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Everything posted by CRA
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to clarify I am not referring to Will Levis. Not knowingly. I just made that up and tried to use a reasonable guesstimate of what else was done. That sounded in the ballpark. At one time I did look it all up and there were several teams that had much more successful days downfield. If that happened to be Levis' actual numbers than it's more of a lucky coincidence. If memory serves, it wasn't just Will Levis that brought the claim into question, it was SEVERAL teams had better days. and you are missing my entire point of the subjective nature of it all. If PFF employee Doug watched Bryce's film and then used his same unique subjective vantage point to grade all 31 other starting QBs. Then dumped into into a spread sheet, it would a subjective Doug take but at least it would be a level uniform subjectivity. The grades are done by various people. All watching and applying their own subjective view to a play. Everyone isn't going to grade incompletions out the same. Or completions. So when you dump it all into a spread sheet and hit sort.....it's not actually a statement of fact as portrayed. Which is why you sometimes get some head scratching stuff. I'm not reframing anything. I don't think. I just wasn't going to look it all back up so I was talking vaguely off the general issue I have with PFF and treating any random claim they make as the truth.
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I didn't think underrated was the wildest statement. The passing and offensive command he showed in week 18 against Atlanta was as good as any QB that has ever played for this franchise. I mean THAT part is wild. Which plays into the overrated part. End of regulation I don't think he even hit 200 yards passing. I mean he had a very efficient day vs a weak defense. As good as we have ever seen in Carolina?
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I mean, yes, there is a difference between looking at a box score and watching film. But PFF has a big subjective aspect to some of their grades. That's how you get a 2/4 being better than 3/5 with a TD. You aren't using stats at that point or factual events, but subjective analysis of plays. And it's not like it is the same subjective analysis applying across all the players. Same guy grading BY's incompletions (which are putting him over the top) isn't grading everyone else's incompletions and completions. So it's different subjective takes/viewpoints applied. There is no way everyone at PFF views grading out a play the same. Then it all dumps into the same spreadsheet. Hit the sort button. Sometimes I feel it gets really weird and and collective data starts saying some weird stuff that just isn't true.
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PFF is the weirdest good bad thing out there. I mean, they will make these statements about player X was the best week 1 at doing Y. But I swear it often makes no sense how they actually get to some of their statements/conclusions. Feels like everyone on their team is using different standards (subjective takes) and you end up with things that make little sense when you bring it all together. Like even some of the hot takes of Bryce was the best deep passer in week whatever. Ok, but then you look around that week and it makes no sense how they get to that statement. Bryce might be 2/4. Meanwhile someone else goes 3/5 with a bomb touchdown and they deem that worse.
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I'm just saying if my destination is 8 wins. I would rather watch Jake get me there than Teddy.
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yeah, I mean, sign me up for Peyton Manning all day. but if I got to pick between Teddy and Jake? Give me Jake. I'll side w/ entertaining over sensible if they both lead to the same final destination.
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I still see two sides to that coin. Jake Delhomme and Teddy Bridgewater. Some QBs are looking for that play, some aren't. It's DNA. Downfield gamblers are just a thing. So are check-down QBs. You make both do the opposite of their DNA. But both remain distinctly different types of QB that are what they are. And there of course is a middle ground to all that too. BY clearly is never going to look at the pass game the way Russell Wilson does. And heck some coaches need a gunslinger. John Fox for example. John Fox frankly needed to be paired w/ a QB that probably was making a lot of throws he never wanted took in the first place...because his natural tendency as a coach was probably to be too safe/conservative.
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I think it was merely a poorly run org that hate taken tons of heat taking the consensus saftest pick/highest floor. And I think it was all Tepper/Fitterer. Safe excitement. But they didn't realize it's only safe if you are catering to what BY does well....and they had just hired Frank Reich lol.
