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Talent, Math, and Luck


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#1 Fan01

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 10:51 AM

There has been a lot of discussion on the boards about creating a "winning" culture in Carolina. About not missing on draft choices and getting quality players. I found a very good article by Dan Le Batard of the Miami Herald and it highlights what I've thought for a long time about winning in the NLF.

You need a certain amount of pure luck and Tom Brady (or other random Superstar QB)

Here's the link to the article.

http://www.miamihera...triots-and.html

Human beings crave control and understanding, even when those things are often just soothing illusions. In sports, this leads us to assign magical powers to the leaders who happen to win, as if they have some secret the rest of us losers don’t. Oracle Bill Belichick allegedly sees things. The idea is that if Belichick and Ireland were putting the very same prospect through the very same workout, Belichick would be able to identify fortune-telling clues that would escape the attention of Ireland.
This is nonsense, of course, and we’ll look back at these mysticisms one day the way we do at Greek gods, but Belichick has something that feels like proof in his past whereas Ireland has little more than a distrust that the Dolphins have spent a decade earning. Here’s an amazing stat: The Golden Calf of Bristol has won more playoff games in the past calendar year than the Dolphins have in the past 12. In terms of fortune-telling, that has a way of making Ireland look like the guy in gypsy-wear charging five dollars for fortunes at the flea market, Belichick versus Ireland feeling like Nostradamus versus Nostradumbass.
But this probably is worth noting, too: The one time since 2004 that the Patriots didn’t make the playoffs was when quarterback Tom Brady was injured and out for the year. Not coincidentally, that is also the one time since 2004 that the Dolphins did. And by the admission of everyone in the Patriots front office, they simply got lucky on Brady. Scott Pioli, formerly Pats player personnel man, used to keep a photo on his desk to remind himself that he isn’t actually any smarter than guys such as Ireland. The photo was of offensive lineman Dave Stachelski, whom the Patriots selected a round before Brady in that draft. He never played a down in the NFL.


Read more here: http://www.miamihera...l#storylink=cpy



The Panthers will get this winning culture but it will come from winning, not the other way around. And we'll start winning because we have the real secret sauce to winning and that's Cammy Cam Juice.

#2 fieryprophet

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 11:00 AM

Thank you. I'm sick and tired of everyone around here with their ignorant rants and ravings about this team when they have no goddamn clue what goes into anything regarding football. Just chill out and see what happens, people.

#3 Fan01

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 12:24 PM

Thank you. I'm sick and tired of everyone around here with their ignorant rants and ravings about this team when they have no goddamn clue what goes into anything regarding football. Just chill out and see what happens, people.



If it wasn't for you, Mr. Scot, and a few others I don't even think I'd bother posting here sometimes. I love football and talking shop about it but can't stand inconsistant and downright ignorant arguments that ignore facts, context, circumstances, etc. You know, the things that support your argument.

#4 Pejorative Miscreant

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 12:36 PM

If it wasn't for you, Mr. Scot, and a few others I don't even think I'd bother posting here sometimes. I love football and talking shop about it but can't stand inconsistant and downright ignorant arguments that ignore facts, context, circumstances, etc. You know, the things that support your argument.


I agree with you here although at times I find this entertaining the way people hijack threads and derail them just for kicks. The grammar police are also in full force here when there is no alternative argument.

BTW, you spelled inconsistent wrong...

#5 Fan01

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:01 PM

BTW, you spelled inconsistent wrong...


I was testing you. Great job, you passed. :)

#6 Panthro

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:07 PM

Preseason - Hey I really feel we are on the cusp of something special this year

7-9

Post season - Hey I really feel we are on the cusp of something special next year

rinse repeat.

I've been a fan since 1995 and have done this way too often. Sorry if I don't "buy" into the same thing I always have as easily anymore.

#7 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:10 PM

Preseason - Hey I really feel we are on the cusp of something special this year

7-9

Post season - Hey I really feel we are on the cusp of something special next year

rinse repeat.

I've been a fan since 1995 and have done this way too often. Sorry if I don't "buy" into the same thing I always have as easily anymore.

you're being a bad/unrealistic fan.

drink the kool aid and start finding articles and metrics that say that everything is fine here.

#8 chknwing

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:11 PM

when u see the same teams reach the playoffs year after year, exactly how much luck is playing a factor in that?

#9 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:12 PM

when u see the same teams reach the playoffs year after year, exactly how much luck is playing a factor in that?

apparently the HC has very little to do with it.

#10 fieryprophet

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:19 PM

you're being a bad/unrealistic fan.

drink the kool aid and start finding articles and metrics that say that everything is fine here.


Rayzor, there's a distinct difference between "everything is fine" and "FIRE EVERYONE!! RIVERA SUX! JR SHOULD DIE ALREADY!!!"

They're both unrealistic and separate from reality, but the latter is a hell of a lot more prominent of late and more annoying. Perhaps if people made statements like "Rivera struggled a lot this year, and he needs to show real improvement to merit his return" rather than "we're doomed to mediocrity because that asshat got another shot because JR is a cheap bastard" I wouldn't be blasting away at this bullshit.

I know you wanted a new head coach, but for God's sake, the man showed some growth this year, so give him a chance and stop being so downright negative.


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