Divisional Playoff WIN vs. Seattle - Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

How great is it to be a Panthers fan this year!!!!  That first half yesterday was just AMAZING!!!  How rare is it to get the thrill of total domination and the agony and excitement of heart-stopping suspense in the same game?!?  I'm so glad I got to be here in Charlotte for this game.  Sad I won't be here to attend the NFCCG.  I begin my travels back to Africa on Thursday... (I'll be in NY with friends over the weekend, but will be back in Africa for the Superbowl...)

Next up, the first-ever NFCCG played in Charlotte!!!!  Fantastic!!  GO PANTHERS, KEEP POUNDING!

Here's a thread to capture the game, and review some analysis and stats that shed light on our win...  I hope others will join in to contribute insights, stats, and links to good articles with analysis of the game...  I've got the gamebook downloaded, and hope I can do some stats review & charts, but not sure about how much time I'll have...

[KB_fan]

I'll start this thread with an excerpt from Peter King's MMQB.   It seems fitting somehow...  I remember when he visited Spartanburg during training camp, and all the hate many voiced towards him.  Yet, he's been writing some great features on the Panthers this year, and his articles are filled with respect this season.  I've come to enjoy his writing in a way I never expected.  Big surprise...  kind of like how the Panthers have surprised so many this season and finally begun to earn some overdue respect.

Besides... you'll all love what King has to say about the crowd at BoA yesterday!

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/01/18/cardinals-packers-hail-mary-coin-flip-nfl-divisional-playoffs

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1. I think this is what I liked about the divisional weekend:

a. The Carolina offensive line. Much better group than anyone thought it would be at the start of the year. Really good job by line coach John Matsko with than group.

b. Carolina offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s first-half play-calling, which always found the hole in the Seattle D.

c. The most perfect half in the Rivera Era: 31 points against what has been the stingiest scoring defense in football for the past three years. In fairness, Russell Wilson handed Carolina a pick-six and a short field on another interception. But still, 31-zip on the two-time defending conference champs? Big.

d. The noise in Carolina. Really surprising to me. Never heard it like that before.

 

He also had this to say about the play of our Dline - including them in his "players of the week" awards:

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Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei, defensive tackles; Mario Addison, defensive end, Carolina. Their stats stunk—in fact, Addison had zero tackles—but I picked them to represent the tone set in the first half, when Carolina broke out to an insurmountable 31-0 lead … and Seattle’s six possessions ended in two punts, two Russell Wilson picks, a failed fourth-down conversion and a missed field goal. It happened from the first Seahawk offensive snap of the day. On that play, Lotulelei burst through the line and stoned Marshawn Lynch on Lynch’s first carry in two months; loss of three. Tone set. On the next snap, Short did what he’s been doing all year—he created havoc in the backfield by pressuring and corralling Wilson, forcing an interception that Luke Kuechly returned for a touchdown. On the first Seattle play after Carolina went up 21-0, Addison hurried Wilson into another interception at the Seahawk 29; soon it was 24-0. And Seattle just couldn’t catch up, as gallantly as the Seahawks tried in the second half.

It's a good reminder that stats alone can't always capture a win....

[KB_fan]

Via BBR.. Bill Voth put together a GREAT pre-game version of Stats & Superlatives, showing how closely matched Carolina & Seattle were in many categories... noting that something would have to give.

http://blackandbluereview.com/stats-and-superlatives-somethings-gotta-give/

Here's an excerpt.  Truly it was a great matchup, and did make the win VERY sweet.

SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE

Panthers have won a league-best 11 straight home games.
Seahawks have won a franchise-record six straight road games.

Panthers outscored home opponents, 264-136.
Seahawks have outscored their past six road opponents, 152-43.

Panthers were 1st in scoring.
Seahawks were 1st in scoring defense.

Seahawks were 1st in rushing defense.
Panthers were 2nd in rushing offense.

Seahawks were 3rd in rushing offense.
Panthers were 4th in rushing defense.