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I was all in on the Bryce move at first. They claimed they drafted a high IQ PG. Not my preference but okay. But it became evident before a preseason snap was taken....Carolina didn't know what a high IQ PG type does and what they had to so here. Just retread Frank and asking Bryce to be a "traditional QB" and adding some very traditional band aid types. We didn't have the scheme or playmakers for that type QB to have success. Which was the 2023 disaster. I think 2024 in large was just a couple random games here and there. I mean, play anyone enough at some point there will be some law of averages good that will eventually mix in. We still aren't built for what we drafted in BY. Hunter Renfrow, Tmac, and Horn are actually are the first players I have though sort of aligned with the types you need around BY. But Canales doesn't really fit that. Or at least his coaching tree/history is not about that type play. But I like Dave. I just don't think he is creative enough and I think he sort of said that before about how he goes about things. I still think Dave's ideal QB is more Jake Delhomme than BY.
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I mean, there are old threads that go into the deep bomb foundation of Wilson in Seattle, Geno's comeback and Baker's success in Tampa. All kinds of old statistical dives into the deep ball for those QBs and their success. The chunk ball downfield is the common denominator of all that. League leading stuff. Bunch of old deep dives on that when we hired Dave. Bryce runs much closer to being the polar opposite of what those guys found success doing w/ their arm and style. I mean, Bryce is nothing like Wilson the passer . You could find some comparison in wiggle and extending plays but not what they do with the ball and their passing style. Russell Wilson was only a comp in the fact they were short, got some creative wiggle to extend plays and stuff. Baker got that too to a lesser degree. Those QBs aren't comps in terms of the actual pass games or mindsets. Heck, Russell spent most of his career w/ a gigantic rabbits foot up his rear end. Wilson was a huge gambler and LOVED the deep ball downfield. Even washed Russ loves his moon ball.
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DJU was bad. But he also just flat out never fit Clemson's offensive scheme and that was the BIGGEST issue. It was always round peg/square hole. DJU didn't fit the mold of what Clemson does offensively. And love them or hate them, Clemson does what Clemson does. DJU never officially got benched. But in practical terms they did finally bench him for the ACC Championship Game and Cade made a big difference then. Always felt like over loyal Dabo had made him a promise that he would never bench him (DJU technically did everything the right way). Which would have been very Dabo-ish. DJU officially got every game he was at Clemson. Dabo pulled the trigger after the first possession in the ACC Title Game and it was largely understood DJU was done there (his side wanted out). Agreement met I guess. but I always said, DJU felt like a throw back traditional QB being asked to run college junk while at Clemson.
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I mean, the Giants suck. Don't get me wrong. Neither of us have much. They got the best player as of right now on both sides of the ball though.
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If you were to take the Time Machine back though.. DeVante Adams had less yards, less TDs, and a HIGHER drop % than XL as a rookie with prime Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball to him. DeVante Adams was never going to be “DeVante Adams” either. Adams had a rough start to the NFL. In fact his next year was worse than his rookie year…and was regarded as one of the worst WRs playing in the NFL. people forget that journey to the top. One of the best dig yourself out of the grave stories of the last couple decades given he made it to largely being regarded as the best in the business. *not saying it happens with XL, but DeVante is an example of why you don’t count someone out, not one of why someone is hopeless.
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It's his time in Tampa and all his time in Seattle. And what he did in Tampa was very similar to what they did in Seattle. And many supported XL because he fit into what Canales has always did and been about everywhere. It's deep passing. It's chunk plays. Everything he has been about. and then Carolina moved on from BY in just 2 short weeks. The one thing that didn't fit what Dave did. And it was done. Over. No one, no one could of predicted how BY messed up their vision/plan last year when they basically were forced to put him back in. I mean, that is what happened. I still contend I was cool with BY. But you got to be all in on that. We never were from the very start. I was cool with Canales. But be all in on that brand of football. I don't like no man's land and random parts and "making it work". That's been the approach that got us to being the worst org in all of pro sports.
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well, my position hasn't changed since right before we drafted XL. It only made sense if you were moving away from BY and going all in on what Seattle and Tampa did in the pass game. If they weren't, you needed a different type of WR in that draft.
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it's not even about a better QB. It's about fit, offensive scheme and what you are asking and expecting out of folks. That how you get success. where you land matters in the NFL. It's one of the most important aspects of success. We all knew XL wouldn't fit a BY offense. He fit the classic Canales one. And we simply do not throw those balls. And those balls are not about being a polished WR. The ones BY throws are.
