Cam vs Tim
Posted 15 December 2011 - 10:54 AM
Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:02 AM
Id rather watch a monkey dance with a bunch of Panthers gear on than read one of PFFLs dissertations.
so you're in favor of mare keeping his job? :confused:
Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:20 AM
To your first point, absolutely but that's why turnovers matter so much and the style of offense you run. Where a turnover takes place has a lot to say about whether they ever get to the end zone or not. New England allows more yards than us. Green Bay allows more yards than us. But they allow far less points than us. If our opponents start at the 25 yard line, we have a much better chance at stopping them from scoring than if they start at the 50. If they are running teams who run out the clock, they allow less yards per game. There are less drives per game.
The average offense only travels 40 yards and are in scoring range and you are practically guaranteed 3 points unless you're a retarded offense and your kicker's name is Mare. And we are one of those.
And to your question, that's the thing there is no easy method. Nobody does it that I know of. Easiest way would probably be yards per point allowed using only full drives, with average starting field position. But nobody keeps track of it that I know of and only about 3 web sites have access to NFL's drive stats. You gotta ask for them and you might even have to pay. It's too much work to do by yourself and I'm guessing if they started today, they couldn't related it to historic stats because I'm not sure if they kept track of some of these stats 60 years ago. Oh and you'd still have to keep track of 3 and out separate, since yards per point doesn't keep track of this so it won't reflect on defenses that get a lot of 3 and outs.
They screwed up from the start by using opponent's offensive measurements to rank defenses. Yards per play is a bit better for yards but it has nothing to do with scoring. For example, New England, GB, the Saints are at the bottom of the league in yards per play allowed but top of the league in points allowed. That's because they have efficient offenses who rarely turn over the ball in their own end-zone. So yards per point allowed would take care of this and yards per play takes care of 3 and outs.
These are all terrible stats for defenses. Maybe a combination or yards per point allowed and points per play allowed on equal drives against a common consistent elite offense. That would get you really close.
Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:28 AM
Not beginning in the 4th quarter or second half. Again you are under the assumption if you score 26 or even 30 points you should automatically win. Not at all. And that doesn't mean your defense did a bad job. Our D's closed games out when we had the lead with less than 5 minutes to play every game.
The average points a team scores depends largely on the type of offense you are and the number of drives or scoring opportunities you have per game. So in a game with 20 scoring opportunities that score should be upwards of 30, for example in a game with a lot of turnovers or between two passing teams. If those turnovers took place in bad spots, it should be even higher. In a game with 10 opportunities facing a rushing team BOTH scores should be lower. That has a lot more to do with your offense, turnovers and where they happen, than just your defense. Simply looking at the PPG average and saying we should win because we average this much offensively, is short sighted and a bad statistical analysis. And it doesn't necessarily make you a bad defense. That's what efficiency is for. It tells you what PPG or YPG doesn't.
Yeah except our defense is last in the league in defended possessions. So they have actually had less opportunities to be scored against. So that doesn't work.
You need to look at how some of those other defenses stack up against common opponents we have played. Just to give you an example:
-Houston, who is coming up, gave up 33 to New Orleans.
-Detroit Lions gave up 35 to us, and 28 to Minnesota.
-New Orleans gave up 42 to Green Bay, 33 to Houston, 27 to Carolina.
-Atlanta gave up 30 to Chicago, 28 to Seattle, 31 to Philadelphia
Does that mean Lions defense sucks? Houston's? New Orleans? Atlanta's?
If you have a bad defense you should get blown out a lot when you have a quarterback that's near the top of the league in interceptions and one of the most inefficient offenses in the league. Out of all teams the Lions put up 49 points against us, also in a game we had 4 turnovers. And the game was close to the very end. In fact we've had more close games than anyone.
The reason we aren't getting blown out is because of our offense. Not our defense.
Why can Seattle, Chicago and Philly put up 30 points on Atlanta and we only put up 17 or 23? Cause our offense is inefficient as poo. You can't beat Atlanta putting up 17 or 23 points even without turnovers. Or how about we look at how other defenses stack up against GB, arguably the best offense in the league:
Here's Green Bay's schedule
vs New Orleans 43-34
vs Carolina 30-23(4 turnovers)
vs Chicago 27-17(2 turnovers)
vs Denver 49-23
vs Atlanta 25-14(2 turnovers)
vs St Louis 24-3(1 turnover)
vs Minnesota 33-27
vs San Diego 45-38
vs Minnesota 45-7
vs Tampa Bay 35-26
vs Detroit Lions 27-15(3 turnovers)
vs NY Giants 38-35
vs Oakland 46-16
So St Louis has the best defense in the League? lol. Notice a pattern? We're actually the only defense that kept GB to 30 points with our O turning over the ball 4 times. Lions D had to deal with 3. Atlanta with 2. The Rams with only 1. Or how about we look at what happens to another good defense when you have an inefficient offense and turnover machines:
-Philadelphia's defense gave up:
35 to Atlanta
29 to the Giants
30 to Chicago
38 to New England
31 to Seattle
26 to Miami and Matt Moore!
Does Phily''s defense suck too, or is it just the fact they too have one of the most inefficient offenses in the league and Vick led the lead in picks and got benched, and Young picked right back up where he left off throwing 4 interceptions?
Philly's offense is way worse than ours in nearly every category and their defense is only average at best and yet is still only giving up 22.5 points per game .
If our offense was performing as poorly as Philly's offense this season we would be getting destroyed IMO.
Edited by teeray, 15 December 2011 - 11:35 AM.
Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:34 AM
If they are getting as bad a field position as PFFL would suggest they shouldn't be giving up @35 yards a drive.... unless our defense is even worse than I think.