Panthers tied for 3rd with 35 touchdown passes.
Seahawks were 1st with 14 passing touchdown passes allowed.

Panthers were 2nd in turning red-zone trips into touchdowns (68.3 percent).
Seahawks were 3rd in stopping teams from scoring touchdowns in the red zone (42.1 percent).

Panthers were 1st with 39 takeaways.
Seahawks had 3rd-fewest turnovers with 16.

Panthers were 1st with 24 interceptions.
Seahawks threw the third-fewest interceptions with eight.

[KB_fan]

Here are the stats & superlatives from yesterday's game:

http://blackandbluereview.com/stats-and-superlatives-panthers-seahawks-divisional-playoff/

Here's a portion.  How awesome that we scored so much in the 1st quarter after NEVER scoring more than 3 in the 1st Q against Seattle previously.  I've bolded some of the stats I thought were really key:

 

 

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Stats and Superlatives: Panthers Sweep Seahawks

January 17, 2016  Bill Voth

THE PANTHERS:

 

Advanced to their fourth NFC Championship.

Will host the NFC Championship for the first time.

Put up the most points they’ve ever scored against Seattle. Their 27 points in Week 6 was the previous high.

Scored on their first possession for the 10th time in 17 games this season (5th TD).

Scored 14 points in the first 3:22. In their previous five meetings with Seattle, the Panthers totaled just three points in the [first] quarter.

Scored 31 pts in the first half for the second time this season. That’s a team record for most points scored in the first half.

Went 3-for-3 in the red zone. In two games against Seattle this season, the Panthers went 6-for-6 inside the 20-yard line.

Racked up five sacks after totaling just four in their past two games. Their five sacks tied a team record for the most in a playoff game.

Extended their league-best home-win streak to 12.

 

THE SEAHAWKS:

 

Allowed three defensive [Panthers offense/Seattle defense] touchdowns. The Seahawks’ defense allowed one touchdown in its previous six road games.

Allowed 144 rushing yards after allowing a combined 85 yards on the ground in their past two games.

Allowed a 15-play drive that took up 8:44, the longest drive they allowed this season.

Had their franchise-best six-game road-win streak snapped at six.

 

PANTHERS:

 

RB Jonathan Stewart

Rushed for 106 yards, becoming the first player to rush for 100 yards against the Seahawks in 28 games (including playoffs).

Had the third-longest rush of his career. The 59-yard gain on the Pathers’ was the longest rush allowed by the Seahawks this season.

TE Greg Olsen

Caught all six of his targets for 77 yards and a touchdown.

In two games against Seattle this season, Olsen totaled 13 receptions, 208 yards and two touchdowns.

DE Charles Johnson

Was credited with his first sack since Week 1.

DT Dwan Edwards

Earned his first sack since Week 2.

CB Josh Norman

Picked up his first career sack.

 

 

[KB_fan]

Not really stats or analysis, but while I'm linking good stuff from BBR, here are the game quotes which Bill Voth compiled:

http://blackandbluereview.com/quotes-to-note-panthers-seahawks-divisional-round/

My favorite... Cam's "message to the fans"

RE: Message to fans for next week.
“Whatever you guys did today, do it again times 2, 3,4,5,6,7 … They say to get something that you never got you have to do something you’ve never done. For us, we’ve never had that vibe in the streets of Charlotte and I expect nothing less than what we saw today. It was an unbelievable atmosphere. Seeing a bunch of white towels flying around. Our guys playing with so much enthusiasm, that’s the thing about playoff football. I was describing to my family yesterday while watching the Patriots game and the cameras panned the fans, you don’t get that Week 2, Week 4, Week 16. It’s just something different when you’re playing in a playoff game. It brings a different type of aura to the game.”

 

 

[KB_fan]

Here's the NFL.com game recap:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016011700/2015/POST19/seahawks@panthers#menu=gameinfo&tab=recap&recap=fullstory

and their takeaways:  I've bolded some of my favorite lines.  "comprehensive dismantling of an inferior opponent from the opening snap"!!!!!  Lovin' it!

