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The CBO nails another financial projection


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#1 pstall

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:16 PM

From the guys who brought you projected savings of the new health care bill. They give you social security projections. Keep in mind, the ss projectons were MUCH MUCH MUCH easier to project based on the history and employment #'s.

This year, the system will pay out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes, an important threshold it was not expected to cross until at least 2016, according to the Congressional Budget Office.


The problem, he said, is that payments have risen more than expected during the downturn, because jobs disappeared and people applied for benefits sooner than they had planned. At the same time, the program’s revenue has fallen sharply, because there are fewer paychecks to tax.


Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office’s projection shows the ravages of the recession easing in the next few years, with small surpluses reappearing briefly in 2014 and 2015.

After that, demographic forces are expected to overtake the fund, as more and more baby boomers leave the work force, stop paying into the program and start collecting their benefits. At that point, outlays will exceed revenue every year, no matter how well the economy performs.



#2 Kral

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:21 PM

The solution is to kill the baby boomers.

#3 mr beauxjangles

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:26 PM

death panels ftw!

#4 Jangler

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:27 PM

Death Panels will take care of that.

#5 Jase

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:28 PM

Death Panel or Beth Daniel?

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#6 pstall

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:30 PM

Wood Panels? Made of bamboo? Hmm..double win

#7 Delhommey

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:32 PM

The solution is to kill the baby boomers.

a-MEN.

There's some great people in there, obviously, but otherwise what a horrible generation overall. Bunch of needy, whiny, self-entitled brats.

#8 Jase

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:34 PM

a-MEN.

There's some great people in there, obviously, but otherwise what a horrible generation overall. Bunch of needy, whiny, self-entitled brats.


I thought that was the stigma of the Gen Xer.

#9 Carolina Husker

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:35 PM

I never planned to see a dime of SS money, so this isn't as depressing to me as it should be.

#10 Kral

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:35 PM

I thought that was the stigma of the Gen Xer.


They just got it passed down to them once the baby boomers took control.

#11 pstall

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:37 PM

I never planned to see a dime of SS money, so this isn't as depressing to me as it should be.


Oh my first job out of high school in the *cough* 80's I knew then not to bank on SS.
The point is the CBO and "projections". :grouphug:

#12 Carolina Husker

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 03:50 PM

Yep.

#13 mr beauxjangles

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 04:05 PM

Oh my first job out of high school in the *cough* 80's I knew then not to bank on SS.
The point is the CBO and "projections". :grouphug:


Yeah, it's pretty sad, but I would think that you of all people on this board would understand that the biggest recession in six decades and the multitude of structural changes that came with it can easily throw a model off...

#14 pstall

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 04:48 PM

Yeah, it's pretty sad, but I would think that you of all people on this board would understand that the biggest recession in six decades and the multitude of structural changes that came with it can easily throw a model off...


Totally. That's what I mean. There are the big fat variables that you simply can't account or project for that no matter how many times you run your model, there is that black swan that nobody sees or knows about.

#15 ChucktownK

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Posted 25 March 2010 - 06:16 PM

Death Panel or Beth Daniel?

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NO! Meth Spaniel!




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