't qualify for a test anyway.

The antibody testing here in CO is SUPER limited. Hopefully it'll be able to give us a little better vague idea as to the total number of cases truly out there though.

I'm honestly glad I'm not in governors' shoes right now to make these calls, but I understand why there's such a push to reopen economies right now. You're damned if you do, damned if you don't right now. Reopen too soon and you'll create a second wave. Don't reopen soon enough and you've recreated the Great Depression. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-recession-turning-into-the-great-depression-ii-amid-job-losses-141615099.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bad-might-think-great-depression-110009141.html What we really need is a widespread testing program with contact tracing and for people to actually adhere to social distancing guidelines, wear masks, and wash their damn hands. But vaguely understanding the stupidity of the average person, good luck with that.

I just know how it worked in the defense industry. Those contracts were agreed upon before the legislation was ever signed. One of the companies I repped for was under the L3 Technologies umbrella. That outfit was shady as FUG. They've since merged with Harris Corporation which if anything is even shadier, but they use that shadiness to rake in billions in government contracts.

Let's be honest, the only way a big infrastructure bill gets passed is if some large construction companies use some lobbyists to line some pockets to get a sweetheart deal passed where they already have the contracts landed behind closed doors. That's the way big government spending works.

Retail is gonna get crushed. They were already badly struggling to compete against ecommerce and this will likely be the death blow for many of them. Unfortunately, retail jobs make up about 12% our total jobs.

Nah man, if you're still breathing you ain't out of moves yet. Just think, Marty Hurney is still cashing paychecks as an NFL GM. There's hope for us all.

They're already skyrocketing. This will just keep the trend going. Sorry you're in this spot. I'm already there. What's really frustrating for me is that I had a startup business going and had agreements from five more distributors to bring me on this summer. That would've given me a total of 22 states. None have completely backed out on me as of yet, but timing went from "this summer" to "???". So, in the meantime I've launched another line that has been picked up by the two biggest online retailers in the game. Initial orders should be within the next 3-4 weeks.

Scheduled for an antibody test next Thursday!

The ski and snowboard industry is going to get HAMMERED by this. For the resorts, this hit right before spring break which is one of their windows of opportunity. It also shortened the season here in CO by about two months. For the equipment manufacturers and retailers, there is going to be a TON of this year's inventory people are still sitting on. That stuff would usually be getting blown out at discounted prices right now. No one is buying gear now. No retailers are going to want to bring in next year's catalog while they're still sitting on a ton of this year's inventory. The real gut punch is if there is a second wave next fall. A lot of resorts are already making contingency plans for if there is a delayed opening next year. Some industry people are whispering behind closed doors that it's possible there won't be a season next year. If that happens, the corporatization of the ski and snowboarding industry will be complete. The big outfits like Vail Resorts and Intrawest will get bailed out, all the independents will go belly up and Vail Resorts and Intrawest will use their bailout money to buy them up.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1271028/Angela-Merkel-Germany-China-coronavirus-blame-Wuhan-Xi-Jinping-Trump-latest?fbclid=IwAR2b8A_IBhZ0FoSyW2rg8aFYZvSru4j1UPkLGFC-SOyb7gR6t-E4Dnko8Ik

I think there's gonna have to be some serious wrist slapping for that message to resonate. My wife's office is literally going back to business as usual on Monday. Her boss was sending out texts of jubilation during the presser while my wife and all of her coworkers were texting each other "WTF?! Is she actually listening to the words coming out of this man's mouth???"

Yeah, we're making our call based on some really good data and modeling, but the governor is up there pleading with people to let employees work from home whenever possible and to still try to stay at home as much as possible. The presser is still going on and my wife just got a text for a celebratory conference call starting in two minutes since "we'll be back to business as usual on Monday!" Sigh... Even though this decision is based on good data and modeling, it still relies on people not being idiots and in my experience that's always setting yourself up for disappointment.

Colorado is in the south now? We're about as blue as it gets.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-colorado-latest-covid-19-updates-from-april-20-2020 Latest updates: Monday, April 20 4:15 p.m. | Stay-at-home will end Sunday, as scheduled

Don't kid yourself. They'll peacock around claiming their protest was the reason this happened.

Shall we try this again? I promise you that the third time will not be the charm. If it gets locked again it'll be for good and all this conversation will transfer to the TB. In other news, I just found out from someone very much in the know that Colorado's stay at home mandate will be lifted on April 27th and Governor Polis is set to announce that today at 3:30.

Well, that small case study failed miserably. Hopefully it goes better when the stay at home mandates get lifted and people are asked to maintain social distancing guidelines, but honestly I doubt it.

Yeah, there should've been some type of annual revenue piece built into that program. Under 500 employees does not necessarily automatically equate to "small business". Appaloosa Management, Tepper's hedge fund, has about 15 employees. They manage $13B in assets. I don't think anyone in their right mind would consider that a "small business" despite having a small number of employees.

I really want to get one of the antibody tests. I've submitted to be part of a clinical trial for it. I posted awhile back that I think there's a really good chance we've already had this thing and that was before we had preliminary data suggesting that the actual rate of infection very well may be 50x higher than the number of confirmed cases. I traveled a TON in early Q1 and shortly after coming back from a trip to the greater Seattle area in mid-January, I developed a helluva chest cold. Zero head/sinus symptoms. Basically just a drag ass feeling with a low grade fever and a hellish dry cough that lasted forever, like 10 or so weeks forever. The weird thing about it was that it would come in waves. Just as soon as you thought you were getting over it, another wave would hit and you'd be right back to where you started. My wife had the same thing. Our four year old daughter wasn't impacted in the least.