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000624713/article/twenty-things-we-learned-from-divisional-round

1. Reminiscent of Seattle's blowout of Denver in Super Bowl XLVIII, the first half was a comprehensive dismantling of an inferior opponent from the opening snap, when Jonathan Stewart broke through the second level of the Seahawks' defense for a 59-yard run. Defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short -- the "hog mollies" targeted by general manager Dave Gettleman in the first two rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft -- took over from there, dominating the line of scrimmage and forcing Russell Wilson's pick-six to Luke Kuechly. The Panthers controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, with offensive coordinator Mike Shula and defensive coordinator Sean McDermott painting masterpieces with their scheming and play-calling.

 After nearly blowing big leads against the Colts, Packers and Giants, coach Ron Rivera conceded his biggest concern was his team's ability to finish games. That was an issue again on Sunday, as Wilson tossed three second-half touchdown passes against a sleepwalking Carolina squad with one eye on the ticking clock for the final 30 minutes. The Panthers needed Thomas Davis to field an onside kick to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands with a chance to tie in the game's final minute. Rivera will be sure to drive that point home in lead-up to next week's clash with an Arizona Cardinals club that can light up the scoreboard with any in the league.

2. The Seahawks will point to the time zone and poor footing for their slow start. The condition of the field forced many Seattle players to change cleats after the opening drive. To their credit, they did not tap out in the second half despite the 31-point halftime deficit. The story of the afternoon, though, was a dominant 15-1 Carolina team imposing its will in all facets of the game.

3. Buoyed by that 59-yard run on the opening drive, Stewart became the first back to rush for at least 100 yards against the Seahawks' defense in 27 games. The Panthers' decision to hold their hard-charging power back out of the final three regular season games paid off, as Stewart looked as fresh as he has all season, despite tweaking his foot early in the game. Powered by an underrated offensive line, Carolina has the strongest, most consistent and most creative ground attack in the NFL, topping 100 yards in 30 consecutive games.

4. If this was the end of the Marshawn Lynch era in Seattle, it was an anti-climactic encore. Lynch was bottled up to the tune of 20 yards on six carries. He has looked a step slower all season and had trouble making defenders miss in open space. Lynch turns 30 years old in April and carries an $11.5 million salary-cap hit for the 2016 season. The Seahawks can feel good about turning this backfield over to dynamic rookie Thomas Rawls, who outplayed Lynch throughout the season.

5. Cam Newton's mechanics lapsed a few times in an unproductive second half, but he missed just six throws all day. His 19-yard, second-quarter touchdown pass to Greg Olsen was a textbook example of throwing a receiver open in cramped quarters. Newton's ball placement was impeccable on the throw, allowing Olsen to make a brilliant catch. The most improved passer in the NFL this season, Newton has 27 touchdowns versus three interceptions since Week 9.

 

[KB_fan]

Also at NFL.com, the game analysis begins with this very fun section:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000624645/article/carolina-panthers-dismiss-doubters-in-win-over-seahawks

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Lots of football teams play the disrespect card, but let's be honest -- plenty of people were waiting for the other shoe to drop on the 15-1 Carolina Panthers.

You know it. I know it.

Mostly, they know it.

And so on Sunday, that shoe became a boot, and the only place it dropped was squarely in the rear ends of the two-time defending conference champion Seattle Seahawks. The Panthers beat them on the ground (144 yards rushing). They beat them through the air (Cam Newton posted a tidy 108.3 passer rating). They beat them up front. They beat back their comeback, and beat them in a different way than they beat them before.

Carolina beat them, and beat them, and beat them until what was happening out there was impossible for those who have been missing what's going on down here to miss it any longer. Asked as he jogged triumphantly off the field if his team had felt overlooked, first-team All-Pro corner Josh Norman smiled: "Yeah. Yup. Look at the score, though."

