kungfoodude

Our roster mismanagement has been far worse than NE. That's a bold statement considering but it is true. #Teppermagic

This rag tag group of bums would probably put up at least 50 before halftime on UGA. There is no comparison between CFB and the NFL. That's checkers to chess.

We are solidly bottom five and squarely the worst roster but I don't think we end up the worst team.

The only chance he gets benched for Dalton in Game 1 would be injury related.

Week 1: We lose a relatively close game. Season: 4-13 Offense will improve slightly with Bryce playing better but not enough to convince fans and pundits that he is "The Guy." OL proves disappointing as injuries eventually become a factor. Defense takes a step back, as the lack of depth and talent stand out. Not a precipitous drop off but noticeable as the season progresses. Canales gives us a glimmer of hope but the offseason/draft moves temper that by proving to be a very mixed bag that sows doubt about Morgan's ability to improve enough upon the mess Fitterer left. That's my overall season prediction.

Well, he doesn't have a ton more time to prove he can, sadly.

This is not a thread to support the theory that Hurney was a good GM. He proved twice that he was not. I feel similarly about his ability to draft. But what did happen is that our ability to even evaluate first round talent appears to have faltered in the Tepper era. I would be willing to bet that our overall drafts fare even worse in a comparison like this.

Oh Fitterer put the Hurney vs. Gettleman arguments to bed forever. Fitterer is (hopefully) the GOAT in terms of pure incompetence in our FO franchise history. If we somehow manage to eclipse this reign, we are fuged.

Hurney's averages in those late rounds was bad. Fitterer is a bad comparison. He sucked at the 1st through 7th rounds.

Hurney was mainly a 1st round specialist. His 2nd through 7th was pretty rough historically.

I do feel like there is some positional bias to this scoring. I don't think it is as effective at gauging IDL/OL players versus QB's, WR's, etc. I like the PFR AV overall, though. They did retire the old CarAV and replace it with wAV.

Honestly, of his era, there haven't been many good players we have kept around. We are probably a couple of players away from him being the best player we have drafted and retained from 2015 and onward.

For this time period yes. The difference in the Tepper and non-Tepper eras of this sample seem very stark, IMO. I will add the caveat that the more recent picks are subject to very wide ranges of outcomes based on length and success of careers.

It would be basically impossible to do the other way around because wAV adds up over time. You essentially would be tilting the entire scale to longevity(which is somewhat true anyway). But, it is supposed to be a measure of career rating so that is appropriate.

Yeah you are definitely not understanding. These are ranked by individual draft class. 21st of the 2023 draft by wAV.

Trending down lately but that is also the most likely to change over time. For instance, a few more years and Shaq is likely to ascend much closer to #26 as a few guys ahead of him are out of the league.

From OP: Using PFR's weighted Approximate Value.

This was spawned by looking up how Shaq Thompson stacked up in the 2015 draft. Using PFR's weighted Approximate Value. 2023: Bryce Young, Drafted #1, Ranked #21 2022: Ikem Ekwonu, Drafted #6, Ranked #27 2021: Jaycee Horn, Drafted #8, Ranked #89 2020: Derrick Brown, Drafted #7, Ranked #17 2019: Brian Burns, Drafted #16, Ranked #16 2018: DJ Moore, Drafted #24, Ranked #11 2017: Christian McCaffery, Drafted #8, Ranked #4 2016: Vernon Butler, Drafted #30, Ranked #103 2015: Shaq Thompson, Drafted #25, Ranked #33 2014: Kelvin Benjamin, Drafted #28, Ranked #78

If you look up the 2015 Draft on Pro Football Reference and sort by Weighted AV, he would be(so far) the 33rd best player in the draft. So, basically very slightly less valuable than where he was drafted. That's probably about accurate. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/draft.htm

Speaking of underappreciated Panthers.

Yeah, this is a preseason/offseason take. We will see what the actuality of the situation is after the season is completed.

Hey, I hope I'm wrong too. I wish I didn't believe this either. As I have stated many times, I am at peace with how terrible we are now. I just want some evidence this season that we can change it and are changing it. It's an insanely low bar but that's basically where we are as a franchise.

We THINK we have upgraded at offensive playcalling. We HOPE that is the case. One week from now we finally get a chance to see if that might be the case.

Poo for effect. Excellent analysis.