32 replies to this topic

[Urrymonster]

Draft classes are commonly associated with being 'judged' after three years of NFL calibre football under their belts. Considering all the hoopla about our most recent draft I thought I would look at where our draft picks in 2008 started from and where they are now. Some might find this interesting, some not, but part of me wanted people to slow down in their assumptions with regards to some of our newly blooded rookies, especially considering the awful state of our team.

So without further adieu:

Note: This is pre-Browns game

Summary
Jon Stewart - Great pick - Elite running back, only concerns are minor lingering injury problems, top 10 when firing
Jeff Otah - Decent pick - Decent starting calibre RT, has regressed from rookie year, road grader who CAN pass protect
Charles Godfrey - Poor pick - A bust in all but appearances. Does not create enough turnovers to justify his mental lapses.
Dan Connor - Best pick - Elite MLB, poor coverage skills but best linebacker against the run and blitzing. Injury concerns, where does he fit next season?
Gary Barnidge - Average pick - Physical specimen who simply can't make an impact in the passing game, why? HAS had chances, so should be considered a bust.
Nick Hayden - Poor pick - Never was going to be anything other than a backup. Consistently struggles in every area.
Hilee Taylor - Poor pick - Never fitted our scheme and given next to no opportunities. Unsure why he is still on the roster
Geoff Schwartz - Great pick - Decent starting calibre OT/OG, made steady improvement. Amazing back up if OLine is set.
Mackenzy Bernadeau - Great pick - Average starting calibre OG, made improvements. Good back up if OLine is set.

Analysis
So we picked up two elite level players (Stewart, Connor), two quality starting calibre players (Otah, Schwartz), one average starter (Bernadeau), one BUST starter (Godfrey), 2 poor back ups (Hayden & Taylor) and one enigma (Barnidge)

Connor, Schwartz & Bernadeau have all slowly improved and become at least NFL starting calibre players, Godfrey has also improved but is still a poor standard for a starting safety, as has Hayden at DT. Otah has shown signs of regressing. Moral of the story? Rookies improve. Do not judge our recent draft class too early. Another point? Connor, Mack, Schwartz, Barnidge barely played their rookie season and have all contributed - Do not write off a certain WR off yet because he has barely played...

Player breakdowns

Jonathon Stewart
His talent has never been in doubt, but his durability always a concern. Not because he misses a ton of games, but because he rarely is healthy enough to practice. Until he is able to practice, there will always be the concern that his body is bordering breaking down at an earlier age than usual. Honestly anything I write here should be common knowledge by now, but there are some stats that might impress. Amazingly this did nothing to prevent him from having an impact for us.