Panthers, 31-24. Panthers, 16-1. Panthers hosting the NFC title game next Sunday.

That's all the validation they need.

 

 

[KB_fan]

Gonna be posting some of the tweets re: the game (both during & after) soon..., but this just popped up on my feed, and I need to post it, because Norwell is one of the huge unsung heroes of the game.

Thankfully he's not an unsung hero to his teammates or coaches.  Ron spent a good chunk of time in today's press conference praising Norwell's 3 blocks in the 1st play that set up Stew's 59 yard run:

 

Black & Blue Review ‏@BlackBlueReview 1m1 minute ago

Andrew Norwell on Stewart's long run, when Norwell blocked 3 guys: "It just happened that way. They just kind of fell in my lap."

 

Luke said something very similar about his Pick 6....

Love the humility of so many of our great players. 

[KB_fan]

PFF grades:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/17/pro-sea-car-grades-luke-kuechly-kawann-short-star-in-panthers-win/

Carolina Panthers

–This wasn’t the Cam Newton (+1.8) we’ve become accustomed to seeing this year. While he and Wilson earned similar grades, how the two QBs achieved it couldn’t have been any different. Outside of a fine touchdown pass to tight end Greg Olsen, Newton kept things very simple. His running threat neutralized by the Seattle defense, he prioritized avoiding mistakes that would allow Seattle back into the game. Indeed, it was a selfless display that was rewarded with a critical victory.

–You don’t win PFF’s “Night Train” Lane award for the best coverage defender in the NFL without making some pretty spectacular plays. Linebacker Luke Kuechly (+4.1) did exactly that in this one, with a pick-six and a stunning pass break-up highlighting what a unique talent Kuechly is.

–Speaking of unique talents, Sunday was another day for defensive tackle Kawann Short (+5.1) to demonstrate just how explosive he is. Rushing the passer more than any other Panther, his motor never let up and he got up close and personal with Russell Wilson on a number of occasions. All told, he produced a seven-disruption day (one sack, two hits and four hurries).

Top-graded players:

DT Kawann Short (+5.1)

LB Luke Kuechly (+4.1)

DE Jared Allen (+3.6)

TE Greg Olsen (+4.1)

S Roman Harper (+3.0)

[KB_fan]

Also at PFF, a preview of the NFCCG vs. Arizona...  I'll hope to do a separate game preview thread, but this analysis of Greg Olsen's game yesterday was great.  I knew Greg had caught all of his targets, but I didn't realize that all were for 1st downs (and a TD).  WOW Greg, WOW!!!

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/18/pro-everything-you-need-to-know-for-cardinals-panthers/

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The Cam Newton-to-Greg Olsen connection was the key difference-maker in Carolina’s win over Seattle, much as it has been all season. While Newton (87.0) didn’t need to do much, he still had a positively graded game. He had some beautiful passes (including the touchdown to Olsen) mixed in with some off-target ones. But it was Olsen (84.3) that stole the show. He caught all six throws tossed his way for 77 yards and a touchdown. Even more importantly, all six catches went for first downs, which included two third-down catches in the fourth quarter that allowed the Panthers to keep running the clock and hold on for the win.

Also, this analysis of our pass rush was encouraging:

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The Panthers pass rush had a big-time game against the Seahawks — one of the key factors that led to their victory. To nobody’s surprise, they were led by defensive tackle Kawaan Short (91.3), who had a sack, two hits and four hurries, resulting in the team’s highest pass-rush grade of the game. Defensive end Jared Allen (74.9) chipped in with three hits and four hurries, but he’ll likely miss the rest of the playoffs with a fractured foot. Overall, the Panthers defense had 10 different players record a pressure, and finished with five sacks, eight hits and 14 hurries. 