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I mean, when we were talking about that draft...I think most conceded XL fit the classic mold of the Canales tree and we wouldn't really start to max that pick until BY was replaced (and most assumed that was the likely outcome). And it basically played out exactly how we thought. Until it didn't. But yeah, 100%. The day we drafted BY I started screaming for a great slot WR (which isn't slow AT) and a great rec RB. That was the easiest way to start maxing BY's skill set. We didn't do that. In fact, we went out and spent a boatload on one of the worst rec RBs in the NFL in Sanders. BY needs YAC players. And a YAC offense. Football doesn't have to be as hard as Carolina makes it. my position was always clear. I'm cool w/ BY pending we attempted a BY offense. I'm cool w/ Canales pending we move on from BY. Instead we get this inbetween whatever. The no man's land and not being all in on a direction is what I detest and that is largely my collective irritation with the org for some time.
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Fun fact Puca Nucua had basically an identical drop % his rookie year as XL. Rookies drop passes. And you can look at XLs entire draft class for confirmation that it is normal. The biggest issue for XL....we don't throw the ball in a manner to max his usefulness and potential given we have BY as a QB. We drafted him to do X. We don't do X. When we drafted him, it was basically universally agreed he was to be a DK Metcalf/Mike Evans to chunk it downfield to that fix Canales' deep chunk ball O (which is his tree). Which again brings me back to Carolina's biggest problem in Tepper. The random parts theory. We consistently put things together that contradict. I think they tried to solve that in quick fashion last year. Bryce is really the puzzle piece that didn't fit. They moved on. Quick. He was done. Then BY sort of screwed the entire plan up. Now I think we are back to man's land. We got a head coach that at his core does X. He spent his first draft pick to do X. Then BY muddied up the works. So they went right back to the draft and got a BY WR in Tmac.
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I haven't even tried to keep up w/ all those changes. I get all the teams mixed up conference wise now. Maybe that will be a good things then. Because the PAC12 did us dirty in the top 2 rounds. And sometimes they even gave us some fools gold before pulling that rug. Especially Colbert and Carruth. and I was high as Jarrett coming in. That is the pick I got the most wrong of all the wrong ones.
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BY at the end of 2024 didn't look like BY at the start of 2023. There was undeniable improvement few could see coming. that said, Carolina in 2024 was still a very bad landing spot for a rookie WR. We had bad QB play still in 2024. So when bashing WRs, you still have to factor they have been setup to fail coming into the league by Carolina drafting them. I was a LOUD XL advocate. But even when I was doing that I always put a disclaimer on basically every single post. I wanted XL under the pretext we would be moving on with Bryce Young. Leading into that draft it was always obvious XL did not pair up with BY. I was 100% certain we would move on from BY fairly quickly and we did just that. No one saw that rise from the dead and IMO that wasn't in the Carolina plans.
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I have PAC12 WR trauma as a Panther fan when we go there in the top 2 rounds.
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how this dude was able to get on a roster for even a chance is mindblowing. I have never been more wrong on a college football take in all my life than DJU. I still can't wrap my head around how he can go from his college debut game.....to being what he was/is.
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TMJ and Mingo combined for 0 zero TDs there rookie year. XL got into the endzone 4 times. And again, people are distorting his situation with what games of BY they choose to remember and erase from their memory. XL in large part played with really bad QB play on the season. Like league bottom QB play on the year. Coleman, Worthy, Mitchell etc. all had pretty comparable rookie years and were in better better spots. Ladd plays slot (easiest life with a very good young PB QB) Does he need to show growth? 100000%. I just think the collective huddle is going way to hard on him and probably is way to high on Coker present day.
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I still feel the XL hate is way over the top. People are acting like he just put up the WR version of Bryce's rookie year. Did he have a high drop %? Sure. That needs to be fixed. But literally every rookie in his class that plays on the outside did too last year. And XL landed in one of the worst passing Os in the NFL with questionable QB play. It was also said by many here when we drafted him that if we stayed the BY route.....it wasn't really going be an ideal setup for XL given BY style and what XL was. I do think XL setups up to highlight peak huddling. As in, all it takes is one good game this weekend and the board will swing the other way on him. I do think he has the highest homerun potential on this O.
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Norman did play though. He was super bad early in his career