2008
Stew averaged 4.1 (LG) & 5.7 (RG) ypc either side of centre Ryan Kalil and continued his strong inside running by racking up 4.1 (LT&LG) & 4.3 (RG&RT) when running between the tackle and guard. What most were exceptionally excited about was seeing him capable of generating yardage when running outside the OLine, with 4.4 to the left and 5.8 to the right. The only area where he seemed to struggle were the off-tackle runs to the left. He managed to generate 35 missed tackles through the season, in line for 5th in the NFL, which generated an average of 3.5 yards after first contact per carry. Couple this with 11 rushing TDs and only 2 fumbles, Stew looked like the real deal. The only area in which he struggled in was the passing game. In 121 snaps he blocked 52 times, giving up 2 pressures and 1 hit on the QB. The other 69 times he ran routes, but was only targeted 16 times, completing 11 of them. When he had the ball he did well, generating 4 missed tackles and a YAC average of 9.5, however getting open was a serious struggle for him. The incredible start he had to his career was really over-shadowed though by DeAngelo Williams & Adrian Peterson, allowing him to essentially fly under the radar somewhat.
2009
Due to an injury to DWill, Stewart stepped out his shadow somewhat in 2009 as he was given the keys to the Carolina offense. He continued his exceptional inside running going as he achieved 5 & 4.1 ypc to the left and right of Ryan Kalil. However his outside running is what gave him the most joy with 6.6 & 6.1 ypc to the left of Gross and right of Otah. On 222 rushes, he amassed 44 missed tackles and an average of 3.3 yards after first contact. Amazing considering he shard half the season with DWill and he was in line with the guys who had played significantly more. 10 TDs and only 3 fumbles played key to our late season revival under Matt Moore. Due to the injury he was given an ever so slightly increased role in the passing game where he took part in 138 passing plays, where he ran a route in 87 of the plays. He was targeted a better 25 times and completed 18 of them, generated 5 missed tackles and scored his first receiving touchdown. His blocking was still an area for concern as he gave up 2 sacks, 3 hits and 2 pressures in 51 snaps when blocking.
2010
So in 2010 once again Stew & DWill were expected to not miss a beat and carry the offense with Matt Moore under centre full time. Unfortunately that has not panned out at all. Stewart has seriously struggled in the power running game, generating his only averages above 4 ypc between the tackles and guards with 4.3 to the left and 5.2 to the right. His outside running has been his worst in his career. More surprising his 69 attempts have produced only 11 missed tackles and his yards after first contact have dropped right down to 1.1. In the passing game he has had 32 opportunities and been targeted 8 times with just 5 catches. He has produced a touchdown and 2 missed tackles, however with the improvement shown from 2008-09, this is a disappointment. He has however shown improvement in his blocking as currently he has only given up 1 hit and 2 pressures in 25 snaps.

Analysis
Before the start of this season he was penned to have terrific season, but there is more wrong with him than just an offensive line in flux. He is struggling outside the tackles and is making significantly less people miss their tackle. His yards after contact is really surprising as that is the staple of his game and as much as people WANT to pin this on the OLine, it really is a combination of the two.
Draft Pick Analysis
A resounding success in my eyes. Two fantastic years more than make up for the blip this year, especially considering how difficult we are finding it at the moment. Considering this, I honestly would be exceptionally careful about his health. He doesn't miss games, but he misses practices which suggests there is underlying problems and at running back, they will be exposed time and again.

Jeff Otah
Otah will always be judged by what we gave up to get him, a future first, a second and a 4th gave us the Eagles 19th overall pick. To make it easier for people to understand we gave them the 28th pick, so essentially we traded our 2nd and 4th to move up 9 spots in the first round. What that means is we lost out approximately 331 points of value, equal to a late 2nd round pick. However a future 1st is always viewed as 'cheaper' than a current pick, so that trade difference is actually a lot closer than you would think. This pick, combined with the Stewart pick seemed like a match made in heaven.

2008
Otah started off slow for us and missed 4 games in his first year. However by the end of the season this guy was really finding his feet. His RT spot produced 4.1 & 4.9 yards per carry to the inside and outside of him. Couple that with giving up just 5 sacks, 1 hit and 12 pressures, his struggles in the passing game were somewhat blown out of proportion. His suggested struggles with discipline were also over blown as he gave up just 5 penalties for the season.
2009
We saw Jeff be somewhat exposed in his 2nd year with the Panthers. Again missing 2 games his RT position produced the lowest rushing averages either side of him with 4.4 & 4.1 to the left and right of him. His pas protection was also down from 2008 as he gave up 5 sacks, 4 hits and 18 pressures. He also produced an increased 6 penalties to couple with his lower level of play in 2009.
2010
Possibly the biggest disappointment of this season was not having our road grader to help us lean on our running game even more. Unclear if this is something he could have done about as the timing of his operation was questionable at best.