I love that we don't rely on just one guy to get the pressure, though as one analyst wrote (I forget who / where) "We are watching KK turn into a superstar before our very eyes"   YES!!!!!  Gettlemagic.  It was great to see Star also have a very solid game, and hey, even CJ seems to have been credited with a sack. (At least by the team's coaches, I've not yet checked the official gamebook stats...)

[KB_fan]

Continuing with more of the PFF analysis of yesterday's game included in their CAR vs AZ preview...

They note very concerning stats about our Secondary yesterday.  We all knew this was likely to be a weakness with Bene & Peanut out... here are the ugly stats:

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The Panthers secondary had a tough time in coverage on Sunday, something fairly out-of-the-norm for the unit. The Seahawks attacked cornerback Robert McClain (45.8) to the tune of 14 targets. He allowed seven receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown, but was cleanly beat on three of those misses, including one that would’ve been a touchdown. All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman (83.0) didn’t have his best game, either, allowing all five targets he saw to be completed for 57 yards and a touchdown. But nobody struggled as much as safety Kurt Coleman (80.3), who allowed 6 of 7 for 93 yards and a touchdown in primary coverage, and finished with a team low -4.2 coverage grade.

 

[KB_fan]

Some of Darin Gantt's tweets yesterday were awesome.  Here are a few to capture some of the social media stuff as the game evolved...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gotta love these 1st half stats:

 

 

 

 

Even though this was tweeted during the 3rd quarter as the Seahawks' comeback attempt gained steam., this may have been one of my favorite tweets of the day, with a great reference to the snow-flurry-induced panic earlier in the day in Charlotte... LOL:

 

And two final Gantt tweets:

 

 

 

 

[KB_fan]

Mike Shula named his "unsung heroes" - certainly agree that Tolbert fumble recovery was HUGE HUGE HUGE

Max Henson ‏@PanthersMax 15m15 minutes ago

Mike Shula's unsung heroes: Dickson, Cotchery, Tolbert. That fumble recovery by Tolbert yesterday is biggest play no one is talking about.

[KB_fan]

Nice appreciation for Stew in the Panthers.com game analysis:

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/What-We-Learned-Panthers-vs-Seahawks/bb5be16d-d8bd-4a8c-a9fe-d8996cb21ffc

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2. STEW SETS TONE IN RETURN: Jonathan Stewart missed out on a 1,000-yard rushing season by 11 yards after missing the last three games with a foot injury, but he achieved a different rare round number Sunday.

Stewart became the first player to rush for 100 yards against Seattle in the last 27 games, going for 106 on 19 carries with two touchdowns. Back in Week 11 of the 2014 season, Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles gained 159 yards against the Seahawks.

"Credit to my offensive line. They did a good job of blocking up front and pretty much got me that – especially on that first run," said Stewart, who broke off a 59-yard run on Carolina’s first play and his first touch since Dec. 13. "We pride ourselves on being a physical team, and I feel like we did our job today."

The offensive line loves blocking for Stewart.

"Stew was a tone-setter for us. He set it on the first play," guard Trai Turner said. "Just get a hat on a hat and let 28 run. That’s what he did."

 

And the team and players continue to express how HUGE the fan support has been....

5. FAN-TASTIC SUPPORT: A couple of times during Sunday’s game, there were tremors in the press box from fans up above going crazy, something one long-time employee of the team had never experienced.

"That’s our edge. Coming into the playoffs, we knew the best things we had going for us were the fans at Bank of America Stadium," quarterback Cam Newton said. "We’ve been to a lot of places, and at the end of the day nothing compares. Fans are giving us every single thing they have, and it pays off."

Tight end Greg Olsen also appreciated the support and was glad the team could reward fans by making possible the first NFC Championship ever held at the stadium.

"What a great feeling for our team to host playoff games back-to-back years, and now the Super Bowl goes through us. Our fans deserve that," Olsen said. "Our fans should be excited. I don't know how much is going to get accomplished over the next week around Charlotte. It’s special. We’re one home game away from the Super Bowl. Every single team would sign up for that before the season started."