Brought up that CJ is sort of in a contract year. They either extend or part ways with him after this year since cutting him saves $11.4M (only 6 dead). Not sure we can afford both he and Greg at 12+/- a year.
I would trust his estimates based on that alone. Here's the contract breakdown for every pick this year.
Like everyone's said in this new CBA, rookie contracts really aren't negotiated anymore, they are pretty much set in stone. That's why his numbers seem to be so accurate to last year. He does a good job over there, same with spotrac.com -- but OTC has been much more involved this year vs spotrac
that may be enough to sign our 1st rounder plus some change.
at some point you people are going to have to come to the realization that the cap doesnt work the way you think it does.
the Panthers will shift and move money around without the slightest bit of difficulty as any team does. they are capable of signing anyone they want because of this.
According to overthecap.com (article here) we only need $1,669,283 in new cap space for the draft. The 7 contracts will cost about 4.6M but we'll gain back the bottom 7 contracts in the top-51 equation; thus only costing 1.6M in new money. 3.98M is plenty.
Also, if we sign FA's, we'll gain $ that leaves the top-51 contract equation. Bottom 51st right now is a 495k contract. If you sign an FA for 1M, you gain 495k -- meaning the new player only costs 505k in new cap space.
Gettlemen is a slow player. That is how he gets the best price. He did it with Munnerlyn last year, Edwards, Mikel, etc While I am sure Cam is on board with it and understands his position, he is doing it with Cam.
Right now, Hardy's stock has never been higher. Gettlemen knows that if Hardy has a 16-sack, 78 tackle season in 2014, his price is not going much higher. However, if his numbers drop, he could get him for much less.
Now include Cam's contract and CJ's contract status. If Hardy gets 10 sacks and 46 tackles, he cannot ask for elite money. Hardy's price drops to that of players in that range, which is about $8-10 million. CJ has less guaranteed money and could be cut, but he could take a cut or restructure, allowing us to keep both. If we pay Hardy top dollar now and he bombs in 2013 with 7 sacks, for example, we are locked into possibly having to cut our best DE (CJ) to make the room we need to sign Cam. On the other hand, if Hardy has 17 sacks, we could re-sign him because he is a proven blind-side rusher, cut or trade CJ, and draft a stud LDE. Signing Hardy long-term right now gives us security that he will be a Panther long term, but eliminates options.
I understand that $13 million is a lot, but hardy is asking for money in that range anyway. 16 more games will give us a better indication of what we have-if the 15-sack season was a fluke or not.
Some here will get upset over this opinion, but if you were the GM, you would make the safe plays and I do not see giving him a top-dollar, long-term contract after 1 elite season as the safe play.
I agree that to get Hardy at the value price we would need to let him play through this season; but I think it does create some hurdles.
He'll be a FA again and will be able to field offers from every team and get the best $ deal possible. He gains leverage because the Panthers don't have exclusive bargaining rights once the 2015 league year starts (though there is a cushion from the end of week 17 to that point of exclusivity, but Hardy can still hold out to field offers). This could lead to another tagging which, if deserving, wouldn't be a bad move (back to the situation we're in now, but he could demand even more with cap increasing).
Here's what might throw us off getting him at 8-10 (w/o 2nd tag); other teams (in our division in particular) could offer him 12-13 to get him. Even if he had just 10 sacks, I can see any team who needs a pass rusher bidding 2-3M/yr over true value just to get his services.
I'm just stating the other side of things even though I agree with what you've said (there's a lot of what if's on both sides).
I do see that if CJ doesn't get restructured this year (point being he doesn't increase his 15' dead $ by ~5M) in 15' he'll have 17.4M hit vs 6M dead money (11.4 savings). To me, those numbers point to extending or moving on from a player. If this is true, both of your DE's are essentially in a contract year in 2015. You could lose none, one, or worse case both.