Analysis
It can be said that Otah ha slowly regressed since his rookie campaign, however Otah goes through a lot of criticism for areas that probably aren't warranted. Is he the best pass blocker? No, but he is certainly above average to decent. He is a very good run blocker though and coupled with his above average pass protection, he is certainly one of the better RT's int he NFL at the moment. His problem? Injuries.
Draft Pick Analysis
For two years Otah and Stew were seen as a married draft pick, although after looking closer it shows that Stew wasn't as reliant on him as people thought. People judge him on the trade which is unfair, he really was a first round talent and has played like it. Until he plays a full season though, I would not extend him to the value that his play probably merits. Great to have for his rookie deal, but beyond that? A great pickup at the time, although two injury issues in our two first round picks...

Edited by Urrymonster, 01 December 2010 - 05:52 PM.

[Urrymonster]

Charles Godfrey
Possibly the most criticised played on the Huddle board?

Godfrey was drafted after playing CB most of his college life, yet then moved to FS in his rookie season. A rare rookie started for John Fox, he was exposed to being picked apart from the beginning of his NFL career.
2008
As a FS, coverage is pretty damn important. In 618 snaps in coverage he was thrown at 43 times (7%), where 28 were completed, the receivers generated 113 yards after that completion which resulted in 2 TDs being his primary responsibility. In contrast he managed just 3 pass breakups and one interception. As a blitzer he faired much better generating 1 sack, 2 hits and 4 pressures in 36 attempts, not outstanding, but not bad either. Tackling & supporting the run faired only a little better than his pass coverage. 57 solo tackles with 10 missed and 15 defensive stops left him pretty much rank average, possibly a bit below.
2009
For Godfrey, 2009 was the tale of two halves. Before missing 4 games in the middle of the season, he was in danger of losing his job regardless. Seeing Sherrod Martin step in and create a spark must have re-focused Godfrey as after then he put together the best spell in his pro career. In 396 plays he was picked on 18 times (4.5%), where the receiver completed 10 times, racked up 34 YAC but no TDs. In contrast Godfrey picked up his first career interception and broke up a further 3 passes. Something to note. Before his injury QB's who threw at him had a 93.36 QB rating, after the injury they had a QB rating of 35.44. If it were not for his late season revival, he might not be starting now. His tackling was similar to before, with 37 solo tackles and 7 missed, however his 9 defensive stops were at a better ratio. Amazingly the best part of his rookie campaign, his blitzing, was all but ignored as he was sent on just 3 blitzes. With his improvement in coverage late on, he actually looked like he was turning the corner.
2010
Could he build on his late season revival in 2009? Essentially, yes and no. In 351 plays in coverage he has been targeted 33 times, giving up 23 receptions, 146 YAC, 3 TDs and a QB rating of 102.5. To combat this he has recorded 3 interceptions but NO pass breakups. He has however been a more disruptive force in the running game as he has racked up 49 tackles already, with 16 defensive stops (both top 20 in Safeties), although has 8 missed tackles (top 10 in NFL for safeties). Essentially he appears to have taken the high risk, high reward mentality this year, as if he is trying to make big plays. However this has left him exposed time and again in both facets for giving up big plays. He continues to be a good blitzer as he has 4 hits and 1 pressure in just 15 attempts.

Analysis
Is yet to really contribute an above average season and his Sunday best has been pretty much rank average. He is neither a big player maker, nor a solid consistent player, which is only being highlighted by the decent play of Sherrod Martin. He has had some very good games at times, so the potential is still there, however at one of the most important positions in the defensive backfield, we really need a more reliable player. Just to note though, he has been below average and on occasion poor, however he isn't the worst out there.
Draft Analysis
At the time he would of been just as useful at cornerback and it would of been fascinating to see if he had never been switched. As it is he is quickly developing into a back up player and will be surprised if he retains his starting position next season. He will not be retained after his rookie contract runs out unless he has a monster 4th year. Currently a wasted draft pick.

Dan Connor
The epitome of not judging a draft pick until their third year. An expected 1st-2nd round pick who slid into the 3rd round was too much value to pass up. Thought of as a true MLB, it was difficult to see where he fit in alongside Jon Beason, so at the time, it appeared like a wasted pick from the beginning.

2008
An early injury in TC ended his season before it began
2009
Connor featured in just 78 plays, 54 against the run, 2 blitzing and 22 in coverage. He managed only 8 tackles, however an incredible 5 were defensive stops and 1 QB pressure. His coverage ability was exposed though as he was targeted twice, giving up both for 25 yards.
2010
The emergence of Dan Connor. Moved to MLB as Beason moved into TD's position saw Connor finally playing some significant football. He managed 261 snaps before his injury ended his season with 159 against the run, 24 blitzing and 78 in coverage. As a blitzer he was one of our best, getting 1 sack, 3 hits and 5 pressures (37.5% of his pass rushes resulted in pressure). As a force against the run he was even better. Connor had 31 solo tackles, with just 2 missed, however of all his tackles an incredible 20 of them were defensive stops. Only a handful of linebackers come close to that ratio, so he really was having an incredible season. As expected his coverage has struggled, with 9 targets, 8 completions for 80 yards, although he did managed one pass breakup.

Analysis
I thought that the combination of Beason, Connor, Anderson was the most balanced LB set we have had in a long time. Personally I prefer Connor in the middle, as he is just that little bit more disruptive in the run game than Beason is, sub him out in passing situations and you have a very balanced LB group. Sadly he might be one of those players that is always contesting with injuries and that appears to be the only thing holding him back.
Draft Pick Analysis
It was a complete waste at the time, however the NFL again shows that you should always judge someone after their 3 years in the league. Connor is an elite MLB who only lacks coverage skills, is our best blitzer and our best run defender. The draft pick was a fantastic one now.

Gary Barnidge

2008
Just 27 snaps, with only 7 where he was running routes, resulting in only 1 target. The rest he was used in run blocking, which he was neither good or bad at.
2009
Gary finally saw some time with 265 plays (88 pass plays, 171 run blocking, 6 pass blocking). He was target 20 times, completing 12 of them for 242 yards, 105 of which were generated after the catch where he made two defenders miss their tackles. Difficult to analyse his run blocking due tot he mount of changes at TE, however he again appeared to neither excel nor let the team down in this area.
2010
I, along with many other huddlers expected Barnidge to move up the depth chart this season, as it is, he is experiencing slightly less. On 138 snaps he has been used as a receiver 56 times where he has only been thrown at 5 times, dropping one, completing none and with 3 interceptions coming from balls thrown at him. To say he has been a non entity in the passing game is putting it lightly.

Analysis
Barnidge is a matchup nightmare and it's genuinely amazing that he has had no impact for this team at all, especially considering Jeff King is atop the depth chart. I have never seen us try and use him as a big target, which seems odd considering his size and speed. Possibly hurt by the QB situation this year (although Rosario has coped fine), he is looking like another physical specimen who simply can't translate tot he NFL.
Draft Pick Analysis
At the time there was serious excitement about this guy. Now it's resigned disbelief. He was to be our Shockey, but either by scheme, ability or lack of opportunity he has quickly faded into a bit part player, used more for his blocking than anything else, which he unfortunately does not excel at. At the time we were not desperate for a TE, although now it appears we are in desperate need for a difference maker. Currently this is a failed draft pick, it will be interesting if he sticks around with the new HC.

Edited by Urrymonster, 01 December 2010 - 01:15 PM.

[Urrymonster]

Nick Hayden
2008
I mentioned how Godfrey was the most criticised, forget that, Nick Hayden is. 44 snaps, 19 against he run, 24 against the pass. A modest 2 hits with 1 pressure, 2 tackles and one defensive stop. What most remember on his rookie season was how easily he was blown off the line, no one expected him to STILL be on the roster.
2009
272 snaps played, 146 against he run with 126 against he pass. Nick was given more responsibility with Kemo going down in TC, however he could barely do anything. 1 sack, 3 pressures, 13 tackles with only 6 being stops. Again he was our worst defensive lineman on the roster and all were expecting him to be cut.
2010
Amazing he is still with us and now he is given an even bigger role. So far he has 257 snaps, 137 run, 119 pass and 1 in coverage. Admittedly he has improved and he is no longer our worst performing Dline player, just our worst DT... 1 sack, 1 hit, 2 pressures, 1 batted pass, 15 tackles of which 11 were defensive stops. He has definitely shown improvement and had a fantastic game against Chicago, generating 5 stops. However he has surrounded that with consistently below average and poor performances.

Analysis
Sadly, because I like him and think he tries damn hard, he simply is not an NFL calibre DT. He has shown small improvements each season, but by his third season he has one good game to his resume.
Draft Pick
We needed a DT when we drafted Nick, but we needed a difference maker at the position. Unfortunately Hayden is the 4th Dt you want, or the practice squad guy. As he had no true physical ability he really was a pick for depth when we drafted him. We knew then he was never going to be a starter, more we hoped he might be decent depth. Whilst you can't have a bust at this point in the draft, Hayden is sadly a fairly wasted roster spot and it probably would have been worth taking a flier on someone with raw physical ability instead.

Hilee Taylor
2008
Hilee had a promising rookie campaign with 74 snaps (55 pass rushing, 14 run, 5 coverage) where he managed 1 sack, 4 hits and 2 pressures. He also had 3 tackles and 2 defensive stops.
2009
After a promising rookie campaign it was surprising to see Hillee just get 15 snaps where he achieved absolutely nothing.
2010
IR ended his season, although he may have been cut anyway.

Analysis
A good example of how a small sample of success can lead to increased fan expectation. It also shows how many young players can have flashes, but not be NFL quality at the end of the day.
Draft Pick Analysis
Hilee was always going to be a one dimensional player where he could only contribute as a pass rusher. Unfortunately the opportunities for him appear to have gone and even with Meeks at DC his chances at rushing the passer have been non-existent. Due to us simply not playing him, it has to be a failed draft pick, however a 6th round pick is rarely completely wasted. At least he contributed in his rookie season.

Geoff Schwartz
2008
Practice Squad. Looked like he was struggling to pick up the pro game.
2009
I thought he was on the bubble to being cut pre-season, but with reduced depth along the OLine he ended up playing a big part. 214 snaps at primarily the RT spot he combined with Otah to produce 4.4 & 4.1 ypc rushing to the left and right of him. He was always thought of to have less than nimble footbwork and thus he was not exposed too much, playing in just 90 dropbacks. He gave up 1 sack and 3 pressures in that time (4.4%). After this we thought he would be a solid back up.
2010
The mismanagement of Otah's operation in pre-season caused an opening at the RT spot, then with Bernadeau 'struggling' at RG he slid in there. Let's get one thing set straight, he is better at RT than RG, however he has been good at both. At RT he averaged 4.3 ypc rushing either side of him, at RG he has averaged 5.5 ypc either side of him (although much better between guard and tackle). At tackle he gave up 3 sacks, 1 hit and 5 pressures in 183 drop backs. At guard he has given up 2 hits and 3 pressures in 200 drop backs.

Analysis
Formerly known as The Dude, Geoff has been a pleasant surprise this season and is sentiment to giving a player time to adjust. He was a colleague of Stewart's at Oregon and some might have been excused if they thought he was there simply to keep Jon company. However he has shown significant improvement each and every year and so far has shown no signs of his back problems he had in college.
Draft Pick Analysis
You simply can't fault this pick. He had great potential, some injury concerns, but needed some proper NFL coaching. The result is what looks like a 16 game starter this season and will likely be penciled in at guard for next season as well, at least until any FA's are brought in. Want some comparison? He is performing a bit like Otah did in his rookie campaign, which coincidently was his best season. If I HAD to choose between Geoff and Jeff, I would struggle to make a definite call at the moment. Great draft pick.

Mackenzy Bernadeau
2008
Our final pick played no part in 2008 much like Schwartz, but a lot of noise was made as we didn't want to put him on the practice squad.
2009
With injuries to Otah and Gross Mack got significant playing time at LG as Wharton slid over into LT. He played in 515 snaps, 270 in the run game and 245 in the passing game. Now without looking at the facts I always assume he was hyped up simply because our running game started clicking with him in, however he was generating 4.07 between him and Wharton with 6.26 ypc with Kalil. Not too shabby, but important to remember Kalil had a monster season in 2009. In pass protection he gave up 1 sack and 10 pressures, which was about rank average, possibly a shade below.
2010
With starting experience and a hole at RG it was obvious he was going to get a fair crack at the starting gig, despite the drafting of Duke Robinson. So far in 2010 Mack played in 399 plays, 165 run plays and 234 pass plays. Starting at RG he struggled with just 1.83 ypc to his left and 4.35 ypc to his right, also struggling in the passing game by giving up 3 sacks, 3 hits and 2 pressures in just total plays. At LG he improved with 2.88 ypc to his left and 17.3 ypc to his right, also giving up just one hit.

Analysis
The optimism surrounding him was a touch built up, created by a monster season from DWill, JStew & Kalil. He had moments, but he struggled mightily at other times. He has improved this season, despite his momentary benching and switch to LG, however he genuinely performs better at LG. This season Geoff has been the better of the two and whilst Mack has struggled in areas, he is still playing at a moderate level.
Draft Pick Analysis
Another wise pick at the end of the draft. Mack was a physical specimen who played at a small school, who could only get better, provided he could adjust. Much like Schwartz. it's taken him a couple of years for it to click, but now he is settling in. I would be concerned he dos not regress after progress this year, however he is solid depth at the very least.

Edited by Urrymonster, 01 December 2010 - 05:31 PM.

[nosuchthingasapanther]

just in case no one has noticed...outside him being out with a concussion, stewart has yet to miss a practice this season.

the whole him not practicing as a concern should have died at the beginning of the season.

[Urrymonster]

just in case no one has noticed...outside him being out with a concussion, stewart has yet to miss a practice this season.

the whole him not practicing as a concern should have died at the beginning of the season.

Yet to miss a practice this season? How did training camp go down? I have no problem with recognising that he doesn't have serious problems that cause him to not play, however you can;t deny that he has numerous small underlying problems that continue to hinder him. Are they serious now? No, but they could develop into something.

[CharlotteBeer.com]

Practice? We talkin' about practice?

[AceMan]

Practice? We talkin' about practice?

[AceMan]

I definitely don't know what's up with Barnidge though...We know he has the ability! I'm hoping a new coach and offensive scheme will be able to open things up for him next year.

[SOJA]

I definitely don't know what's up with Barnidge though...We know he has the ability! I'm hoping a new coach and offensive scheme will be able to open things up for him next year.

this. the guy makes plays when he is in there. I wouldn't mind us parting ways with king and giving rosario and barnidge all the snaps

[Urrymonster]

this. the guy makes plays when he is in there. I wouldn't mind us parting ways with king and giving rosario and barnidge all the snaps

In three seasons he has been targeted just 26 times and has caught only 12 of them for 242 yards, with 5 passes being intercepted when thrown his way. He also has 1 drop and no touchdowns. 107 yards have come from 2 catches.

He 'should' be good, but sometimes things just do not translate to the NFL. Either he doesn't have the football smarts, runs poor routes or can't locate the ball. It would be different if he didn't play at all, but he does, so the Fox doesn;t like him excuse just doesn't hold.

[CRA]

Nice job. Rep coming your way.

[ElkinPanthersFan]

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[CatMan72]

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[unicar15]

If Otah could get healthy then that would be the best draft class in Panthers history IMO.

[CharlotteBeer.com]

Maybe u can have a try

That's what she said.